Holmgren:‘Huge mistake’ if RW doesn’t sign ‘very fair' offer

[Seahawkfan80]

I kind of think the Seahawks should give Wilson what he is asking for, but with the stipulation that he make a list of the players for them to cut to be able to afford his salary. This whole "get yours" attitude is fine and all but let's face it, however much he gets isn't going to affect how much money the team spends on players. He's not getting more of Paul Allen's money. Likely, he's getting Mebane's money. Maybe Okung's money.

This was the best post so far about the Wilson contract issues.
Good job, Bro !!!

Hey, if they're going to make him do the GM's job they should pay him even more. I just watched Draft Day. That job sucks.

SC

Better yet....he has to go tell them others that they are gonna have to take one on the chin and give their money to him. I seem to recall a funny program on tv that had an issue like that. Think it was called Heaven can Wait.

 

[rideaducati]

I kind of think the Seahawks should give Wilson what he is asking for, but with the stipulation that he make a list of the players for them to cut to be able to afford his salary. This whole "get yours" attitude is fine and all but let's face it, however much he gets isn't going to affect how much money the team spends on players. He's not getting more of Paul Allen's money. Likely, he's getting Mebane's money. Maybe Okung's money.

This was the best post so far about the Wilson contract issues.
Good job, Bro !!!

Hey, if they're going to make him do the GM's job they should pay him even more. I just watched Draft Day. That job sucks.

SC

They based it on CLEVELAND...

 

[canfan]

Holmy is right. Wilson's agent is a buffoon and doing him a HUGE disservice. Any other decent NFL agent and Wilson would be signed already.

Wait....I thought God was Wilson's agent.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

how original

 

[hawk45]

In other words, Russell Wilson has two choices. . . . .he can either play out this year at $1.5 million. . . or he can hold out and get paid zero dollars and zero cents.

That's why there's no urgency for Russell and his agent to get a deal done now. The Hawks have made it clear that even if an extension is done, Russell has to wait until 2016 to get his money.

So why not wait another year or two if you're Russell? His leverage would only increase.........which means his guaranteed $$$$ also increases. This is especially true if his stats continue to rise, and we make another SB or two.

It's possible his leverage does not increase. In a situation where Luck signs for Aaron Rodgers money plus 1 dollar, where Lynch falls off production-wise forcing Russell to have to carry the team offensively and he struggles, where Russell is injured perhaps and misses multiple games. A situation where Lynch and the defense carry the team and he's not asked to do much, thus not allowing him to build a strong case for being able to do what a Rodgers can do when asked. A situation where Bevell's offseason shock treatment fails and other coaches figure out how he will use Graham better than he does and flat out dominate him in the chess match. Where Graham gets injured.

That long, long list is a tiny fraction of the entire list of things within the realm of possibility, and those legitimate risks increase in likelihood as each year passes without a long-term deal. By contrast, the scenarios where Russell's leverage increases is extremely limited. A "regular" offensive year where we win a ring (or at least don't get eliminated in the playoffs in a game like the first half of the NFCC where he singlehandedly was losing it for us). Or a year where his numbers take a huge leap, because in that case our win/loss isn't as important because he has a ring already, adding a carry-the-team-passing year to the resume completes it utterly.

Most of us believe Lynch will finish strong and with Graham on board Russ's passing numbers will improve or stay level at least, but so much has to go right for this happen. Only one of the myriad negative events has to happen to decrease his leverage, and with a QB who operates outside the pocket as much as he does, and with his OL, it's a concern.

His family might want to sit him down and show him the Clay Matthews hit in the NFCC a few times if he's walking away from a contract offer in the 20s. He can have insurance to prevent him from getting *nothing*, but he can't insure against his leverage going in the tank and potentially never seeing Aaron Rodgers level money offered again. As the better-version-of-Mike-Vick he is now, yes okay I can see someone out there throwing more money at him than what we're offering. If while he's waiting for that to materialize he tears up a knee and instantly has to be a maestro from the pocket, I do not believe teams will throw that kind of money at him. Unlike Luck,Rodgers, Big Ben, QBs that teams would be confident can still perform with a loss of some mobility.

In the NFL it's not a question so much of betting on yourself. It's betting on your defense, run game, line, and God to grant you health.

