Holmgren:‘Huge mistake’ if RW doesn’t sign ‘very fair' offer

[TwistedHusky]

I think people need to stop expecting Wilson to 'be reasonable'.

It was clear this was going to be a problem when we were getting rumors from Wilson's camp that they wanted his contract renegotiated, even though it was against the rules for a team to renegotiate a rookie deal at that point in the contract.

At the time, everyone pointed the finger at Ashley, how she was supposedly pushing it from the background, but based on what we are seeing now - it is probably clear that was Wilson himself. I am not even sure that a lot of what we are blaming the agent for is stemming from the agent.

Wilson has unbounded confidence. It allows him to expect to start even as a rookie. It allows him to go into the playoffs with the expectation he can beat anyone. And it allows him to go into the Superbowl against one of the most productive teams in history, and fully expect to shellac them.

That is the same kind of confidence that lets the other team members believe in themselves and their QB, that they can produce in the face of adversity. The same confidence that let Wilson come back in that horrible performance in GB.

It is an asset, but ....that same confidence is going to make Wilson see/believe that he is the best in the NFL and he should rightfully be compensated like that. And he is going to reasonably expect that if he gets hurt, it will be because we gutted the offensive line - so why should he have to bear all the risk for strategic decisions the team management is making?
Of course he is going to ask for a guaranteed deal.

(Frankly, if Wilson does not work out or gets hurt the team is screwed anyway so we might as well acknowledge that. Nobody wins long term to a playoff capacity with backup QBs. One or two games in the playoffs occasionally, but if Wilson breaks, that might be the cost of playing the game.)

Either way, Wilson sees himself as the #1 NFL player and that same boundless confidence that lets him produce in the most difficult circumstances, is going to make it very hard for him to take less than he feels he deserves. Because he clearly feels he has shown he will be HOF type trajectory and does not/ won't see the team is has to allow that he might turn into a Tim Lincecum (spelling?) instead.

 

[bandiger]

Exactly, many out there think it's Russ' responsibility to sign for way less, so that other guys can be signed. That's not how it works. People comparing this to the Brady situation is ridiculous as well. He has already went thru a couple massive contracts. This is a guy, who has massively outplayed his contract, trying to get the best contract he can. He's not doing anything different than other players.

To my knowledge, nobody that was generally considered the 7-10th best QB has been offered to be paid as the 1st or 2nd and turned it down, holding out for more money. So yes, he is doing something different from all the other players.

The fact you think Wilson is only the 7th to 10th best QB in the NFL is exactly why he has to hold out for what he's worth. It's one thing to be generally regarded as, say, a top 3 QB and take an obvious pay cut to help your team. It's another when you dramatically and unarguably reverse a team's offensive fortunes and people STILL see your height more than your accomplishments. It's about respect.

So to gain the respect of everybody else, you hold the team who believed in you and actually gave you a chance hostage. How much likely do you think it is that he would be in this negotiating position had he been drafted by any of the the other teams? How many teams actually would have given him the starts and stuck with him through early struggles over the big free agent signing they just made (or incumbent safe bet)?

There were several teams interested by third/fourth round. He would be a starter eventually, so if Seahawks didn't draft him he would probably be balling out on the Eagles, Redskins, etc.

 

[Hawks46]

Exactly, many out there think it's Russ' responsibility to sign for way less, so that other guys can be signed. That's not how it works. People comparing this to the Brady situation is ridiculous as well. He has already went thru a couple massive contracts. This is a guy, who has massively outplayed his contract, trying to get the best contract he can. He's not doing anything different than other players.

To my knowledge, nobody that was generally considered the 7-10th best QB has been offered to be paid as the 1st or 2nd and turned it down, holding out for more money. So yes, he is doing something different from all the other players.

The fact you think Wilson is only the 7th to 10th best QB in the NFL is exactly why he has to hold out for what he's worth. It's one thing to be generally regarded as, say, a top 3 QB and take an obvious pay cut to help your team. It's another when you dramatically and unarguably reverse a team's offensive fortunes and people STILL see your height more than your accomplishments. It's about respect.

ESPN just had an article where 35 GM's and HC's around the league ranked all the QB's. Wilson ended up at 8 right behind Philip Rivers at the top of "tier 2" which is a good, solid QB that needs a bit of help and can't carry the team mostly by himself.

