Espn analyst says we have a better roster than 49ers

[SantaClaraHawk]

ESPN believes the Seahawks have a better roster than the 49ers

According to Mike Clay’s unit grades, Seattle is slightly above the Niners.

www.ninersnation.com

 

[onanygivensunday]

Okay, let's start nitpicking these scores.

Geno was a Pro Bowl QB last year and only got a 1.8 while Cousins got a 2.6???

The Seahawks tied for 7th in the league in Sacks last year... and that's worth only a 0.9???

 

[AgentDib]

The unit grades (0.0-4.0 scale) are interesting on their own. I don't love the 40 points of precision on this and of course they are just one person's opinion. Too low for my tastes regarding our OL (1.1), CB (2.1) and Edge (0.9), and too high when it comes to our safeties (3.5) and DTs (1.3).

My first major objection is that simply adding these grades together is meaningless. Individual positions should be weighted differently and there are varying number of starters/depth at each position. The methodology shown doesn't produce any totals worth discussing.

My other major objection is that this sort of analysis needs to consider uncertainty very strongly at this point in the off-season. Incoming rookies haven't played a snap yet, veterans got another year older, and we have no idea what roster health for week 1 is going to look like. I'm pretty sure our cornerback grade should be higher than a 2.1, but debating between say 2.7, 3.1 or 3.3 feels completely artificial and like a wild stab in the dark. These should be very broad uncertainty ranges instead of overly precise guesstimates.

 

[94Smith]

No biggie, he had the 49ers ranked as the 14th overall unit last year and predicted 9-8

Last year he had seattle like 25 and Denver 9 so I am not sure you can put much stock into what he says

 

[94Smith]

The other thing about these numbers that is completely unrealistic is they do not distribute in a bell curve with lots of average units at each position and only a few very good and very bad units

 

[bsuhawk]

The unit grades (0.0-4.0 scale) are interesting on their own. I don't love the 40 points of precision on this and of course they are just one person's opinion. Too low for my tastes regarding our OL (1.1), CB (2.1) and Edge (0.9), and too high when it comes to our safeties (3.5) and DTs (1.3).

My first major objection is that simply adding these grades together is meaningless. Individual positions should be weighted differently and there are varying number of starters/depth at each position. The methodology shown doesn't produce any totals worth discussing.

My other major objection is that this sort of analysis needs to consider uncertainty very strongly at this point in the off-season. Incoming rookies haven't played a snap yet, veterans got another year older, and we have no idea what roster health for week 1 is going to look like. I'm pretty sure our cornerback grade should be higher than a 2.1, but debating between say 2.7, 3.1 or 3.3 feels completely artificial and like a wild stab in the dark. These should be very broad uncertainty ranges instead of overly precise guesstimates.

This is just the author trying to quantify his subjective opinion so he can pretend it actually means something other than what it is, his opinion.

 

[Hawkstorian]

Off-season lists. Feel free to make your own.

 

[Chapow]

Meh. I don't care about some dudes unit grades. The Niners had the #1 defense in the league by both yards per game and points per game last season. We had the 7th worst defense by yards per game, and the 8th worst defense by points per game.

The Niners are already legit contenders. Our D needs to improve significantly for us to be legit contenders, imo.

 

[onanygivensunday]

There's not one person in the world that knows everything about every team in the NFL to forecast an accurate assessment of how each and every team will fare in the upcoming year.

Hence, the premise that one ESPN analyst can realistically predict how every team will fare in the upcoming season is categorically false.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

The Niners were so good last year, this kind of talk actually make me nervous. I'd rather fly under the radar, have everyone talk about them and maybe catch everyone by surprise

 

[NJlargent]

At the moment the Niners are coming off a NFCCG appearance and have a proven strong defense, not a speculative one. I am a die hard fan, but the favorite to win more games this upcoming season is clearly SF. Presently the conference is Philly, SF and everyone else.

 

[sutz]

Rankings aside, I'm pretty happy with our last two drafts. Perhaps we haven't done much in FA this off season, but time will tell if that is a fatal error.

 

[FrodosFinger]

When you look at what Seattle has done these past two years defensively through the draft and in acquiring a lot of really good, explosive and impactful feee agent talent with guys like Dre’Mont Jones, Bobby, Devin Bush, Julian Love, Jarran Reed, even Mario Edwards was a brilliant addition. Then you look at their past 2 draft classes and this roster ranking doesn’t surprise me at all. The 49ers have a lot of good vets but they’re an aging roster.

 

[morgulon1]

Meh. I don't care about some dudes unit grades. The Niners had the #1 defense in the league by both yards per game and points per game last season. We had the 7th worst defense by yards per game, and the 8th worst defense by points per game.

The Niners are already legit contenders. Our D needs to improve significantly for us to be legit contenders, imo.

That's it . Nothing more nothing less. Seattle wasn't close to being competitive last season against those guys. I hate em but they're good .

 

[Weadoption]

I think the Hawks are legit if Geno plays at the same level, he has the weapons around him to dominate if he gets protection. DK is a tough stop and that new rookie WR, if he’s as advertised, ya Niners secondary has their work cut out for them.
That being said, what I don’t see yet is how the Hawks stop the Niners running game. If McCaffrey can stay healthy, and that’s not a minor if, I like our chances. He’s a legit cheat code in the short passing game.

 

[morgulon1]

There's not one person in the world that knows everything about every team in the NFL to forecast an accurate assessment of how each and every team will fare in the upcoming year.

Hence, the premise that one ESPN analyst can realistically predict how every team will fare in the upcoming season is categorically false.

Indeed. Good day Sir.

 

[seahawks08]

They still have proven stars, we are just building. I would say their coaching in the trenches and offensive play calling to complement the team is better than Hawks. We have a chance to split each game if our rookies quickly gets NFL ready. If we get lucky and we don’t have any major injuries, it’s a toss up. I am very curious about their QB situation but we will need to find a way to stop them.

 

[Rainger]

At the moment the Niners are coming off a NFCCG appearance and have a proven strong defense, not a speculative one. I am a die hard fan, but the favorite to win more games this upcoming season is clearly SF. Presently the conference is Philly, SF and everyone else.

I will predict right now BOOK MARK IT the digits will not be as good this year as last!!!!!!!! They will still be a tough nut but will not be as good or as fortunate as last year. 5 or 6 losses.

 

[CallMeADawg]

It's an interesting article. Not really sure I'd agree with it all but I think looking at the positional groups, is interesting to do.

On the defensive side of the football the 9ers are much better in the front 7, but Seattle is much stronger on the back end. We'll see how that pays out this season.

On the offensive side of the football, Seattle is significantly better at all skill positions except for running back. Lines are maybe equal or may favor Seattle with the FA losses the 9ers have. Who knows.

If Charbonnet is what he is penned as, he gives an oft injured, aging, yet still effective CMC a strong challenge. Deebo is the 9ers strong factor, but JSN may prove to be even better at that job.

Overall, I'd say the games should be much more competitive than last season and a joy to watch and attend.

 

[FrodosFinger]

No biggie, he had the 49ers ranked as the 14th overall unit last year and predicted 9-8

Last year he had seattle like 25 and Denver 9 so I am not sure you can put much stock into what he says

Let’s not act jealous bud. The rankings are in and the Hawks have a stout roster after 2 years of building thanks to Russ Wilson’s trade. You’ve had your window to try and get a Lombardi but it has closed up due to really bad drafting the past 3 years and a shit show in the secondary