Gambling on a QB this draft

[toffee]

Lock IS our 2022, 'less overall skill' selection. No need for more than one qb on your roster to compete for that honor.

Got to wonder if Lock can time travel to this year's draft, how would he be ranked?

 

[chris98251]

Well Front offices and coaches that have been know as QB gurus can spot them, Holmgren and Wolf, Walsh, Coryell etc, John has been on record as liking many of the successful ones currently, forcing something rarely works, you have to like a guy and hope he drops or trade for him etc. Teams above mentioned force things and reach and their staffs can't develop them.

 

[TwilightError]

You have to decide what the pathway to success is:

1 - Draft a top QB.

If you are drafting a QB, the #s seem to suggest you need to have a top 5 if not top 1 overall pick. More concerning is that even then, you probably have a 1 in 3 chance of that panning out. Hebert was 6th overall so take from that what you will.

2 - Get lucky with a QB in the draft

If this is the process, it can work but the #s are stacked against you. The only way to make it work is to pick the best potential QB EVERY draft that is not a top 1st round option. Most won't pan out but some you will be able to trade later. To prevent this being the sink that Largent alludes to, you have to be willing to give a very short leash - give the prospect 2 years (but continue to draft QBs while evaluating). Most top tier QBs at least flash their potential when given a chance, few require 3-4 years to turn into something...so waiting 4 years is probably not needed.

3 - Build a strong team w/out a QB and then look to attract a FA star QB

It works but it gives you smaller windows. And you need an exceptional GM or years of being terrible (and so regular talent upgrades with the higher picks) to build a roster like that. You more likely end up like the Colts with a stacked roster and paying dearly for someone like Ryan, that probably won't move the needle. You have to a roster in place at a time elite QBs are looking to leave their teams. So there is a timing issue too.

But you notice how every pathway to success involves somehow getting a great QB? That is the problem. You can do all of the above and still never land one. We got lucky with Wilson. Ask the Jags and Bears about how hard it can be, ask the Vikings, Dolphins, and WFTs.

I agree on a lot of this. But about the point 1, is that really the case?

Lets leave 2021 out as it's too early to judge, but if we look at years 2017-2020. The top 5 picks have been: Trubisky, (1) Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Murray (1), Burrow (1), Tagovailoa (5). The mid first round 6-20 range picks has been: Mahomes (10), Watson (12), Josh Allen (7), Josh Rosen (10), Daniel Jones (6), Haskins (15), Herbert (6). The late first round 21-32: Lamar Jackson (32), Jordan Love (26).

I bolded the ones that I think are good picks. This is subjective, obviously. This far to me it seems that top 5 hit rate is 2/6. Mid 1st is 4/7. Late 1st hit rate is 1/2.

So, my take is that actually the best time to take a Quarterback is 6-12, right around where the Seahawks sit now in the first round. Obviously that means nothing for this years draft as these are totally different players and we dont know how they will pan out. However, I trust in Schneiders ability to recognize a franchise QB out of College and his knowledge on where in the draft to pick that guy. Typically those guys that are drafted after the top 5 require more time to develop in the league, so if the need is for a guy to start right away, I agree that a top 5 pick is probably needed and this year there might still not be a guy like that available.

I'm really looking forward to seeing if Schneider likes one of these dudes enough to make a pick. Be it in the 9th pick or later. Willis, Corral, Ridder, Strong. Whoever it is, If Schneider picks him, he has potential. Schneider has reportedly liked Mahomes and Allen and he picked Wilson so he clearly can see something. Also I'm fine with skipping this year for QB:s if the right guy isn't there. It might be better to have that "Tarvaris Jackson" -year again to distance the next dude from Wilson. Nobody compared Wilson to Hasselbeck after a year of Tarvaris... But if someone is picked now, he surely will be compared to Wilson. Next year is another story.

 

[TwistedHusky]

That is the thin thread of hope I am clinging to as well.

What would help is to know the QBs JS was enamored with that didn't turn great. I know he includes some winners in there. What is the ratio of winners to losers so we know we have a shot?

The big question is, do you have a good chance of getting a top tier QB with a mid-1st pick? And the answer looks to be no. Look at your examples. Herbert came in 2020 and that was a good QB collection.

