This weekend could be the biggest of the season for Seattle

[kearly]

Seattle's path to the #2 seed is pretty simple: they need to win out, and they need the 49ers, Packers, and Giants to all lose one non-Seahawks game in the final 3. Consider then:

#1: Seattle plays Buffalo on the road. With all due respect to SF, Buffalo is Seattle's best chance for a loss in the final 3 games. If Seattle wins this game, I feel really good about finishing 11-5.

#2: San Francisco plays at New England. New England is the #1 team in the NFL in DVOA and just smoked the previously 11-1 Houston Texans. This is by far the hardest non-Seahawks game remaining on the schedule. It's almost inconcievable that SF would beat New England on the road but lose to Arizona at home in the final week. This game will pretty much decide the division and therefore Seattle's chance at a bye before the Seahawks even get their second shot at the 49ers.

#3: Green Bay plays at Chicago. If the Packers win this game, we might not catch them. Their week 16 game is at home against a bad Titans team, and their final game is on the road at Minnesota. I think Minnesota could maybe pull it off, but this weekend represents Seattle's best hope for Green Bay dropping a game and allowing the Golden Gate play to determine a tiebreaker.

#4: New York plays at Atlanta. The Giants are a very good road team and Atlanta is a paper tiger. That said they are an 11-2 paper tiger, and this might be the best chance for the Giants to drop a game we need them to lose. If the Giants and Seahawks both win out, the Giants will own the tiebreaker thanks to conference record. If the Giants beat Atlanta then there is still hope because they'll visit Baltimore the next week, and Baltimore is about as tough at home as Seattle is. Still, it would be nice if Atlanta took care of business for us.

Feeling greedy and lucky? If Atlanta loses out and Seattle wins out Seattle would own the tiebreaker. If you have confidence in Baltimore and think Atlanta is capable of losing at the Lions and at home to the Bucs, then you might want to pull for the Giants in this game and hope for Baltimore to beat them next week.

 

[OhlHawkFan]

This is a must win this weekend and our biggest game of the season so far. If the Hawks dump this game or show up lethargic like the did against the Dolphins, Lions, etc. then none of those scenarios matter. We need this win to set up the big Sunday night game with the Whiners.

 

[NJSeahawk]

Mr. Random Thought for President!

I was thinking about the varying scenarios and I see Kearly has already laid it out for us.

Thanks for the post and information!

 

[QuahHawk]

Plan B If we don't get #1 or #2 seed is to get the #4 seed instead of #3 because I do not want to face Green Bay @ GB. I would much rather play at Atlanta, New York, or San Fran.

So to get #4 seed

ATL lose to NYG go 2-1 (13-3) =#1 seed
GB win out (12-4)=#2 seed
NYG win out (11-5)=#3 seed
SF loss to NE and Seattle win out (11-5) = #4 seed
SF loss to NE and SEA (10-5-1)= #5 seed
Chi loss to GB (10-6)=#6 seed

WC weekend
CHI @ NYG
SF @ SEA

Divisional
NYG @ GB
SEA @ ATL

NFC Championship
SEA @ NYG

 

[Largent80]

The way we have played in December and beyond in GB makes me not want to go there, and we are stinkoriffic in SF in recent years.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

This is a must win this weekend and our biggest game of the season so far. If the Hawks dump this game or show up lethargic like the did against the Dolphins, Lions, etc. then none of those scenarios matter. We need this win to set up the big Sunday night game with the Whiners.

Championship level teams win games they should and this is a game they should win, especially considering the Bills are all but dead in the AFC playoff race (thanks Lambs). The games you mentioned, along with the Skins game at home last year, definitely make me nervous for this week. A loss in Toronto will leave our guys scrambling for a #6 seed. We're going to see where their maturity level is this week. Come out and take care of business against a lesser team and I for one will feel they gained perspective from that egg they laid against Miami. Spend the week wallowing in a 58-0 blowout of the Cards and it'll be another case of not taking the final 'maturity' step yet.

 

[mikeak]

The Bills game scares me. Not because it is on the road, not because it is the East Coast road, not because of the start time which is in our favor.

It simply and only scares me because we play 49ers next week and we just blew out AZ. I see several players on this team that may not have the right mindset and I just hope the coaching staff and RW will have them 100% focused on this game.

If we win this then we can focus on the 49ers

 

[Jazzhawk]

Thanks Kip, good thoughts. While I do see the possibility of playing down to Buffalo's level, I still think we win there, especially the late start time and that it's in Toronto, added to the thought that Seattle seems to be hitting it's stride and having it's usual (under PC) late season push. The key, to me, is really that the Patriots take care of business at home and beat the 49ers. I think this leads to questions and hand wringing in San Fran over Harbaugh's decision to go with Kaepernick and creates some questions in their mind and creating a distraction going into the Seahawks game.

Other than that, ya I like rooting for all the other teams etc, but bottom line, it's all about what happens to the Seahawks first, 49ers second.

 

[hawker84]

need to take care of business one week at a time.. there's no way any seahawk players don't understand how important this buffalo game is, there's no way pete won't have them ready, and pumped to handle business... set up for our showdown with niners at the clink... win that, first round bye could very well be on the menu... our playoffs start sunday guys, the coaches and players all know this and will be pumped up and ready... just have to execute and keep the stupid penalties down.

