Attyla the Hawk
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- Mar 11, 2013
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I would go with no.
There are a lot of factors that go into the statistical analysis. I'll cite a few that I can see would skew any analysis for the worse.
1. Injuries. Yes they happen. Although Seattle was pretty unfortunate in that regard -- particularly along the line. We were forced to play Bowie/Bailey a lot more than hoped. While they struggled, they also had some success. Overall, I'm pleased with their performance given the inexperience on what is admittedly a pretty long learning curve. I expect both players to really show consistency this season befitting the experience level. They paid the learning curve and should be poised to emerge from the other end more quickly as a result of the game experience they amassed last year. We will be a good 8 deep at the position group this season with a lot more flexibility in terms of plugging depth guys in.
2. Our offense. I don't see it cited much -- but our passing model is not a quick hitting WCO style. It relies more heavily on longer developing routes and play action passing. Additionally, since we run the ball with such frequency -- we often have a lot of attention paid at the LOS. Our offense by design really puts pressure on the Line and QB because of the numbers of defenders close to the line and the time we hold the ball.
Additionally, our offense is a run first offense. Pass protection is going to be a secondary element to run blocking. Seattle ran the ball extremely effectively. That's their primary function and they performed well.
I'm not really shocked at the lack of short yardage success. Teams that succeed at that are typically your traditional power man blocking types. Guys that move players. The zone scheme really isn't ideally suited for that purpose. The power in our attack comes from the backs. Not the line. You see it in the rigid prototype athletes we acquire at the RB position. The line doesn't have a lot of people movers. They are more get in the way and allow the back to engage in a seam where the defender is fighting through the lineman to get to him.
3. Personnel. Wilson is a great scrambling QB. More to the point, when he does scramble, he is great at buying time, allowing the defense to break down, and then executing good throws while on the move. That advantage really does appear to be game planned into the passing attack.
4. Inexperience. Russell is still developing. He is not as good as he will be. He should continue to improve in his ability to read defenses and slide protection as needed. His ridiculous success often obscures the fact that he doesn't yet have 50 starts to his credit. Most QBs who emerge as 10 quality starter types begin to accelerate their effectiveness after the 40 start mark. Peyton. Brady. The list is pretty long and it's almost predictable in terms of how much better a QB performs above and beyond that mark. I fully expect Russell to do the same. His steady improvement and dedication to his development really bodes well for him making that leap.
Overall, I think we could afford to upgrade the line. But if you pull back and look at it big picture -- let's also admit what the scheme and the current corps is allowing us to do. We don't have to spend top draft stock or UFA money at the position. We can allocate those resources elsewhere on the team. Just compare the difference in cap space between us and SF. They have a line that we should be envious of. But that cost in picks and salary means they have to sacrifice elsewhere. Like on the D Line. The secondary. At WR. We simply don't retain Thomas or Sherman or Bennett if we're spending cap space on the O line.
For what we want our O line to do (run the ZBS), they perform extremely well. Our rushing attack is top grade. Our offense ranked 8th overall in the NFL in scoring. Some of that credit has to go to the line.
Getting players that fit the scheme and can excel at both pass pro and run blocking is difficult. St. Louis just added a guy at #2 overall whose pass pro is considered extremely underdeveloped. You can spend a lot of high draft picks on the O line and still not get great pass pro prospects -- particularly if run blocking is the primary attribute you must consider.
I'd like to upgrade the line. I do think it's a major risk to keep allowing Russell to get hit. But I also think that improved experience in the guys we already have on the line at behind center will provide an organic improvement this season. Even if we're similarly unlucky at injury this year, we should be in good shape to absorb that challenge.
Ultimately, if the right prospects become available to us, I'd like us to pull the trigger. I do agree that OT talent is currently being severely overdrafted in the NFL. Next year should be yet another bumper crop of OT prospects. There are at least 3 guys going into 2015 that would have pushed the OTs taken in the back half of this past draft into round 2. If we look at teams that are taking these guys so highly -- the results that they've provided really pales compared to the line we already have right now.
Overall, I'm not willing to overlook the results of the whole. Not spending draft and cap stock along the O line has allowed us to redistribute that elsewhere on the team. We are a top 10 offense (even without Harvin for the year) and we're capable of retaining personnel elsewhere so that our team is very good across the board. We are effective running the ball. We are efficient at throwing the ball. The line factors into that. Not just in their performance. But in the flexibility their costs provide for the other 35 positions on the club.
