Rapoport: Wilson's agent likely to end contract talks soon

[Hawkpower]

How is this a bad thing for the Seahawks?

(1) The instability and distraction, that I have already talked about, occurring when your supposed leader of the team has refused to sign an extension.

(2) Both franchise tag options next year are bad deals for any team. Ideally, we want Russell to take a signing bonus now so that his cap hits stay below 13% going forward, i.e. Aaron Rodgers' deal. $25+ million under the exclusive would be a mammoth commitment to one player, and that would hurt our ability to surround Russell with championship-caliber talent.

(3) The uncertainty in not knowing how much money to leave available for Russell, over the next several years, makes it near impossible to extend other critical players right now. More than half the roster are set to become free agents in 2016.

(4) If we do not cave to the $25+ million exclusive tag, the non-exclusive tag is still an undesirable total . . . and it would provide Russell with his first opportunity to really screw us over by agreeing to ridiculous terms with another team.

We're going to give him 23 million. Therefore, I don't see how 25 million kills you. The distraction part isn't real. Guys are asked time and time again if they care about the contracts of their teammates, and to a man, they always say that this stuff doesn't enter the locker room.

"You're offering 22.5 million. I'm going to hold out and make you pay me on on a 1-year, 25 million dollar deal instead!! Take that!!"

Okay Russ.

If you don't think the mounting uncertainty is going to affect the team's focus, not much I can say to that, other than I hope you're right.

$25+ million is a lot of money to pay to one player. And then what happens the next year when it rises to $30+ million? Perhaps it is "doable," but it would almost certainly have a negative impact on the team's salary cap.

It will be challenging enough to pay Wilson $22 million a year to be the highest paid player in the league. Now we're talking about 114% to 136% above that already-large amount.

My thinking on this is if you're the Seahawks, and you're quite certain that you really don't want to pay 25 APY over the next five years or whatever, taking the tag and going up to 30 for a year kind of gives you an idea of the impact that it is going to have on your team, while only taking a minimal 5 million extra in risk. This leaves your options open and doesn't hurt you all that much more than paying him the 25ish that I think he wants. This way, you can still try to see if you'll be able to get to Super Bowls right in the prime of your window, without sacrificing the long-term health of the franchise. Then, if it looks like it is working, you can extend him. If not, if buys you some time to come up with a backup plan.

I don't think having Russell playing for a contract each of the next three years is necessarily a terrible thing either. Probably less than ideal, but could also prove to get even better play out of him.

Also a chance to see if Wilson develops his weaknesses as a passer, or if he will always be a guy who relies on the broken play and improvisation. He is great at that now......4 or 5 years from now, maybe not as much.....

 

[chris98251]

Wilson can play now, but there ae intangibles, his size, yes he evades well but one time he zigs instead of zags and get a full shot could be the onslaught of more. His insurance I am sure pays a good amount, how nmuch of that does the Agent Father Figure get, I would bet that insurance is not 150 million policy. He has a line that run blocks and doesn't pass block as well, more chances, he is a running QB more chances of a hit,

If your Tom Brady and get rid of the ball fast your chances are better of taking less hits, our system and QB doesn't have the luxury .

Also I hear a lot of people talking, buit little from the Seahawks and or Wilson.

His agent may be playing hardball with Wilson, but we all know a Baseball doesn't hold air and Footballs habe known to get deflated, much like egos of baseball Agents.

 

[rideaducati]

Russell is already refusing to sign a contract. How does refusing to sign an extension give him leverage today? It doesn't. Russell CAN'T force the Seahawks to pay him $25 million next year TODAY. Hell the Seahawks CAN'T put the franchise tag on him today anyway.

Russell is at least two years away from having any leverage at all.

You don't think after this season he has leverage if he hasn't signed an extension?

$25+ million or 16% of the cap under the exclusive tag
vs.
$20+ million or 13% of the cap under the non-exclusive tag, with the ability to agree to terms with a different team.

AFTER this season he'll have a little bit of leverage, but as of NOW, he has zero leverage. He can huff, puff, and blow the house down or hold his breath til he passes out, or laughingly threaten to play out his rookie deal (as if he has a choice to NOT do that) and still be a Seahawk for at least two more seasons.

 

[hawknation2015]

Russell is already refusing to sign a contract. How does refusing to sign an extension give him leverage today? It doesn't. Russell CAN'T force the Seahawks to pay him $25 million next year TODAY. Hell the Seahawks CAN'T put the franchise tag on him today anyway.