 

[BASF]

The Atlanta/NY game is probably the most intriguing of that group. After the Giants embarrassed the Falcons last year, it will be a serious revenge game for the Falcons. Watching the Falcons play this season, it seems that they kind of lack the emotion for a revenge game. They have been kind of clinical in their play this season. If they can play like they want to embarrass the Giants, NY may just slip right out of the playoffs with the Redskins facing the Browns this week.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I know it sounds weird but I want the 3 seed. I think the team has so much momentum going right now that a bye might mess that up.

3 seed = At least 1 home playoff game, with a very realistic shot at a 2nd since I think Atlanta is ripe for another playoff flame out... and the chance to just keep the snowball rolling down the mountain.

 

[Hasselbeck]

The Bills game scares me. Not because it is on the road, not because it is the East Coast road, not because of the start time which is in our favor.

It simply and only scares me because we play 49ers next week and we just blew out AZ. I see several players on this team that may not have the right mindset and I just hope the coaching staff and RW will have them 100% focused on this game.

If we win this then we can focus on the 49ers

On the flip side of the coin, the team will hopefully remember the Miami game.. because this screams the exact same scenario.

We'll see what happens. Can't wait!

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I know it sounds weird but I want the 3 seed. I think the team has so much momentum going right now that a bye might mess that up.

3 seed = At least 1 home playoff game, with a very realistic shot at a 2nd since I think Atlanta is ripe for another playoff flame out... and the chance to just keep the snowball rolling down the mountain.

Different perspective, but a good one IMO. I might just agree with you on the #3 seed.

 

[Scottemojo]

Kip, out of all those teams, which ones would you not want to play on the road? I don't want to play the Giants at all in the playoffs, they win anywhere in January.

 

[hawker84]

giants don't scare me as much as GB in Greenbay.. we seem to have the formula to beat NY, there or at home for whatever reason.

 

[Hawks46]

Every game is important from here on out, as there are three 7-6 teams right behind us. Let's hope the team takes it one game at a time. That said:

I don't see the Giants getting the 2nd seed. The play Atlanta (who I think will be motivated after the CAR loss.....they don't want to lose HTA and Smith will be on them about it. They're also very good at home). If they beat ATL, which I think they can, they still have to play WASH don't they ? I know they have one more team on the schedule that is tough, I don't see them winning out.

GB is the biggest threat. I don't know if CHI can beat them....they're kind of in a tail spin and Cutler is dinged up. If MIN is still in playoff contention, I see them beating GB at home. If not, GB rolls a team not playing for anything.

I think it likely the Niners lose this week. THat means we have to beat BUF, and we have to then beat SF.

We can't discount a very feisty Rams team that still hasn't lost in division.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

Playing in Green Bay in the snow would be the most challenging of all scenerios.

 

[drdiags]

Hawks46. The Giants have played the Redskins twice. They beat them in New Jersey and just recently lost to them in DC.

They have the Falcons, Ravens and Eagles left on the schedule. Not sure what to think of the Ravens with the recent firing of Cam Cameron.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Playing in Green Bay in the snow would be the most challenging of all scenerios.

Hawks found this out last time we played GB in the playoffs. I still have nightmares about Favre's shuffle pass.

 

[kearly]

Kip, out of all those teams, which ones would you not want to play on the road? I don't want to play the Giants at all in the playoffs, they win anywhere in January.

None of them. That's why getting a bye or at least the division is extremely important. As much as I love this team, it's nearly inconceivable that they could win 4 straight games against great teams away from Seattle.

With regards to:

Green Bay: Their DVOA has dipped in recent weeks but for much of the season they were among the elite of the elite. Their homefield advantage in January is very tough to overcome, and Aaron Rodgers is still an all-world QB. They also dominated the Seahawks in the 2nd half of this year's match. The only plus side about a Green Bay matchup would be that our pass rushers do well against their stiff tackles and a QB who holds the ball to be his best.

San Francisco: I think we can beat them anywhere. Probably should have beat them last time if not for the dropfest.

New York: They are clutch, but they don't scare me much. Not to sound cocky but I could see Seattle blowing them out. Their pass rush won't impact Wilson as much as most QBs they are used to facing, and Manning is the kind of QB that could have a tough day vs. our pass rush and secondary if the game is in Seattle. Also, don't they play on a similar surface to ours in New York? Seattle might stand a good chance on the road against them.

Redskins: Morris and RG3 could create problems for us. I'd be nervous about that matchup.

Bears: If it's in Seattle, I think it's an easy win. If it's in Chicago somehow, I'd be worried unless Cutler is still hurt / ailing.

Falcons: I think the Seahawks would smoosh them. The only way they lose is if Pete reverts to a base pass rush with zone coverage on most plays like he did vs. Chicago and Miami. The Falcons are the most finesse team in the NFL and Matt Ryan has about as much playoff winning experience as Russell Wilson does. They remind me a TON of the 2005 Seahawks but quite frankly I think the 2012 team would smoke the 2005 version in an actual head to head game. Great physical teams tend to kick the asses of great finesse teams.

Cowboys: I think we beat them easily. Again.

Vikings: Only way Seattle would lose is if the game somehow occurred in Minnesota.

Bucs: I wouldn't want to face them, but they look like unlikely playoff contenders right now.

Rams: If it's in Seattle, it's no contest.