There are a lot of factors that go into the statistical analysis. I'll cite a few that I can see would skew any analysis for the worse.
1. Injuries. Yes they happen. Although Seattle was pretty unfortunate in that regard -- particularly along the line. We were forced to play Bowie/Bailey a lot more than hoped. While they struggled, they also had some success. Overall, I'm pleased with their performance given the inexperience on what is admittedly a pretty long learning curve. I expect both players to really show consistency this season befitting the experience level. They paid the learning curve and should be poised to emerge from the other end more quickly as a result of the game experience they amassed last year. We will be a good 8 deep at the position group this season with a lot more flexibility in terms of plugging depth guys in.
2. Our offense. I don't see it cited much -- but our passing model is not a quick hitting WCO style. It relies more heavily on longer developing routes and play action passing. Additionally, since we run the ball with such frequency -- we often have a lot of attention paid at the LOS. Our offense by design really puts pressure on the Line and QB because of the numbers of defenders close to the line and the time we hold the ball.
Additionally, our offense is a run first offense. Pass protection is going to be a secondary element to run blocking. Seattle ran the ball extremely effectively. That's their primary function and they performed well.
I'm not really shocked at the lack of short yardage success. Teams that succeed at that are typically your traditional power man blocking types. Guys that move players. The zone scheme really isn't ideally suited for that purpose. The power in our attack comes from the backs. Not the line. You see it in the rigid prototype athletes we acquire at the RB position. The line doesn't have a lot of people movers. They are more get in the way and allow the back to engage in a seam where the defender is fighting through the lineman to get to him.
3. Personnel. Wilson is a great scrambling QB. More to the point, when he does scramble, he is great at buying time, allowing the defense to break down, and then executing good throws while on the move. That advantage really does appear to be game planned into the passing attack.
4. Inexperience. Russell is still developing. He is not as good as he will be. He should continue to improve in his ability to read defenses and slide protection as needed. His ridiculous success often obscures the fact that he doesn't yet have 50 starts to his credit. Most QBs who emerge as 10 quality starter types begin to accelerate their effectiveness after the 40 start mark. Peyton. Brady. The list is pretty long and it's almost predictable in terms of how much better a QB performs above and beyond that mark. I fully expect Russell to do the same. His steady improvement and dedication to his development really bodes well for him making that leap.
Overall, I think we could afford to upgrade the line. But if you pull back and look at it big picture -- let's also admit what the scheme and the current corps is allowing us to do. We don't have to spend top draft stock or UFA money at the position. We can allocate those resources elsewhere on the team. Just compare the difference in cap space between us and SF. They have a line that we should be envious of. But that cost in picks and salary means they have to sacrifice elsewhere. Like on the D Line. The secondary. At WR. We simply don't retain Thomas or Sherman or Bennett if we're spending cap space on the O line.
For what we want our O line to do (run the ZBS), they perform extremely well. Our rushing attack is top grade. Our offense ranked 8th overall in the NFL in scoring. Some of that credit has to go to the line.
Getting players that fit the scheme and can excel at both pass pro and run blocking is difficult. St. Louis just added a guy at #2 overall whose pass pro is considered extremely underdeveloped. You can spend a lot of high draft picks on the O line and still not get great pass pro prospects -- particularly if run blocking is the primary attribute you must consider.
I'd like to upgrade the line. I do think it's a major risk to keep allowing Russell to get hit. But I also think that improved experience in the guys we already have on the line at behind center will provide an organic improvement this season. Even if we're similarly unlucky at injury this year, we should be in good shape to absorb that challenge.
Ultimately, if the right prospects become available to us, I'd like us to pull the trigger. I do agree that OT talent is currently being severely overdrafted in the NFL. Next year should be yet another bumper crop of OT prospects. There are at least 3 guys going into 2015 that would have pushed the OTs taken in the back half of this past draft into round 2. If we look at teams that are taking these guys so highly -- the results that they've provided really pales compared to the line we already have right now.
Overall, I'm not willing to overlook the results of the whole. Not spending draft and cap stock along the O line has allowed us to redistribute that elsewhere on the team. We are a top 10 offense (even without Harvin for the year) and we're capable of retaining personnel elsewhere so that our team is very good across the board. We are effective running the ball. We are efficient at throwing the ball. The line factors into that. Not just in their performance. But in the flexibility their costs provide for the other 35 positions on the club.