I also think that JS is in a corner regarding what he offers Wilson. After ALL of our defensive superstars, consensus number 1s at their position, signing for very reasonable number 1 money plus a penny, he can not offer Wilson substantially more than Rodgers money. Can not. Or they can forget about retaining any of their defensive superstars in the future. Honestly I'd be 100% fine if an Earl, Sherman, etc. held out or pulled some ish if JS sent the message that being team-oriented results in the bigger paydays going towards players with unreasonable contract demands. It's a jarring contrast that our historically great defensive players jumped at reasonable contracts and our undersized longshot QB with the too-perfect public persona - no more underpaid than Sherman was by the way - is the one to go Revis. I would have expected Cam Newton, Kaepernick, anyone to try to take this stand besides Wilson and that contrast is why the tide of public opinion is turning on him so quickly. It's the Arod factor.

Standard caveat here about this discussion all assuming there's truth to the offer in the 20s.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

45,,
" A situation where Bevell's offseason shock treatment fails and other coaches figure out how he will use Graham better than he does and flat out dominate him in the chess match. Where Graham gets injured."

:229031_cheers: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :ththsmileyjoke:

 

[Sgt. Largent]

In other words, Russell Wilson has two choices. . . . .he can either play out this year at $1.5 million. . . or he can hold out and get paid zero dollars and zero cents.

That's why there's no urgency for Russell and his agent to get a deal done now. The Hawks have made it clear that even if an extension is done, Russell has to wait until 2016 to get his money.

So why not wait another year or two if you're Russell? His leverage would only increase.........which means his guaranteed $$$$ also increases. This is especially true if his stats continue to rise, and we make another SB or two.

It's possible his leverage does not increase. In a situation where Luck signs for Aaron Rodgers money plus 1 dollar, where Lynch falls off production-wise forcing Russell to have to carry the team offensively and he struggles, where Russell is injured perhaps and misses multiple games. A situation where Lynch and the defense carry the team and he's not asked to do much, thus not allowing him to build a strong case for being able to do what a Rodgers can do when asked. A situation where Bevell's offseason shock treatment fails and other coaches figure out how he will use Graham better than he does and flat out dominate him in the chess match. Where Graham gets injured.

That long, long list is a tiny fraction of the entire list of things within the realm of possibility, and those legitimate risks increase in likelihood as each year passes without a long-term deal. By contrast, the scenarios where Russell's leverage increases is extremely limited. A "regular" offensive year where we win a ring (or at least don't get eliminated in the playoffs in a game like the first half of the NFCC where he singlehandedly was losing it for us). Or a year where his numbers take a huge leap, because in that case our win/loss isn't as important because he has a ring already, adding a carry-the-team-passing year to the resume completes it utterly.

Most of us believe Lynch will finish strong and with Graham on board Russ's passing numbers will improve or stay level at least, but so much has to go right for this happen. Only one of the myriad negative events has to happen to decrease his leverage, and with a QB who operates outside the pocket as much as he does, and with his OL, it's a concern..

These things are possible, but not likely.

If past performance predicts future results, then Russell will continue to perform the same, if not better than he has........we will again go deep into the playoffs and possibly win another SB.

Like Russell himself says, he unequivocally believes in himself. So yeah, he could get hurt or not have a great year. But that's not even in his realm of thinking, thus not accepting a deal he doesn't think is worthy.

 

[chris98251]

There are teams out there that see value in him, but many also see him as a piece of the offense and that Lynch is what makes Wilson work along with our defense. Then there is the type of offense teams run, many don't want a QB they have to special plan or design for, also you have the old guard mentality that he is too short and it's a gimmick situation.

Much like Flutie, all the guy did was produce but he was always doubted, Brees has a offense designed for his abilities.

Then you have the cap room available on teams, how many will pay 22-25 million a year for a QB they "THINK" may work in their system but know they have to trim a lot of players to make him fit. Even after two Super Bowl appearences you still see articles about other team representitives doubting him, something that most other QB's don't have after two appearences.

I think the amount of teams knocking down the door for a starter like him is far fewer then 1/4 of the league, of those very few have a offense that he will fit in or the money he wants available.

 

[SuperMan28]

Holmy is right. Wilson's agent is a buffoon and doing him a HUGE disservice. Any other decent NFL agent and Wilson would be signed already.

I just don't get how anyone can say this with any kind of certainty. None of us, including holmgren have any clue what Wilson's agent is demanding nor what the Hawks are actually offering

That's just it, what's "fair?"

Cam Newton or Joe Flacco money? Very, very, vague. I'm kind of surprised he's trying to break the bank when he plays in a run heavy offense. Clearly he's basing it off his historic number of W's and big games he's played in and done well. That is how QB's are ultimately judged but clearly the Seahawks are not seeing eye-to-eye with that or he'd already be signed to a massive contract.

I'm it will get done, though. Can't imagine letting SEA letting him test the market with teams like the Jets and Bills willing to spend stupid money on him.

