What Is Russ' Stats In The Rain? (Prize Involved)

[AROS]

I have been wondering about this long before today's game. I am extremely curious to find out what Russ' record is in wet conditions. I am going out on a short limb to assume he has an average if not losing record.

I even mentioned this pregame to friends. Rain is NOT an advantage in Seattle despite popular belief.

First person who posts factual stats about his record in games where it rains will win a Seahawks-related prize.

 

[calinator]

You'd think a predominantly run-heavy team would be better in these conditions.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

You'd think a predominantly run-heavy team would be better in these conditions.

Yeah, you would think they would actually want to run the ball more during these conditions and keep the opposing running QB off the field.

Out coached again. Smh.

 

[Shanegotyou11]

I have been wondering about this long before today's game. I am extremely curious to find out what Russ' record is in wet conditions. I am going out on a short limb to assume he has an average if not losing record.

I even mentioned this pregame to friends. Rain is NOT an advantage in Seattle despite popular belief.

First person who posts factual stats about his record in games where it rains will win a Seahawks-related prize.

https://sonicscentral.com/peltoncast/20 ... -the-rain/


"Russ and the hawks are 28-11 in the rain and 17 and 2 in dry weather."

Now 28-12.

 

[Shanegotyou11]

I have been wondering about this long before today's game. I am extremely curious to find out what Russ' record is in wet conditions. I am going out on a short limb to assume he has an average if not losing record.

I even mentioned this pregame to friends. Rain is NOT an advantage in Seattle despite popular belief.

First person who posts factual stats about his record in games where it rains will win a Seahawks-related prize.

"Wilson’s 68.1 percent completion percentage under dry conditions would rank second to Drew Brees among NFL quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts since 2012. His 61.7 percent completion percentage in the rain would rank 37th."

 

[AgentDib]

The last metric is highly deceptive because it is comparing Russ in the rain to QB averages in any condition, and we know that all QBs pass the football worse in the rain. Lamar Jackson also had a completion rating below 50% but won the game with his legs. Part of this factor is because WRs perform worse in the rain and tend to have a lot more drops, something to bear in mind when reacting to both the Ravens and Seahawks receivers today. Rather than rain being a Russell Wilson problem I think it is more accurate to say rain worsens all passing offenses.

That being said, rain was clearly a disadvantage today. The Seahawks have a top paid franchise QB who we count on staying in the pocket and throwing great passes downfield. The Ravens have the #1 rushing attack based around a running QB who does most of his damage on the ground with his legs. It shouldn't be a shock to anybody that worsening the passing game affected us more than them.

Our actual win/loss statistics under Pete Carroll bear this out. I went through and counted after the Arizona game and we had won something like 10 out of 11 of his first rain games when we had a great defense and running game, and 2 out of 8 of the last rain games when we had transitioned to putting more focus on QB play. However, we average less than 2 rain games per year so the cons of relying on QB play recently have been outweighed by the pros. I know that we haven't had 40 rain games under Pete Carroll, let alone RW, so the W/L numbers seem dodgy.

Basically, I think we are just slightly unfortunate to have had three rain games already so far this year and for two of them to have been against Alvin Kamara and Lamar Jackson.

 

[Washington49er]

You'd think a predominantly run-heavy team would be better in these conditions.

You'd think a run heavy team from Seattle could handle the rain

 

[hawkfan68]

This season they are 0-2 in games at home when it has rained.

 

[ZagHawk]

This season they are 0-2 in games at home when it has rained.

Would it kill our Hawks to practice in the rain once in a while. You figured the rain should be an advantage for the team...

 

[sutz]

This season they are 0-2 in games at home when it has rained.

Would it kill our Hawks to practice in the rain once in a while. You figured the rain should be an advantage for the team...

I'm pretty sure the outdoor fields at the VMAC are all grass. :229031_shrug:

 

[ZagHawk]

This season they are 0-2 in games at home when it has rained.

Would it kill our Hawks to practice in the rain once in a while. You figured the rain should be an advantage for the team...

I'm pretty sure the outdoor fields at the VMAC are all grass. :229031_shrug:

There's enough money in this franchise to install a turf outdoor field to practice on in the rain. Hell my daughter's elementary school has a turf outdoor soccer field and they are not an NFL Franchise lol. This isnt the first year we've seen our Hawks play surprisingly poorly in the rain vs the competition when Seattle is the home team that lives in a city known for rain.

 

[MarylandHawk]

Russ is going to have a couple of bad games a year. Our problem is, we are invariably going to lose when he does. There is no one else we can lean on.... No defense, no coaching, nothing.

 

[AgentDib]

Russ is going to have a couple of bad games a year. Our problem is, we are invariably going to lose when he does. There is no one else we can lean on.... No defense, no coaching, nothing.

