We don't necessarily have to win or 9ers lose

[MidwestHawker]

And somehow the Rams "having our number" has translated to us winning 2 out of 3 times, by the way. If that's someone having our number then I guess that's not the worst place to be.

Again, nobody's really saying that this game will be easy. But reality must be strictly kept at all times.

 

[Polaris]

No, those same long-term statistics indicated that we would win this game 81% of the time. When you have an 81% chance of something occurring, guess what? It doesn't happen 100% of the time. If it did, that would be a flawed stat. Outliers happen. That's why speaking of small sample sizes as if they're meaningful is fatally flawed.

(Also I have no idea how you're saying that those statistics indicated that we shoudl have beaten Arizona by twenty when the betting market - which is what I've cited - indicated that we should have an average result against them of winning by approximately 10.)

Except it's a mistake to try to judge football game by game. You don't have enough data points. You can judge it play by play, and Seattle didn't play to it's standards according to it's average play by play standard.

Guess who else Seattle doesn't play to it's play by play average against consistantly? The St Loius Rams. That has been the pattern in the RW era. This is what I mean by "The Rams have our number."

 

[MidwestHawker]

Except it's a mistake to try to judge football game by game. You don't have enough data points. You can judge it play by play, and Seattle didn't play to it's standards according to it's average play by play standard.

Guess who else Seattle doesn't play to it's play by play average against consistantly? The St Loius Rams. That has been the pattern in the RW era. This is what I mean by "The Rams have our number."

The market accounts for all of this. If you're under the impression that the sharps have no idea about our prior games against the Rams then you're completely out to lunch. You're putting your subjective eye test up over the objective market. And again you're speaking of "patterns" as if three data points constitutes a meaningful pattern for predictive purposes. It doesn't.

 

[Polaris]

Except it's a mistake to try to judge football game by game. You don't have enough data points. You can judge it play by play, and Seattle didn't play to it's standards according to it's average play by play standard.

Guess who else Seattle doesn't play to it's play by play average against consistantly? The St Loius Rams. That has been the pattern in the RW era. This is what I mean by "The Rams have our number."

The market accounts for all of this. If you're under the impression that the sharps have no idea about our prior games against the Rams then you're completely out to lunch. You're putting your subjective eye test up over the objective market. And again you're speaking of "patterns" as if three data points constitutes a meaningful pattern for predictive purposes. It doesn't.

The market is far from perfect. I have more trust in DVOA but patterns matter too. Edit: At this point I don't trust the market on this one. Even if I did, the point spread is similiar which indicates about a 4/5 chance to win....or more to the point a 1/5 chance that we don't (and likely a WC).

 

[MidwestHawker]

Per historical pointspread data, it's roughly 10.9% that we end up as a wildcard right now. That's a frighteningly high number when it could have been wrapped up by now for sure, but that still is what it is. If you think that Polaris Eye Test trumps the market then obviously you can see my opinion of that, but it's certainly not going to be SO much better that we're actually in 20-25% danger or something outright doubling the market odds like that. And even if it somehow was, we would obviously be far more in good shape than bad.

I mean, again, this game is going to worry me because the margin for error is probably gone now if we don't get a miracle tomorrow night. But it's more one of "this will probably work out, but man if it doesn't..." than an actual dire situation or something now.

 

[nategreat]

Hey MidwestHawker and Polaris:

Why don't you guys bet on it?

 

[dopeboy206]

The Niners are a lead pipe lock to win out.

Holy crap dude, not this again.

They're favored by 3 points right now against Arizona next week. 3 points. 3-point favorites win at approximately a 60% clip. They are not a "lead pipe lock" to win out. I would agree that it would be beyond shocking for them to lose tomorrow, but even assuming that as a win already, there's no lock about it.

I disagree. The Niners are a 3pt favorite on the road That means the sharpies at Vegas have San Fran as about a toucchdown favorite on a neutral field...and that is probably understating the case. I would be stunned if San Fran loses another game.

So basically you're saying you'll be stunned if San Fran doesn't win the SB..?

 

[Polaris]

So basically you're saying you'll be stunned if San Fran doesn't win the SB..?

Well, if the 'hawks DO squander HFA and the Niners wind up with the #2 seed (or even the #1), that wouldn't be a bad bet actually.

 

[mikeak]

Good news is Bucs - Saints starts late. That means that Arizona will come out and go for the win. If the saints won early and 49ers beat the Falcons then the Cards would have been eliminated before kickoff

Always something