Pete and Bevell need to open up the passing game more

[onanygivensunday]

Well, I've been over at the Donkey's chat forums jousting with their fanbase about where Russell should be ranked on the Top Ten current QB list... and in particular, one poster alleges that Russell's passing stats benefit from being on a run-first team because if he weren't and had to throw the ball more often, his passing efficiency would suffer... like his completion %, his ratio of TDs to INTs,, his passing rating and his yards/attempt... I cried BS yet he persisted in his claims so I did some research. My response back to him follows... but I'll quickly insert... Russel should be allowed to throw the ball more often.

Originally Posted by fallforward3y: Look, Wilson is a good and good efficient QB, but acting as if it's just as easy to maintain efficiency if your throwing 40 passes a game as with 25 is simply ridiculous.

My response: Well, Wilson has never thrown 40 times in a game... at least, not yet.

The closest he has come is 37 times in a week 13 game in his rookie year (2012) against Chicago... a 23-17 win in OT. Wilson was 23 for 37 for 293 yards, 62.2% completion %, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and with a passer rating of 104.9. His 2 TDs sent the game into OT and then won the game in OT without the Bears ever getting the ball. The 2 drives were 80+ yards each.

Next closest was 36 times in a heart-breaking 28-30 divisional playoff loss to Atlanta also in 2012. He was 24 for 36 for 385 yards, 66.7%, 2 TDs, 1 INT and with a passer rating of 109.1.

Next was a 24-28 loss also in 2012 in Detroit. In that game he was 25 for 35 for 236 yards, 71.4%, 2 TDs, 1 INT and with a passer rating of 96.8.

In addition to the above 3, Wilson has had 5 more games wherein he passed 30 or more times.

His record in the eight games is 4-4, his completion % is 65.6%, his TD/INT ratio is 13/4, his passer rating is 100.7 and he averaged 270.5 yards/game.

In 2013, that yards/game average would place him in 8th place right behind Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.

You see, Wilson has shown he can maintain his efficiency at least out to 37 passing attempts per game... and if Carroll ever changes his run-first philosophy, Wilson will be among the elite passers in the game today... fantasy football stats-wise.

What is your opinion... should Russell be allowed to throw the ball somewhere between 30 and 35 times/game?...

 

[Hawknballs]

so he should be allowed to throw the ball more so you can win a debate with other team's fans?

 

[Cartire]

Its weird, because I keep having to remind myself who won the superbowl this year, and the offensive philosophy they had.

Why would we change up a proven system? How about we wait to fix it when it breaks.

 

[Hawknballs]

but the broncos fans . ..what will they think???

I guess it should only count for half a lombardi because we play football instead of catch.

 

[Ad Hawk]

He'll continue at a high level, no matter how many passes he throws. Every down is it's own opportunity and he'll seize it. In fact, I'd argue that his lower # of passes per game even more dramatically illustrates his efficiency; he's never allowed to really get into the rhythm of guys throwing it 40-45 times/game.

Remember the Dolphins loss where he had something like 16 straight completions? We'll see more of that kind of thing now that we have the speed weapons to counter the blitz. If the line gives him more than 1.78 seconds to throw? 70% completions, not matter how many times he drops back per game.

Bring it on!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Complaining about the team after the Superbowl Title makes zero sense.

 

[IBleedBlueAndGreen]

We win the Super Bowl, and obviously have a system in place that is successful. Yet you think Russell "should be allowed to throw the ball 30 to 35 times per game" because he isn't statistically in the upper echelon of QBs?

If Russell cares more about victories than personal stats maybe you should too. Just sayin'.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Why would we change up a proven system? How about we wait to fix it when it breaks.

This is exactly what doesn't work. See: Broncos offensive game play for Super Bowl XLVIII.

We should pass more for very legitimate reasons unrelated to puffing up DangeRuss's stats/image.

 

[Hawknballs]

"Malcolm Smith, you and the Seahawks have just won the Superbowl! What are you gonna do next?"

"I don't know. I don't know, but probably we should revamp our offensive identity and get away from the you know - you know the formula that got us here. Possibly throw the ball fifty times a game because that's just neat."

 

[Uncle Si]

I guess it should only count for half a lombardi because we play football instead of catch.

I think you just won the internet

that was brilliant

 

[DavidSeven]

Pete has justified his system and offensive identity ad nauseum. Wilson will never be allowed to throw that much every game. Not because he can't, but because that goes against the system that Pete believes in.

I imagine this is going to be a debate every single off-season. And every season Pete is just going to keep disappointing folks who believe the rush/pass ratios will change or "even out." It's not about trust in Russell's ability. They believed he could do anything and everything after the Chicago game in 2012. It's about the system. It's about turnover margins. It's about toughness. It's about constantly gaining info on rush plays, so you can gash teams later in the game. It's about things that are so much bigger than one guy or what fans are clamoring for.

Also, Pete and Bev just won a 'ship, so you can stuff your "need to"s in a sack.

 

[onanygivensunday]

so he should be allowed to throw the ball more so you can win a debate with other team's fans?

You're a funny guy... not.

Last year, we were the #1 scoring defense... and tied for #8 in scoring.

I want us to be #1 in both.

Wilson being allowed to throw the ball more often will improve our scoring numbers... thereby improving out chance to win each game.

