Let's switch the narrative - DEFENSE and RUNNING GAME

[keasley45]

We have spent an entire season going back and forth on Darnold and who and what he is for this team. I for one and worn out by it.
I think the way things are shaping up with the defenses that we may be playing for the remainder of our games (including post - season) coming into focus, rather than trying to guess what our passing game is going to do, i think the fact that we are still on the fence about it should shift focus to what our running game and defense can do to win us games from here on out.

This week against the 9ers- it's going to be a great barometer for our defense and if we are successful, may indicate the shape of our overall attack in the post season. It was great to see the explosiveness of the offense earlier in the season but I honestly think those performances are gone UNLESS we establish a dominant run game that forces defenses to come out of their 2 high looks against us. And honestly, given MMs defensive roots, I wouldn't be surprised if even when we establish a consistent ground game and loosen up D's, that he prefers the identity of the team to rely less on Sam and JSN and more on Charbs and Walker.

But after the 9ers and including the 9ers, is there a team in the NFC we SHOULDNT be able to pound the ground game on? I don't think there is. We lit up the Rams the 2nd time around and their D has been exposed a bit over the last several weeks.

The 9ers showed little ability to stop the Bears.

The Pack? They are too depleted to be considered formidable on D.

Carolina and Tampa? Nope

The Eagles aren't who they were last year, but still, given their experience can't be discounted.

Bears? They had nothing against the 9ers and overall, their D is ranked in the bottom half of the league

The 9ers Rush D is ranked 7th
Rams are 11th
GB are 16th
Carolina are 20th
Eagles are 22nd
Bears are 28th

Again, if we can run on the 9ers and slow their offense, it bodes well for us being able to just run on and bully whoever else we face in the NFC

It's when you look at the AFC and a potential SB matchup that you start to see dominant run defenses - defenses that will likely require us to have our passing game (Sam and Kubiak) to be a difference maker.

JAX and Den are the top 2 run defenses respectively
Houston is 4th
NE is 8th
Chargers are 9th
Ravens are 12th
Buffalo is 29th

We rank 3rd overall.

Out of the AFC teams we might be pitted against in the final stanza, I can see any of the top 5 teams making it. Houston and the Chargers are equally as formidable against the pass. But of those top defenses against the run, I would argue only the Texans, Pats, and Chargers have a formidable enough combo of QB play and rush defense to cause us real problems.

All that to say that it's entirely possible we keep our pass game buttoned down by design and try to just bully our way to the SB.

Win or lose Saturday, our team is entirely capable of riding that strategy to the SB before we have to truly require our passing game to win us a game.

 

[glenwo2]

After seeing what Charbs did against the Panthers (who, imo, proved to have a far better defense than their DVOA rankings indicate), I'm all for switching it up to a Run-based offense.

It seems that to win this game, we are going to need to dominate the T.O.P. and running the ball effectively does this.

Keeping Purdy-Mouth on the sidelines (and our defense on the sidelines catching their breath) should be the goal as well as engineer time-consuming drives that take between 8-10 minutes off the clock and lead to a Seattle score (preferably a TD).

 

[BDD222]

We have a top 10 DVOA rushing offense since week 10. That is around the same time that we stopped seeing stacked boxes and teams shifted to a cover 2 so JSN could torch them deep.

People wonder what happened to Darnold? Charbonet, Walker, and this oline happened. He doesn't have to carry the team with his arm.

He had two turnovers against Carolina, but one could argue that his arm was going forward, and Jackson's foot was out. Even if you want to buy that Jackson's shin was down, I still see that INT as more of a miscommunication than an error.

 

[glenwo2]

We have a top 10 DVOA rushing offense since week 10. That is around the same time that we stopped seeing stacked boxes and teams shifted to a cover 2 so JSN could torch them deep.

People wonder what happened to Darnold? Charbonet, Walker, and this oline happened. He doesn't have to carry the team with his arm.

He had two turnovers against Carolina, but one could argue that his arm was going forward, and Jackson's foot was out. Even if you want to buy that Jackson's shin was down, I still see that INT as more of a miscommunication than an error.

Yeah but at the same time, if you look at the All-22, he had AJ Barner wide-ass open to his right for a checkdown if he just looked in his direction.

There are times I just don't understand the playcall.

Is this a play that is designed for Darnold to throw to JSN no matter what?

Or is Sam deciding to do that all on his own?

If it's the latter, Sam needs to stop it.

If it's the former (and I'm tempted to agree on that one), Kubiak needs to let Sam go through his progressions although K9 couldn't block his driveway with his car let alone block a D-Lineman from dog-walking him straight into Darnold...


Anyway, I'm veering off-topic here.

The Running attack is the way to go and always has been the way to go.

Sam and JSN blowing up was just a very wonderful surprise.

