Things not looking good in Bronco land

[Scout]

I am not buying the idea that it is a slam dunk win for the Broncos against the Bears. The Bears looked competent in some parts of their games against other opponents this season so far.

The problem is that the Bears have RBs that can be productive but not enough attempts so far. DJ Moore has been relatively quiet as well so the Bears have weapons but Fields has to be more consistent.

So the Broncos have to keep pressuring Fields because if Fields finds a groove then it may open up their running game. Keep in mind that Herbert is averaging 4.0 yards per carry, Johnson is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and Foreman is averaging 3.2. Between these three RBs they have combined for only 45 carries so far. Broncos defense has struggled to shut down ground games that start to steam roll.

So the Bears offense has been anemic but they are a sleeping giant in my mind based on the talent and production with limited chances so far.
Broncos offense should be able to move the ball against a Bears defense that still is trying to find its footing. Broncos scoring early will help neutralize the potential ground game by the Bears possibly. But if the Broncos let the Bears hang around anything is possible.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Russell doesn't play on the side of the ball that gave up 70. You can argue that the offense is designed to make him look good, but if the defense does its job then it should be enough to win more often than not.
Show me a QB that can win with a defense giving up 70 points.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

They won only because Justin Fields gave it to them. I don't believe in Geno but imagine having Justin Fields? At least Geno won't give a game away.

 

[CalgaryFan05]

Shoot!

I called 0-4 start to their season. Missed it by a couple inches!

Now they're gonna stop fighting internally for a bit while they think they have 'momentum' and 'figured things out'.

Sooooooooooooooooooo wanted the loss yesterday!

 

[Weadoption]

 

[Palmegranite]

They've always said this:

Sean Payton, fashion icon.

 

[morgulon1]

They've always said this:

Sean Payton, fashion icon.

He's trying to copy Belichek

 

[JPatera76]

He's trying to copy Belichek

.. So hes going Half Pete and Half Belicheck...

I mean he has Russ so that could be the Pete part.. if he uses him like PC did.
He's got the Belicheck (Belicheat) thing down with the Bountygate...

Id say he's already 50/50 PC and Belicheck

 

[morgulon1]

.. So hes going Half Pete and Half Belicheck...

I mean he has Russ so that could be the Pete part.. if he uses him like PC did.
He's got the Belicheck (Belicheat) thing down with the Bountygate...

Id say he's already 50/50 PC and Belicheck

Payton is very clown-like. I love it

 

[Lagartixa]

Ah, the schadenfreude of watching the time-slowed-down train wreck that the Denver Broncos have become.

Looks like Randy Gregory is being jettisoned. That's $16.1M in dead money.

I wish there were something I as a fan could do to help George Paton keep his job for as long as possible. I think he's doing a great job at keeping a team I really dislike from succeeding.

 

[bileever]

Looks like Randy Gregory is being jettisoned. That's $16.1M in dead money.

I wish there were something I as a fan could do to help George Paton keep his job for as long as possible. I think he's doing a great job at keeping a team I really dislike from succeeding.

George Paton is a by-the-book GM. He adheres to all the common wisdom of the day, but doesn't dig deeper. Got to have an edge rusher, sign Randy Gregory. Need a franchise QB, trade for Russell Wilson. Have to have a shutdown corner, draft Patrick Surtain.

He overpaid for Gregory, signing him to a 5-year $70 million contract, ignoring his injury history and lack of production. Even Jerry knew not to sign Gregory. But to make matters worse, he traded the better DE to Miami, Bradley Chubb.

He drafted Surtain when he could have had Micah Parsons. Surtain is good, but I think that draft pick at number 3 drove the Broncos fanbase crazy.

Then, we all know what happened with Russell Wilson.

But he was still at it this off season, trying to fix the O-line through free agency, paying $87 million for a player, McGlinchey, that Shanahan decided wasn't any good (and it looks like he was right) and $51 million for Ben Powers, instead of re-signing Graham Glasgow, a better player.

He also decided not to re-sign Dre'mont Jones and signed Zach Allen instead. If you look at the results, you would have to say that the Broncos defense is worse this year.

What I like about Carroll/Schneider is that they don't just do what everyone else does. They're not just checking off boxes, they're building a team. They don't care that they drafted a great CB last year, they'll take another one if they like him. Same with RB. Not all of their moves work, but I appreciate the creativity. The other route guarantees mediocrity.

 

[Maulbert]

George Paton is a by-the-book GM. He adheres to all the common wisdom of the day, but doesn't dig deeper. Got to have an edge rusher, sign Randy Gregory. Need a franchise QB, trade for Russell Wilson. Have to have a shutdown corner, draft Patrick Surtain.

He overpaid for Gregory, signing him to a 5-year $70 million contract, ignoring his injury history and lack of production. Even Jerry knew not to sign Gregory. But to make matters worse, he traded the better DE to Miami, Bradley Chubb.