Russell is at least two years away from having any leverage at all.

You don't think after this season he has leverage if he hasn't signed an extension?

$25+ million or 16% of the cap under the exclusive tag
vs.
$20+ million or 13% of the cap under the non-exclusive tag, with the ability to agree to terms with a different team.

AFTER this season he'll have a little bit of leverage, but as of NOW, he has zero leverage.

Just because he's under contract this year does not mean he has zero leverage. Leverage can be a future option to take a negative course, i.e. forcing the Seahawks to use the exclusive franchise tag, paying him $25+ million next year.

If he does that, he can stop pretending to be a team-first player and will ultimately end up hurting his own chances to win.

 

[DavidSeven]

I disagree with Rapoport ! And here's why. He (Wilson's agent) will continue to try because, if..... they don't get a deal done now, and Wilson plays with his current contract that less money both will receive over the potential life of Wilson playing career. One less year of a contract of this nature is a lot of money. So this is just using the media as a leveraging tool, that will in the end, will just work in the favor of the Seahawks. And its just one example of how this ding bat agent has no business tring to do a NFL contract. Pure and simple. :177692:

Wilson doesn't make more money by signing an extension now vs. a new deal next year. He just gets his bonus a little earlier if he extends now. If he signs in 2016, then he gets his bonus then plus his new salary. His 2015 salary will likely remain the same in either scenario.

 

[rideaducati]

Leverage in the future is not leverage today. He and his agent could shut down talks and go to the media and claim they are going to wait to get to free agency TODAY and Russell would still be a Seahawk for at least two years. He could throw a fit and start losing games on purpose and no other team would offer him anything if he ever did make it to free agency. He could play GREAT, throw for 10,000 yards and 100 touchdowns this season, be named the MVP of the league and he'll still be a Seahawk for at least two more years. Russell could feign injuries throughout this season and that would hurt his chances of getting any team to pay what he is demanding and he would still be a Seahawk for at least two more years. What I am saying is that Russell can do ANYTHING he wants, good or bad, and he will still be a Seattle Seahawk for AT LEAST TWO MORE YEARS...unless he gets a career ending injury, then he loses out on the millions of dollars that he could have had if he signed a contract.

I'm not worried about Russell not signing at all. It would be dumb of him not to sign this season, but I'm not worried. I won't even worry if he carries on with his stupidity for TWO MORE YEARS...then I'll just be pissed because I thought he was smarter than that.

 

[DavidSeven]

22M/year + signing bonus spread to his rookie contract will come out closer to $20-21M in cap hits on average. $25M/year would be closer to $22-23M in cap hits.

The difference between a $20-22M cap charge vs. $30M+ cap charge (2017 Franchise Tag) is quite significant. That costs you a Bobby Wagner/Earl Thomas caliber player and then some.

Under the franchise approach, Russ will get $1.5M in 2015 and about $25M next year. Then all hell will break loose because Seattle will not be able to withstand that cap charge in 2017 for the franchise tag, even if it's just for one year. This means he's getting a fat contract from someone by at least 2017. It's not really that long to wait, especially for quarterbacks who rarely suffer career ending injuries.

 

[AVL]

Wilson should really apologize for the discomfort he is causing the fan base by not signing a team friendly deal last month.

Football players should play for peanuts anyway. Too many players/ injuries, not enough games to pay the bills.

 

[hawknation2015]

Wilson should really apologize for the discomfort he is causing the fan base by not signing a team friendly deal last month.

Football players should play for peanuts anyway. Too many players/ injuries, not enough games to pay the bills.

 

[DavidSeven]

And I posted this before, but worth noting again: in 2007, Tony Romo bought a $30 million insurance policy for $150K. For the amount of money Russell is going to make, $150K is a drop in the bucket.

He could double the policy ($60M), and the premium would still be chump change for him when it's all said and done. I think people are overestimating the "security" aspect of this.

Bottom-line: either he wants to get a deal done with Seattle or he doesn't. He doesn't make more by signing now, and he doesn't get much more security. Either he wants to make this work or he doesn't. That's all there is to it.

 

[hawknation2015]

And I posted this before, but worth noting again: in 2007, Tony Romo bought a $30 million insurance policy for $150K. For the amount of money Russell is going to make, $150K is a drop in the bucket.

He could double the policy ($60M), and the premium would still be chump change for him when it's all said and done. I think people are overestimating the "security" aspect of this.

