Vegas wants the Falcons to beat the Seahawks

[dopeboy206]

I know this is a controversial topic and I will probably get crucified for this because most people don't buy into Vegas favoring one team over the other but let's look at the betting lines:

These are subjected to change till kickoff but here is where the money is flowing at the moment according to vegas insiders:

Moneyline (straight bet):
Seattle: 85%
Atlanta: 15%

Spread:
Seattle: 52%
Atlanta: 48%

Over/Under:
Over: 64%
Under: 36%

This is not counting parlays. I know Vegas has no influence on games or there is no proof that they do but if they did we are screwed. Remember those Buffalo Wild Wings commercials? It would be like that.

It's also silly to not think Vegas prefer the falcons over the Seahawks at the moment. If you were the house wouldn't you rather make money than lose money????

 

[Hass2Carlson]

All they can control is the spread and odds to level gamblers on both sides. It seems they have done that on the spread but their multiple is too high on the money line. Fixing a game would be chump change compared to what's at stake if fans thought the games weren't on the up and up

 

[dopeboy206]

All they can control is the spread and odds to level gamblers on both sides. It seems they have done that on the spread but their multiple is too high on the money line. Fixing a game would be chump change compared to what's at stake if fans thought the games weren't on the up and up

Totally agree. I don't think there's proof they dictate games or fix the outcomes of them. All I am saying with the way the money is flowing I think they prefer Atlanta to win cause it's common sense to anyone that you rather make money than lose money.

 

[mikeak]

I know this is a controversial topic and I will probably get crucified for this because most people don't buy into Vegas favoring one team over the other but let's look at the betting lines:

The people that think that Vegas only makes money on the juice don't understand how it works (you do )

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ear ... 48b98b593e

 

[Sterling Archer]

This is correct but I don't think it matters at all. I don't buy into any Vegas conspiracy theory.

Vegas lost a lot of money last weekend as every favorite covered and most public bets are on the favorite. They will be looking to recoup those losses this week.

I bet on Seattle against the spread, not sure if we'll win but if we show up we should make it a closer game than the 5 pts it's current at.

It'll be interesting what the sharps end up doing, I usually look at that info the day before the game and if they're on Seattle that will make me feel a lot better in general about our chances. They only care about making money.

 

[gowazzu02]

This thread reminded me of the 2015 season when WSU righted the ship and got to 9 wins and a Sun bowl win over Miami. Of those 9 wins they were dogs in 6 of the games, double digit dogs in 4 of them. Confident Cougs could of made a killing.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

 

[dopeboy206]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

Nobody says anything about vegas dictating games or fixing the outcomes of them but I think it's silly not to think they favor one team to win over the other because not all odds/spreads/lines that they create will have an even amount of betters on both sides that even the vig/juice can cover. It's all about making money. Who knows the Seahawks/Falcons games may have less impact or see less action compared to other games this weekend but for you to think that they only care about the juice is silly. If you were a bookie wouldn't you want to make money than lose money? Ask yourself that question. If breaking even or just taking a small change is the reason why you became a bookie to begin with then you need to find a new profession.

Please read:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pwa/?utm ... o-alabama/

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

Nobody says anything about vegas dictating games or fixing the outcomes of them but I think it's silly not to think they favor one team to win over the other because not all odds/spreads/lines that they create will have an even amount of betters on both sides that even the vig/juice can cover. It's all about making money. Who knows the Seahawks/Falcons games may have less impact or see less action compared to other games but to think they only care about the juice is silly. If you were a bookie wouldn't you want to make money than lose money? Ask yourself that question. If breaking even or just taking a small change is the reason why you became a bookie to begin with then you need to find a new profession.

Please read:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pwa/?utm ... o-alabama/

All this article tells me is the Vegas oddsmakers drastically miscalculated how much money was going to come in on Clemson after they set their lines, and couldn't recover.

What monetary purpose would Vegas have to favor one team more than the spread?

 

[Sterling Archer]

I don't think Vegas favors one team over the other before the bets are in, but once they see a majority of money on one side you can sure as hell bet that they are rooting for the other side so they make money. I know for a fact this happens and that during games books do have a rooting interest.

