Poll: Trade Russ for draft picks?

[TwistedHusky]

Trading Russ for draft picks is pretty terrible as ideas go.

Obviously the cap hit is an issue but draft picks are best case a 1 in 3 and more likely a 1 in 5 success rate for QBs, in getting an elite QB. This of course assumes you have the first pick.

I can see looking for a backup you can groom to be a successor, especially understanding the issues that exist with Wilson. But you most likely end up trading for picks that turn into nothing, because our track record with the 1st round picks is not tremendously good.

I don't consider Wilson elite. But he is upper tier and the ability to replace him is very unlikely.

The idea of replacing him while your defense is no longer going to be able to be the strength of your team? Just crazy.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Darnold/Rosen/Allen > Wilson

Yikes.

Height is the only thing those three are > than Russell.

Go through any stat you want, tangible and intangible, and Russell's superior. Arm strength, accuracy, footwork, speed, quickness, football IQ, experience, preparation habits.............you name it.

You draft a rookie QB, and not only do you not have Russell, but you just signed yourself up for at least 3-4 seasons of below .500 football, and longer if the new QB doesn't work out.

By reading this Wilson is almost flawless. :roll: An honest evaluation would say he does have good arm strength. Average accuracy. Very poor footwork. Good speed. Great quickness. Average at best football iq.

If he is going to want top tier money trading him now would be smart as we aren’t going to be in a position to make a SB run while he is in his current contract anyways. Would be a big mistake to pay a second tier an first tier money.

See that's the difference between our posts. You're stating an incorrect opinion based on a bias against Russell, and I'm using actual stats.

Use any metric you want over the past 5-6 years, QBR, accuracy, TD to interception ratio, etc..........and then find any qualified opinion you want as far as the intangibles I mentioned (footwork, speed, quickness, clutch in 4th quarter, football IQ, etc, and it's off the charts.

In no way is Russell perfect, but when someone comes in here with some weaksauce troll like Darnold/Rosen/Allen > Wilson? You better back it up, because it's a GARBAGE opinion based on nothing other than "hey I think I'll troll these guys, then log off."

Money post! :2thumbs:

 

[MrThortan]

Russ is my favorite player. I love the guy. My first thought was "absolutely not", but then I read the draft picks again. Since my imagination started to ponder, decided that deserved a "I'd think about it" vote. Really though, no. Just not "absolutely" no haha

 

[IndyHawk]

Darnold/Rosen/Allen > Wilson

Yikes.

Height is the only thing those three are > than Russell.

Go through any stat you want, tangible and intangible, and Russell's superior. Arm strength, accuracy, footwork, speed, quickness, football IQ, experience, preparation habits.............you name it.

You draft a rookie QB, and not only do you not have Russell, but you just signed yourself up for at least 3-4 seasons of below .500 football, and longer if the new QB doesn't work out.

By reading this Wilson is almost flawless. :roll: An honest evaluation would say he does have good arm strength. Average accuracy. Very poor footwork. Good speed. Great quickness. Average at best football iq.

If he is going to want top tier money trading him now would be smart as we aren’t going to be in a position to make a SB run while he is in his current contract anyways. Would be a big mistake to pay a second tier an first tier money.

Superior everything Sgt???
I got to agree with Hawkman on footwork and accuracy(In first half of game)anyway.
The IQ can be debated sometimes..

 

[hawkman]

All-Time NFL Passer Rating Career Leaders
1. Aaron Rodgers, 103.8, 2005-2017
2. Russell Wilson, 98.8, 2012-2017
3. Tom Brady, 97.6, 2000-2017
4. Tony Romo, 97.1, 2004-2016
5. Steve Young, 96.8, 1985-1999
6. Drew Brees, 96.7, 2001-2017
7. Peyton Manning, 96.5, 1998-2015

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... career.htm

How does Wilson’s passer rating look if he throws the ball away the hundreds of times he should have instead of taking the sack or running out of bounce? Basic stats don’t tell the whole story. A tier one qb can throw to the middle of the field out of the pocket. Wilson needs a special game plan to work around his shortcomings.

 

[AF_BASS_MAN]

Honestly....I am of the belief that we got more lucky than anything on drafts of the past that resulted in the stars aligning and giving us the LOB and RW.

Due to that I don’t see trading Wilson as a benefit to us, as I don’t see us doing anything with those picks to make us better.

So better to try to add talent around him.

 

[IndyHawk]

Trading Russ for draft picks is pretty terrible as ideas go.

Obviously the cap hit is an issue but draft picks are best case a 1 in 3 and more likely a 1 in 5 success rate for QBs, in getting an elite QB. This of course assumes you have the first pick.

I can see looking for a backup you can groom to be a successor, especially understanding the issues that exist with Wilson. But you most likely end up trading for picks that turn into nothing, because our track record with the 1st round picks is not tremendously good.

I don't consider Wilson elite. But he is upper tier and the ability to replace him is very unlikely.

The idea of replacing him while your defense is no longer going to be able to be the strength of your team? Just crazy.