Bottom-line: either he wants to get a deal done with Seattle or he doesn't. He doesn't make more by signing now, and he doesn't get much more security. Either he wants to make this work or he doesn't. That's all there is to it.

I agree. If and when he does sign an extension, even in excess of $22 million per year, he would deserve credit for putting the team first, because he certainly could make this process more painful for the team if he chooses to.

 

[bmorepunk]

Wilson should really apologize for the discomfort he is causing the fan base by not signing a team friendly deal last month.

Football players should play for peanuts anyway. Too many players/ injuries, not enough games to pay the bills.

While the internet attributes that phrase to Oscar Wilde, no scholars have been able to find any evidence that he ever said it. People often use it to claim that Wilde would say that sarcasm is simple, yet Wilde himself was quite sarcastic.

 

[IndyHawk]

Unless of course JS doesn't value RW in the way we think he should or might.

Wouldn't surprise me to find out that the FO has a line in the sand that they aren't willing to cross...now or ever.

Debating the intelligence of such a stance is worthy, but the FO beats to their own drum, they value defense and running games, they have A LOT of superstars on the roster....and RW has some question marks, valid ones.

Maybe RW has leverage in most cases....but here? I don't know.

JS was beside himself with exuberant anticipation about getting "RW" in the Draft, and Pete Carroll designating him as the starter over Flynn & Jackson in his Rookie outing, + the culminating results of all three Seasons with him at the helm, and you honestly believe that JS doesn't see his value?

This "Running Game" is most effective BECAUSE of the numbers that Russell Wilson has helped to add to it, it is NOT all Marshawn Lynch's doing.

The Seahawks Defense is the absolute best, bar none, with no arguments, but, they are not of and by themselves, the only reason for the culminated success.

A lot of the blame for the loss in Super Bowl 49, was laid on RW, but, most people seem to have amnesia when it comes to the Patriots coming back from a 10 point deficit (against the Seahawks vaunted Defense) to secure the win.

As I see it, there are too many here, that want to downplay Russell Wilson's value, to fit their end of the argument, and even going so far as trying to crystal ball what JS & Co. think of him, to hedge their beliefs on the matter.

If you look from an another angle, the defense kept the team in play for the NFC championship game. If you look at the totality of all games played over Petes tenure as a the coach, the defense was a bigger element on taking the ball over and giving it to the offense. There were so many 3 and outs and Bevell hating in the not too distant future. The defense wins championships, if the team was built in the philosophy of an high octane offense, I would readily agree with the thought process. If we don't have a stellar defense, Russel would be sitting on the sidelines instead of being on the field IMHO.

You're side-stepping one facet of the argument, in that a lot of those "3 And Outs" were because Russell Wilson has had to rely on his non-#1 Receivers to get somewhat open, hence, his nearly 900 Yards of tucking the ball in, and running for it.
Contrary to the worn out adage of "Defense Wins Championships", it would be way more accurate, and honest to say that Defenses HELP to win Championships.

It's still a fact that the Seahawks had a 10 point advantage for quite awhile in 49, but it was the Defense that couldn't hold Brady from eating up the deficit.

It's going to be interesting to see what kind of Season Wilson will have with the likes of Jimmy Graham on board.
The Offensive line has been pretty damned decent at pushing the running game up the ranks, but they pretty much suck at QB protection.

Kearse wasn't making the catches (interceptions) NFCCG, that's not all on RW, but ultimately, he managed to compete, and helped to get the win.

IF Wilson and his Agent are being unreasonable in negotiations, we will find out when all comes to light.
Until I hear the particulars, I'm not on board with putting all the blame on Wilson for the hold-ups.

See that Super Bowl QB list posted earlier?Do you see a bad defense in there?Defense wins Championships!Yes the Seattle D blew a 10 point lead late but you have to recall all the injuries the D had prior and during the game.Do not fool yourself believing that didn't matter.

 

[hawknation2015]

Wilson should really apologize for the discomfort he is causing the fan base by not signing a team friendly deal last month.

Football players should play for peanuts anyway. Too many players/ injuries, not enough games to pay the bills.

While the internet attributes that phrase to Oscar Wilde, no scholars have been able to find any evidence that he ever said it. People often use it to claim that Wilde would say that sarcasm is simple, yet Wilde himself was quite sarcastic.

If he did say it, he was probably being sarcastic. Anyway, as a debating tactic, not a form of comedy, it is pretty much meaningless and highly dependent on red herrings and straw men.