Simple enough for you?

 

[RolandDeschain]

Also, Pete and Bev just won a 'ship, so you can stuff your "need to"s in a sack.

If winning a championship meant everything you do is perfect, there'd only ever be one team to have won the Super Bowl since they'd have that perfection year after year after year.

I get tired of people using the "they won the Super Bowl, so nothing should be touched" excuse/reason/philosophy/whatever. That's not to say there shouldn't be a bit of "don't fix what ain't broke", but a lot of people are taking that to extremes, IMO.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Why would we change up a proven system? How about we wait to fix it when it breaks.

This is exactly what doesn't work. See: Broncos offensive game play for Super Bowl XLVIII.

We should pass more for very legitimate reasons unrelated to puffing up DangeRuss's stats/image.

Correct. I expect at least a 50/50 pass to run ratio from here on out. You have to evolve given it's already proven that teams are on to the run, run, run, pass if dragged and kicking model. They need quick slants and screens and such on 1st down even, Lord forbid, to force teams to quit stacking the box and keep them guessing. Teams have film and all they have been doing is coming up with schemes to stop our current offense.

 

[DavidSeven]

Also, Pete and Bev just won a 'ship, so you can stuff your "need to"s in a sack.

If winning a championship meant everything you do is perfect, there'd only ever be one team to have won the Super Bowl since they'd have that perfection year after year after year.

I get tired of people using the "they won the Super Bowl, so nothing should be touched" excuse/reason/philosophy/whatever. That's not to say there shouldn't be a bit of "don't fix what ain't broke", but a lot of people are taking that to extremes, IMO.

Of course, you keep improving, but overhauling your offensive identity after it led to a championship is foolish. That is what OP is talking about here -- increasing passing ATTs to 35 is an overhaul of identity.

But honestly, I'm not sure 10 straight championships would get you to overcome your hate of Bevell and Pete's run-run-pass mandate.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Correct. I expect at least a 50/50 pass to run ratio from here on out.

It doesn't even have to be like that. We need to get DangeRuss some experience passing a boatload in some real games because it'll make him more effective at it for times when we HAVE to start passing a lot. Since when can someone become a true expert at something by avoiding it the vast majority of the time? Exactly.

 

[DavidSeven]

Correct. I expect at least a 50/50 pass to run ratio from here on out.

It doesn't even have to be like that. We need to get DangeRuss some experience passing a boatload in some real games because it'll make him more effective at it for times when we HAVE to start passing a lot. Since when can someone become a true expert at something by avoiding it the vast majority of the time? Exactly.

Weird logic. He passes all the time in practice. How is high volume passing in real games going to change how he approaches each throw? That sounds like a recipe for disaster. He's more than effective now with the current ratios. It's like you think he can't practice throwing unless he does 35 times every game.

Plus, Russell also already proven fully capable of throwing high volume when he needs to come from behind.

 

[Escamillo]

so he should be allowed to throw the ball more so you can win a debate with other team's fans?

You're a funny guy... not.

Last year, we were the #1 scoring defense... and tied for #8 in scoring.

I want us to be #1 in both.

Wilson being allowed to throw the ball more often will improve our scoring numbers... thereby improving out chance to win each game.

Simple enough for you?

I haven't looked up any stats, but I wonder if the Seahawks games have fewer possessions for each team than the average NFL game does, precisely because Seattle is a run-first offense. That would mean that drives consume more minutes, which means fewer possessions for both teams. That also means our D has to defend fewer possessions too, which would contribute to giving up fewer points and yards.

In which case, you don't know what the consequences would be of going to a pass-first offense. Could lead to more points for both teams, maybe our D getting more tired than they do today. Maybe we'd have more shootouts. Shootouts, by their very nature, are a crapshoot.

I follow Pac-12 football. The last two years, Stanford won the conference title by shutting down Oregon's Star Wars offense by using run-first offense and lights out defense, as the Seahawks do. History has shown that that is a winning formula. I don't care that "It's now a passing league", the champion teams still tend to be strong D and running teams.

 

[Perfundle]

Well, I've been over at the Donkey's chat forums jousting with their fanbase about where Russell should be ranked on the Top Ten current QB list

I have to say that you've mucked up several good threads on their site. Whenever you chime in the thread starts to devolve into insulting the Seahawks. I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish when you keep telling them all the flaws of their team.

As for your question here, passers becoming less efficient when they pass more does have precedent. Roethlisberger averaged 8.9 YPA in both of his first two years, and like Wilson won a Super Bowl in his second year. Apart from 2009 he never even approached that mark as he was asked to pass more. In the other direction you have Brady, the third sophomore QB Super Bowl winner, who actually became more efficient when he started passing more, although he was starting from a much worse YPA in his first year.

But I would agree with their poster that maintaining extremely high efficiency with more passes is very difficult. Wilson is at his best when they're running 2-minute offenses, either at the end of the first half or when they're trying to shrink a large deficit (partly because defenses are foolishly playing prevent defense). But there's a reason why almost no team does that for a whole game, or even for the entire first half, because it stresses the defense too much, especially if the drive happens to stall.

 

[253hawk]

Peyton Manning set the SB record for completions...how'd that work out for him?