He drafted Surtain when he could have had Micah Parsons. Surtain is good, but I think that draft pick at number 3 drove the Broncos fanbase crazy.

Then, we all know what happened with Russell Wilson.

But he was still at it this off season, trying to fix the O-line through free agency, paying $87 million for a player, McGlinchey, that Shanahan decided wasn't any good (and it looks like he was right) and $51 million for Ben Powers, instead of re-signing Graham Glasgow, a better player.

He also decided not to re-sign Dre'mont Jones and signed Zach Allen instead. If you look at the results, you would have to say that the Broncos defense is worse this year.

What I like about Carroll/Schneider is that they don't just do what everyone else does. They're not just checking off boxes, they're building a team. They don't care that they drafted a great CB last year, they'll take another one if they like him. Same with RB. Not all of their moves work, but I appreciate the creativity. The other route guarantees mediocrity.

Surtain went at #9, not #3.

 

[Lagartixa]

George Paton is a by-the-book GM. He adheres to all the common wisdom of the day, but doesn't dig deeper. Got to have an edge rusher, sign Randy Gregory. Need a franchise QB, trade for Russell Wilson. Have to have a shutdown corner, draft Patrick Surtain.

He overpaid for Gregory, signing him to a 5-year $70 million contract, ignoring his injury history and lack of production. Even Jerry knew not to sign Gregory. But to make matters worse, he traded the better DE to Miami, Bradley Chubb.

He drafted Surtain when he could have had Micah Parsons. Surtain is good, but I think that draft pick at number 3 drove the Broncos fanbase crazy.

Then, we all know what happened with Russell Wilson.

But he was still at it this off season, trying to fix the O-line through free agency, paying $87 million for a player, McGlinchey, that Shanahan decided wasn't any good (and it looks like he was right) and $51 million for Ben Powers, instead of re-signing Graham Glasgow, a better player.

He also decided not to re-sign Dre'mont Jones and signed Zach Allen instead. If you look at the results, you would have to say that the Broncos defense is worse this year.

What I like about Carroll/Schneider is that they don't just do what everyone else does. They're not just checking off boxes, they're building a team. They don't care that they drafted a great CB last year, they'll take another one if they like him. Same with RB. Not all of their moves work, but I appreciate the creativity. The other route guarantees mediocrity.

In about 2016-2021, it became clear to me that the Seahawks front office has some kind of organized system of player valuation, but that it is very different from the ones used by most teams that have them. I would LOVE to know some details of how they set values on players, even if I had to sign a whole bunch of non-disclosure, non-compete, and other behavior-restricting agreements to be able to find out.

If I had the free time to do it, I'd set up a machine-learning (statistical modeling) project to go through drafts going back to the mid-aughts or so, look at what was known publicly about college players as of each NFL draft (college performance, body measurements, pro-day and Combine performance) plus as extensive a database of NFL players as I could get or build, to see how much I could learn about how different NFL front offices have valued draft picks, different player skills, different measures of performance, etc. when making personnel decisions. I suspect some NFL team must have done something like this by now.

The simplest league-wide version of something like this that some smart teams appear to have used is that while the "Jimmy Johnson" draft chart (which wasn't conceived or developed by Johnson, but was used by him to great success) measures the relative values NFL front offices as a group have given to different draft picks, the Chase Stuart chart is a better measure of how much a given draft pick should be expected to be worth in terms of how much talent it should be expected to obtain in the draft. A smart team can find statistical-arbitrage opportunities by either trading away picks whose perceived value is greater than the on-the-field value they'd be expected to bring in, or by trading for picks whose perceived value is lower than the on-the-field value they'd be expected to bring in. My idea is for something that goes to the next level and looks at individual front offices' tendencies in valuation, allowing a smart-enough-to-do-this team to tailor its trade offers to the specific potential trading partners involved (and is broader than just draft picks).

I have never had the time to even try starting such a project, but I'm pretty confident that one result of the project would be the conclusion that the Seahawks' front office in the Schneider-Carroll era uses valuations that are very different from those of the rest of the league.

If you did it right, you could probably predict the next several players to be drafted in a given draft way better than even true draft experts (not Kiper and his ilk, but the people doing this with real money on the line for NFL teams) could do. As I said, I'm guessing somebody in the NFL has something like this, and it might even be a bunch of teams, because even if the predictions are only a little better, that can end up being a lot of money for a team over a several-year period.

 

[Scout]

Ah, the schadenfreude of watching the time-slowed-down train wreck that the Denver Broncos have become.

Looks like Randy Gregory is being jettisoned. That's $16.1M in dead money.

I wish there were something I as a fan could do to help George Paton keep his job for as long as possible. I think he's doing a great job at keeping a team I really dislike from succeeding.

That is crazy as they traded away Chubb already. Yes they have players that can step up but that is some seriously bad timing and gives them very thin depth now.