 

[scutterhawk]

You're going to play a one-year deal for 1.5 with no guarantees behind it? Sure you are. Bluff called.

If you read up on his agent and how he operates.. I think he absolutely is about to do that.

Rodgers wants Wilson to hit FA. He knows that can't be put off forever with the way the franchise tag works. Yes, we have Wilson for 2 seasons .. but then 2017 rolls around and the franchise is put in a really tough spot.

So again, barring Wilson having a change of heart and telling Rodgers to cut the crap.. I think this is going to turn into a very weird thing. I don't want to say "ugly" because he could just as well sign the big deal next offseason. But I would be flat out shocked if this gets done in the next 13 days. Every single one of Mark Rodgers big clients has essentially "bet on himself" and let their deal play out. Doesn't matter if they play baseball, this is the agent's philosophy.. and apparently Russell sees him as a father figure.

On the flip side of your argument, if what we're hearing about all the Guaranteed money stuff is true, then Rodgers has to be making the assumption, that there is another team that will jump at the chance of inking Wilson to a radical contract....What if there isn't? he could be doing RW a disservice by taking these negotiations to the deep end.
It's easy to speculate on what he might be inclined to do with cat & mouse negotiations tactics as he has done with Pro Baseball players, but this is the NFL, with CAP restrictions, so he has to revamp his mindset and put aside his own ego if he's going to maximize what he can get for Russell Wilson.
Free Agency for one venue isn't the same as the other, and there's a lot more at stake than some Agent's Ego.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

Wilson should really apologize for the discomfort he is causing the fan base by not signing a team friendly deal last month.

I'd be happy to send him the cost of my ulcer prevention medicine.

 

[rideaducati]

And I posted this before, but worth noting again: in 2007, Tony Romo bought a $30 million insurance policy for $150K. For the amount of money Russell is going to make, $150K is a drop in the bucket.

He could double the policy ($60M), and the premium would still be chump change for him when it's all said and done. I think people are overestimating the "security" aspect of this.

Bottom-line: either he wants to get a deal done with Seattle or he doesn't. He doesn't make more by signing now, and he doesn't get much more security. Either he wants to make this work or he doesn't. That's all there is to it.

The costs of insurance like that is usually $10,000 to $15,000 per $1Million of coverage. Sure, it would be a drop in the bucket, but an unnecessary expenditure nonetheless.

Let's use your numbers anyway and say that Russell gets an insurance policy of $60 million in coverage and pays $300,000 and doesn't have to use it. That $300,000 is now gone. If Russell then gets the franchise tag next season, he will need to purchase another year's worth of insurance. Let's say he doesn't use the insurance again. Now $600,000 is gone.

Had Russell signed a contract and not had to buy that insurance, he would have had signing bonus money to collect interest on. I'll go with a small signing bonus of $25 million. Uncle same gets his share and the agent gets his share, so Russell would have around $15 million. $15 million collecting a meager 2% comes out to $300,000. Double that for the two years he would have the money working for him and you have $600,000. The exact same amount as the insurance policy. Now since he wouldn't have to buy that insurance policy and instead would have earned the same amount on just interest, there is a difference of $1.2 million in his pocket. Peanuts.

Going by what we've heard, the Seahawks have offered 4/87 deal. For simplicity, I'll go with 4/88 with 25mil signing bonus. In my scenario, Russell will make $56.5 million over the next three years. 25 bonus + two years of extension at 15.75/year + 1.6 due this season.

Basing the franchise tag number on John Clayton's number of $20 next year and 120% the following year plus the $1.6 due this year, Russell would make $45.6 million over the next three seasons by not signing an extension.

So, what Russell has to decide is, is it worth it to not sign a contract extension now?

$45.6 - insurance and loss of interest on signing bonus ($1.2 million) = $44.4 million
OR
$56.5 + not paying insurance and collecting interest ($1.2 million) = $57.7 million

If this scenario is close to what actually happens, Russell will be chasing $13.3 million into his next contract. On a future 4 year deal, he would have to sign for MORE THAN $25,325,000 per year and still wouldn't catch up to the amount lost until the fourth year.

Now, let's use outrageous franchise tag numbers that are more unlikely than not of $25 next year and 120% the following year plus the $1.6 due this year.

$56.6 - insurance and loss of interest on signing bonus ($1.2 million) = $55.4 million
OR
$56.5 + not paying insurance and collecting interest ($1.2 million) = $57.7 million

If this scenario is close to what actually happens, Russell will be chasing $2.3 million into his next contract. On a future 4 year deal he would only have to sign for a meager $22,575,000 per year to catch up to the amount lost by the fourth year.

