Hershel Walker = Me3

[Rat]

I am not saying that Darnold is better than Aikman, but how do you know that by the end of his career Darnold will not be a first ballot hall of famer?

I'm guessing not many first ballot Hall of Famers played for five teams in their first eight seasons and had zero All-Pros. At 29 when next season starts, he's going to have to do something ridiculous, and for much longer than NFL QBs typically last. His stats are WAY off that trajectory.

 

[IndyHawk]

I'm guessing not many first ballot Hall of Famers played for five teams in their first eight seasons and had zero All-Pros. At 29 when next season starts, he's going to have to do something ridiculous, and for much longer than NFL QBs typically last. His stats are WAY off that trajectory.

Another SB or Two should seal the deal.

 

[LeveeBreak]

I'm guessing not many first ballot Hall of Famers played for five teams in their first eight seasons and had zero All-Pros. At 29 when next season starts, he's going to have to do something ridiculous, and for much longer than NFL QBs typically last. His stats are WAY off that trajectory.

If Kurt Warner could go from stocking grocery shelves to the Hall of Fame, Sam Darnold, having potentially a decade of football still ahead, can do it. Among active starters not named Mahomes, Allen, or Stafford (and excluding the already-locked Rodgers), Darnold’s trajectory is now stronger than most.
His resume has transformed into a legitimately impressive body of work:

• Super Bowl LX Champion: Cementing his legacy with a ring.
• Elite Winner: The second QB ever with back-to-back 14-win seasons, and the first to achieve it with two different franchises.
• Clutch Performer: Out-dueling Matthew Stafford in an all-time great NFC Championship.
• Narrative Shift: His "error-prone" reputation was buried by a flawless, zero-interception 2025 postseason, proving he can play elite, "clutch" football under the highest pressure.

While he still needs several more high-level seasons to build the statistical volume required for Canton, he has the raw talent, the right supporting cast, and the mental toughness to make it happen.

 

[Rat]

If Kurt Warner could go from stocking grocery shelves to the Hall of Fame, Sam Darnold, having potentially a decade of football still ahead, can do it. Among active starters not named Mahomes, Allen, or Stafford (and excluding the already-locked Rodgers), Darnold’s trajectory is now stronger than most.
His resume has transformed into a legitimately impressive body of work:

• Super Bowl LX Champion: Cementing his legacy with a ring.
• Elite Winner: The second QB ever with back-to-back 14-win seasons, and the first to achieve it with two different franchises.
• Clutch Performer: Out-dueling Matthew Stafford in an all-time great NFC Championship.
• Narrative Shift: His "error-prone" reputation was buried by a flawless, zero-interception 2025 postseason, proving he can play elite, "clutch" football under the highest pressure.

While he still needs several more high-level seasons to build the statistical volume required for Canton, he has the raw talent, the right supporting cast, and the mental toughness to make it happen.

Warner is a pretty ridiculous outlier, and thinking Darnold could play high-end football until he's in his late 30s, would make him one too. I think a few recent guys have made people think that's more common than it is. Yeah, Stafford was great last season, but after him, you have to go all the way down to Aaron Rodgers at 14 to get to the next QB over the age of 32 on the QB rating list. Warner hadn't played nearly as much as Darnold has when he hit his age 29 season, and Darnold's counting stats are going to require a LOT to get into first-ballot HOF territory. He really only has two good seasons and the latter he still only threw 25 TDs, which was surpassed by eight QBs last year alone.

Even still, Warner was not first-ballot. He went on his third, and this was before HOF voting tightened way up.

It'd be great for us if it happened, but acting like it has anything resembling a realistic chance of happening is a bit delusional.

 

[BASF]

Warner is a pretty ridiculous outlier, and thinking Darnold could play high-end football until he's in his late 30s, would make him one too. I think a few recent guys have made people think that's more common than it is. Yeah, Stafford was great last season, but after him, you have to go all the way down to Aaron Rodgers at 14 to get to the next QB over the age of 32 on the QB rating list. Warner hadn't played nearly as much as Darnold has when he hit his age 29 season, and Darnold's counting stats are going to require a LOT to get into first-ballot HOF territory. He really only has two good seasons and the latter he still only threw 25 TDs, which was surpassed by eight QBs last year alone.