Here is the list:

DraftHistory.com

www.drafthistory.com

It looks like roughly 10 QBs are drafted per year but the good QBs tend to come in groups that only appear once every 3 years or so. Even in THOSE groups though, you end up looking at #s like 2 in 5 panning out with just the 1st round picks. Occasionally high risk high upside guys get drafted in later part of the 1st but that is the exception not the rule.

(It would also be interesting to contrast the perceived great QB classes vs how they panned out. Were predraft high ranked QB classes the better classes in hindsight?)

The numbers are not great. And there are 32 other teams with their hand in the bowl trying to pull out the winning #s. It isn't even close to just getting a midrange 1st and you can reload.

It is crap shoot. But without a great QB you have little chance so you have no choice but to roll the die.

 

[Hawknight]

I say pass this year on drafting a QB. Building your team up for a better QB class in next years draft. Take the gamble on Lock, people are quick to judge, the dude did good his first season and then went through some coaching changes along with a pandemic year, which would make it difficult for any QB starting out. I'm reserving judgement on Lock, some people have already decided his fate, but give the man a shot. If it doesn't work out, we roll with drafting a QB next year, perhaps get another FA QB to get us through next season. Regardless, we are nowhere close to playoff contention.

 

[James in PA]

We traded for Lock who is young and has shown flashes. And like it or not, after the dust settles, Baker Mayfield will likely end up here. Let those 2 battle it out and see if we have anything. I wouldn't use a 1st or even one of our 2nd's on a QB. Too many other holes to fill.

 

[sutz]

We traded for Lock who is young and has shown flashes. And like it or not, after the dust settles, Baker Mayfield will likely end up here. Let those 2 battle it out and see if we have anything. I wouldn't use a 1st or even one of our 2nd's on a QB. Too many other holes to fill.

I disagree about Mayfield. IMO cost is too high, benefit doesn't seem that high IMO. I mostly agree with your last statement. I'm willing to fly a year with Lock and look forward to next year. Now if somebody shows up on the radar on Round 3+, taking a flyer there would be fine.

 

[James in PA]

I disagree about Mayfield. IMO cost is too high, benefit doesn't seem that high IMO. I mostly agree with your last statement. I'm willing to fly a year with Lock and look forward to next year. Now if somebody shows up on the radar on Round 3+, taking a flyer there would be fine.

I'm thinking Cleveland will eventually get desperate enough to eat some of his salary and trade him to us for a low pick.

 

[TwilightError]

That is the thin thread of hope I am clinging to as well.

What would help is to know the QBs JS was enamored with that didn't turn great. I know he includes some winners in there. What is the ratio of winners to losers so we know we have a shot?

The big question is, do you have a good chance of getting a top tier QB with a mid-1st pick? And the answer looks to be no. Look at your examples. Herbert came in 2020 and that was a good QB collection.

Here is the list:

DraftHistory.com

www.drafthistory.com

It looks like roughly 10 QBs are drafted per year but the good QBs tend to come in groups that only appear once every 3 years or so. Even in THOSE groups though, you end up looking at #s like 2 in 5 panning out with just the 1st round picks. Occasionally high risk high upside guys get drafted in later part of the 1st but that is the exception not the rule.

(It would also be interesting to contrast the perceived great QB classes vs how they panned out. Were predraft high ranked QB classes the better classes in hindsight?)

The numbers are not great. And there are 32 other teams with their hand in the bowl trying to pull out the winning #s. It isn't even close to just getting a midrange 1st and you can reload.

It is crap shoot. But without a great QB you have little chance so you have no choice but to roll the die.

The bolded part. To me the answer seems to be Yes. Between 2017 and 2020 the hit rate in mid-round has been higher than at top five.

I dont mean that it will automatically be the case this year but in a few years retrospect, the chances for a hit have been good.

“Mahomes (10), Watson (12), Josh Allen (7), Josh Rosen (10), Daniel Jones (6), Haskins (15), Herbert (6)”

4/7 are good picks, that is my subjective take.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Except that isn't all the picks in the first round.

You gave a 3-year stretch, that deviates from most of the other #s we see. And for the most part that seems the result of there being 2 drafts in 2 years (2018 and 2020) that had a good collection of QBs.