Like I've been saying all along, it makes no sense for Russell to not sign an extension this season. Signing now gets him to free agency sooner and will give everyone peace of mind on the future. The deal will be done soon.

 

[scutterhawk]

See that Super Bowl QB list posted earlier?Do you see a bad defense in there?Defense wins Championships!Yes the Seattle D blew a 10 point lead late but you have to recall all the injuries the D had prior and during the game.Do not fool yourself believing that didn't matter.

And "Don't Fool Yourself Believing" that it all the wins were with just the Defenses ALONE.
You'd try and have us believe that all wins across the board are because of Defenses only, I ain't buying.
If you look at that list objectively, you'll notice that there were some World class Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends & RB's amongst the bunch.

 

[hawknation2015]

Now, let's use outrageous franchise tag numbers that are more unlikely than not of $25 next year and 120% the following year plus the $1.6 due this year.

$56.6 - insurance and loss of interest on signing bonus ($1.2 million) = $55.4 million
OR
$56.5 + not paying insurance and collecting interest ($1.2 million) = $57.7 million

If this scenario is close to what actually happens, Russell will be chasing $2.3 million into his next contract. On a future 4 year deal he would only have to sign for a meager $22,575,000 per year to catch up to the amount lost by the fourth year.

Like I've been saying all along, it makes no sense for Russell to not sign an extension this season. Signing now gets him to free agency sooner and will give everyone peace of mind on the future. The deal will be done soon.

Now play this hypothetical out through the life of the four-year extension.

If he signs this hypothetical four-year extension for $22 million per year, with a $25 million signing bonus, he would make an average of around $15.75 million in years three and four. However, if he refuses to sign an extension over the next two years, capitalizing on two exclusive franchise tags, he could then sign an enormous deal worth (conservatively) $25 million per year before the 2018 season. With a (conservatively estimated) $30 million signing bonus, his take-home in 2018, when accounting for base salary, would then be at least double what he would have made had he signed that extension. His base pay in 2019 would also be substantially larger than the $15.75 million average under the proposed extension. That's (a conservatively-estimated) $25+ million more over two years that could be extracted by playing hardball.

I don't think there's any doubt that if Russell wants to absolutely maximize his value, without regard for the headaches and cap issues it will create for his team, he could do it by refusing to sign an extension at the current rate.

 

[rideaducati]

Now, let's use outrageous franchise tag numbers that are more unlikely than not of $25 next year and 120% the following year plus the $1.6 due this year.

$56.6 - insurance and loss of interest on signing bonus ($1.2 million) = $55.4 million
OR
$56.5 + not paying insurance and collecting interest ($1.2 million) = $57.7 million

If this scenario is close to what actually happens, Russell will be chasing $2.3 million into his next contract. On a future 4 year deal he would only have to sign for a meager $22,575,000 per year to catch up to the amount lost by the fourth year.

Like I've been saying all along, it makes no sense for Russell to not sign an extension this season. Signing now gets him to free agency sooner and will give everyone peace of mind on the future. The deal will be done soon.

Now play this hypothetical out through the life of the four-year extension.

If he signs this hypothetical four-year extension for $22 million per year, with a $25 million signing bonus, he would make an average of around $15.75 million in years three and four. However, if he refuses to sign an extension over the next two years, capitalizing on two exclusive franchise tags, he could then sign an enormous deal worth (conservatively) $25 million per year before the 2018 season. With a (conservatively estimated) $30 million signing bonus, his take-home in 2018, when accounting for base salary, would then be at least double what he would have made had he signed that extension. His base pay in 2019 would also be substantially larger than the $15.75 million average under the proposed extension. That's (a conservatively-estimated) $25+ million more over two years that could be extracted by playing hardball.

I don't think there's any doubt that if Russell wants to absolutely maximize his value, without regard for the headaches and cap issues it will create for his team, he could do it by refusing to sign an extension.

Yes he could.

The $25 million signing bonus he would have received THIS year would likely be at or above the worth of a $30 million signing bonus in three years and if he does sign for $25 million/year he would still be chasing lost money into his second season under his new deal. Plus, he would then be two years further from reaching another big payday assuming he stays at or rises above his current level of play.

All of this makes for fun conversation, but I don't think Russell will make it that difficult or take such a big risk for such a small percentage gain.