But now it's time to focus on what will really get us to the Promise-Land and that's Running the football and Defense, Defense, Defense.

 

[BDD222]

Yeah but at the same time, if you look at the All-22, he had AJ Barner wide-ass open to his right for a checkdown if he just looked in his direction.

There are times I just don't understand the playcall.

Is this a play that is designed for Darnold to throw to JSN no matter what?

Or is Sam deciding to do that all on his own?

If it's the latter, Sam needs to stop it.

If it's the former (and I'm tempted to agree on that one), Kubiak needs to let Sam go through his progressions although K9 couldn't block his driveway with his car let alone block a D-Lineman from dog-walking him straight into Darnold...


Anyway, I'm veering off-topic here.

The Running attack is the way to go and always has been the way to go.

Sam and JSN blowing up was just a very wonderful surprise.

But now it's time to focus on what will really get us to the Promise-Land and that's Running the football and Defense, Defense, Defense.

I believe that play to be a TD or at least an incomplete pass. I think JSzn saw back shoulder at the pylon. Sam saw back corner. If they msee the same thing, I am seeing a TD. It is not like it was a bad decision and throw like all 4 of the INTs against the Rams.

 

[MORGULON]

Yeah but at the same time, if you look at the All-22, he had AJ Barner wide-ass open to his right for a checkdown if he just looked in his direction.

There are times I just don't understand the playcall.

Is this a play that is designed for Darnold to throw to JSN no matter what?

Or is Sam deciding to do that all on his own?

If it's the latter, Sam needs to stop it.

If it's the former (and I'm tempted to agree on that one), Kubiak needs to let Sam go through his progressions although K9 couldn't block his driveway with his car let alone block a D-Lineman from dog-walking him straight into Darnold...


Anyway, I'm veering off-topic here.

The Running attack is the way to go and always has been the way to go.

Sam and JSN blowing up was just a very wonderful surprise.

But now it's time to focus on what will really get us to the Promise-Land and that's Running the football and Defense, Defense, Defense.

Special teams?

 

[glenwo2]

Special teams?

Well we hope Myers continues his awesome play.

But Shaheed...man....I really hate Mike Jackson.

 

[nanomoz]

Great post.

I hope they try to get Charbs 20 carries a game from here on out. Ken can still get 15ish. Charbs seems to get better the more carries he gets. And he tears a defense up.

Kubiak aggravates me by forcing the pass game. It sometimes seems like he has plays he wants to run regardless of gameflow.

Charbs hits for 23 yards, the Carolina interior defense is clearly worn down, then they throw it twice. Even the if Sam didn't throw a pick in the end zone, we are sitting at third and long. Not exactly the strength of this offense.

It seems like they could have grounded it into the end zone while stripping that defense more.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

Great post.

I hope they try to get Charbs 20 carries a game from here on out. Ken can still get 15ish. Charbs seems to get better the more carries he gets. And he tears a defense up.

Kubiak aggravates me by forcing the pass game. It sometimes seems like he has plays he wants to run regardless of gameflow.

Charbs hits for 23 yards, the Carolina interior defense is clearly worn down, then they throw it twice. Even the if Sam didn't throw a pick in the end zone, we are sitting at third and long. Not exactly the strength of this offense.

It seems like they could have grounded it into the end zone while stripping that defense more.

In the playoffs (starting Saturday) I would love to see Charbs get a little more action. He is just more consistent at getting positive yards than Walker. I think that is something Darnold needs to help avoid the 3rd and long situations. Walker is still a big play threat so give him some carries but it would be nice to see 20 carries for Charbonnet to 15 for Walker.

 

[keasley45]

Yeah but at the same time, if you look at the All-22, he had AJ Barner wide-ass open to his right for a checkdown if he just looked in his direction.

There are times I just don't understand the playcall.

Is this a play that is designed for Darnold to throw to JSN no matter what?

Or is Sam deciding to do that all on his own?

If it's the latter, Sam needs to stop it.

If it's the former (and I'm tempted to agree on that one), Kubiak needs to let Sam go through his progressions although K9 couldn't block his driveway with his car let alone block a D-Lineman from dog-walking him straight into Darnold...


Anyway, I'm veering off-topic here.

The Running attack is the way to go and always has been the way to go.

Sam and JSN blowing up was just a very wonderful surprise.

But now it's time to focus on what will really get us to the Promise-Land and that's Running the football and Defense, Defense, Defense.

Nobody ever asks if Stafford HAD to throw to a guy on a given play. Not criticizing you at all for asking the question, but it's Sam's job to make the smart play.

If there is someone wide open for a 100% completion and chain moving drive vs a play where the DB has perfect coverage and the success of the play depends on the QB and wr seeing the exact same thing or the ball is picked... Well, you take the safe play. Especially when all you talk about in post game is how the team is one that plays complimentary ball ...AND your offense and your QB lead the league in TOs.