Which I think is a fair assessment. So far, that's what it's looked like. Wilson has done a lot with less (WR's, OL), but he also needs to improve his field vision, and pocket presence.

The leverage that Wilson has this year is that he has Graham. That guy just helps a QB out, no matter what QB it is. Russ's 3rd down efficiciency and RZ TD's should go up. His completion % should also rise, as well as yards. Then he's going to have the stats to convince people he's the real deal, and someone else will sell their franchise to get him.

Which is what he and his agent are hoping for.

 

[scutterhawk]

interesting discussion and positions. I am curios why Russel Wilson wants to put aside so much money for a year for a longer contract. If he gets paid 1.5 million versus 22 million, sign in bonus and stuff like that but a 4 year deal if that is true, why is it not good? For instance given the unknowns of a players career and tenure, injuries can be a huge variance for taking money now versus betting on the future. I mean insurance money is there, but there is a cost for all taking insurance. I am still wondering if a basball kind contract will ever happen in NFL. You can have guarantees, but players can get cut in a span of 2 years or traded to another team. So given RW's ascend, he can be one of the greatest, but if he goes to free agency and goes with the highest bidder but the team has a really bad front office or doesn't have a defense build, the winning percentage can easily go down. Owners won't agree to fully guaranteed contracts, and the player unions won't want RW to take anything less, as it would set a precedent for the per position price.

Can he be as great as Aaron Rodgers, definitely, can he be paid higher than Aaron Rodgers, sure, some teams would be willing, will it be the right fit for him, I don't know, can he change a team and make it a great fit for him to keep on winning, to an extent yes, but he can't build or control the defense, the maximum say he will have as a QB will be around offense.

Good post, you didn't have to deconstruct Russell Wilson's attributes to get your point across.
Too many are angered at him for not just taking the first offer, and feel the need to put a negative spin on everything he does and doesn't do.
I agree with your overall assessment on the playing for 1.5 M this Year, vs. taking a pretty good offer now ( avoid losing $$$), and turn up his value button for a huge payday in the next contract.
It was the Seahawks that took a chance on him in the Draft, and because he damned well earned it, gave him the starting Quarterback job, for which he's earned a decent raise, but, I think his Agent needs to roll one up and take a hit of reality, then pass it to RW.

 

[ctrcat]

Exactly, many out there think it's Russ' responsibility to sign for way less, so that other guys can be signed. That's not how it works. People comparing this to the Brady situation is ridiculous as well. He has already went thru a couple massive contracts. This is a guy, who has massively outplayed his contract, trying to get the best contract he can. He's not doing anything different than other players.

To my knowledge, nobody that was generally considered the 7-10th best QB has been offered to be paid as the 1st or 2nd and turned it down, holding out for more money. So yes, he is doing something different from all the other players.

It's another when you dramatically and unarguably reverse a team's offensive fortunes and people STILL see your height more than your accomplishments. It's about respect.

The 2010 Panthers were by FAR the worst offensive team in football. Look it up if you don't believe. For that matter, they may have been the worst offensive football team of all time, that I have no idea. Believe it or not as well, there was actually a controversy at the time whether to take Peterson, Dareus, or Green with the #1 overall pick over a QB post-lockout that played only one year of big time college football in a non-pro-style system. They've also done relatively little to give Cam adequate weapons/protection in four years but he truly wanted to "reward" the team that "took a chance" on him with a win/win deal for player and team. If it was truly about height more than accomplishments as you say, then they would have offered even less than Cam, but supposedly they have offered more if not "much" more. But he wants "MUCH" more? Again I say this because Cam's contract is the baseline over all other players/positions of any team in these negotiations at this point.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

interesting discussion and positions. I am curios why Russel Wilson wants to put aside so much money for a year for a longer contract. If he gets paid 1.5 million versus 22 million, sign in bonus and stuff like that but a 4 year deal if that is true, why is it not good? For instance given the unknowns of a players career and tenure, injuries can be a huge variance for taking money now versus betting on the future. I mean insurance money is there, but there is a cost for all taking insurance. I am still wondering if a basball kind contract will ever happen in NFL. You can have guarantees, but players can get cut in a span of 2 years or traded to another team. So given RW's ascend, he can be one of the greatest, but if he goes to free agency and goes with the highest bidder but the team has a really bad front office or doesn't have a defense build, the winning percentage can easily go down. Owners won't agree to fully guaranteed contracts, and the player unions won't want RW to take anything less, as it would set a precedent for the per position price.