 

[SeaChase]

Let Wilson walk. He's asking for way too much money. He's gun shy and misses far too many open targets. Can you imagine having a passing game to go along with the awesome D and run game? :stirthepot:

1. How much money is he asking?

2. Wilson has a better completion percentage his first three years starting than Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Phllip Rivers and just about any other QB you can imagine. The ONLY top QB who started better than Wilson is Rogers, and he was a three year veteran before he became a starter. Accuracy is the farthest thing from an issue with Wilson.

3. We won't have an eilte passing game until the blocking improves, the WR's get separation . . . AND THE COACHING STAFF CHANGES!!!!

The WRs get separation, there's 3 years of game film on that, plus You have to throw the WR open. It's the NFL, being wide open doesn't happen to often. Wilson holds the ball too long which causes sacks. You can't expect each linemen to hold there blocks for 7 or 8 seconds on every pass play. It's funny how the run blocking is pretty good (cause they don't have to hold a block all day) and it helps that Lynch is pretty good.

People always point out %'s. Does Wilson throw for 4000 plus yds and 30 plus TDs? No, but he passes 10 balls for 130 yards and we win games. That's why his %'s are good. The awesome team around him is what makes him the most winning QB in his first 3 years.

 

[hawk45]

These things are possible, but not likely.

If past performance predicts future results, then Russell will continue to perform the same, if not better than he has........we will again go deep into the playoffs and possibly win another SB.

Like Russell himself says, he unequivocally believes in himself. So yeah, he could get hurt or not have a great year. But that's not even in his realm of thinking, thus not accepting a deal he doesn't think is worthy.

I would be surprised if a majority of fans on this board agreed that the combined probabilities of Lynch falling off, the defense falling off, a big injury on the team, etc. didn't represent a significant risk. I would be surprised if you believed that, in truth.

History agrees with me as well, as we observe how many NFL teams are unable to make the playoffs after a Superbowl appearance. They fail to do this precisely because of the factors I mention above, factors you indicate are unlikely yet have afflicted the majority of SB teams. I do not believe that fits the definition of unlikely.

Also, the statement about past performance ignores the main thrust of my post, which is that Russell's performance is the only factor under his control. It doesn't actually address my point. Also, Russell's past performance has not yet provided any indication that our passing attack will survive any major injury or offensive issue. We lose linemen to injury, it cannot function. Bevell whacks off to pictures of Percy Harvin on the sidelines, we cannot function as a passing team. A team keeps Russell in the pocket while maintaining coverage integrity, we cannot function as a passing team. Those are not all of his fault, but those have all happened for quite long stretches where he has looked awful because he is judged on passing production.

Next, risk analysis need not involve events greater than 50% probability or nobody would purchase insurance of any kind. Further, he must also juxtapose the magnitude of his potential lost future wages against the known lost wages if he accepts a deal at 21 mil instead of whatever he is asking.

I do not believe Russell's self-stated belief in himself in any way renders it a given that when it comes to life-altering decisions he doesn't sit down and think about actual risks and probabilities with the cold eye of logic.

Edit: let me say that my last sentence is true, but that the obvious rebuttal is, Russell seems to be discounting these risks right this minute. Also, players have been known to do things out of ego or bad advice. So I shouldn't dismiss the idea of some factor outside of logic influencing Russ's decision. Belief in self, baseball agent, ego, desire to make up for past years of low money, and so on.

 

[canfan]

My feeling is that Russell is not going to budge - whatever the number he envisions is the only thing he will sign for. Maybe the only way this gets settled is if they use the non-exclusive tag on him next year. He wants to get to the market and this lets him see what the market (sort of) is while still retaining the right to match. I also think that offers will be less because of the restrictions ( 2 first rounders and right to match). He will either play on the non-exclusive tag which will be several millions less than the exclusive or he will sign a long term deal that will be less than the highest paid player level he seems to be looking for.

This is why I have trouble understanding the whole issue. If the Seahawks want to play hardball, they retain control or force RW to sign elsewhere at a level that likely isn't to ever make up for the money he is foregoing by not getting this done this year. I feel like I must be missing something, because to me it seems like the Seahawks hold all the cards here. The only thing I can think of is that next year they may franchise him and he could refuse to sign the tender or report, which would be his right because at that point he has no contract. The Seahawks would still own his rights but none of the penalties outlined in the CBA for holding out apply as he would not be under contract , so they can't force him to do anything.

 

[hawk45]

This is why I have trouble understanding the whole issue. If the Seahawks want to play hardball, they retain control or force RW to sign elsewhere at a level that likely isn't to ever make up for the money he is foregoing by not getting this done this year.

