What are your feelings on RoY, EoY, CoY?

[kearly]

Here are mine:

Offensive rookie of the year:

If Wilson wins, justice prevails.
If RG3 wins, no worries. He has a good case for it, and he's a class act.
If Luck wins, I will forever lose respect for the AP and any awards/rankings they hand out.

Prediction: Luck wins.

Who should win it: Russell Wilson. A very good case could be made that he is the best offensive rookie in NFL history.

Defensive rookie of the year:

If Bobby Wagner wins, good for him, but I don't care all that much.
If Luke Kuechly wins, it would be a reminder that tackles are a flawed stat without context.
If Casey Hayward wins, justice prevails.

Prediction: Wagner wins. I bet he gets some Seahawks pity votes from the RG3/Luck crowd.

Who should win it: Casey Hayward. Better player at a more valuable position where talent is harder to find.

Coach of the year:

If Pete Carroll wins it, awesome.
If Mike Smith wins it, I'd be surprised.
If Bruce Arians wins it, I'd be okay with that, but it won't look good in retrospect. As one writer put it, they'd be picking 2001 Dick Jauron over 2001 Bill Belichick all over again.

Prediction: Arians wins. Carroll is clearly the most deserving but the AP has really bought into Indy's story.

Who should win it: Depends on how you define this award. The coach that improved his team the most is Carroll by a huge margin, but nobody got more from less than Arians did.

Executive of the year:

If John Schneider wins it, justice prevails.
If John Elway wins, I'll laugh, cry, then burn an effigy of Woody Paige.
If Ryan Grigson wins... wait seriously? Even Colts fans don't think he should win it.

Prediction: Grigson wins. Or Elway. Either way it will be a GM with some kind of tie to Peyton Manning. Bill Polian has won executive of the year six times. Seriously. I'm not joking.

Who should win it: John Schneider. He won't, but if the voting was held by GMs, he'd run away with it. That said, if Seattle goes 14-2 next year, Schneider could always get this award then and for many years to come.

 

[CFraychineaud]

Kip, do you know when these are supposed to be announced? I remember hearing that the voting would happen before the games this weekend, but I thought the comment (probably in jest) was that it would be announced during the colts/ravens halftime just in time to give Luck the trophy.... =o(

Looking forward to seeing the outcome but think your pretty much on point with your picks. However I disagree with the Casey Hayward pick. Yes he had good stats and plays CB, but he was almost exclusively used in subpackages, and was not an every down player. It would be like giving it to Irvin for leading the rookies in sacks. They usually give it to LBs or DEs that are in every down it seems like for a reason, they affect their team alot more. Wagner and Kuechly both fit that mold alot better than Hayward.

Lets look back at the previous winners...

2011 - Von Miller - Every down LB with great stats and sacks
2010 - Ndamukong Suh - Every down DT with great stats and sacks
2009 - Brian Cushing - Every down LB with a TON of tackles and good stats
2008 - Jerod Mayo - Every down LB ton of tackles and good stats
2007 - Patrick Willis - Every down LB with ton of tackles and great stats
2006 - DeMeco Ryans - Every down LB...
2005 - Shawne Merriman - Every down OLB .... sacks
2004 - Jonathan Vilma - Every down LB .... tackles
2003 - Terrell Suggs - Every down OLB .... sacks
2002 - Julius Peppers - Every down DE.... sacks

We can see a pattern emerging...
last CB to win it was Woodson, and he was an every down shutdown type corner even as a rook

I think its goin to a LB this year...

 

[kearly]

Should be announced right before SB. Supposedly the voting has already happened.

I do not think Hayward will win, I just think he has the smartest case to make. Perhaps I am misinformed, but I was told that Hayward started in 3rd corner situations but was moved to starter during the season. And after looking it up just now, I noticed that he is credited with 7 starts this season. He was very good, and pretty much ran away with PFF's ranking for DRoY and wasn't far behind some of the better corners in the league.

 

[kearly]

bump.

 

[Galen96]

pretty sure John Schneider won EOY... It's not an AP award like COY, ROY, DROY... at least thats my understanding....

 

[12th_Bob]

Lombardi winner=Seahawks, that's all I care about.

I do think it's going to be Griffin, Wagner, Schneider, and Carroll.

 

[HawkWow]

Apparently ROY is meant to be a regular season thing...which I think is insanity. I didn't know this until last nite. My mindset was, after Luck was ousted from the post, that the winner of the Hawk/Skins match-up should win the award. I still think that should be the case...but if I had to bet, I'd bet Griffin wins....unjustly.