Normally those seem to occur every 3 years, sometimes 4.

So is that the outlier or the new normal?


If you look in the past 10 years, you will find that in the middle of the 1st, you have a much greater chance of getting a loser than a winner. So we have to hope that 2018+ represents change then.

 

[CalgaryFan05]

You're right, but a whiff at QB can set your franchise back 5-7 years, while a whiff at another less important position is only a year roadbump.

We haven't had a top 10 pick since Okung, so sorry I'm not OK with reaching on a QB in this year's draft.

If Pete and John want a project QB? Plenty of them will be available in later rounds. We desperately need this pick to work out, and work out well.

Honestly - I would MUCH rather wait a year than whiff on this.

Lock for the year. Figure it out over the course of the year. I don't know all the draft 'magic' that happens if you essentially want to 'defer' your pick to the next year. I'm guessing you just sell it. Failing that, any type of bridge in a Newton or a Kaep. Short term prove it contract shit that gives you options for next year.

Anyhow - I don't wanna wiff. I don't want a Raiders/Carr situation. Use Lock or another intermediate find. Wait the year. Plan and execute properly. Oh, yea, since it's my thread of the day: KEEP THE RECEIVERS!.

 

[jammerhawk]

Reaching for a QB is never a formula for success as Cleveland's and Cincie's record of futility will prove.

I frankly hope the team doesn't reach for player early and gets real value from the # 9 OA pick and from #s 40 & 41.

Perhaps at 40 or 41 it'd be worth taking a shot but even then are any of these guys actually that good?

Pn'J have a lot riding on making something significant happen with the value they got trading RW, if they screw it up they'll be remembered mostly for being the bozos who traded away RW.

 

[Fade]

Reaching for a QB is never a formula for success as Cleveland's and Cincie's record of futility will prove.

I frankly hope the team doesn't reach for player early and gets real value from the # 9 OA pick and from #s 40 & 41.

Perhaps at 40 or 41 it'd be worth taking a shot but even then are any of these guys actually that good?

Pn'J have a lot riding on making something significant happen with the value they got trading RW, if they screw it up they'll be remembered mostly for being the bozos who traded away RW.

Yep. Reaching is bad. Take the best players you can to buildup the core of the roster. Start Drew Lock, take your lumps, and see where you are next off-season.

A flyer in the 3rd round or later is okay. But I would like the 1st and 2nd round picks to go to real building block pieces, particularly in the trenches.

If they pick a QB early, they are saying this is the guy.

Pete talked about in the long, long ago (2012) after they just took Wilson during his rookie season. That it was his philosophy to build up the team first, and then go get the QB.

Referencing teams that take QBs top 10, a lot of them struggle because the team around them isn't very good.

 

[Rat]

I think this QB class has become very underrated. There might not be a Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence, and I don't know that I'd take any of them at 9, but I think Howell, Corral, and Pickett (in that order) are all legitimate first-round talents. I'd be thrilled to trade back into the first round and take one of them. Then you have Willis, who is an athletic freak. Ridder and Carson Strong have some intriguing tools, and I think Bailey Zappe is going to be a stone-cold steal for someone.

I think Pete and John have one of those guys in mind. I just don't believe that the plan for next season is Drew Lock battling for the starting job with some JAG like Geno Smith. People keep mentioning next year's class, but four wins probably takes us out of the running for Young or Stroud. I don't see this team being THAT bad.

 

[Rat]

Pete talked about in the long, long ago (2012) after they just took Wilson during his rookie season. That it was his philosophy to build up the team first, and then go get the QB.

They did go after a QB early, Charlie Whitehurst just didn't validate their confidence. And later on they signed a much better QB option in Matt Flynn than what they're doing now with Drew Lock. I really don't think the plan is to depend on Lock. There's someone they really like in the draft.

 

[TwilightError]

Except that isn't all the picks in the first round.

You gave a 3-year stretch, that deviates from most of the other #s we see. And for the most part that seems the result of there being 2 drafts in 2 years (2018 and 2020) that had a good collection of QBs.

Normally those seem to occur every 3 years, sometimes 4.

So is that the outlier or the new normal?