This point right here is a major concern I have. If, at this moment, Russ's contract demands are high out of desire to make up for past years of low pay, then there's potential for them to become even more extreme after having forsaken 20+ million this year. The game of "catch-up" becomes even more difficult.

If that's the way this goes it bodes ill for him signing here after the tags, barring introduction of a new factor.

However, the other way it could go is, after a year at risk or a down year or being non-exclusive-tagged and not being offered 30 million by another suitor, he comes back to the bargaining table after having received a market correction and acts accordingly. My sense is his agent will do everything in his power to prevent such a come-to-Jesus moment however, so Russ would have to defy his agent or get another.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

This is why I have trouble understanding the whole issue. If the Seahawks want to play hardball, they retain control or force RW to sign elsewhere at a level that likely isn't to ever make up for the money he is foregoing by not getting this done this year.

This point right here is a major concern I have. If, at this moment, Russ's contract demands are high out of desire to make up for past years of low pay, then there's potential for them to become even more extreme after having forsaken 20+ million this year. The game of "catch-up" becomes even more difficult.

If that's the way this goes it bodes ill for him signing here after the tags, barring introduction of a new factor.

However, the other way it could go is, after a year at risk or a down year or being non-exclusive-tagged and not being offered 30 million by another suitor, he comes back to the bargaining table after having received a market correction and acts accordingly. My sense is his agent will do everything in his power to prevent such a come-to-Jesus moment however, so Russ would have to defy his agent or get another.

The hawks have one ace in the hole too................Bevell. :stirthepot: :twisted:

 

[Narniaman]

This is why I have trouble understanding the whole issue. If the Seahawks want to play hardball, they retain control or force RW to sign elsewhere at a level that likely isn't to ever make up for the money he is foregoing by not getting this done this year.

This point right here is a major concern I have. If, at this moment, Russ's contract demands are high out of desire to make up for past years of low pay, then there's potential for them to become even more extreme after having forsaken 20+ million this year. The game of "catch-up" becomes even more difficult.

If that's the way this goes it bodes ill for him signing here after the tags, barring introduction of a new factor.

However, the other way it could go is, after a year at risk or a down year or being non-exclusive-tagged and not being offered 30 million by another suitor, he comes back to the bargaining table after having received a market correction and acts accordingly. My sense is his agent will do everything in his power to prevent such a come-to-Jesus moment however, so Russ would have to defy his agent or get another.

Uh, once again. . . .the Seahawks have said that there is no way in hell that Russell gets a thin dime more this year than what the final year of his rookie contract calls for, which is $1.5 million dollars.

If he signs a contract today. . . . his present contract is still in effect, and the new contract only covers "employment" after this year.

The Seahawk's FO knows that right now they have the best deal in the NFL with Russell playing for not even 10% of what equivalent quality quarterbacks are making. . . . and they have no intention at all of redoing the contract that gives them such a bargain.

So. . . .Russell Wilson is not "forsaking" $20 million dollars now by not signing a contract this year. . . . . .

 

[Tical21]

He's forsaking 1-2 million in interest on the portion of the signing bonus he would get this year plus risking the gap between any guarantees and his insurance amount, on the incredibly slim chance he would have a career-ending injury, which hasn't happened to a QB in decades.

 

[canfan]

This is why I have trouble understanding the whole issue. If the Seahawks want to play hardball, they retain control or force RW to sign elsewhere at a level that likely isn't to ever make up for the money he is foregoing by not getting this done this year.

This point right here is a major concern I have. If, at this moment, Russ's contract demands are high out of desire to make up for past years of low pay, then there's potential for them to become even more extreme after having forsaken 20+ million this year. The game of "catch-up" becomes even more difficult.

If that's the way this goes it bodes ill for him signing here after the tags, barring introduction of a new factor.

However, the other way it could go is, after a year at risk or a down year or being non-exclusive-tagged and not being offered 30 million by another suitor, he comes back to the bargaining table after having received a market correction and acts accordingly. My sense is his agent will do everything in his power to prevent such a come-to-Jesus moment however, so Russ would have to defy his agent or get another.

Uh, once again. . . .the Seahawks have said that there is no way in hell that Russell gets a thin dime more this year than what the final year of his rookie contract calls for, which is $1.5 million dollars.

If he signs a contract today. . . . his present contract is still in effect, and the new contract only covers "employment" after this year.

The Seahawk's FO knows that right now they have the best deal in the NFL with Russell playing for not even 10% of what equivalent quality quarterbacks are making. . . . and they have no intention at all of redoing the contract that gives them such a bargain.