 

[Rufus]

Russell Wilson won't win Rookie of the Year, but it doesn't matter... I think he has his sights set on Super Bowl MVP.

He can always win Rookie of the Year next season.

 

[BASF]

I agree with Schneider winning it and probably Wagner, but please make me a case for Wilson winning it over Griffin. I love Russell Wilson. I marked like a teenage girl when we drafted him, literally jumping up and down screaming in jubilation (yes, I am a 38 year old man and I am perfectly comfortable admitting this), but Griffin has better numbers practically across the board. Wilson had more touchdown passes, but a worse touchdown to interception ratio. Griffin also played in one less game and had a lot more impact on their running game than Wilson had on ours. One could make the argument that Wilson did not have the opportunities to mesh with his receivers in the preseason that RG3 did, and that he didn't have the freedom of a full playbook as quickly as RG3, but that is the only angle I can see where Wilson should win it. He belongs in the conversation with Griffin, Morris and Martin, but I do not think he deserves to win it.

 

[HawkGANG]

I'm calling a clean sweep....Russell for OROY, B Wags for DROY, Big Pete for coach, and Schneider for exec.

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

Okay. I just had to hit pause and consider this for a few minutes. We have totally legitimate candidates for Executive, Coach, and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year... wow. wow. wow.

When I see Russell hoist the Lombardi and capture the world with his smile in about a month, I'll know for sure that I'm dreaming. And I'll never want to wake up. GO HAWKS!

 

[SmokinHawk]

I agree with Schneider winning it and probably Wagner, but please make me a case for Wilson winning it over Griffin. I love Russell Wilson. I marked like a teenage girl when we drafted him, literally jumping up and down screaming in jubilation (yes, I am a 38 year old man and I am perfectly comfortable admitting this), but Griffin has better numbers practically across the board. Wilson had more touchdown passes, but a worse touchdown to interception ratio. Griffin also played in one less game and had a lot more impact on their running game than Wilson had on ours. One could make the argument that Wilson did not have the opportunities to mesh with his receivers in the preseason that RG3 did, and that he didn't have the freedom of a full playbook as quickly as RG3, but that is the only angle I can see where Wilson should win it. He belongs in the conversation with Griffin, Morris and Martin, but I do not think he deserves to win it.

Russell Wilson = 30 touchdowns, 3rd round pick.

Robert Griffin III = 27 touchdowns, 2nd overall pick.

 

[JSeahawks]

Gotta be honest, i've never even heard of Casey Heyward. Whos he play for and what position?

Wilson should win it but I think Griffin will.

Wagner will probably win it based on some leaked votes i've heard about.

Carroll should be in the conversation, honestly i have no clue.

Schneider should be a slam dunk. If he doesnt win it that would by far be the biggest injustice of any of the 4.

 

[Decimation]

Gotta be honest, i've never even heard of Casey Heyward. Whos he play for and what position?

Wilson should win it but I think Griffin will.

Wagner will probably win it based on some leaked votes i've heard about.

Carroll should be in the conversation, honestly i have no clue.

Schneider should be a slam dunk. If he doesnt win it that would by far be the biggest injustice of any of the 4.

Casey Heyward is a CB for the Packers.

I've heard about him a little bit, but I've never seen him play.

 

[kearly]

Griffin has better numbers practically across the board.

Wilson leads in DVOA, DYAR, PFF's metrics, and wins. Wilson is actually the highest scoring rookie ever in DYAR (the 2nd highest ever is RG3, and Wilson's score is about 25% higher).

RG3 leads in passer rating (by the skin of his teeth), YPA, and EPA/P (expected points added per play).

That said, if it were a 18 game season instead of 16 games, it seems very likely that Wilson would have passed RG3 in passer rating, they were extremely close. All three of the stats that RG3 leads in do not account for strength of opponent though. And all the stats that factor strength of opponent favor Wilson across the board.

Wilson also won the game head to head and looked far superior while doing so. Sure, RG3 was injured, but RG3 was an injury magnet in college too and I said all offseason that RG3 was overhyped because of the injury factor.

Wilson also played in a much more complete offense. He runs a massive playbook by rookie standards and attacks every area of the field. RG3 was a runner who threw a lot of screen passes and runs a highly simplified offense.

RG3 played on a weaker team, so that's a point for him. But he also played a much easier schedule, and had far fewer wins against teams with winning records.

A month ago, I thought RG3 had it going away. But then he got hurt, and Wilson caught fire. I think Wilson passed him up. Not by much, but I definitely think he's the most deserving now.

