Gambling on a QB this draft

[Sgt. Largent]

Why is that though, how is Sauce Gardner busting at #9 better than Willis busting at #9? Franchise are only locked into mistakes if they do so themselves; we saw Arizona move on from Josh Rosen after a single season. It seems to me that the actual mistake you are concerned about is not drafting a QB often enough.

In an ideal world we'd trade down a couple of times and mitigate the risk at any position with more selections.

I just explained it.

If you commit to a rookie QB for 4-5 years and they stink, then you just set your franchise back 5-7 years.

If you use your 1st rounder on another position, that player is much easier replaced then the most important position on the team.

Look no further than every perennially bad franchise that continues to reach at QB every 3-4 years. Jags, Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Bears.

All traded up and/or reached at QB over the past decade over and over.

You're not taking into account the importance of the position. No more important position in all of sports than the QB in football. Of course nothing's a guarantee, but if you have a top 10 pick? You better damn well be 100% committed that this is your guy, and not a reach that you're only 50-75% committed to his skill set and makeup.

 

[JayhawkMike]

General Consensus: There is not a QB in the draft worth the 9th pick in the draft with the betters ones being late first or second round grades.

Pete Carroll: Screw them all I am smarter then them. That 3rd round graded QB looks great at #16 after a trade down.

I do like the kid from Liberty at a late late 1st round grade.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

So you know this first hand? You know more than Pete and John or actual NFL scouts?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

So you know this first hand? You know more than Pete and John or actual NFL scouts?

Well that's certainly been the pat answer Pete and John give us after they draft a player that wasn't suppose to go until later rounds with a higher pick.

Carpenter
McDowell
Collier
Pocic
Richardson
Ifedi
Penny

All drafted higher than projected cause they were "our kind of guy."

If this happens over the next two years? Brace yourself, cause these guys are gonna be fired and we'll be a 3-4 win team.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Corral would be a great pickup if he's available in the 2nd round. I don't like Willis as much as the media hype

 

[Fade]

Step 1: Build the roster up. (This will be very challenging and may take a while.)

Step 2: Trade for a quality veteran QB.

In the meantime there is nothing wrong with taking flyers in the middle rounds hoping you hit on a guy. Sam Howell this year, begrudgingly. Not a good class.

 

[Spin Doctor]

I'd be okay with taking a QB in the second round, that is where I think the value is in this class. I'm a fan of Carson Strong in particular. Yes, he plays in the air raid system but he's got a few things about him I really like. Since he had an issue with his knee, I think we might be able to get him in the second, or maybe even third round. He's immobile but his pocket presence is fantastic and he excels under pressure.

Corral I could take him or leave him in the second. Watched footage of every game he played all year and I'm not sure how his skill set will translate to the NFL -- though he has a few traits that are elite even by NFL standards. His short to intermediate accuracy/anticipation and his release speed are impressive even in the NFL. His downsides are he plays in a funky system that has little in common with an NFL system. It's going to be a steep learning curve for him to pick up any NFL offense coming from Ole' Miss.

He's got a massively underrated arm, the dude often time is knocked for his arm by some people but I've seen him launch the ball from awkward positions and sling that ball with little hangtime down the field 50+ yards with a lot of room to spare. He just knows how to put touch on the ball -- though despite him having an arm his deep passes are extremely inaccurate. Despite this it seems the Seahawk have been hanging around Corral. Corral's coach at Ole Miss also has Pete connections from back at his USC, as he was his OC on the Trojans. There was a lot to like when I watched him, but also a lot of question marks.

Desmond Ridder, don't see the hype to be honest. Not too impressed, his game is a hot mess -- his accuracy is also extremely bad. His arm strength also is overstated, it's not great. I watched 7 of his games and just was left scratching my head. I can see where people might see potential, but within all of that potential is a massive project with an upside that doesn't look all that tantalizing.

The bottom line is, most of these QB's have huge question marks. Most of them either come from flukey systems, or have glaring flaws in their game. I think only one QB is ready to take snaps from day one in this class and that is Kenny Pickett, but even he has a lot that he needs to clean up. I think with a Strong camp, Strong could win a job -- but once again, he's coming from a system that doesn't translate to the NFL well. There have been good QB's to come out of the air raid though, such as Mahomes.

 

[keasley45]

If the QB crop isn't as solid this year, and our bright and shiny new pick #9 won't garner as high a value (reaching) for a QB, what draft pick would you say is worth giving up for a QB? Many of you will no doubt say "none this year." But some of you might jump on it with Ridder, Corral, or others. But if you take a QB who isn't stellar, why sacrifice that pick that could be used on a position of need in a deep draft at other positions?

As a reminder, here are the picks>>>

• Round one, number 9 overall (in trade from Broncos)
  Round two, number 40 overall (in trade from Broncos)
  Round two, number 41 overall
  Round three, number 72 overall
  Round four, number 107 overall
  Round five, pick 151 overall
  Round five, pick 152 overall (in trade from Broncos)
  Round seven, pick 227 overall

If the need at QB is to replace Russ--which will be difficult in many ways--there probably isn't even a prospect worth taking. But if the someone with less overall skill would do, what pick would you be willing to give up, gambling on such a QB?

Would you give pick 40 or 41?

Pick 72?

After that, you're not likely even getting someone who would start over Lock.

Lock IS our 2022, 'less overall skill' selection. No need for more than one qb on your roster to compete for that honor.

 

[Hawknight]

This is the worst QB draft in a decade, and next year's is suppose to be one of the best in a decade.

