Holmgren:‘Huge mistake’ if RW doesn’t sign ‘very fair' offer

[Tical21]

He's forsaking 1-2 million in interest on the portion of the signing bonus he would get this year plus risking the gap between any guarantees and his insurance amount, on the incredibly slim chance he would have a career-ending injury, which hasn't happened to a QB in decades.

Tical, although a career ending injury is a possibility, you'll note I didn't mention that possibility. Instead, I raised the specter of an injury limiting his mobility. I direct you to Michael Vick and RGIII as very recent examples of such injuries to mobile quarterbacks, although Russell is certainly much more intelligent about avoiding collision.

You don't have to go to Vick or RGIII however to support this point; Aaron Rodgers sustained an injury that limited his mobility before the NFCC. And Rodgers uses his legs far less, albeit very effectively.

Rodgers has proven he can function at an elite level with diminished mobility. Russ has not, in fact our offense has, for long stretches, been DOA when Wilson isn't choosing to keep the ball regularly, as the late PE pointed out often and correctly.

Focusing on the career-ender to the exclusion of other, far more regular mobility-limiting injuries, is a curious and flawed decision.

I want to add that most NFL QBs experience a year where injuries or other factors derail their productivity. Again, Lynch being at the end of his career, the possibility of getting a nick, turf toe, anything that limits his mobility hurts Russ far more than other quarterbacks.

I agree with Sgt. Largent that NFL QBs likely lean towards believing it will not happen to them in a contract year. So I don't say my analysis means Russ will see things from my perspective. I just believe they would be well-served to remember the possibility if the difference is 1-2 million as they play on a championship caliber team.

He could very well gamble against injury or fall-off and come up aces, and I'd be thrilled with that scenario if it means a ring next year, as would we all, even if it does mean paying him money that could hamstring us as a consequence. After two rings, I'll be happy to watch Russ scamper around and make magic for the next decade.

Once upon a time, I would have argued this premise also. In reality, it isn't correct. We've seen too many guys come back from ACL's and be fine. We've seen guys come back from shoulder, thumb, foot injuries, and be fine. We've seen guys come back from concussions and be fine. Heck, a quarterback recently had neck fusion surgery and then received one of the largest contracts in NFL history.

There realistically isn't an injury out there that Russell could get that would have a major impact on his dollar value. If he tears an ACL, the Seahawks are still in the same boat. Sign him or not? If they don't, some team will give him a ridiculous contract. In order for his value to take a hit from an injury, he would have to return from the injury and prove ineffective. There just isn't enough time before the decision must be made on him for this to happen.

Diseases, losing eyeballs, losing limbs, or maybe a severe head injury, etc., are the only things that would keep Russell from cashing in. There is realistically a far less than 1% chance that any injury would prevent him from seeing top dollar. The chance is so insignificant that it isn't worth considering.

No matter what happens this season, he'll still be a young QB with an unparalleled resume, and those types of people get a crapton of coin.

 

[rideaducati]

He's forsaking 1-2 million in interest on the portion of the signing bonus he would get this year plus risking the gap between any guarantees and his insurance amount, on the incredibly slim chance he would have a career-ending injury, which hasn't happened to a QB in decades.

Tical, although a career ending injury is a possibility, you'll note I didn't mention that possibility. Instead, I raised the specter of an injury limiting his mobility. I direct you to Michael Vick and RGIII as very recent examples of such injuries to mobile quarterbacks, although Russell is certainly much more intelligent about avoiding collision.

You don't have to go to Vick or RGIII however to support this point; Aaron Rodgers sustained an injury that limited his mobility before the NFCC. And Rodgers uses his legs far less, albeit very effectively.

Rodgers has proven he can function at an elite level with diminished mobility. Russ has not, in fact our offense has, for long stretches, been DOA when Wilson isn't choosing to keep the ball regularly, as the late PE pointed out often and correctly.

Focusing on the career-ender to the exclusion of other, far more regular mobility-limiting injuries, is a curious and flawed decision.

I want to add that most NFL QBs experience a year where injuries or other factors derail their productivity. Again, Lynch being at the end of his career, the possibility of getting a nick, turf toe, anything that limits his mobility hurts Russ far more than other quarterbacks.