That's why I am saying passing and receiving records be damned. Base this offense on the run and our ability to stop or slow everyone we play and ride that to the SB. Run and force teams to drop a safety down or stay in their base sets, then look deep.

It's just not working to expect Sam to be able to beat the 2 high zone looks with his arm. It's shades of Russ to a degree because he wasn't able to hit the short and short/intermediate stuff either but for other reasons.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Been saying it all season. This defense will keep us in EVERY game, imo.

 

[glenwo2]

Nobody ever asks if Stafford HAD to throw to a guy on a given play. Not criticizing you at all for asking the question, but it's Sam's job to make the smart play.

If there is someone wide open for a 100% completion and chain moving drive vs a play where the DB has perfect coverage and the success of the play depends on the QB and wr seeing the exact same thing or the ball is picked... Well, you take the safe play. Especially when all you talk about in post game is how the team is one that plays complimentary ball ...AND your offense and your QB lead the league in TOs.

That's why I am saying passing and receiving records be damned. Base this offense on the run and our ability to stop or slow everyone we play and ride that to the SB. Run and force teams to drop a safety down or stay in their base sets, then look deep.

It's just not working to expect Sam to be able to beat the 2 high zone looks with his arm. It's shades of Russ to a degree because he wasn't able to hit the short and short/intermediate stuff either but for other reasons.

Never took your response as criticism so it's fine.

I was just curious if that was the playcall (because there are throws that are determined pre-snap) or if Sam decided "There's JSN. I'm going to throw it to him and he will make a play" in which case I don't blame him for that thought process but it didn't seem like he even took a peek to his right to see Barner. (now maybe he did 'cause we can't see his eyes but still....)

It just seemed to me that Sam went for the higher-degree-of-difficulty throw which would've been a 50/50 ball at best even if both QB and WR were on the same page there (which unfortunately they weren't as JSN was looking back-shoulder throw while Darnold was throwing to the back pylon) instead of taking the easy completion to Barner who could've got the team close to the goal-line at worst and Touchdown at best.


I don't know...I think I'm just nitpicking....

 

[keasley45]

Not nitpicking at all. He needs to take what's there, again, and again, and again...until defenses have to adjust to it AND the run game being a consistent threat. When that happens, the deep stuff will open up again.

 

[NoGain]

The Eagles are definitely a team that could shut our running game down. IMO, they're the best defense we'd face as an opponent in the NFC playoffs.

 

[glenwo2]

Not nitpicking at all. He needs to take what's there, again, and again, and again...until defenses have to adjust to it AND the run game being a consistent threat. When that happens, the deep stuff will open up again.

Imagine if he starts checking it down to Barner over and over in the Niners game.

 

[pmedic920]

Imagine if he starts checking it down to Barner over and over in the Niners game.

Imagine if he just keeps finding the open guy.

It’s rare that there isn’t one.

No need to wish check downs to the TE, especially if someone else down field is open.

The BEST qbs are the ones that take advantage of opportunities given.

 

[glenwo2]

My point is that opposing teams know that Sam is almost always looking for JSN and believe he's hyper-locked on him.

I think Sam could throw the Niners defense (or any defense) for a loop if he does something out of ordinary.

'Cause right now, they have the book on him in that his first read is always JSN (and at times his 2nd read as well).

So while finding the open guy is of course the play here, making the opposing D believe you're going to someone else moreso in this game can open things up further for JSN or something like that.

 

[keasley45]

The offense executed the perfect strategy against the 9ers - one we should repeat for the rest of the season. Sam as game manager for a powerful run game and bully defense, being relied upon to move the chains with his arm and legs is the safest way for us to work our way through the playoffs.

If we establish this as an identity, defenses will be forced to adjust to us, opening up the big plays again. But our base approach should be what we saw last night.

 

[Appyhawk]

When Coach Mike first arrived he made it clear that what he wanted to create is a team that is physically dominant (Rams plan), one that can "bully" their opponents. It is football in its most basic form. Watch the tush push. That is rugby play over and over again. If you have the personell it works, over and over again. Thus the "three yards and a cloud of dust". And to stop it you must dedicate your entire defensive force to pushing back at the point of attack.
Gee, what are JSN and Shaheed doing way downfield all alone? And why did Barner suddenly turn around and flip the ball back to Darno in the backfield?
Basic football.

 

[DTiempo81]

The Eagles are definitely a team that could shut our running game down. IMO, they're the best defense we'd face as an opponent in the NFC playoffs.

They've had some decent games, but they are currently ranked 20th against the run. Bucs (if they make it) and the 9ers are the only top 10 run defenses left in the NFC side of the playoffs outside of Seattle.