If RG3 gets it, I won't complain, because it's really close between the two.

Schneider should be a slam dunk. If he doesnt win it that would by far be the biggest injustice of any of the 4.

Agreed completely on this point. It blows my mind that people are even talking about Elway or the Colts GM. It also strikes me as idiotic that people across the country are touting the Seahawks as an elite team now, and yet none of them mention Schneider for building that team out of nothing in just three years.

 

[SirTed]

The Casey Heyward thing is weird. I'm not saying that he shouldn't win but I've watch numerous Packer games, and the ball just seems to find him.


I can't explain it. I'm not talking about an Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu situation where the player finds the ball I mean that I remember multiple interceptions where the quarterback inexplicably threw the ball right at Heyward when he was playing the nickle corner. We're talking - CB is practically standing still and the QB hits him in the numbers like he can't see him.

I'm telling...weird stuff.

Award breakdown from my perspective:

OROY: RGIII - just slightly better numbers than our guy. If Luck wins this I will be PISSED. I don't want to say that Luck sucks but I swear half the reason he's got so many yards is because he throws the Colts out of games in the first place.

DROY: See above.

COTY: Bruce Ariens (sp) - Similar to Wilson, a tough year to peak for PC. Many other years he'd probably deserve it - just a tough year.

EOTY - John Schneider - My only beef with this (and I don't want this to lean towards trashing JS) is that it doesn't give Pete the credit he deserves in a personnel sense. Schneider has a ton of input and I'm sure he's turned Pete on to a number of potential players but this team is Pete's vision, and I wish that he could be recognized for that.

 

[JSeahawks]

Schneider should be a slam dunk. If he doesnt win it that would by far be the biggest injustice of any of the 4.

Agreed completely on this point. It blows my mind that people are even talking about Elway or the Colts GM. It also strikes me as idiotic that people across the country are touting the Seahawks as an elite team now, and yet none of them mention Schneider for building that team out of nothing in just three years.

I would guess that its because Pete Carroll is so much the public face of the franchise. You never really see Schneider out there. The media should know about him, but I have a feeling Carroll gets much of the credit that Schneider deserves from them.

 

[kearly]

I guess what bothers me is this-

What did John Elway do that was so great? Signing Manning is the biggest no-brainer in NFL history. Usually when you say "in history" it lends itself to sounding like hyperbole. Not this. He drafted Von Miller, but so what? Miller was BPA and Denver needed a pass rusher. Basically, his two best moves as GM were heavily luck based. I see him as a very average GM that is being elevated by Manning the same way Pollian was.

And the GM for the Colts is even worse. There is no team in the NFL that wouldn't have drafted Luck #1, and that QB was only the 3rd best rookie QB this year. TY Hilton was a nice pick in round 3. Anything else? If he wins the award it would make the Oscar votes seem informed by comparison.

 

[SirTed]

I guess what bothers me is this-

What did John Elway do that was so great? Signing Manning is the biggest no-brainer in NFL history. Usually when you say "in history" it lends itself to sounding like hyperbole. Not this. He drafted Von Miller, but so what? Miller was BPA and Denver needed a pass rusher. Basically, his two best moves as GM were heavily luck based. I see him as a very average GM that is being elevated by Manning the same way Pollian was.

And the GM for the Colts is even worse. There is no team in the NFL that wouldn't have drafted Luck #1, and that QB was only the 3rd best rookie QB this year. TY Hilton was a nice pick in round 3. Anything else? If he wins the award it would make the Oscar votes seem informed by comparison.

Does Elway "officially" get credit in the race for EOTY with the drafting of Von Miller even though he did so before the beginning of LAST season? And as you said, hard to give the guy credit for the signing of Manning, huge no brainer for the Donks - except that he DID sign him when there were multiple suitors so maybe, maybe you could argue that he used some finesse in actually nabbing the player that half the league wanted to sign, although in my opinion it just came down to Denver being the best place for Manning due to personnel.

 

[hawksfan515]

Here's my super biased picks:

OROY: wilson, duh. RG3 has stayed consistent over the season, but late in the season Wilson looked like an all-pro, plus Wilson beat him in the playoffs. Injuries factor in as well, and RG3 just can't stay healthy it seems.

DROY: Wagner or Heyward. Honestly, I think Heyward deserves it a bit more but he's not a starter so I'll lean towards wagner a tad cause I'm a homer.

COTY: Pete Carroll, duh.

EOTY: John Schneider, if he doesn't win this one it's a fix.