I agree with Sgt. Largent that NFL QBs likely lean towards believing it will not happen to them in a contract year. So I don't say my analysis means Russ will see things from my perspective. I just believe they would be well-served to remember the possibility if the difference is 1-2 million as they play on a championship caliber team.

He could very well gamble against injury or fall-off and come up aces, and I'd be thrilled with that scenario if it means a ring next year, as would we all, even if it does mean paying him money that could hamstring us as a consequence. After two rings, I'll be happy to watch Russ scamper around and make magic for the next decade.

Once upon a time, I would have argued this premise also. In reality, it isn't correct. We've seen too many guys come back from ACL's and be fine. We've seen guys come back from shoulder, thumb, foot injuries, and be fine. We've seen guys come back from concussions and be fine. Heck, a quarterback recently had neck fusion surgery and then received one of the largest contracts in NFL history.

There realistically isn't an injury out there that Russell could get that would have a major impact on his dollar value. If he tears an ACL, the Seahawks are still in the same boat. Sign him or not? If they don't, some team will give him a ridiculous contract. In order for his value to take a hit from an injury, he would have to return from the injury and prove ineffective. There just isn't enough time before the decision must be made on him for this to happen.

Diseases, losing eyeballs, losing limbs, or maybe a severe head injury, etc., are the only things that would keep Russell from cashing in. There is realistically a far less than 1% chance that any injury would prevent him from seeing top dollar. The chance is so insignificant that it isn't worth considering.

No matter what happens this season, he'll still be a young QB with an unparalleled resume, and those types of people get a crapton of coin.

We're seeing fewer guys coming back from concussions though.

With the rams on the schedule twice a year and their propensity for cheap shots, I wouldn't go into this season without signing a contract that (supposedly) pays top 3 money.

 

[HawkGA]

They based it on CLEVELAND...

That job would suck!

 

[Ozzy]

I only skimmed the thread so this might be redundant but here it goes. It's rumored be 21 annually with a large portion of it guaranteed. I think that is fair and Wilson should sign that deal. But I would also add that 90% of the league would pay him that or more and would love to do it. I think some were questioning above what his market would be at that price and I have zero doubt he would get essentially whatever he wanted in the open market. 21 seems fair though and I don't understand why he doesn't take it.

 

[LickMyNuts]

I only skimmed the thread so this might be redundant but here it goes. It's rumored be 21 annually with a large portion of it guaranteed. I think that is fair and Wilson should sign that deal. But I would also add that 90% of the league would pay him that or more and would love to do it. I think some were questioning above what his market would be at that price and I have zero doubt he would get essentially whatever he wanted in the open market. 21 seems fair though and I don't understand why he doesn't take it.

There are some teams that would pay RW more money because they are desperate for a QB.

Seattle has become a desirable destination for players and it is one of the reasons why we have been able to resign so many of our own players.

I think if RW doesn't sign by training camp that he has his eyes on joining another team.

Perhaps a team on the east coast.

I really hope he doesn't continue the "Go Hawks" BS.

It is patronizing and disingenuous.

 

[SeahawkPQ]

I really hope he doesn't continue the "Go Hawks" BS.

It is patronizing and disingenuous.

You sound like a jilted lover. This is Wilson's career. My god some of you people are pathetic.

 

[SeahawkPQ]

I kind of think the Seahawks should give Wilson what he is asking for, but with the stipulation that he make a list of the players for them to cut to be able to afford his salary. This whole "get yours" attitude is fine and all but let's face it, however much he gets isn't going to affect how much money the team spends on players. He's not getting more of Paul Allen's money. Likely, he's getting Mebane's money. Maybe Okung's money.

The salary cap is 143 million with a 53 man roster, so I guess you would support every player making more than the 2.7 average having to do this, right?

 

[LickMyNuts]

I really hope he doesn't continue the "Go Hawks" BS.

It is patronizing and disingenuous.

You sound like a jilted lover. This is Wilson's career. My god some of you people are pathetic.

The only thing pathetic is your response.

If you want to win as a QB you take the money and win. Make it up in endorsements and maintaining your image as a winner.

If you want to go to another team you hold out for a contract that is above what the team can afford to keep winning.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I disagree with Holmgren's judgement regarding the decision to wait. It is very unlikely that Wilson would make as much money today than he would waiting until after Luck signs his deal next year.

The Colts are very likely going to let Luck play out his deal as well, it's Irsay's M.O. Not to mention, Luck's 5th year only pays him 16M and change.. far less than the 22M+ he will surely get.

