Tokadub":k13qgwf5 said:
Maelstrom787":k13qgwf5 said:
The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.
Maybe I'm wrong but I think the analytics are based on the averages of every scenario that has occurred in the NFL...
I heard the stats this morning it's like 10.5% if they go for it and like 9.5% if they don't go for it? Not sure exactly... but even with the analytics the right move was to go for it...
I think all the analytics prove is that they were unlikely to win in every scenario...
But I don't think the analytics account for having the MVP QB, arguably one of the best QB's of all time and their Super Bowl window is on the line...
First of all most teams that are behind by 8 in that situation in NFL history are bad teams, mediocre QB's etc...
So if you analyze the average outcomes of those situations of course the outcomes look bad both ways...
We are a LONG way from being able to provide analytics based on specific team vs team match ups, how good the QB is, etc...
That's my opinion, I'm fine with anyone who disagrees but from my understanding analytics are based on averages and statistics of those averages... Aaron Rodgers is not average so I don't think analytics are accurate... even the questionable analytics slightly favored going for it.
That's why we use several models, like I did above.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/AudacityOfHoops/status/1353615016835117056[/tweet]
Rodgers had his chances and missed each one. So they kick it, have 3 time outs and over 2 minutes left, and go up against a completely noodle-armed Tom Brady. Brady couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with any velocity the entire second half, and honestly, if Kevin King didn't pull off an all-time blunder, the third down pass was sailing away too, predictably.
If we wanna talk about human factors that would decide the way to go on an analytic tossup, Brady's dead arm was a great reason to kick. Why hedge it all on a conversion that, historically, has a fair amount less than 50% probability of success?
Judging process over hindsight, kicking was right, and it almost worked. You need a stop no matter what, might as well be in a position to win instead of the likely outcome of only being able to tie IF you score AND hit on a coin-flip 2 pt conversion.