What would you pay Geno and for how many years?

[Recon_Hawk]

It's trending towards Dak money.

The handwringing over this stuff is dumb, the salary cap is a joke. The cap can always be finagle'd as long as the owner is willing to put a lot of money into escrow. Skinflint owners hamper teams more than the actual cap.

There are very basic accounting rules in place that make it so that a team cannot "finagle" the cap year after year. A team is able to defer a cap hit through a larger signing bonus or additional void years, but sooner or later the cap hit has to be recongized on your books.

A cheap owner doesn't matter since every team has to average a 95% cap spending each season over a four year span. It's a poor owner that hurts since when a coach/gm wants to create a super team through delayed cap hits, the owner doesn't have the upfront cash to make it work.

 

[renofox]

He is going to create bidding war. Geno Smith isn't like the other one hit wonder QB's i've seen listed here. Guys like Foles only could operate in a specific, limited offense. Geno is running the dominant offensive system of the NFL here in Seattle. Roughly 1/3rd of the NFL use the Shanahan/McVay style of WCO. What Shane Waldron is doing is what many other guys that come from the same system are doing from a schematic standpoint. Carroll/Waldron are running the meta offense of the current day NFL.

In addition to Geno Smith operating the most prolific offense in the NFL at a high level (Shanny/McVay WCO), Smith's individual play pops out. He's making throws that the Foles's and Cassel's of this world could only dream of. Geno is actually throwing his receivers open. Laying a dime in between three defenders where only the player can get it is something he's doing on a weekly basis. That is the sort of throw that only high level QB's can make on a regular basis. This isn't some smoke and mirrors BS. Geno Smith is the real deal right now.

Someone is going to see Smith's tape and try offering him the whole world. Smith is going to get over 30 million a year, easily.

Yes, he is. I appreciate the optimism of the $15-25M crowd, and I would love for them to be right.

But when you see what's being paid to mid-range veteran starters this year and overlay historical salary increases ratioed to cap increases it would not surprise me to see Geno offered $40M+/year with multiple years guaranteed.

 

[renofox]

Whatever we pay Geno, I sincerely hope they've decided whether Lock can be the understudy or they draft a guy. With QBs I hate when teams put everything into just one guy. Why can't we follow Green Bay's formula, mentor the guy on the bench?

I believe they are doing that now with Lock.

Judging by PC's comments, they may even be successful.

It would not surprise me if they draft a rookie to sit and learn, and name Lock the starter next year.

Cap is a lot tighter than people think.

If Lock grows as much as Geno has since being here, he could be a viable option.

 

[pmedic920]

3 year deal in the top 5-10 range

That’s if he finishes out this season in similar fashion

 

[DarkVictory23]

Yes, he is. I appreciate the optimism of the $15-25M crowd, and I would love for them to be right.

But when you see what's being paid to mid-range veteran starters this year and overlay historical salary increases ratioed to cap increases it would not surprise me to see Geno offered $40M+/year with multiple years guaranteed.

I think he has to get at least the equivalent of a Ryan Tannehill if he finishes the season at a similar level to where he is now, which isn't exactly cheap, but not a ridiculous deal either. Tannehill isn't considered a prime Brady or Rodgers but as we have seen with Tennessee's rookie experiment, he's a definite upgrade over most QBs in the league.

Even if you think Geno is a 'system' QB, he's at least an effective, efficient, Tannehill level system QB.

We do have a few things working in our favor that might keep the cost down.

1.) Geno seems to enjoy playing for this team, for this coach, and in this system. That's not nothing even though some people think it is. There are still players who take 'hometown deals'. I get it, Geno is probably going to sign his last big contract but if he's listening to more people than just his agent, he also knows that means he's signing on for the last years of his football playing career.

2.) Geno IS older. That might make some teams hesitant to make any offer more than a couple of years. Thus, if we're willing to do that, we might be able to take some of the yearly amount down by offering more years.