Good post..
I can understand the FO track record in drafting part.
The thing is eventually something has to give..How does it work stacking
a poor D and a porus offense around him for 3-5 years till it fills up to
a playoff team?
He will no longer be this houdini you see today and luck with injuries
won't likely keep going as he ages.
@32-35 million and only reason to watch will be him literally.
I can just see it being like the Lions and Matt Stafford.
Too many holes with a Pro Bowler here and there but
that seems ok with some as long as we have a top tier QB.

 

[hawknation2018]

All-Time NFL Passer Rating Career Leaders
1. Aaron Rodgers, 103.8, 2005-2017
2. Russell Wilson, 98.8, 2012-2017
3. Tom Brady, 97.6, 2000-2017
4. Tony Romo, 97.1, 2004-2016
5. Steve Young, 96.8, 1985-1999
6. Drew Brees, 96.7, 2001-2017
7. Peyton Manning, 96.5, 1998-2015

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... career.htm

How does Wilson’s passer rating look if he throws the ball away the hundreds of times he should have instead of taking the sack or running out of bounce? Basic stats don’t tell the whole story. A tier one qb can throw to the middle of the field out of the pocket. Wilson needs a special game plan to work around his shortcomings.

LOL, what would Wilson's passer rating look like if he had an average offensive line?

Wilson has had to scramble for his life and throw a ton of passes away due to the continual breakdowns in his protection. He threw 33 passes away last season, which was the 2nd most in the league behind Phillip Rivers.

He is a tier 1 QB; that is without a doubt. 2nd all-time in QB rating, four-time Pro Bowler, Super Bowl Champion, eight playoff victories, 3rd most 4th quarter comebacks in the playoffs in NFL history, shattered the NFL record for most TD passes in the 4th quarter, led the league in TDs and 2nd in total yards in 2017 (without an adequate offensive line, running game, or play caller).

 

[Sports Hernia]

All-Time NFL Passer Rating Career Leaders
1. Aaron Rodgers, 103.8, 2005-2017
2. Russell Wilson, 98.8, 2012-2017
3. Tom Brady, 97.6, 2000-2017
4. Tony Romo, 97.1, 2004-2016
5. Steve Young, 96.8, 1985-1999
6. Drew Brees, 96.7, 2001-2017
7. Peyton Manning, 96.5, 1998-2015

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... career.htm

How does Wilson’s passer rating look if he throws the ball away the hundreds of times he should have instead of taking the sack or running out of bounce? Basic stats don’t tell the whole story. A tier one qb can throw to the middle of the field out of the pocket. Wilson needs a special game plan to work around his shortcomings.

LOL, what would Wilson's passer rating look like if he had an average offensive line?

Wilson has had to scramble for his life and throw a ton of passes away due to the continual breakdowns in his protection.

He is a tier 1 QB; that is without a doubt. 2nd all-time in QB rating, four-time Pro Bowler, Super Bowl Champion, eight playoff victories, 3rd most 4th quarter comebacks in the playoffs in NFL history, shattered the NFL record for most TD passes in the 4th quarter, led the league in TDs and 2nd in total yards in 2017 (without an adequate offensive line, running game, or play caller).

Another question is how will Russ look with a competent OL coach and competent OC, that gameplan better and are better playcallers. My guess is he will look quite a bit better without the 2 anchors of former offensive coaches holding him down.

Hawks have been a one demensional offense since the season of XLIX, with hardly any running game outside a flash from Rawls before he got hurt.

I expect that to change with Solari and Schotty.

 

[SkyHawks16]

I just saw a thread on Reddit where the Jets were willing to give anything for Cousins. Wilson > Cousins imagine if he hits the FA, or has a say on his trade, Wilson can get everything and more while the Seahawks are stuck being 5-11. We had almost everyone besides Bobby and Russell in 2011 that we won the SB with, still went 7-9, but muuuh picks though. As if franchise QBs grow on trees.

 

[TwistedHusky]

The problem is that without Wilson we are a 5 win team.

WITH Wilson, we are a 9 win team.

Is the 30M a year worth 4 extra wins? Especially if we are not making the playoffs?

More importantly, with what Cousins is going to do to the QB market - what would it even cost to get a reasonable but more limited QB? You might not be saving as much as you think if you traded Wilson. Because whatever you bring in to replace him is going to cost you and this is the FO that likes to give guys like Lacey 8M and Joekel 9M.

I don't for a minute believe that Wilson is worth $30M a year. But if a crappier QB costs you 15M a year...

 

[oldhawkfan]

I just saw a thread on Reddit where the Jets were willing to give anything for Cousins. Wilson > Cousins imagine if he hits the FA, or has a say on his trade, Wilson can get everything and more while the Seahawks are stuck being 5-11. We had almost everyone besides Bobby and Russell in 2011 that we won the SB with, still went 7-9, but muuuh picks though. As if franchise QBs grow on trees.

