Lots of people here are arguing that our best chance of another SB is to stay with PC. I was curious how many SBs are won by coaches with a long tenure so I looked at all SB winning head coaches since the 2000 season to determine the odds.
Here is the number of seasons for each SB winning coach since the shorter of his hiring or his last SB win with the team:
2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 14, 5, 4, 2, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 10, 1, 2, 2, 2, 7, 2, 5, 3
# of seasons - total SB wins
1 - 2
2 - 8
3 - 1
4 - 4
5 - 4
7 - 1 (Andy Reed, Chiefs)
10 - 1 (Bill B, won 2004 next 2014)
14 - 1 (Bill Cowher, 2005*, not a real win)
So the 3 coaches who won after more than 5 years either had Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or the Mighty Refs playing on their team.
11 of 23 SBs were won by coaches who were either in their first 2 seasons with the team (7), or had won a SB within the 2 prior seasons (4).
9 of 23 SBs were won by coaches who had been with the team 3-5 years (8) or had won a SB 3 years prior (1).
16 SBs won by coaches during their 1st 5 seasons with the team.
4 SBs won by BB after his 1st 5 seasons.
1 SB in season 7 (Ried)
1 SB in season 10 (Ried)
1 SB in season 14 (Cowher)
This backs up the idea that Head Coaches (who don't have Tom Brady) get "stale" after about 5 years.
Using this data, along with what we've seen of the "rebuilding" success since our last SB, along with the current state of coaching, what do you think the odds are that PC will win another SB with the Seahawks?
I think 0.001.
edit: p.s. This is PCs 14th season. In the 21st century, the only coach with longer tenure to win a SB is BB (at 16, 18 & 20 yrs)
Here is the number of seasons for each SB winning coach since the shorter of his hiring or his last SB win with the team:
2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 14, 5, 4, 2, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 10, 1, 2, 2, 2, 7, 2, 5, 3
# of seasons - total SB wins
1 - 2
2 - 8
3 - 1
4 - 4
5 - 4
7 - 1 (Andy Reed, Chiefs)
10 - 1 (Bill B, won 2004 next 2014)
14 - 1 (Bill Cowher, 2005*, not a real win)
So the 3 coaches who won after more than 5 years either had Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or the Mighty Refs playing on their team.
11 of 23 SBs were won by coaches who were either in their first 2 seasons with the team (7), or had won a SB within the 2 prior seasons (4).
9 of 23 SBs were won by coaches who had been with the team 3-5 years (8) or had won a SB 3 years prior (1).
16 SBs won by coaches during their 1st 5 seasons with the team.
4 SBs won by BB after his 1st 5 seasons.
1 SB in season 7 (Ried)
1 SB in season 10 (Ried)
1 SB in season 14 (Cowher)
This backs up the idea that Head Coaches (who don't have Tom Brady) get "stale" after about 5 years.
Using this data, along with what we've seen of the "rebuilding" success since our last SB, along with the current state of coaching, what do you think the odds are that PC will win another SB with the Seahawks?
I think 0.001.
edit: p.s. This is PCs 14th season. In the 21st century, the only coach with longer tenure to win a SB is BB (at 16, 18 & 20 yrs)
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