Is Anthony Richardson worth pick 5?

[gmor]

The Seahawks are going to draft a DE. Richardson is a "boom or bust" candidate. Kiper is probably right that some QB-desperate team will take the gamble on him, but I hope it is not the Seahawks.

They will scrub the QBs first and only move off of that if none of the ones they really like fall to 5. Never a better opportunity to resolve this position. Lots of DL to be had later.

 

[gmor]

I'd make a significant bet that four QBs go in the top 8.

And yes. Richardson is worth that pick.

This mythical "DE" people keep bringing up is every bit as risky. Will Anderson won't be there. There are serious question marks with the other prospects, and a few of them (McDonald and Wilson, namely) will need every bit as much time developing as Richardson will.

We are thick at edge. The wonder i have is whether one of them could move to the middle successfully. Mafe maybe.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

They will scrub the QBs first and only move off of that if none of the ones they really like fall to 5. Never a better opportunity to resolve this position. Lots of DL to be had later.

I don’t believe that. The Seahawks are going with Geno and draft a DE at #5. They might take a developmental QB at #20, but probably not.

 

[Appyhawk]

I think it depends on what our goals are. Richardson the second coming (but less developed initially) of Cam Newton?

 

[Bear-Hawk]

I think it depends on what our goals are. Richardson the second coming (but less developed initially) of Cam Newton?

He could just as likely be a bust. Again, where’s the production? He has 17/9 TD/int ratio and a 54% completion percentage. That’s awful for top-5 draft pick. Not happening.

 

[Rat]

He could just as likely be a bust. Again, where’s the production? He has 17/9 TD/int ratio and a 54% completion percentage. That’s awful for top-5 draft pick. Not happening.

It is awful, and people are going to keep bringing up Josh Allen, but those guys become Kyle Boller or Akili Smith much more often. I love toolsy QBs, so I won't complain if we take him, but I don't have the greatest of confidence that he's going to end up being worthy of a pick that high.

 

[James in PA]

I like all 4 of these top QB's. At first, I was down on Young because of his size. But the kid is just too good of a QB and a person. Sees the field so well. Sign me up for anyone who reminds you of PM. Been on the Richardson bandwagon since day one. Yes he's a bit of a project but such a freakish athlete. Cannot overlook that upside. Stroud is another great kid who has all the tools and is ready to start sooner rather than later. With Levis I love the moxie, cannon for an arm and that quick release.

Sure, there may be no sure-thing Burrow, Lawrence types in this group coming out, but I see some Allen, Herbert potential for sure. And if we do go elsewhere with that first pick, please take Hooker later on. He'd be right up there with these guys had it not been for the injury.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

I don’t believe that. The Seahawks are going with Geno and draft a DE at #5. They might take a developmental QB at #20, but probably not.

What QB will be there at 20?

Beyond the positional value angle, consider the financial choice:

1) rookie contract QB @ 4-7 million per year (top ten pick)
2) Tier 2 vet QB @ 40+ million per (reported asking price of Smith & Jones).

That kind of value will push any of the projected top 4 QBs off the board before pick 20 and no one outside the top 4 is worth the investment.

 

[nwHawk]

The thing about this draft - it’s not stacked so expecting an elite QB prospect to drop to #20 is unlikely. Nothing is a sure pick, roll the dice.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

What QB will be there at 20?

Beyond the positional value angle, consider the financial choice:

1) rookie contract QB @ 4-7 million per year (top ten pick)
2) Tier 2 vet QB @ 40+ million per (reported asking price of Smith & Jones).

That kind of value will push any of the projected top 4 QBs off the board before pick 20 and no one outside the top 4 is worth the investment.

If nobody drops to 20, that’s fine. Take the top non/QB on your board. Maybe a center. That makes more sense. Build up the OL and draft Geno replacement in 2024.