Then you have to think Luck's agent will stall a bit to let Wilson get his deal and vice versa too. I mean Luck could very well ink a long term deal too.. just think they will do the same thing the Seahawks are doing and try to capitalize on the lower cap figure as long as possible.

 

[Rob12]

I love this idea from an earlier post.

PCJS:
Okay Russ, here is a contract. It's exactly what you're asking for. Sign away. But first, we need you to do something for us.

Russ:
Wow! Alright, what do you need me to do?

PCJS:
Pick the players that we will cut in training camp. Here is our rosters, with salaries included. Here is a calculator as well. You have to trim $18-20 million off of the cap. Good luck.

Russ:
That's not my job...

PCJS:
You're right, Russ. It's their jobs. And after you sign your contract, we can't afford to pay them anymore. So you better get started.

Russ stares blankly at the paper.

Obviously this is asinine, but in theory it is spot on. This will be the result. Mebane, McDaniel, Baldwin, Kearse. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Better unload Bennett, too. Okung? See you later. Kam might be getting long in the tooth.

The point is the Wilson deal is going to hurt - badly. He wants the moon and it's going to turn our roster on its head.

 

[Rob12]

One thing that I can't stop thinking about.

Russ mentioned $25M on Kimmel. I don't think that was just a number arbitrarily tossed out there. Everything that comes from his mouth in a media setting is calculated.

He wants $25M a season, and he probably wants $70M guaranteed.

And you know what? The hell with that.

 

[erik2690]

It wasn't Kimmel and you can certainly make that assumption, but that's certainly not exactly evidence or a for sure way to know what he's thinking. Like within the phrase where he used 25 mil as a marker, 21.85 isn't really as normal sounding a generic big salary to throw out. It's certainly possible you are right, but the more prevalent thing I've heard is that APY is actually pretty sorted out and this is more about G'teed money and possibly signing bonus. I know just as little as anyone, but I have keeping eyes and ears on this quite a bit.

 

[erik2690]

I love this idea from an earlier post.

PCJS:
Okay Russ, here is a contract. It's exactly what you're asking for. Sign away. But first, we need you to do something for us.

Russ:
Wow! Alright, what do you need me to do?

PCJS:
Pick the players that we will cut in training camp. Here is our rosters, with salaries included. Here is a calculator as well. You have to trim $18-20 million off of the cap. Good luck.

Russ:
That's not my job...

PCJS:
You're right, Russ. It's their jobs. And after you sign your contract, we can't afford to pay them anymore. So you better get started.

Russ stares blankly at the paper.

Obviously this is asinine, but in theory it is spot on. This will be the result. Mebane, McDaniel, Baldwin, Kearse. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Better unload Bennett, too. Okung? See you later. Kam might be getting long in the tooth.

The point is the Wilson deal is going to hurt - badly. He wants the moon and it's going to turn our roster on its head.

But it's asinine on so many other levels where is this idea that his extension puts us 18-20 over the cap with rising cap? I mean it is likely that guys have to leave at points as they also did when Russ was on his rookie deal, but 18-20 cap hit and cut guys this camp is pretty nonsensical.

 

[Exittium]

if Our roster ends up "gutted" in the end because of the Wilson deal, then he'll go from a fan favorite to probably one of the most disliked.

Im not numbers or cap guy, but I'll toss out some random numbers, What if Seattle offered him 23 mil a year, for 7 years? That's highest paid per year, and highest overall at 161 mil, with 48% guaranteed would be 77,280,000 and still be the highest guaranteed amount a player would receive? I mean I know its not that simple but I'm just curious I guess. Trying to learn this cap number stuff can be a pita lol

Just trying to learn how the cap and numbers and deals work

 

[TheRealDTM]

:th2thumbs: to everyone who was bashing people for saying things similar 2 months ago.

 

[misfit]

I love this idea from an earlier post.

PCJS:
Okay Russ, here is a contract. It's exactly what you're asking for. Sign away. But first, we need you to do something for us.

Russ:
Wow! Alright, what do you need me to do?

PCJS:
Pick the players that we will cut in training camp. Here is our rosters, with salaries included. Here is a calculator as well. You have to trim $18-20 million off of the cap. Good luck.

Russ:
That's not my job...

