volsunghawk
New member
So one of the common complaints around here last season (and one I've seen a bit this offseason) is the desire to reduce the number of times we see the Seahawks with a fresh set of downs, only to run/run/pass into a punting situation. I found myself wondering how often we really did that last season.
So I started poring through the play-by-play results for the 2012 season at pro-football-reference and tried to determine how many times we really found ourselves in that situation and how much blame should be placed on any lack of creativity from the offensive coaching staff. A few notes before I share the results...
So, how often would you guess we fell into that old run/run pattern? 40% of the time? 50%? More?
As it turns out, we ran on both 1st and 2nd downs 31% of the time last season, counting all regular season and playoff games. Here's the breakdown:
I'm sure there's plenty more analysis that can be done on this topic - especially more sophisticated analysis that considers how often this conservative playcalling led to three-and-outs (which I didn't track, but didn't see many of) or takes into consideration game situation - but I figured I'd throw it out there for some discussion.
So I started poring through the play-by-play results for the 2012 season at pro-football-reference and tried to determine how many times we really found ourselves in that situation and how much blame should be placed on any lack of creativity from the offensive coaching staff. A few notes before I share the results...
- As I was just going by the play-by-play, I counted all of Wilson's scrambles as running plays. I figure this balances with the situations where we ran on 1st down and got another 1st down.
- I did not include downs affected by penalty in the results, though it's clear that a Giacomini personal foul that turns a 2nd and 3 into a 2nd and 18 would clearly affect the playcalling on 2nd down.
- I also did not consider the game situation in the findings... yes, there were times when we were behind and had to throw more near the end of the game. At the same time, there were times when we were ahead and ran on every down to kill clock. I figure those roughly balance, as well.
- Finally, I didn't actually count the run/run/pass numbers. Instead, I only counted the times we ran on both 1st and 2nd down. The situation on 3rd down doesn't seem to be the issue when people complain about overly conservative or predictable offensive playcalling... it's those runs on 1st and 2nd down that are the basis of the complaint - so that's what I counted.
So, how often would you guess we fell into that old run/run pattern? 40% of the time? 50%? More?
As it turns out, we ran on both 1st and 2nd downs 31% of the time last season, counting all regular season and playoff games. Here's the breakdown:
- @ARZ: 7/28 (25%)
DAL: 12/25 (48%)
GB: 7/18 (39%)
@STL: 8/28 (29%)
CAR: 9/25 (36%)
NE: 5/23 (22%)
@SF: 8/21 (38%)
@DET: 4/26 (15%)
MIN: 12/29 (41%)
NYJ: 13/27 (48%)
@MIA: 7/21 (33%)
@CHI: 6/32 (19%)
ARZ: 12/29 (41%)
@BUF: 7/27 (26%)
SF: 9/24 (38%)
STL: 6/24 (25%)
@WAS: 7/29 (24%)
@ATL: 6/35 (17%)
I'm sure there's plenty more analysis that can be done on this topic - especially more sophisticated analysis that considers how often this conservative playcalling led to three-and-outs (which I didn't track, but didn't see many of) or takes into consideration game situation - but I figured I'd throw it out there for some discussion.