If the Rams beat the 9ers does it matter?

[Mad Dog]

Interesting discussions, but I like the simple option. Win the games ahead of us. :snack:

That’s the toughest option. Much easier to go 1-1 than 2-0.
Go ATL, MIN and PHI

 

[Polaris]

Strength of victory is the winning percentage of all opponents not just the three each you guys are mentioning. Since we played all but 4 common teams the only winning percentage that matters for SoV is that of MIN+PHI vs Wash+GB. That currently stands at 17 to 14.

We need one more PHI or MIN win to clinch SOV. Or a WASH or GB loss.

It is the total Win-loss records of the teams we have beaten. That means that New Orleans is counted for San Fran and Atlanta is counted for us which also hurts us. SoS favors Seattle.

Sorry. I mixed up SoS with SoV.

Not a problem. Doing the SoS and SoV calculations aren't easy even at the best of times. I did it wrong on my first draft tonight and had to edit my playoff projection post.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

Interesting discussions, but I like the simple option. Win the games ahead of us. :snack:

Ok boomer

 

[Scorpion05]

The idea that the Niners have too big a lead in strength of victory is not accurate. This is being spread around too much.

It's obviously not a guarantee, but we can technically win the division still if :

The Packers, Redskins, Saints lose a combined 4 games, and the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles win a combined 5. If that happens, then Week 17 won't matter if the Rams win in Week 16. This is based on the 538 simulation

Where we currently stand there is about a 10% chance of that scenario happening. So what's being said is mostly accurate, it's just not impossible. Seriously, you're describing a scenario where Seattle would need the Falcons, Vikings, and Eagles to go 5-1 during the next two weeks, and the Packers, Redskins, and Saints to go 3-4. It's possible, but incredibly unlikely.

How is it unlikely?

Vikings are playing well. They can go 2-0
Eagles can also go 2-0. And the Falcons are clearly playing well enough

Is it really farfetched for the Redskins to go 0-2, and the Saints and Packers to go 1-1 to close out?

Beating the Niners is a tough task. The scenario I mentioned is highly likely if you’re a betting man

 

[JonRud]

with the Saints win tonight - it's extremely unlikely the Seahawks are going to catch SF on SOV. We now trail by 3 games.

In order to just tie, we need 'our teams' to go 6-0 vs. 3-3, 5-1 vs 2-4, etc...

'Our' teams are Falcons (vs Jax, at TB), Vikings (vs. GB, vs Chi), Eagles (vs. Dal, at NYG)

'SF' teams are Saints (at Ten, at Car) Packers (at Min, at Det) Redskins (vs. NYG, at Dal)

I agree with the poster above, I'd say this is 10% likely (tops) to happen. We also need the Rams to win in SF to make this scenario even matter, so I'd say overall it's about 3-4% chance that the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West based on the 'Strength of Victory' tiebreaker over SF.

95%+ chance the Hawks need to beat SF in Week 17 to win the NFC West.

 

[Subzero717]

with the Saints win tonight - it's extremely unlikely the Seahawks are going to catch SF on SOV. We now trail by 3 games.

In order to just tie, we need 'our teams' to go 6-0 vs. 3-3, 5-1 vs 2-4, etc...

'Our' teams are Falcons (vs Jax, at TB), Vikings (vs. GB, vs Chi), Eagles (vs. Dal, at NYG)

'SF' teams are Saints (at Ten, at Car) Packers (at Min, at Det) Redskins (vs. NYG, at Dal)

I agree with the poster above, I'd say this is 10% likely (tops) to happen. We also need the Rams to win in SF to make this scenario even matter, so I'd say overall it's about 3-4% chance that the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West based on the 'Strength of Victory' tiebreaker over SF.

95%+ chance the Hawks need to beat SF in Week 17 to win the NFC West.

Hawks are winning out. So take your formulas and fancy math and shine em up real good.

 

[Scorpion05]

The Saints winning doesn’t change the original prediction model.

Saints need to lose 1, Redskins (who are terrible) need to lose 2, Packers need to lose 1.

Vikings beat Packers and Bears, Eagles beat Cowboys and Giants, Falcons win one

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It absolutely matters. After that choke job on Sunday to a crap Atlanta team, seeing them lose AGAIN is a confidence killer.

 

[Anajimmc]

What matters is LA physically kicking the crap out of them. I don't care if they win or lose, but I want to see them in pain.

 

[AgentDib]

Making up three games in SOV sounds unlikely with two weeks left but it's not that unreasonable. The teams that we are rooting for have 4 home games while the teams we are rooting against have 1 home game. More importantly, the Vikings play the Packers head to head in Minnesota as 4 1/2 point favorites.

In fact, "our" teams will be favored in all but one of the remaining games (all but falcons @ bucs), while "49ers" teams will be favored in half of their games. I'd put our chances of tying in SOV or better around 30% or so.

 

[Appyhawk]

Every game added to the Niners loss column means something to me and certainly doesn't hurt the Hawks. But if they weren't trying to take us down I have nothing against them. They've put together one heckuva team and I'll always wish the best for Sherm...well, almost always. Hawks first, everything else somewhere down the list.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Anaj makes a good point, the 29ers having to play the Rams before our game is perfect. Rams are a pretty physical team and hopefully they'll beat the crap out of Santa Clara.

 

[olyfan63]

What matters is LA physically kicking the crap out of them. I don't care if they win or lose, but I want to see them in pain.

Anaj makes a good point, the 29ers having to play the Rams before our game is perfect. Rams are a pretty physical team and hopefully they'll beat the crap out of Santa Clara.

THIS. If LA beats up on SF physically, win or lose, then we get the SF JV defense, and with any luck we get a few of our key Defensive guys back, Clowney, Quill, Kendricks, etc. maybe even Diggs, and our chances for a W in tha game get better and better.

 

[seahawks08]

Or take our byes in the next two weeks and smash everyone on the road is an option. Just saying.

 

[SpokaneHawks]

Need to play the games first........Just win!

 

[Mad Dog]

Much rather see SF coming into Clink on a 2 game losing streak and questioning their confidence and knowing that there is a potential for tiebreakers to screw them even if they win.

That's a way better scenario than any other.