There are some fans who look at draft picks as the magic potion for building a team. The higher the pick in the first round, the more sure fire all pro all world difference maker. It seems as though these same people fail to realize that there are 6 other rounds from which to choose players, as well as unstated free agents and free agency itself. A high pick is no guarantee of success for any team. Roughly 30%-50% of 1st round picks are out of the league shortly after 4th their draft year.
One only needs to look at some of the history of this team in acquiring talent. High 1st round busts in Rick Mirer(#2 ) Aaron Curry(#4) and Steve Niehaus (#2) half a dozen mid 1st busts and handful of late 1st round busts.
In terms of team assets, Russell Wilson is if not the top asset he is at the very least top 2 or 3. And as most football experts would agree, QB is the most important position to have that asset.
You don't get rid of the player who excels at the most important position on a football team for the hope of maybe getting something close in return.

 

[Sports Hernia]

I just saw a thread on Reddit where the Jets were willing to give anything for Cousins. Wilson > Cousins imagine if he hits the FA, or has a say on his trade, Wilson can get everything and more while the Seahawks are stuck being 5-11. We had almost everyone besides Bobby and Russell in 2011 that we won the SB with, still went 7-9, but muuuh picks though. As if franchise QBs grow on trees.

There are some fans who look at draft picks as the magic potion for building a team. The higher the pick in the first round, the more sure fire all pro all world difference maker. It seems as though these same people fail to realize that there are 6 other rounds from which to choose players, as well as unstated free agents and free agency itself. A high pick is no guarantee of success for any team. Roughly 30%-50% of 1st round picks are out of the league shortly after 4th their draft year.
One only needs to look at some of the history of this team in acquiring talent. High 1st round busts in Rick Mirer(#2 ) Aaron Curry(#4) and Steve Niehaus (#2) half a dozen mid 1st busts and handful of late 1st round busts.
In terms of team assets, Russell Wilson is if not the top asset he is at the very least top 2 or 3. And as most football experts would agree, QB is the most important position to have that asset.
You don't get rid of the player who excels at the most important position on a football team for the hope of maybe getting something close in return.

Great post! A lot of fools gold out there in any draft. Even the best GM’s whiff a lot on picks. Aaron Curry was as “can’t miss” as you can get, a concensus pick at 4, a physical freak, turned out he had little desire to play football after getting his draft bonus. The draft and draft picks really are a crap shoot, much more so than many want to admit.

 

[Sports Hernia]

All-Time NFL Passer Rating Career Leaders
1. Aaron Rodgers, 103.8, 2005-2017
2. Russell Wilson, 98.8, 2012-2017
3. Tom Brady, 97.6, 2000-2017
4. Tony Romo, 97.1, 2004-2016
5. Steve Young, 96.8, 1985-1999
6. Drew Brees, 96.7, 2001-2017
7. Peyton Manning, 96.5, 1998-2015

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... career.htm

How does Wilson’s passer rating look if he throws the ball away the hundreds of times he should have instead of taking the sack or running out of bounce? Basic stats don’t tell the whole story. A tier one qb can throw to the middle of the field out of the pocket. Wilson needs a special game plan to work around his shortcomings.

LOL, what would Wilson's passer rating look like if he had an average offensive line?

Wilson has had to scramble for his life and throw a ton of passes away due to the continual breakdowns in his protection.

He is a tier 1 QB; that is without a doubt. 2nd all-time in QB rating, four-time Pro Bowler, Super Bowl Champion, eight playoff victories, 3rd most 4th quarter comebacks in the playoffs in NFL history, shattered the NFL record for most TD passes in the 4th quarter, led the league in TDs and 2nd in total yards in 2017 (without an adequate offensive line, running game, or play caller).

Another question is how will Russ look with a competent OL coach and competent OC, that gameplan better and are better playcallers. My guess is he will look quite a bit better without the 2 anchors of former offensive coaches holding him down.

Hawks have been a one demensional offense since the season of XLIX, with hardly any running game outside a flash from Rawls before he got hurt.

 

[brimsalabim]

I’d like to see him play somewhere where he is appriciated.

 

[chris98251]

I’d like to see him play somewhere where he is appriciated.

Tanzania?

 

[original poster]

this is the FO that likes to give guys like Lacey 8M and Joekel 9M.

Lacy was nowhere near $8m. $4.25m to be precise.

Joeckel was also $8m, not $9m.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

He's plenty appreciated by the team, and many of the fans. At least the ones who actually get how good he is

 

[bmorepunk]

The top 15 cap hits for QBs (before the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes and whatever craziness might happen with Brees and the Vikings QBs) are all 19 million or more. Wilson's is almost 24. The top 19 are still 16 million or more. And that includes Glennon, Tannehill, and Bortles. So the best any team has with a veteran, starting QB right now is 8 million in cap savings relative to Wilson.

The probability of hitting on a QB even when you can pick any given one isn't good. Ignoring last year's rookies because of a lack of time, Goff and Wentz seem to be doing really well. Winston and Mariotta are no Wilson. Then work your way back through the first round QBs through the next decade. I see six guys in there that are on Wilson's level or better. That's out of about 30 selections.

Even mediocre QBs are hard to come by; that's why a good to great QB will cost a lot. And Russell Wilson is not mediocre.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

His deal looks like a bargain now. That's just how it works, next big name up gets the huge $ deal and it just keeping bringing it up. Soon, 30 mil will be the norm for a top notch QB. Crazy