 

[FrodosFinger]

A 55% completion percentage is nothing to write home about but when you’re 6-5” 240 and can fly it certainly opens up the playbook

 

[seatownlowdown]

If nobody drops to 20, that’s fine. Take the top non/QB on your board. Maybe a center. That makes more sense. Build up the OL and draft Geno replacement in 2024.

if they take a center at #20, i will side with antifa and seattle will burn


... in minecraft ofc

 

[onanygivensunday]

I hope that Pete and John stay patient with the QB position. Geno's asking price is likely north of what P&J are willing to spend.

Forget about Geno. I'd rather we re-sign Drew Lock and pay him what Geno made last year... and use this year's draft capital to rebuild the Dline, bolster the Oline with a quality Center and Guard, and strengthen the LB room, which is way too thin right now.

 

[NoGain]

The Seahawks pretty consistently overpay for their own. How many times have any of us said to ourselves...we gave them that much?...who else would have? I don't want them to pay Geno an amount that seems way over market value. I don't know exactly what that number is, but 30+ million seems too high for me, even on a contract that we can move on from after a couple of years.

But I'm prepared for a number bigger than I would like.

 

[bsuhawk]

The Seahawks pretty consistently overpay for their own. How many times have any of us said to ourselves...we gave them that much?...who else would have? I don't want them to pay Geno an amount that seems way over market value. I don't know exactly what that number is, but 30+ million seems too high for me, even on a contract that we can move on from after a couple of years.

But I'm prepared for a number bigger than I would like.

I'm expecting him to sign with the team with the biggest offer, which may not be the Seahawks. This is Geno's one and likely only shot at a big payday so I expect him to take full advantage of it. I certainly would if I were him.

 

[NoGain]

I'm expecting him to sign with the team with the biggest offer, which may not be the Seahawks. This is Geno's one and likely only shot at a big payday so I expect him to take full advantage of it. I certainly would if I were him.

In theory, I agree with you. But what team is going to pay him huge bucks on the open market if he gets there? Jets? Carolina? Atlanta? I know it only takes one team, but I have a hard time convincing myself that another team is going to offer him a 30-35 million dollar contract. Who's to say that his open market value isn't more in the 20-25 million range? We're talking a 32 year old journeyman QB with one remarkable year as a starter that kind of came out of the blue and caught most everyone by surprise.

I don't know. We'll see.

 

[bsuhawk]

In theory, I agree with you. But what team is going to pay him huge bucks on the open market if he gets there? Jets? Carolina? Atlanta? I know it only takes one team, but I have a hard time convincing myself that another team is going to offer him a 30-35 million dollar contract. Who's to say that his open market value isn't more in the 20-25 million range? We're talking a 32 year old journeyman QB with one remarkable year as a starter that kind of came out of the blue and caught most everyone by surprise.

I don't know. We'll see.

Who knows, you may be right. And if you are, I expect him to sign that contract with Seattle. However, the franchise tag this year for a QB is 32.146 million, which to me is the floor for a pro bowl QB. This is too big of a cap hit for most (all?) teams, so turn a big chunk of that into a signing bonus and add three years to the contract to spread out the cap hit. But to get Geno to sign this the guaranteed money will need to be significantly over 32 mil. Now throw in the fact that desperate NFL teams tend to do stupid things, especially with respect to QBs, and Geno ends up with a guaranteed two-year contract worth 37 to 40 mil per year.

As you pointed out, this is all conjecture. What I can say is that if I'm right, I hope the contract is NOT with the Seahawks.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

if they take a center at #20, i will side with antifa and seattle will burn


... in minecraft ofc

Well, I said take the top non/QB on the Seahawks board. By #20 there will have already been a big run on defensive linemen. I imagine interior offensive line is pretty high on the needs list, so guard/center might happen at #20. Let’s just say I’m taking the best DL/OL available.
Is that a problem?

 

[Double Tribble]

If nobody drops to 20, that’s fine. Take the top non/QB on your board. Maybe a center. That makes more sense. Build up the OL and draft Geno replacement in 2024.

How? We're not going to be picking #5 again, and trading up more than a few spots means giving away the farm. DL can be had much easier than a rookie qb1.

 

[FrodosFinger]

I’m watching Stroud throw dimes out there having the best combine passing