Can he be as great as Aaron Rodgers, definitely, can he be paid higher than Aaron Rodgers, sure, some teams would be willing, will it be the right fit for him, I don't know, can he change a team and make it a great fit for him to keep on winning, to an extent yes, but he can't build or control the defense, the maximum say he will have as a QB will be around offense.

This is a good analogy. I expect that some things can be changed with other teams. Look at SB 48 and that season. Donkos changed their entire offense (probably not too much) to fit DonkoQB and they got to the dance. Our team ate him for bkfast and dinner. There are some things better on other teams, and some not. The positivity that gets put out by RW may be enough but then again......they may need 2 of our Moses' to help out. On our team of 12s, we have our Moses, and we aint giving him up. He he he :thirishdrinkers: :thirishdrinkers: :thirishdrinkers:

 

[chris98251]

This is so much like the Arod situation, Arod good looking young player, said all the right things about wanting to stay, would not sign, gets offer from Texas for 250 mill and leaves with the legacy being it is not about the money.

Wilson's agent is negotiating like the AROD deal when Boars was Arods agent.

 

[HawkGA]

Didn't Shaun Alexander sign a contract with the stipulation he never be franchised? Seems like that is the direction Wilson should go. 3 year deal but at the end he can't be franchised.

 

[kf3339]

I have said this before and will do it again. RW and/or his agent have misdiagnosed his true value to this team. His pay with this team will be dictated by what role they want of a starting QB who plays within their structure. This is a run oriented offense with a truly dominant defense. If those two don't figure it out quick they will be looking elsewhere for that paycheck, because it won't be with this team.

Right now I can easily see us trading him after this season and getting serious assets in return.

Just saying.....

 

[SoulfishHawk]

:metallicblue.:

 

[rockdog]

Concerning the interview, I have listened to plenty of Mike Holmgren press conferences and interviews and usually when he is giving his opinion, he is clear that it is just his opinion or just what 'his' interpretation is. That did not seem to be the case with this interview, he spoke pretty definitively about this situation.

Brock and Salk talked about this before when Danny O'Neil gave out ball park numbers, and some said he was just speculating. They made it clear that behind the scenes, they see and hear from many authoritative people involved on both sides. And while they usually are not given exact info, they are given information that is in the ball park if not closer to actual, but it's off the record; So it is entirely possible Mike knows some things.

In the end it really doesn't matter because we will all know soon enough, so get your popcorn, should be a show either way.

 

[northseahawk]

It's outrageous that RW wants equal or more than Rogers. And whats funny is that there are some who even support his position. In fact, I'm surprised he has the balls to even ask for that!

Let's see,
Rogers= multiple MVPs, constant 350+/3+td gamer, he is the freaking offense, defense, and everything in between for that team.
RW= the team makes him and bails him out, lynch constantly attracts everyone from him, all he needs to do is manage the offense to 18 points to win, doesn't need to pass or score passing tds constantly..... yes he won a super bowl and gets a few miraculous plays a game, but he should not be in discussion with the top 4-5 qbs.

yes he has achieved a lot (although majority due to lynch n the D), but he still deserves a max of 20 mill/season. He deserves a slap across the head IF he thinks he deserves more.

The success of 5 his team is because of: (in order)
1) Pete/John
2) Defense
3) Lynch
4) RW

I don't think there is nothing complicated about this case n situation. Pay the guy his 20 million n not a dime more. If he wants more, tell him good luck somewhere else. We are not a traditional franchise that sacrifices the team by letting a selfish player get what he wants.
He says he wants to be paid according to his play. If Rogers is a 10 on a scale, RW is around a 7 max. He deserves that much much money in proportion as well.

His biggest skill of scrambling won't be as dangerous in a couple more years when he ages n slows. He needs to develop other skill sets, which are average at the moment.

sometimes it comes out harsh, but the reality is reality. I fully believe that Pete n John think as I do. Don't give into his or any of the other selfish players n their agents.