Even still, Warner was not first-ballot. He went on his third, and this was before HOF voting tightened way up.

It'd be great for us if it happened, but acting like it has anything resembling a realistic chance of happening is a bit delusional.

You are absolutely correct. We'll just have to win three of the next four Super Bowls with Darnold at the helm and he will be in like Flynn.

 

[LeveeBreak]

Warner is a pretty ridiculous outlier, and thinking Darnold could play high-end football until he's in his late 30s, would make him one too. I think a few recent guys have made people think that's more common than it is. Yeah, Stafford was great last season, but after him, you have to go all the way down to Aaron Rodgers at 14 to get to the next QB over the age of 32 on the QB rating list. Warner hadn't played nearly as much as Darnold has when he hit his age 29 season, and Darnold's counting stats are going to require a LOT to get into first-ballot HOF territory. He really only has two good seasons and the latter he still only threw 25 TDs, which was surpassed by eight QBs last year alone.

Even still, Warner was not first-ballot. He went on his third, and this was before HOF voting tightened way up.

It'd be great for us if it happened, but acting like it has anything resembling a realistic chance of happening is a bit delusional.

Agree to disagree. IMO, Darnolds trajectory did a near 180 by the end of 2025. The narrative is now persistence, hard work, attitude, and grit. Teams not properly developing QB’s is a bigger storyline, which supports him further. Those are easy to get behind. He wins another SB, his odds crest 50% by a large degree.

 

[rjdriver]

I am not saying that Darnold is better than Aikman, but how do you know that by the end of his career Darnold will not be a first ballot hall of famer?

Really?

I think @Rat dove into the details , but my answer would be becasue I’ve watched football for about 50 years.

There are 11 first ballot HOF QB’s in the modern era. Names like Montana, Elway, Marino, and Manning amongst others. Every single one (of the 11) had the makings of a superstar within a few years of entering the league with the exception of Steve Young who patiently backed up Montana.

I loved what Sam did for us and am confident what he will do for us. The NFCCG against the Rams was one for the books. That said, the second half of the season we switched to a run first approach becasue Sam was not playing particularly well since his first Rams game debacle. He also didn’t play particularly well in the Super Bowl until the defense was able to break the game open.

I love your optimism and hope to heck you are right, but modern day 1st Ballot QB’s are on an another level. A level Darnold is almost certain never to reach.

 

[Rat]

Agree to disagree. IMO, Darnolds trajectory did a near 180 by the end of 2025. The narrative is now persistence, hard work, attitude, and grit. Teams not properly developing QB’s is a bigger storyline, which supports him further. Those are easy to get behind. He wins another SB, his odds crest 50% by a large degree.

Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett have two and havnt even made the Hall let alone first ballot. With voting changes making the Hall even more exclusive, "grit and determination" aren't enough to cover up for no All Pros and being way behind in volume stats, and needing to catch up while playing on a run-heavy team that emphasizes ball control. I think you're way underestimating what he'd need to do to be first ballot. You brought up Warner, and even he needed to wait, and he was a league MVP.

 

[ccla]

Really?

I think @Rat dove into the details , but my answer would be becasue I’ve watched football for about 50 years.

There are 11 first ballot HOF QB’s in the modern era. Names like Montana, Elway, Marino, and Manning amongst others. Every single one (of the 11) had the makings of a superstar within a few years of entering the league with the exception of Steve Young who patiently backed up Montana.

I loved what Sam did for us and am confident what he will do for us. The NFCCG against the Rams was one for the books. That said, the second half of the season we switched to a run first approach becasue Sam was not playing particularly well since his first Rams game debacle. He also didn’t play particularly well in the Super Bowl until the defense was able to break the game open.

I love your optimism and hope to heck you are right, but modern day 1st Ballot QB’s are on an another level. A level Darnold is almost certain never to reach.

We’ll see won’t we? But until he is not, I chose to believe he will be. It don’t cost me anything!!

 

[ccla]

I'm guessing not many first ballot Hall of Famers played for five teams in their first eight seasons and had zero All-Pros. At 29 when next season starts, he's going to have to do something ridiculous, and for much longer than NFL QBs typically last. His stats are WAY off that trajectory.

See my other response.