That's kind of how it works in the NFL where the margins are razor thin. Russ is our best and highest paid player by a large margin and if he has an off day then it's going to be a hard game to win. If it makes you feel better you can blame other areas but the opposite team also has a defense and coaches.

 

[AgentDib]

After today the Seahawks are 8-4 with Russ in 12 rain games.
2019 Week 3 - Saints, Rain 63 degrees, L
2019 Week 7 - Ravens, Rain 50 degrees, L
2018 Week 5 - Rams, Rain 53 degrees, L
2017 Week 9 - Redskins, Rain 36 degrees, L
2016 Week 6 - Falcons, Rain 54 degrees, W
2016 Week 11 - Eagles, Rain 54 degrees, W
2014 Week 9 - Raiders, Rain 54 degrees, W
2014 CONF - Packers, Rain 52 degrees, W
2013 Week 3 - Jaguars, Rain 61 degrees, W
2013 DIV - Saints, Rain 48 degrees, W
2012 Week 14 - Cardinals, Rain 48 degrees, W
2012 Week 16 - 49ers, Rain 45 degrees, W

The recent losses along with his stats below explain why people feel the problem is worse than it is.

Russ's completion rating takes a noticeable hit in the rain while his AY/A (adjusted yards per attempt) stays high. This means that he is less accurate on the shorter throws but we take more shots down the field to capitalize on lack of traction in the opposing secondary. That's been effective for the most part as his QB rating with the strategy is identical to playing indoors (which also means it's a road game).

 

[Shanegotyou11]

After today the Seahawks are 8-4 with Russ in 12 rain games.
2019 Week 3 - Saints, Rain 63 degrees, L
2019 Week 7 - Ravens, Rain 50 degrees, L
2018 Week 5 - Rams, Rain 53 degrees, L
2017 Week 9 - Redskins, Rain 36 degrees, L
2016 Week 6 - Falcons, Rain 54 degrees, W
2016 Week 11 - Eagles, Rain 54 degrees, W
2014 Week 9 - Raiders, Rain 54 degrees, W
2014 CONF - Packers, Rain 52 degrees, W
2013 Week 3 - Jaguars, Rain 61 degrees, W
2013 DIV - Saints, Rain 48 degrees, W
2012 Week 14 - Cardinals, Rain 48 degrees, W
2012 Week 16 - 49ers, Rain 45 degrees, W

The recent losses along with his stats below explain why people feel the problem is worse than it is.


Russ's completion rating takes a noticeable hit in the rain while his AY/A (adjusted yards per attempt) stays high. This means that he is less accurate on the shorter throws but we take more shots down the field to capitalize on lack of traction in the opposing secondary. That's been effective for the most part as his QB rating with the strategy is identical to playing indoors (which also means it's a road game).

https://sonicscentral.com/peltoncast/20 ... -the-rain/


So is this wrong??

 

[DomeHawk]

I have been wondering about this long before today's game. I am extremely curious to find out what Russ' record is in wet conditions. I am going out on a short limb to assume he has an average if not losing record.

I even mentioned this pregame to friends. Rain is NOT an advantage in Seattle despite popular belief.

First person who posts factual stats about his record in games where it rains will win a Seahawks-related prize.

"Wilson’s 68.1 percent completion percentage under dry conditions would rank second to Drew Brees among NFL quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts since 2012. His 61.7 percent completion percentage in the rain would rank 37th."

I would have taken 61.7 completion percentage yesterday.

 

[AgentDib]

https://sonicscentral.com/peltoncast/2017/11/08/russell-wilson-in-the-rain/ So is this wrong??

I can't speak to somebody else's numbers but everything is public knowledge. If you disagree on my assessment of a particular day let me know. My filtering criteria was all NFL games Russell has played in where rain was falling during the game. A more advanced look would further refine the data into quarters and compare snap outcomes for each rain quarter against snap outcomes for each dry quarter. I think you'd see an even bigger difference that way.

The dangerous thing about conclusions from this sort of analysis is that it is not relative to other QBs. Russ throws worse in the rain but so does everybody.

 

[Shanegotyou11]

https://sonicscentral.com/peltoncast/2017/11/08/russell-wilson-in-the-rain/ So is this wrong??

I can't speak to somebody else's numbers but everything is public knowledge. If you disagree on my assessment of a particular day let me know. My filtering criteria was all NFL games Russell has played in where rain was falling during the game. A more advanced look would further refine the data into quarters and compare snap outcomes for each rain quarter against snap outcomes for each dry quarter. I think you'd see an even bigger difference that way.

The dangerous thing about conclusions from this sort of analysis is that it is not relative to other QBs. Russ throws worse in the rain but so does everybody.

He broke it down as well. And yes quarterbacks get worse in bad weather.

 

[AROS]

Alright, thanks for the data Agent and Shane...So who gets the prize? :greetingsearthling:

 

[IndyHawk]

Is the prize your chrome SB patch? :lol: