Not Franchise, Hasn’t Won when needing 24+ (long)

[Sgt Largent]

I’ve heard this neat little stat here and many other football corners of the world in the past year or so. I knew it was factually true but a garbage synopsis of Wilson’s career so I investigated. Bolded are games where 24+ was needed to win.

Every Loss - Wilson's Career, the #) indicates which game in Wilson's career he's playing in.

2012-

• 1) ARI - Seattle surrenders 3 pt lead with 5 min left, giving up a TD. SEA drives the length, dropping a tough catch in the endzone to succumb. Final: 20-16

• 4) STL - Seattle never has a chance, only briefly leading by 7 in the 1st Quarter. We rush for 179 yds, but 3 INTs ruin any hope. Final: 19-13

• 7) SF - We lead 6-3 at the half but 0 offensive output dooms us, although we rush for 136 yds. Final: 13-6

• 8) DET – Seattle leads 17 to 14 into the 4th Quarter. SEA surrenders the lead with 12 minutes to play, giving up a TD. SEA takes lead back with a TD and 5 minutes to go. SEA gives up another TD with 20 seconds left. Wilson throws for 236 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, and rushes for 9 yds on 1 ATT. Final: 28-24

• 11) MIA – Seattle leads 14-7 in the 4th Quarter. MIA ties it with 8 minutes left. SEA special teams retake the lead on the ensuing kickoff, but 17 pts surrendered in the last 8 mins of the game seal the deal. Wilson throws for 224, 2 TD, 0 INT, and rushes for 38 yds on 5 carries. Final: 24-21.

• 18) ATL – Down 20-0 at the half, SEA scores 28 pts to take a 1 pt lead with 30 seconds left. Defense gives up 3 pt drive in 23 seconds for the loss. Wilson 385 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, and 60 yds rushing on 7 attempts. Final: 30-28

2013-

• 23) IND – Seattle leads 28 to 25 into the 4th Quarter. DEF gives up 11 pts while the offense, down 3 with 9 mins to go, does not score again. Wilson 210 yds, 2 TD, I INT, 102 yds rushing on 13 attempts. Seattle had an 83.4% win probability with 14 mins left. Final: 34 – 28.

• 31) SF – In a low scoring Defensive battle, SEA takes the lead 3 times, for the last time with 6:20 seconds to go. Seattle loses surrendering a FG with 26 seconds on the clock. Final: 19-17

• 33) ARI – In a crummy offensive performance, SEA nevertheless manages to take a 1 pt lead with 7 minutes to go on a TD drive. SEA gives up 2 scoring drives and a 2 pt conversion in the 4th Quarter. Down 7 with 2 minutes to go, Offense fails to convert. Final: 17-10
2014-

• 39) SD – Seattle briefly takes a 7-3 lead after 1 Quarter. Defense surrenders 17 pts in the 2nd Quarter but Offense tries to keep us in the game with a TD right before half to keep us within 6 pts. SEA goes down 13 in the 3rd and gets it back to 6 just before the 4th. On a swelteringly hot day, the game is over. Wilson 202 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 18 yds rush on 2 ATT. With a 75.7% win probability in the 1st Quarter, it was all downhill from there. Final: 30-21

• 42) DAL – In a game we were unable to stop the run or pass, surrendering 160 yds rushing and 250 yds passing, we still lead 23-20 with 7:38 to go. Win probability is 82.5% and 7 mins left. We give up 10 pts in 7 mins and don’t score again. Wilson threw for 126 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, and rushed for 12 yds on 2 ATT with 1 TD. Final: 30-23.

• 44) STL – Down 21-3 midway through the 2nd , SEA scores 16 unanswered and misses a 2 pt conversion to tie. DEF gives up a TD with 5 mins to go. OFF answers with another TD and 3 mins left. We get it back (I think?) with 1:18 to go and down 2. Can’t finish. Wilson 313 yds passing, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 106 yds rushing on 7 carries and 1 TD. Final: 28-26

• 48) KC – Down 14-7 in the 2nd, SEA takes 20-17 lead going into the 4th. SEA gives up a TD 1:42 seconds later and we don’t score again. Wilson 172 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 71 yds rushing on 8 ATT. Final: 24-20

• 57) NE – SHIT… SEA held a 10 pt lead with 8 mins to go. With 11:30 to play, starting their 1st of 2 TD drives in the 4th, NE had a 3.5% chance to win. You know the rest. Wilson 247 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT?!?!, and 39 yds rushing on 5 carries. Final: 28-24

2015-

• 58) STL – Down 24-13 with 4:30 to go in the 3rd, SEA scores 18 straight to take a 7 pt lead with 1:54 left to play. Rams have a 6% chance to win. And they do. Wilson 251 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 31 yds rushing on 8 ATT. Final: 34-31