This is also why they will shift the lines up until the game, especially after the sharp money comes in and they have a better idea of the overall outcome and which side of their bet needs more action to minimize risk on their end.

 

[AgentDib]

The takeaway here is that Vegas got the spread approximately right but was significantly off on the money line. In stats terms they got the mean correct but underestimated the width of the distribution. And yes, as a result they don't care much about the margin of victory but would like the Falcons to win outright.

Wisdom of the crowds indicates we deserve to be underdogs but with a very flat distribution that indicates high uncertainty. That is good news for an underdog and so overall Hawks fans should treat this as a positive sign.

 

[mikeak]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

Nobody says anything about vegas dictating games or fixing the outcomes of them but I think it's silly not to think they favor one team to win over the other because not all odds/spreads/lines that they create will have an even amount of betters on both sides that even the vig/juice can cover. It's all about making money. Who knows the Seahawks/Falcons games may have less impact or see less action compared to other games but to think they only care about the juice is silly. If you were a bookie wouldn't you want to make money than lose money? Ask yourself that question. If breaking even or just taking a small change is the reason why you became a bookie to begin with then you need to find a new profession.

Please read:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pwa/?utm ... o-alabama/

All this article tells me is the Vegas oddsmakers drastically miscalculated how much money was going to come in on Clemson after they set their lines, and couldn't recover.

What monetary purpose would Vegas have to favor one team more than the spread?

Yes they set the line based on what they think it will be and expect 50 / 50 bets on every game. Once it starts going heavy one side the line adjusts to lower their risk, but it does mean that for every single game played every day (which is a LOT) they have a percentage risk where if one team wins / beats the spread will mean they make more or less money.

In other words the juice / vig is NOT the only way they make money. So every game they have a "favorite" not because they care about the outcome off the game, but because the outcome will impact if they make or lose money in addition to the Vig.

Don't think anything else has been said in this thread

 

[dopeboy206]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

Nobody says anything about vegas dictating games or fixing the outcomes of them but I think it's silly not to think they favor one team to win over the other because not all odds/spreads/lines that they create will have an even amount of betters on both sides that even the vig/juice can cover. It's all about making money. Who knows the Seahawks/Falcons games may have less impact or see less action compared to other games but to think they only care about the juice is silly. If you were a bookie wouldn't you want to make money than lose money? Ask yourself that question. If breaking even or just taking a small change is the reason why you became a bookie to begin with then you need to find a new profession.

Please read:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pwa/?utm ... o-alabama/

All this article tells me is the Vegas oddsmakers drastically miscalculated how much money was going to come in on Clemson after they set their lines, and couldn't recover.

What monetary purpose would Vegas have to favor one team more than the spread?

Why would they favor a team without seeing where the action is on the spreads? I think your getting it misconstrued.

 

[Zombie Hawk]

This is correct but I don't think it matters at all. I don't buy into any Vegas conspiracy theory.

Vegas lost a lot of money last weekend as every favorite covered and most public bets are on the favorite. They will be looking to recoup those losses this week.

I agree and I believe the spread opened at 3 1/2 so the fact that Seattle is getting even more points now is not a good sign. If I were looking at this purely objectively I would bet on ATL. But knowing this Seattle team like I do I feel like there is a chance they come out and have an unpredictably dominate game.

 

[dopeboy206]

I don't think Vegas favors one team over the other before the bets are in, but once they see a majority of money on one side you can sure as hell bet that they are rooting for the other side so they make money. I know for a fact this happens and that during games books do have a rooting interest.

This is also why they will shift the lines up until the game, especially after the sharp money comes in and they have a better idea of the overall outcome and which side of their bet needs more action to minimize risk on their end.

Thank you. Nailed it on the first paragraph. After the bets are in you best believe oddsmakers have a favorite or a team they are rooting for. I don't see what part of that Sgt. Largent doesn't understand.