We're in a rebuild, so no need to waste picks on a reach QB. Build up the rest of the roster with your 2022 picks and cap space, and go hard after a young QB next year.

So gambling? No. That's what bad organizations do who are desperate for a QB year after year, and they stink year after year.

Be smart, or else you just wasted your draft capital.

I totally agree. If you don't plug the holes in what's ailing your team, your next QB whomever that may be will struggle, regardless of who is playing under center. Build your team, exercise patience and due diligence and find that QB, if not Lock, then during next years draft when a better class of QBs await.

 

[sutz]

IIRC, we have two 2's this draft. If they used one of them on a 'develomental' guy I wouldn't hate the idea.

But yeah, might want to wait til 3 or so for that and build elsewhere, trusting in Lock to carry us through 2022.

 

[toffee]

This is the worst QB draft in a decade, and next year's is suppose to be one of the best in a decade.

We're in a rebuild, so no need to waste picks on a reach QB. Build up the rest of the roster with your 2022 picks and cap space, and go hard after a young QB next year.

So gambling? No. That's what bad organizations do who are desperate for a QB year after year, and they stink year after year.

Be smart, or else you just wasted your draft capital.

I rather rock with Lock and company this season, use the picks to build the team. We can draft or trade after a season of look see with Lock

 

[Ad Hawk]

I have my doubts about DLock being any kind of long-term solution at QB.

If this 2022's QBs aren't fairly sure things, then it's hard to justify using any pick in what I've heard over and over is a deep draft at several important positions. I'd rather use 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to strengthen weak areas and provide some depth at others.

I'm with you all who say just roll ("rock" on, toffee) with Lock this year and level up on QB later.

 

[Fade]

Drew Lock is a coach killer. Start him.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Before you can determine the move forward you need to ask 2 questions:

In the past 5 years, how many QBs that are top tier, needed a few years before they start to flash/blossom?

How many top tier QBs can be found in the lower rounds? What % of top tier QB in the past 10 years were not top half of the 1st round picks?

 

[Ad Hawk]

Drew Lock is a coach killer. Start him.

Too bad there isn't a facepalm emoji...

 

[WarHawks]

Before you can determine the move forward you need to ask 2 questions:

In the past 5 years, how many QBs that are top tier, needed a few years before they start to flash/blossom?

How many top tier QBs can be found in the lower rounds? What % of top tier QB in the past 10 years were not top half of the 1st round picks?

Great questions. I just looked it up, and not a single qb taken in the first round from 2009-16 (22 total qb's total), is still with their original team. Not a single one. Wow. Of the franchise qb's playing now however, five stand out as top tier first rounders, although that is admittedly subjective. Allen, Burrow, Mahomes, Murray, and Stafford. Of those, Stafford was picked in 2009. The Hawks have only picked two qb's in the first round in their history (Mirer and McGuire). Lets hope this year and next isn't 2009-16 redux.

 

[toffee]

Drew Lock is a coach killer. Start him.

Lock didn't protect the ball, lots of turnovers. I think PeteBall may help him some though, less pass attempts, and emphasis on protecting the ball over anything else.

We shall see, I don't think Lock is the long term solution, but we shall see.

 

[TwilightError]

I’m fine with taking a flier on a QB in this draft as long as it’s not done on the ninth pick. A left tackle should be taken there. A solid LT is what any young QB will need so it’s the best possible value for that high pick. Even if the QB decision is left for a later year. It’s also a position that is difficult to address in free agency.

If they use their two seconds to climb a bit for a QB, that’s fine and it would make next season a lot more exciting. I especially like Corral as a prospect.

Many mocks have Cross and Corral as the two first Seahawks picks. I would absolutely love that. But the mocks never get Schneider right. Never. So I expect there to be some head scratching decisions on positions that don’t seem to be needs at all and for players that are projected way lower.. it’s the Seahawks way.

 

[toffee]

Step 1: Build the roster up. (This will be very challenging and may take a while.)

Step 2: Trade for a quality veteran QB.

In the meantime there is nothing wrong with taking flyers in the middle rounds hoping you hit on a guy. Sam Howell this year, begrudgingly. Not a good class.

Nailed it!

 

[TwistedHusky]

You have to decide what the pathway to success is:

1 - Draft a top QB.

If you are drafting a QB, the #s seem to suggest you need to have a top 5 if not top 1 overall pick. More concerning is that even then, you probably have a 1 in 3 chance of that panning out. Hebert was 6th overall so take from that what you will.

2 - Get lucky with a QB in the draft

If this is the process, it can work but the #s are stacked against you. The only way to make it work is to pick the best potential QB EVERY draft that is not a top 1st round option. Most won't pan out but some you will be able to trade later. To prevent this being the sink that Largent alludes to, you have to be willing to give a very short leash - give the prospect 2 years (but continue to draft QBs while evaluating). Most top tier QBs at least flash their potential when given a chance, few require 3-4 years to turn into something...so waiting 4 years is probably not needed.

3 - Build a strong team w/out a QB and then look to attract a FA star QB

It works but it gives you smaller windows. And you need an exceptional GM or years of being terrible (and so regular talent upgrades with the higher picks) to build a roster like that. You more likely end up like the Colts with a stacked roster and paying dearly for someone like Ryan, that probably won't move the needle. You have to a roster in place at a time elite QBs are looking to leave their teams. So there is a timing issue too.

But you notice how every pathway to success involves somehow getting a great QB? That is the problem. You can do all of the above and still never land one. We got lucky with Wilson. Ask the Jags and Bears about how hard it can be, ask the Vikings, Dolphins, and WFTs.