SalishHawkFan":c6au1qy9 said:
A lot of people seem to think the Eagles have a below average defense. FO lists them as the 8th best defense. Seattle is listed at 7th.
That's a good defense.
It's their offense I think is beatable. It's not done as well vs good defenses. 20 pts. That's what I give them. Which means we have to do better.
I would tend to agree with that assessment overall. I would say that the Eagles DO have a fairly good defense overall (as you mentioned, Football Outsiders has them ranked 8th, right behind us). One problem that I guess I have is with Chip Kelly's philosophy in general, as I'm wondering just how sustainable his system ultimately can be in the NFL. Kelly's offense is predicated on tempo, spreading defenses out, and scoring quickly. The numbers bear that out. Here is a comparison of where the Seahawks and Eagles rank in terms of time of possession this year ...
Seahawks -- 7th in Time of Possession (average of 31:25 per game)
Eagles -- 29th in Time of Possession (average of 27:45 per game)
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-time-of-possession-net-of-ot
Kelly's offense strikes me as being somewhat similar to another that I remember was in vogue during the early 1990s -- The Run and Shoot. Mouse Davis developed that spread offensive system while at Portland State and brought it to the NFL with the Lions. Using the run and shoot, the Lions racked up tons of passing yards and were a prolific offense early on. They went 12-4 in 1991 w/Barry Sanders and a very potent passing attack. Soon, the Falcons and Oilers joined them in using the Run and Shoot. Teams using that kind of a spread attack and high tempo offense could rack up the yards and score quickly ... but they ended up having issues holding the lead. Why is that?
Well, one of the flaws inherent in that kind of a system was that it didn't give their own team's defense enough time to rest. Those teams had good running backs, but their offense wasn't predicated on running the ball and milking the clock. As a result, defenses of the teams who employed the Run and Shoot tended to be on the field quite a bit. So, by the 3rd and 4th Quarter -- many of those guys were just flat out gassed and opposing teams were able to come back on them. The best example of that being the Oilers, who in 1992 had a 35-3 Lead at Halftime over the Bills in the AFC Wild Card Game. Unbelievably, they ended up losing to the Bills 41-38 in Overtime. The Lions and other teams had similar examples of games just like that -- which is why the Run and Shoot virtually disappeared by the Mid to late 1990s.
And I see some similarities with Kelly's system and similar effects that it appears to be having with the Eagle's defense ...
The Eagles are allowing an average of 258.6 Passing Yards/Game (ranked #28 overall) ... and are allowing an average of 107.7 Rushing Yards/Game (ranked #13 overall).
Opposing teams have rushed the ball 332 times against the Eagles (tied for 5th most attempts against) ... and have passed it 447 times against them (3rd most attempts against). Those numbers make sense, as the Eagles' defense is on the field more than most. One reason I would say that they are allowing 7.6 yards/pass attempt (Tied for 20th) is that their defense is on the field so much of the time (and as fatigue sets in, the yards allowed go up.).
The last thing I'd say we want is to get in to a shootout. That said, things could get interesting if it goes that way. As always, the key to victory is going to be Marshawn Lynch, controlling the time of possession (something we've been very good at) and keeping that prolific offense off the field. The Eagles are averaging just 3.9 yards/carry allowed (ranks 9th in the NFL). The offensive line is going to have to bring their A Game to the party. Should be interesting. We've got 9 days to stew over this one folks.