PCJS:
You're right, Russ. It's their jobs. And after you sign your contract, we can't afford to pay them anymore. So you better get started.

Russ stares blankly at the paper.

Obviously this is asinine, but in theory it is spot on. This will be the result. Mebane, McDaniel, Baldwin, Kearse. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Better unload Bennett, too. Okung? See you later. Kam might be getting long in the tooth.

The point is the Wilson deal is going to hurt - badly. He wants the moon and it's going to turn our roster on its head.

I wonder if Earl and Sherm were asked the same thing?

 

[hawknation2015]

I love this idea from an earlier post.

PCJS:
Okay Russ, here is a contract. It's exactly what you're asking for. Sign away. But first, we need you to do something for us.

Russ:
Wow! Alright, what do you need me to do?

PCJS:
Pick the players that we will cut in training camp. Here is our rosters, with salaries included. Here is a calculator as well. You have to trim $18-20 million off of the cap. Good luck.

Russ:
That's not my job...

PCJS:
You're right, Russ. It's their jobs. And after you sign your contract, we can't afford to pay them anymore. So you better get started.

Russ stares blankly at the paper.

Obviously this is asinine, but in theory it is spot on. This will be the result. Mebane, McDaniel, Baldwin, Kearse. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Better unload Bennett, too. Okung? See you later. Kam might be getting long in the tooth.

The point is the Wilson deal is going to hurt - badly. He wants the moon and it's going to turn our roster on its head.

I wonder if Earl and Sherm were asked the same thing?

Why would they be? They each signed reasonable extensions, according to their respective market values, and took their signing bonuses in the final years of the rookies deals, which allowed us to ease into their cap increases.

But they also had football agents, so there's that.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Disliked for taking a big contract like all the other top QB's?? Well, that's their issue, plenty of people actually understand that this is how it works. Disliking a guy for making good coin is just plain corny.

 

[Hawkfan77]

I wonder if Earl and Sherm were asked the same thing?

Why would they be? They each signed reasonable extensions, according to their respective market values, and took their signing bonuses in the final years of the rookies deals, which allowed us to ease into their cap increases.

But they also had football agents, so there's that.

So is Russell...

This is beyond ridiculous. Sherman becomes the highest paid CB and yet his contract is "reasonable" ET's APY is highest among safeties, yet his contract is "reasonable" Lunch has actually held the team hostage the past 2 seasons yet his demands are "reasonable". An excuse will be made for every single player on this team except for Russell and he's vilified the second he doesn't bend over backwards.

It's funny though, the reports have shifted from first saying that Russell is demanding to be the highest paid player in the league to him wanting as much guaranteed money as Cam Newton, how dare he! Doesn't matter because more than a few here were looking for an excuse to turn on Wilson no matter what

 

[LickMyNuts]

I wonder if Earl and Sherm were asked the same thing?

Why would they be? They each signed reasonable extensions, according to their respective market values, and took their signing bonuses in the final years of the rookies deals, which allowed us to ease into their cap increases.

But they also had football agents, so there's that.

So is Russell...

This is beyond ridiculous. Sherman becomes the highest paid CB and yet his contract is "reasonable" ET's APY is highest among safeties, yet his contract is "reasonable" Lunch has actually held the team hostage the past 2 seasons yet his demands are "reasonable". An excuse will be made for every single player on this team except for Russell and he's vilified the second he doesn't bend over backwards.

It's funny though, the reports have shifted from first saying that Russell is demanding to be the highest paid player in the league to him wanting as much guaranteed money as Cam Newton, how dare he! Doesn't matter because more than a few here were looking for an excuse to turn on Wilson no matter what

Most people here understand that RW needs to be paid a lot of money. However, it looks like RW is asking for more than even a lot of Seahawks homers think he is worth.

ET and RS are among the very best at their positions. I also think Lynch was reasonable in his demands.

I do not think RW deserves to be the highest paid QB.

Here is a ranking from MMQB which seems in line with RW ranking somewhere from 5-12 amongst QB's

12. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Possesses unique skills that defensive coordinators hate to scheme against. But also has limitations that an offensive coordinator has to scheme around. Having Marshawn Lynch and a legendary defense makes that easier.

Certainly this is a low ranking but it accounts for the run game and defense surrounding RW.

Perhaps the only way to see if RW is worth top QB money is for him to play for a bad team on a large contract.