So. . . .Russell Wilson is not "forsaking" $20 million dollars now by not signing a contract this year. . . . . .

It is correct that he would play for the same base salary (or likely even a lower one), but the signing bonus is likely to be close to $20 million. Like the previous poster mentioned, the "time on money" value in he form of interest/opportunity costs could run into the millions. In addition, there is a major difference in that if he gets seriously injured this year he gets nothing beyond his base salary and his insurance policy. Upon signing he is guaranteed millions (up to $54 million according to some reports) which sets him up for life. You are made of sterner stuff than I if you can look at that scenario and see no reason to wrap this up.

 

[hawk45]

He's forsaking 1-2 million in interest on the portion of the signing bonus he would get this year plus risking the gap between any guarantees and his insurance amount, on the incredibly slim chance he would have a career-ending injury, which hasn't happened to a QB in decades.

Tical, although a career ending injury is a possibility, you'll note I didn't mention that possibility. Instead, I raised the specter of an injury limiting his mobility. I direct you to Michael Vick and RGIII as very recent examples of such injuries to mobile quarterbacks, although Russell is certainly much more intelligent about avoiding collision.

You don't have to go to Vick or RGIII however to support this point; Aaron Rodgers sustained an injury that limited his mobility before the NFCC. And Rodgers uses his legs far less, albeit very effectively.

Rodgers has proven he can function at an elite level with diminished mobility. Russ has not, in fact our offense has, for long stretches, been DOA when Wilson isn't choosing to keep the ball regularly, as the late PE pointed out often and correctly.

Focusing on the career-ender to the exclusion of other, far more regular mobility-limiting injuries, is a curious and flawed decision.

I want to add that most NFL QBs experience a year where injuries or other factors derail their productivity. Again, Lynch being at the end of his career, the possibility of getting a nick, turf toe, anything that limits his mobility hurts Russ far more than other quarterbacks.

I agree with Sgt. Largent that NFL QBs likely lean towards believing it will not happen to them in a contract year. So I don't say my analysis means Russ will see things from my perspective. I just believe they would be well-served to remember the possibility if the difference is 1-2 million as they play on a championship caliber team.

He could very well gamble against injury or fall-off and come up aces, and I'd be thrilled with that scenario if it means a ring next year, as would we all, even if it does mean paying him money that could hamstring us as a consequence. After two rings, I'll be happy to watch Russ scamper around and make magic for the next decade.

 

[hawk45]

This is why I have trouble understanding the whole issue. If the Seahawks want to play hardball, they retain control or force RW to sign elsewhere at a level that likely isn't to ever make up for the money he is foregoing by not getting this done this year.

This point right here is a major concern I have. If, at this moment, Russ's contract demands are high out of desire to make up for past years of low pay, then there's potential for them to become even more extreme after having forsaken 20+ million this year. The game of "catch-up" becomes even more difficult.

If that's the way this goes it bodes ill for him signing here after the tags, barring introduction of a new factor.

However, the other way it could go is, after a year at risk or a down year or being non-exclusive-tagged and not being offered 30 million by another suitor, he comes back to the bargaining table after having received a market correction and acts accordingly. My sense is his agent will do everything in his power to prevent such a come-to-Jesus moment however, so Russ would have to defy his agent or get another.

Uh, once again. . . .the Seahawks have said that there is no way in hell that Russell gets a thin dime more this year than what the final year of his rookie contract calls for, which is $1.5 million dollars.

If he signs a contract today. . . . his present contract is still in effect, and the new contract only covers "employment" after this year.

The Seahawk's FO knows that right now they have the best deal in the NFL with Russell playing for not even 10% of what equivalent quality quarterbacks are making. . . . and they have no intention at all of redoing the contract that gives them such a bargain.

So. . . .Russell Wilson is not "forsaking" $20 million dollars now by not signing a contract this year. . . . . .

Sorry, you're 100% correct there. Russ doesn't forsake 20 million now. He forsakes the opportunity for that large an amount if his leverage decreases or with injury or poor performance, but you're quite right he plays for 1.5 regardless.

He does however forsake putting a large amount of signing bonus to work for him via investment or interest.

 

[ctrcat]

^ Absolutely. Brady (knee), Manning (neck), and Brees (shoulder) have been considered the top 3 for much of the last decade. They've all suffered season ending injuries and many have thought it was game/set/match for them at different stages. Roethlisburger and Newton have been mentioned constantly in this thread and have both had auto accidents. Troy Aikman has had a wildly successful football and post football career but who knows if his brain will fry on live television one day. The list is endless of QB injuries in every way imaginable. Not all "career-ending", but definitely enough to make player and team ask wtf they're doing.