If you look in the past 10 years, you will find that in the middle of the 1st, you have a much greater chance of getting a loser than a winner. So we have to hope that 2018+ represents change then.

That might be true. The reason I only looked at 2018+ period is that I have read some reports which claim that the colleges now produce more NFL ready QB:s than they used to. So recent years seem like the most valid comparison point. But that is just a take based on something, not hard facts.

As most fans, I don’t have the ability to evaluate college QB:s. So I trust Schneider in this. I try to do my research and like some (Willis, Ridder, Corral) and dislike some (Pickett) but at the end of the day, I just hope they make the best possible pick with better evaluation skills than mine. I do agree with the notion that this team is not “a QB away” from being a contender, so they don’t need to force the decision this year. It’s likely better to have a good team where to bring the young QB in. So I would prioritize O- and D-linemen.

Also what is common with the success of the mentioned recent mid- to late 1st round QB:s is that most have had time to learn without having to start first year. That should be the case with anyone the Hawks possibly pick as they have Lock and the team is not in win now mode.

It really would be interesting to know who Schneider has liked besides Allen and Mahomes. I remember hearing Dalton in this context but Hawks passed on him in the first round. So maybe Schneider liked him but had a lower round grade on him? There probably are more names but we likely will not hear them.

 

[TwilightError]

I don’t think that picking the wrong QB sets the team back that much. Especially if it’s not a top ten pick. Unless you give a lot of draft capital to climb up for the wrong guy. Cardinals took Rosen and fixed their mistake the very next year with Murray. Fail fast ideology. I do think that missing out on a star QB is worse, if you had the chance to get him. Then you are left guessing and lose credibility.

The problem of course is recognizing which one has the star potential.. It’s easy in hindsight. And some teams can coach guys up like Packers of the time did with Rodgers, some can’t like the Packers of this time with Love. Or maybe Love just did not have the potential? Who knows.

 

[jammerhawk]

Yep. Reaching is bad. Take the best players you can to buildup the core of the roster. Start Drew Lock, take your lumps, and see where you are next off-season.

A flyer in the 3rd round or later is okay. But I would like the 1st and 2nd round picks to go to real building block pieces, particularly in the trenches.

If they pick a QB early, they are saying this is the guy.

Pete talked about in the long, long ago (2012) after they just took Wilson during his rookie season. That it was his philosophy to build up the team first, and then go get the QB.

Referencing teams that take QBs top 10, a lot of them struggle because the team around them isn't very good.

Completely agree, think it would be a huge mistake for the team to draft a QB this draft except maybe very late. However best next year after rebuilding the D which has seriously fallen behind. There are just too many needs that need to be addressed first, and taking a QB just b/c of outside perceived need is foolish, when there are so many things to be done to set the table for a young QB to learn to eat. Meanwhile we make do with Lock or whomever wins out in camp.

Maybe, in a purely hopeful line of thought, it may turn out out Lock that Lock is more less than awful or even potentially capable. Perhaps that is step too far but he really could be better than he has shown so far asDenver has for sure been a death zone for QBs not named Manning or Elway.

I want to see a rejuvenated young hungry and nuanced different D the positive benefit reaped from the RW trade. Then a build around the few good pieces left to build on here.

It’s possible but could easily be screwed up by arrogance and a need for more instant gratification. It is after all Pete who despite the window dressing of change may revert to form. That said, he knows how to win or as some think used to.

These guys have done it before and may just possibly do it again. Perhaps I’m optimistic, but that is my nature.

 

[Boohman14]

Drafting a QB is a crap shoot. I mean we got RW in the third round and didn't likely see him as a superstar in the making. Brady was what? A 5th or 7th round selection?
My hope is that we take a dynamic player with our first pick. I sure would love an edge rusher or shutdown corner. Gardner is so enticing a prospect in this defense with our safetys.

 

[Rat]

Drafting a QB is a crap shoot. I mean we got RW in the third round and didn't likely see him as a superstar in the making. Brady was what? A 5th or 7th round selection?
My hope is that we take a dynamic player with our first pick. I sure would love an edge rusher or shutdown corner. Gardner is so enticing a prospect in this defense with our safetys.

And those two are in the vast minority. Many edge rushers and shutdown corners have been drafted later too. Remember Richard Sherman?