Passing on first down, not running, would better protect RW

[MontanaHawk05]

Or at least that's what this guy says. Believes Seattle is running on first down to try and protect Russell Wilson, not just to be boring and predictable. But then says that said predictability just isn't worth the protection.

This analysis bears out my observation that Wilson has often looked awesome out of unpredictable downs like 2nd-and-4. Most offenses do. Some of his greatest moments have come during drives in which we could reach that down-and-distance repeatedly, putting Wilson in a rhythm and defenses in base packages. (It also suggests that Bevell is at least competent at deploying versatile personnel looks on 2nd-and-short, otherwise we wouldn't look so good there.) The problem is that even running games as great as ours can't reliably pick up 6 yards on every first down, unless you're playing the Rams.

http://kcpelton.wordpress.com/2012/10/2 ... him-loose/

 

[HawkFan72]

Along these lines, look how successful the Seahawks offense has been when they come out of the gates flinging the ball around. Against the Rams and Pats I believe Rice caught 15+ yard passes on the first or second play. Both led to scoring drives.

Defenses are expecting us to run Lynch early to set the tone, but Wilson has really surprised some defenses by taking a couple mid-range shots early.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

I wonder why we haven't tried a flea-flicker yet. Wouldn't it be an ideal way to trap Lynchaphobic defenses? Or is it, as usual, not that simple?

 

[FlyingGreg]

I wonder why we haven't tried a flea-flicker yet. Wouldn't it be an ideal way to trap Lynchaphobic defenses? Or is it, as usual, not that simple?

Not exactly a flea flicker, but they did try the WR pass option w/ Rice.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Our predictable play-calling is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

 

[The Radish]

I wonder why we haven't tried a flea-flicker yet. Wouldn't it be an ideal way to trap Lynchaphobic defenses? Or is it, as usual, not that simple?

Not exactly a flea flicker, but they did try the WR pass option w/ Rice.

I agree a flea flicker now and then, maybe a couple of times or even once a game gives the defense something else to think about. Or even the look of maybe doing it.

:les:

 

[MontanaHawk05]

I miss Jeremy Bates. PC fired him for giving up on the run too often, but what might he have looked like here without the 2010 defense that constantly had him down by three scores by the third quarter?

 

[kearly]

Great topic and great article. I just skimmed it and I could already tell that the guy who wrote it might have a future at football outsiders. That was some seriously smart analysis.

 

[hawker84]

Our predictable play-calling is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

yes yes yes......i've been saying this for 6 games now... bevell has got to step it up, and i actually put the blame on caroll's shoulders for not talking to bevell about better adjustments... i said it in a post a while back, run, run, pass is a recipe for disaster for a rookie q back, unless you're extremely succesful running the ball. but if you are constantly putting your q back in 3rd and longs where the defense can pin it's ears back , well we have all seen the results. yet bevell calls these types of games week in and week out, the exception being carolina and NE, where he actually passes on 1st downs here and there, we digressed last thursday in the second half especially, back to the run, run, pass... which equaled fail, fail, fail....

 

[jlwaters1]

I think the biggest issue with the playcalling is 3rd down playcalling. In the GB and SF games We'd run the ball twice and pick up 6-7 yards leaving us with a 3rd and 3-4 yards. The problem as I see is that when we get into these manageable situations we go from the I-formation into a shotgun, oftentimes in an empty backfield. The disadvantage to me is that this eliminates the likilihood of a run and so the defenses have an easier time stopping it. What I'd like to see is to stay in the I-Formation perhaps remove a TE and bring in a slot WR.

That way you can either run or pass, you can also utilyze play action. Whereas that's not possible with the numerous times we've employed Shotgun/empty looks.

I think the playcalling is better, though I'm of the opinion that playcalling is 1/3% responsible for success. The other 2/3 comes from proper execution and frankly, through 7 weeks we just haven't executed well enought (or consistently enought)to sustain drives and to caplitalize in the redzone.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

run, run pass, repeat as needed........ ugh

 

[12thMan1]

They should run the annexation of puerto rico!

 

[Lieutenant Dan]

I think the biggest issue with the playcalling is 3rd down playcalling. In the GB and SF games We'd run the ball twice and pick up 6-7 yards leaving us with a 3rd and 3-4 yards. The problem as I see is that when we get into these manageable situations we go from the I-formation into a shotgun, oftentimes in an empty backfield. The disadvantage to me is that this eliminates the likilihood of a run and so the defenses have an easier time stopping it. What I'd like to see is to stay in the I-Formation perhaps remove a TE and bring in a slot WR.

That way you can either run or pass, you can also utilyze play action. Whereas that's not possible with the numerous times we've employed Shotgun/empty looks.

I think the playcalling is better, though I'm of the opinion that playcalling is 1/3% responsible for success. The other 2/3 comes from proper execution and frankly, through 7 weeks we just haven't executed well enought (or consistently enought)to sustain drives and to caplitalize in the redzone.

I like your line of thinking on 3rd down formations.

Would it or would it not be an added side benefit to RW of this formation to have fewer WR's running around to have a shorter, simpler progression, thus getting the ball out quicker and less likely to miss an open target?

 

[volsunghawk]

Thanks for that link, Montana. Good stuff.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Our predictable play-calling is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

Our marginal pass blocking is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Our predictable play-calling is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

Our marginal pass blocking is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

A good offensive coordinator changes things up to compensate for this, in my opinion.

 

[SharkHawk]

I miss Jeremy Bates. PC fired him for giving up on the run too often, but what might he have looked like here without the 2010 defense that constantly had him down by three scores by the third quarter?

I've been semi-discussing this for a couple of weeks. I feel like Bates was given the axe way too early. He was treated as if he was another Gregg Knapp in how quickly they canned him and basically didn't even talk about it. It was a total blindside to me. I felt like he didn't exactly see eye-to-eye with Hass, but then Hass was a goner anyway, so why did it matter? He actually made Jay Cutler look like all-pro or maybe even Superbowl quality good for a year.

Maybe he doesn't have as bright of a future as I thought, but he seemed like one of the more creative young minds on the offensive side of the ball that was coming up through the ranks of NFL coaches. Somebody mentioned it was because the Hawks thought they could sign McDaniels to take over as OC immediately as he got fired by Denver. I wasn't aware that there was any interest there from either direction.

I guess if the Hawks wanted to, they could hire quite a few offensive minds after this season as it looks like lots of teams will be scrapping their coaching staffs. Nobody was that into it last year due to the weird offseason, but after this year more teams will be ready to just cut bait and start over.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Great read, Montana. Thanks for sharing it.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Our predictable play-calling is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

Our marginal pass blocking is the largest impediment to our offense, in my opinion.

A good offensive coordinator changes things up to compensate for this, in my opinion.

That's a factor too just not the largest one, in my opinion.

 

[SeaWolv]

Along these lines, look how successful the Seahawks offense has been when they come out of the gates flinging the ball around. Against the Rams and Pats I believe Rice caught 15+ yard passes on the first or second play. Both led to scoring drives.

Defenses are expecting us to run Lynch early to set the tone, but Wilson has really surprised some defenses by taking a couple mid-range shots early.

Agreed. That Bleacher article on Wilson said he leads the NFL in scoring plays of 20+ yards. If our receivers can hang onto the ball RW can do some damage. We sure could use a resurgence of former UM standout Braylon Edwards to along with Rice.