• 59) GB – Down 13-3 at half, SEA scores 14 unanswered in the 3rd to lead 17-13. GB scores 14 unanswered to win easy. SEA highest win probability is 63.9% midway through the 3rd. Wilson 206 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 78 rush on 10 ATT. Final: 27-17

• 62) CIN – Seattle leads 24-7 to start the 4th, CIN has a 0.9% chance of winning. They do. Wilson 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 21 rush on 3 ATT. Rawls 169 rush on 23 carries. (I definitely see how some point to the offense for this loss). Final: 27-24

• 63) CAR – Seattle leads 23-14 with 11:46 to go. At 8 mins to go, Carolina has a 3.9% chance to win. They do. Wilson 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 53 yds rush 8 ATT. Lynch 54 yds rush 17 ATT. Final: 27-23

• 66) ARI – After giving up 22 pts in the 2nd, SEA climbs back, capping the surge with a DEF TD and a 4 pt lead, SEA chance to win resting at 77%. Unfortunately we give up 14 pts in 11 mins to lose by 7. Wilson 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 52 rush 6 ATT. Lynch 42 rush 8 ATT. Final: 39-32

That’s all of em. I’ll let others pick out the ones squarely on the OFF/Wilson by proxy.

On the other hand:

11 4th Quarter Comebacks

16 Game winning drives

2012 - 4 4QC, 5 GWD
2013 – 4 4QC, 5 GWD
2014 – 2 4QC (slacker), 5 GWD
2015 – 1 4QC, 1 GWD

Conclusion: Bum, clearly not franchise material…

EDIT: DATA Courtesy http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... lsRu00.htm

 

[Sgt Largent]

It's interesting to note that since WEEK 16 of 2013, we are 23-10. 23-0 when needing less than 24 to win.

A league average defense gives up 23 pts a game this year. In every game since WEEK 16, 2013, we are undefeated when holding the opponent to league average (this year) or better.

Someone check my math, I'm tired...

 

[MD5eahawks]

That stat has always been a "cute" little favorite of mine. But I think there is a more glaring item that should be considered when evaluating those losses. It seems as if the defense is to blame more so than the offense. What I see is an offense that maybe tries to drag the clock with a late game lead and a defense that is pressed with the task of dealing with a desperate offense as an opponent and succumbs to their efforts occasionally.

Seems as if this year they have succumbed to all the good teams.

 

[themunn]

Wilson is 29-8 when scoring 24 points or more (78.4%)

And he is 18-11 when scoring 23 or less (62.1%).

What this suggests to me is that Wilson is 15% more likely to win if he scores more points.

Wilson is 0-6 in games where the opposition has scored more than 30 points.
But Wilson is 15-2 when he scores more than 30 points (both losses this year).

Based on these results, what I can see is that generally, when Seattle scores lots of points they win, but when they concede lots of points they lose. A very interesting statistic.

 

[Sgt Largent]

Wilson is 29-8 when scoring 24 points or more (78.4%)

And he is 18-11 when scoring 23 or less (62.1%).

What this suggests to me is that Wilson is 15% more likely to win if he scores more points.

Wilson is 0-6 in games where the opposition has scored more than 30 points.
But Wilson is 15-2 when he scores more than 30 points (both losses this year).

Based on these results, what I can see is that generally, when Seattle scores lots of points they win, but when they concede lots of points they lose. A very interesting statistic.

Touche themunn. Thanks for taking a few seconds to sprinkle some condescension on alot of effort. Impressive.

 

[Scottemojo]

The offense can have a bad day, and Seattle still very well may win.
The defense cannot be any worse than average, if they are we lose.

 

[tmobilchawker79]

Based on the portion of the team's salary spent on that side of the ball, I would hope our defense is better than average.

 

[justafan]

I love defensive games.I love it when field position matters,i love it when FGs are a win.
In this day you cant expect a D to hold a team below 24 points every time out.The offense has to be able to score TDs and not FGs in todays games.Thats where this team fails.

 

[blkhwk]

Similar pattern in 15 of these loses to this year. Team has the lead in the fourth and cannot hold it........

Reason?
Offensive inconsistency to put together enough drives to build on the leads which also leads to the defense being gassed in the fourth or something else?

 

[Hawkpower]

Wouldnt these numbers be fairly similar for most QB's and most teams in the NFL?

Not sure if those are unique to Seattle.....

 

[Anthony!]

That stat has always been a "cute" little favorite of mine. But I think there is a more glaring item that should be considered when evaluating those losses. It seems as if the defense is to blame more so than the offense. What I see is an offense that maybe tries to drag the clock with a late game lead and a defense that is pressed with the task of dealing with a desperate offense as an opponent and succumbs to their efforts occasionally.

Seems as if this year they have succumbed to all the good teams.

What you see is games going exactly the way our HC wants it, except with the state of our oline it has become much harder for Wilson to do his magic thing and bring us back all the time