SalishHawkFan
New member
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2009
- Messages
- 5,872
- Reaction score
- 0
Someone on Kips Farewell Cruel World thread suggested we each contribute a single random thought. I think that's a great idea. Each of us post something on this thread about one aspect of the game. A single play, perhaps, or how we did in a certain aspect of the game. Anyways, here's mine:
The oline is hurting Lynch too.
The Colts - per Football Outsiders - have the 28th ranked rush defense in the league. We put up TWO 100 yard rushers (Lynch and Wilson) against them. But in the second half, Lynch disappeared. 5 carries. Some say the Colts awesome 28th ranked rush defense made halftime adjustments and shut him down. Some say the coaches abandoned the run. I find the latter more believable personally. Here's why:
Through 5 games Lynch only ranks 18th in DYAR. That's his gross production. But worse, he ranks 20th in DVOA. That's how well he is doing per play. And even more troubling, his effective yards are less than his actual yards, meaning he's doing worse than his basic stats would lead you to believe. Finally - and most telling of all - his success rate is actually his lowest ranked stat. He's just 23rd in the league in success rate. That measures a players consistency. How much of that is Lynch's fault? Most of it is the lines fault. The oline has a power ranking of 28th in the league. So Lynch is doing better than the oline would allow an average replacement player. In second level yards and open field yards, the running game ranks 13th and 10th respectively. That's due to Lynch being Beast Mode.
But he's not getting to the second level consistently.
Turbin is even worse. Much worse.
Only one lineman is doing his job at getting our guys a running lane. Carp. The Hawks are ranked 10th in the NFL when running off the left guard. Either end is horrid, netting @ 2.5 ypc.
Carroll abandoned his run first philosophy in the second half. Why? Because he's a realist. Lynch isn't going to break many big plays and with that oline, the Hawks can't sustain a drive. That's why they are 25th in the league in TD/FG at 1.08. Meaning if they score, it's 50/50 they'll kick a FG or get a TD. Considering that they have the second best starting field position in the league, that's a horrendous stat.
Remember, this is just one Random Thought of the Colts game. The idea is that each person put down their own Random Thought on another aspect of the game as they saw it. Anybody got film of one of those bogus non-calls?
The oline is hurting Lynch too.
The Colts - per Football Outsiders - have the 28th ranked rush defense in the league. We put up TWO 100 yard rushers (Lynch and Wilson) against them. But in the second half, Lynch disappeared. 5 carries. Some say the Colts awesome 28th ranked rush defense made halftime adjustments and shut him down. Some say the coaches abandoned the run. I find the latter more believable personally. Here's why:
Through 5 games Lynch only ranks 18th in DYAR. That's his gross production. But worse, he ranks 20th in DVOA. That's how well he is doing per play. And even more troubling, his effective yards are less than his actual yards, meaning he's doing worse than his basic stats would lead you to believe. Finally - and most telling of all - his success rate is actually his lowest ranked stat. He's just 23rd in the league in success rate. That measures a players consistency. How much of that is Lynch's fault? Most of it is the lines fault. The oline has a power ranking of 28th in the league. So Lynch is doing better than the oline would allow an average replacement player. In second level yards and open field yards, the running game ranks 13th and 10th respectively. That's due to Lynch being Beast Mode.
But he's not getting to the second level consistently.
Turbin is even worse. Much worse.
Only one lineman is doing his job at getting our guys a running lane. Carp. The Hawks are ranked 10th in the NFL when running off the left guard. Either end is horrid, netting @ 2.5 ypc.
Carroll abandoned his run first philosophy in the second half. Why? Because he's a realist. Lynch isn't going to break many big plays and with that oline, the Hawks can't sustain a drive. That's why they are 25th in the league in TD/FG at 1.08. Meaning if they score, it's 50/50 they'll kick a FG or get a TD. Considering that they have the second best starting field position in the league, that's a horrendous stat.
Remember, this is just one Random Thought of the Colts game. The idea is that each person put down their own Random Thought on another aspect of the game as they saw it. Anybody got film of one of those bogus non-calls?