 

[byau]

It's outrageous that RW wants equal or more than Rogers. And whats funny is that there are some who even support his position. In fact, I'm surprised he has the balls to even ask for that!

Nice bullet item post

A few things:

Rodgers also signed his contract two years ago ... newer contracts always set the market. Rodgers would be paid more this summer if his contract were signed this year.

Even that aside, you get paid not always what you're worth (and that will always be debated no matter what it is) but what people will pay for you. If Russell were a UFA this summer, there would certainly be teams willing to pay equal-to-or-more-than-Aaron-Rodgers money.

A neat little example:

Twice now in the last three months or so a really nice medium sized Walter Jones jersey came up on ebay. I'm on a budget, otherwise I would have really tried hard to get it. The seller set the min bid to $12 (I wrote him about it, he said he likes the gamble and game of it all)

First auction: went for about $52.
Second auction three months later: went for about $85

What changed? Maybe someone realized how rarely these come up on ebay (almost never, usually just throwbacks and usually at $150). Or just timing? Or who knows whatever it was.

And so I would bet that there are teams that would also be willing to put that money up for Wilson. Whatever you think about Wilson, top tier or near top tier, franchise or near-franchise, this level of QB rarely or almost never comes on the market, esp at the beginning of their career. I think the last ones that did: Peyton Manning (towards the end of his career) and Brett Favre (end of his career). I can't think of another QB of this caliber to ever hit the open market. So if Wilson does, yes teams would compete to pay for him.

If the Seahawks want to keep up they will need to be competitive with what Wilson thinks he can get elsewhere. They can guess, or let Wilson test the market and then the Seahawks have to match it. Or else they stick to their budget and let him go because someone is going to be willing to pay (sadly like that Walter Jones jersey I wanted but decided to stick to my budget)

 

[rideaducati]

Russell will sign next week when training camp starts and all of this fun debate will be over.

 

[byau]

Russell will sign next week when training camp starts and all of this fun debate will be over.

To be honest I think that's the plan all along. .. if he signed earlier, we'd have nothing to talk about and be bored out of our skulls until training camp. At least now we can talk about Russell and then when he signs we can talk about training camp

 

[Narniaman]

With all due respect. . . I don't see why it would be such a "huge mistake", at least from the Seahawks point of view.

They've got Russ under contract for the next year for a ridiculously low amount -- he'll be making less than 10% of the salary of his quarterback peers.

Even if RW doesn't sign next year, they can franchise tag him for a lot less than what he is allegedly asking. And the year after that, they could still franchise tag him. . .not to mention using a non-exclusive tag and maybe getting a couple of first round draft picks, which, of course, would cost a whole lot less to sign.

Even if the Seahawks won the next two superbowls and Russell was the MVP. . . .it would only be because of Seattle's D and Marshawn Lynch, and in spite of Russell Wilson being too short. . . right??? And besides, in two or three years he will have slowed considerably, and no longer be able to scramble around like he does now, so he won't be as good as he is now. Even now, it's questionable whether he is even one of the top eight quarterbacks in the leauge.

And since it's the system, and not the individual player that is producing the championship, they should just be able to draft another quarterback in the third or fourth round who could step in and take advantage of the tremendous D and running game, and the Seahawks would be on top again in two, three years top. . . ??

Right????

 

[hawknation2015]

Even if RW doesn't sign next year, they can franchise tag him for a lot less than what he is allegedly asking.

Exclusive franchise tag for next year is right now over $25 million or over 15% of the cap.

 

[northseahawk]

It's outrageous that RW wants equal or more than Rogers. And whats funny is that there are some who even support his position. In fact, I'm surprised he has the balls to even ask for that!

Nice bullet item post

A few things:

Rodgers also signed his contract two years ago ... newer contracts always set the market. Rodgers would be paid more this summer if his contract were signed this year.

Even that aside, you get paid not always what you're worth (and that will always be debated no matter what it is) but what people will pay for you. If Russell were a UFA this summer, there would certainly be teams willing to pay equal-to-or-more-than-Aaron-Rodgers money.