PS: I might be jumping the gun because the lines and action may shift but as of right now if the game starts today you can best believe the oddsmakers are rooting for Atlanta.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Yes they set the line based on what they think it will be and expect 50 / 50 bets on every game. Once it starts going heavy one side the line adjusts to lower their risk, but it does mean that for every single game played every day (which is a LOT) they have a percentage risk where if one team wins / beats the spread will mean they make more or less money.

In other words the juice / vig is NOT the only way they make money. So every game they have a "favorite" not because they care about the outcome off the game, but because the outcome will impact if they make or lose money in addition to the Vig.

Don't think anything else has been said in this thread

We're all saying the same thing, yes there are calculated risks that go into oddsmaking..........but the major influence into setting those odds is to try and get as much even money as possible.

Now maybe some books take more risks using their vast databases after crunching numbers to try and sway betters onto one side because they think they can make a killing (which is what I think the OP is saying).

So no, it's not JUST the Vig they're after, but it's the major break even mason dixon line that they try and balance.

 

[bmorepunk]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

Nobody says anything about vegas dictating games or fixing the outcomes of them but I think it's silly not to think they favor one team to win over the other because not all odds/spreads/lines that they create will have an even amount of betters on both sides that even the vig/juice can cover. It's all about making money. Who knows the Seahawks/Falcons games may have less impact or see less action compared to other games but to think they only care about the juice is silly. If you were a bookie wouldn't you want to make money than lose money? Ask yourself that question. If breaking even or just taking a small change is the reason why you became a bookie to begin with then you need to find a new profession.

Please read:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/pwa/?utm ... o-alabama/

All this article tells me is the Vegas oddsmakers drastically miscalculated how much money was going to come in on Clemson after they set their lines, and couldn't recover.

What monetary purpose would Vegas have to favor one team more than the spread?

Please OP, just stop and listen to the Sgt.

The only outcome in games that gambling companies care about is how close it is to the probability distribution of possible outcomes and its relationship to perception of bettors (how they set their betting lines).

 

[Sterling Archer]

This is correct but I don't think it matters at all. I don't buy into any Vegas conspiracy theory.

Vegas lost a lot of money last weekend as every favorite covered and most public bets are on the favorite. They will be looking to recoup those losses this week.

I agree and I believe the spread opened at 3 1/2 so the fact that Seattle is getting even more points now is not a good sign. If I were looking at this purely objectively I would bet on ATL. But knowing this Seattle team like I do I feel like there is a chance they come out and have an unpredictably dominate game.

This doesn't mean much honestly. The public is typically stupid and just bets on the favorite. Smarter money tends to come in later (not always, depends on if they like the early line and they anticipate it moving negatively to where they want to bet).

For example, if a pro better wants to bet on Seattle, it behooves them to wait until the line moves away from 3.5, knowing most of the public is going to likely bet on ATL.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

Vegas doesn't give a rat's ass about playing favorites, all they care about is creating a spread that will bring the most even amount of money in on both teams so that they don't take a huge loss.

It's called the Vig, it's the fee you pay to bet, and it's incorporated into the spread. That's it, any conspiracy theories or Vegas wanting the Hawks to lose is crazy talk.

Yes. Vegas is just trying to hedge its bets. They do things based on amounts of betting on the two teams. It's just a numbers thing.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Vegas finds its ways to make money. If you think they always look for even action, then you're wrong. Regardless of the spread, if the Browns play a great team like the Chiefs or Seahawks, people will bet the better team. You see it plenty of times where the line goes against a public play (reverse line movement).

Those sites that show betting percentage are very inaccurate. They typically get that information from a few small offshore books. I can tell you that the percentages are pretty even on this game. This game won't matter that much to Vegas. Rarely is their a game where Vegas actually has to root for a side. Last years SB, Vegas WANTED Denver to win as the public was heavily backing Carolina.

You definitely can use Vegas as an indicator to who will win. Sharps in Vegas have a better feel for an outcome than any regular NFL fan. Follow the late and early money and that usually tells you who sharps like. Hoping to see Seattle get hammered down to 4 before kickoff. But then again, to understand NFL gambling, there isn't a huge difference between a spread of 5 and 4.