3.) The Russell Wilson effect. This was the biggest splash contract extension in recent NFL history, and it is going down like the Hindenburg. NFL teams have been overpaying like crazy for any QB play that can be described as mediocre or better and the QB is perhaps the most overvalued position in the entire NFL, but the Russ-drama has been seen all over the NFL.

QBs have been overpaid because no team wants to be the one that let their 'HOF franchise QB' get away because they were stingy, but could the sentiment be shifting to no team wants to be the next Denver Broncos? Maybe. Green Bay is in the middle of seeing the exact same issue happen very, very publicly with A-a-ron.

QBs are the most important individual player on a football team but as Denver and Green Bay is learning (and Seattle hopefully learned), if you can't afford to put other weapons around your QB... you are going to be screwed.


That said, NFL Front Offices are all loathe to be the first one to jump on a new paradigm and all it takes is one Exec who still believes they are just a 'QB away' to drive the bidding war.

Seattle should try to keep Geno at any reasonable cost (and Ryan Tannehill's contract seems reasonable to me, adjusted for the new cap rates) but the QB is still only the most important player on one phase of a three-phase game.

 

[QWERTY]

I think he would get paid as Carson Wentz contract.

But If I was the GM, I would say F***K it, go with Lock, and save all that money to get a new Center/Right Guard. and also to get a disruptive DT/DE like Randy Gregory.


Would love a 3rd round/4th round comp pick for Geno.

 

[seabowl]

He is going to create bidding war. Geno Smith isn't like the other one hit wonder QB's i've seen listed here. Guys like Foles only could operate in a specific, limited offense. Geno is running the dominant offensive system of the NFL here in Seattle. Roughly 1/3rd of the NFL use the Shanahan/McVay style of WCO. What Shane Waldron is doing is what many other guys that come from the same system are doing from a schematic standpoint. Carroll/Waldron are running the meta offense of the current day NFL.

In addition to Geno Smith operating the most prolific offense in the NFL at a high level (Shanny/McVay WCO), Smith's individual play pops out. He's making throws that the Foles's and Cassel's of this world could only dream of. Geno is actually throwing his receivers open. Laying a dime in between three defenders where only the player can get it is something he's doing on a weekly basis. That is the sort of throw that only high level QB's can make on a regular basis. This isn't some smoke and mirrors BS. Geno Smith is the real deal right now.

Someone is going to see Smith's tape and try offering him the whole world. Smith is going to get over 30 million a year, easily.

Teams had 9 years to pay him and also some games to evaluate him last year. I can’t make one team that will pay him over $30 mil outside of maybe the Hawks. Not one.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Teams had 9 years to pay him and also some games to evaluate him last year. I can’t make one team that will pay him over $30 mil outside of maybe the Hawks. Not one.

Bit obtuse to actually imply that his value isn't obviously higher now that he's an MVP candidate halfway through the year, no?

If this goes on all year, he will ABSOLUTELY get that offer on the market. No question, not even a little. After decades of relatively good QB play, we may be forgetting what sort of risks teams are willing to take to shore up that position.

 

[seatownlowdown]

Would love a 3rd round/4th round comp pick for Geno.

i could see a scenario where geno is playing for another team next year. but in no world does pc/js let him walk for a comp pick. if they can't initially come to terms, they'll simply franchise him. the only real scenario of him leaving is if after he's franchised he gets traded to a team that wants/needs a top 7 qb, and that therefore nets atleast (1) 1st rounder + a whole lot more draft capital.

but let him walk for a comp pick? man... that's gotta be satire. no?

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

I think Geno wants to be in Seattle and although its very possible the Hawks extend him i would think they wait to see how the season goes. To many questions to be answered...like how will geno play in the pressure of the play offs? I have still not seen him make a game winning drive. I like Geno better than Wilson and i would very much like to see Geno return but i also think saving the contract negotiations till after the draft gives the Hawks more secrecy and stradagy for the draft... i could see the Hawks make a under the table hand shake with Geno then make the league guess who the Hawks are going to draft.