 

[Scout]

In about 2016-2021, it became clear to me that the Seahawks front office has some kind of organized system of player valuation, but that it is very different from the ones used by most teams that have them. I would LOVE to know some details of how they set values on players, even if I had to sign a whole bunch of non-disclosure, non-compete, and other behavior-restricting agreements to be able to find out.

If I had the free time to do it, I'd set up a machine-learning (statistical modeling) project to go through drafts going back to the mid-aughts or so, look at what was known publicly about college players as of each NFL draft (college performance, body measurements, pro-day and Combine performance) plus as extensive a database of NFL players as I could get or build, to see how much I could learn about how different NFL front offices have valued draft picks, different player skills, different measures of performance, etc. when making personnel decisions. I suspect some NFL team must have done something like this by now.

The simplest league-wide version of something like this that some smart teams appear to have used is that while the "Jimmy Johnson" draft chart (which wasn't conceived or developed by Johnson, but was used by him to great success) measures the relative values NFL front offices as a group have given to different draft picks, the Chase Stuart chart is a better measure of how much a given draft pick should be expected to be worth in terms of how much talent it should be expected to obtain in the draft. A smart team can find statistical-arbitrage opportunities by either trading away picks whose perceived value is greater than the on-the-field value they'd be expected to bring in, or by trading for picks whose perceived value is lower than the on-the-field value they'd be expected to bring in. My idea is for something that goes to the next level and looks at individual front offices' tendencies in valuation, allowing a smart-enough-to-do-this team to tailor its trade offers to the specific potential trading partners involved (and is broader than just draft picks).

I have never had the time to even try starting such a project, but I'm pretty confident that one result of the project would be the conclusion that the Seahawks' front office in the Schneider-Carroll era uses valuations that are very different from those of the rest of the league.

If you did it right, you could probably predict the next several players to be drafted in a given draft way better than even true draft experts (not Kiper and his ilk, but the people doing this with real money on the line for NFL teams) could do. As I said, I'm guessing somebody in the NFL has something like this, and it might even be a bunch of teams, because even if the predictions are only a little better, that can end up being a lot of money for a team over a several-year period.

The Patriots like the Hawks grade players based on their own internal metrics system in terms of value. But over time by consistently picking low in the draft order putting too much emphasis on technique and production over talent has a drawback. The drawback is missing out on elite talent which causes the Hawks to start to slide in terms of talent in the pipeline and lose out to more talent laden teams. Hawks revamped their draft approach starting in 2022 by revaluing raw athletic value with production and technique. The results speak for themselves while the Patriots have started to slide because they do not use that approach that much on the offensive side of the ball where they focus too much technical play and not enough on uber talent.

Look at the talent the Hawks have been able to draft on offense in a short time span and they have literally rebuilt the offense. Two bookend tackles, interior OL depth, 1a/1b RBs and a slot WR that can be a future #2/1. Oh and the return of McIntosh soon adds a utility RB to the RB stable that is very electrifying and exciting.

Now compare to the Patriots and they have drafted a lot of projects that project on the inside of the OL with no long term fixtures at either OT spot. Patriots are struggling to find a young WR with upside to play on the boundary or outside consistently. They cut most of the RBs with promise and instead with a steady eddie with Elliot who is too similar to Rham as a plowing plodder.

Ironically the Patriots when they have drafted talent are not afraid to take risks with defensive talent like Baramore Gonzalez and K White who all are talented freaks.

Sometimes NFL teams over think it and don't take the best talent on the board. The Hawks have been always on the cutting edge of this which is why they drafted DK Metcalf while everyone else was having a brain fart.

Another draft by the Hawks where they take the best player on the board in 2024 with the draft choices they have and they will be competitive for a long time.

 

[morgulon1]

Back to Russ Wilson . This is heavy duty IMHO. I thought me3 was a geek but now I have no doubt that he's a worthless little clown. I really want him to crash and burn. He's not a good person IMHO.Seattle is so fortunate to have Geno Smith as our QB.

 

[BleuEyedHawk]

Back to Russ Wilson . This is heavy duty IMHO. I thought me3 was a geek but now I have no doubt that he's a worthless little clown. I really want him to crash and burn. He's not a good person IMHO.Seattle is so fortunate to have Geno Smith as our QB.

People wonder about the continued dis-like of ME-3 but this is prime example of why he's hated. I agree, not a good person. Albeit, there've been other dispicable players (each in their own way) but Russ is in a league of his own.

 

[BleuEyedHawk]

P.S. Thank you for the Lynch video.

 

[morgulon1]

P.S. Thank you for the Lynch video.

No problem.
You're 100% right btw. I was blown away by Lynch and what he said. It all came down to that asshole and his getting his yards & TDS. Marshawn Lynch was trying to be a friend, a teammate and the way me3 treated him pisses me off.

I've honestly wondered at times if we at .net had gone a little overboard in our dislike for dude but this little clip left no doubt.