A neat little example:

Twice now in the last three months or so a really nice medium sized Walter Jones jersey came up on ebay. I'm on a budget, otherwise I would have really tried hard to get it. The seller set the min bid to $12 (I wrote him about it, he said he likes the gamble and game of it all)

First auction: went for about $52.
Second auction three months later: went for about $85

What changed? Maybe someone realized how rarely these come up on ebay (almost never, usually just throwbacks and usually at $150). Or just timing? Or who knows whatever it was.

And so I would bet that there are teams that would also be willing to put that money up for Wilson. Whatever you think about Wilson, top tier or near top tier, franchise or near-franchise, this level of QB rarely or almost never comes on the market, esp at the beginning of their career. I think the last ones that did: Peyton Manning (towards the end of his career) and Brett Favre (end of his career). I can't think of another QB of this caliber to ever hit the open market. So if Wilson does, yes teams would compete to pay for him.

If the Seahawks want to keep up they will need to be competitive with what Wilson thinks he can get elsewhere. They can guess, or let Wilson test the market and then the Seahawks have to match it. Or else they stick to their budget and let him go because someone is going to be willing to pay (sadly like that Walter Jones jersey I wanted but decided to stick to my budget)

Good points and I agree. It's not a fair world out there. But RW n his agent keeps bragging about being paid fairly n in accordance to his play, which is not worth worthy of the amount he is asking.

Yes in a couple years, Rogers might get 30 million/year. But today's market is today's market. RW can ask for whatever is fair at the time when this upcoming deal ends.
This world will crash if deals are signed in accordance to the future.

I don't know man.. like the other guy said, hope he signs something soon so all this drama ends. But personally I think RW is one hell of a attention seeker. He just knows how to do it the most clever way.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I keep reading that Russell is making a big mistake if he plays this year for 1.5 mil. I am 99% certain that regardless of him signing a new contract he will be paid 1.5 mil for this year. Unless someone knows the Seahawks are going to tear up the last year of his deal, which everything I've read says the Hawks will not do.

RUSSELL WILL BE PAID 1.5 MIL THIS YEAR.

That's all I wanted to add to this silly discussion.

SC

but the problem is your not factoring in any signing bonus. Any deal made will include a massive signing bonus. So yeah, his base salary will be 1.5 but he'd most likely make 15-20 million this year with the signing bonus. The benefit to that is that 20M signing bonus can be spread out through the life of the contract.

So assuming he get's a large signing bonus (it would seem more than Likely) He'd be turning down the difference between the 1.5 and the signing bonus total. Let's assume it's 15M this year.

Now what most aren't factoring in is the opportunity costs. If he plays our his contract for 1.5 he loses out on that "assumed 15M" He won't make that up anytime soon, furthermore he will have lost the opportunity to take that money and invest it, thus gaining a return on that investment over the coarse of the year, which is no small sum. Say it's 15 M and he invest in mutual funds the return on that can be anywhere from 3%-10% (depending on the market).

He loses the opportunity to grow that money. I think if a deal doesn't get done in the next week, it be put off till next year and that would be undesirable.

He'll get the signing bonus next year though. There is no opportunity cost other than the investment income which could be generated on having 15 million in his pocket a year sooner. If the Seahawks are extending him and not actually re-negotiating this year's contract then that's the only thing RW really loses out on (e.g. interest).

If RW thinks that his contract value will go up by more in a year than the returns he could generate from his signing bonus investment income then he is actually better off on waiting.

The benefit of extending RW this year is really for the Seahawks because they can spread the salary cap hit of the bonus an extra year (by including this year).

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

I can't say anyone's take is wrong. I'm just glad that as frustrating as this can be for fans, things have yet to get really ugly.

Yesterday I saw some of the NFL Films story of the 1993 Oilers, when Moon was benched, Buddy tried to punch out the OC during a game, a D-lineman killed his friend while driving drunk then pulled out a shotgun and offed himself right there on the highway – with 3 games left in the season, and Mr. Adams was prepping to blow the whole thing up and take his team to Tennessee.

Again, as annoying as all this contract speculation is, both sides have remained diplomatic. That's a plus going forward. Stuff like the Oilers' rocky season gives it some perspective. Until literal punches start flying and Seahawks begin disparaging each other in the press, I'm not too worried. If Wilson doesn't sign this year it'll be more stressful because everyone will continue to wonder and speculate, but it won't signal a point of no return, IMO.