Just my take

 

[Hollandhawk]

I think Geno wants to be in Seattle and although its very possible the Hawks extend him i would think they wait to see how the season goes. To many questions to be answered...like how will geno play in the pressure of the play offs? I have still not seen him make a game winning drive. I like Geno better than Wilson and i would very much like to see Geno return but i also think saving the contract negotiations till after the draft gives the Hawks more secrecy and stradagy for the draft... i could see the Hawks make a under the table hand shake with Geno then make the league guess who the Hawks are going to draft.

Just my take

You don't need a game winning drive if you don't dig a hole for yourself first. Those 3 TD drives after that pick 6 should tell you enough about his mental state.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

There will be lots of teams that are scared off because of Wilson, but not all of them. "Any" team vs "Every" team. ...but JS has a better feel for that dynamic than any of us. I believe some GM/Coach pairs will have the ego to think they can improve Geno. (look at SF, Carolina, Cleveland...). Also, even if they don't believe it, some will sell that scenario to ownership just to save their jobs for a year. That said, I think the best scenario for the Seahawks is to keep Geno under contract and avoid ever finding out his value as a FA.

I don't like it, but I see a real possibility that JS has to use the franchise tag. It further sucks that DWatson pushed that amount up 20 million for '23 (45 mill). If they can't get a 30-35mill/yr+/- deal done in December, I anticipate the tag. JS/PC can't let Geno walk without a replacement in-house. Conversely, Team Geno knows 45mill for 1 year is his baseline. If he's tagged, that allows for further negotiation on a long-term extension/restructure or (if '23 TCamp reveals the draft or FA qbotf) a trade.

Both sides should have some motivation to get a deal done this year to avoid the franchise tag. Team Geno has to be satisfied it's as lucrative as he could get elsewhere but protected long-term from injury. JS has to be comfortable with Cap and ability to bring in competition at the position. I think that puts them at 30-35/yr mostly guaranteed for first 2 years.

I dont think the Seahawks negotiate out of fear... fear of not finding another QB. To me the one thing the wilson trade brought forth is that one man doesnt make the teams success. Some might believe the Hawks got lucky with Geno, i dont believe that. I believe the Hawks have a incredible eye for talent and an incredible eye for who does and does not fit their system and organization.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

You don't need a game winning drive if you don't dig a hole for yourself first. Those 3 TD drives after that pick 6 should tell you enough about his mental state.

Yes you do.. to think that the hawks are NEVER going to have to come from behind in a game or a playoff game is unrealistic. For the record i think Geno will be fine in that regard but there are still unanswered questions surrounding Geno... i would bet he will be in a seahawk uniform but like i say if Geno wants to be in Seattle and the Seahawks want him in Seattle this is absolutly the wrong time to bring his focus off football and on to his contract. They want Geno Hungry and working hard not comfortable with a fat contract...

 

[Lagartixa]

I’d love to see this. I just have trouble giving one guy $40M per year. It has worked out in the past for teams but, isn’t that model shifting?

No team has ever won the Super Bowl with a single player's compensation counting for more than 13.1% of the cap.
If the cap is $225M in 2023, 13.1% of that would be $29.475M.

 

[sutz]

Haven't chimed in yet in this thread. Been some interesting reading and opining. Yeah, the price keeps going up as we win more games. We'll see, I guess. By now, Geno looks like he'll command front line money, barring any major meltdown here on out.

Beginning to look to me to be at least 3 years or so at $30-35 mill per. Not expecting a "home town discount" or anything, but it will be interesting to see how JS structures it.

 

[fire_marshall_bill]

There's noo way he's worth more than 17 to 20 million a year. Remember, Derek Anderson made a Pro Bowl once. If he and his agent balk and walk, so be it.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

 

[chrispy]

Question:
If you were GM right now, would you rather have Deshaun Watson as your QB or Geno Smith?

 

[Lennie]

Irrespective of what happens with Geno’s contract, I think it’s mind blowing that this discussion is happening based on what was expected at the beginning of the year!
who would have even thought Geno Smith and a 40 million dollar salary would even be up for discussion.

 

[seabowl]

Question:
If you were GM right now, would you rather have Deshaun Watson as your QB or Geno Smith?

1000% Watson as a player not a person