Current Vegas Odds to Win

[hox]

Current Vegas odds, still at -2.5, which is basically a pick em game.

• Seattle's Overall ATS Record: 13-5
• Cover Percentage: 72.2%

Kalshi analytics, has the game at 58% chance to win for Seattle, down from 59% at opening.




These could change once the initial injury reports are released.

 

[pmedic920]

What’s the typical Home field advantage?

That seems like they are giving the edge to the rams.
Maybe trying to pull money in the Rams direction?

 

[seabowl]

-3 for home field is typical as a pick’em on a neutral field

 

[NoGain]

MM's current record against NFC West opponents 9-4

--Cards 4-0
--49ers 3-2
--Rams 2-2

If the Hawks beat the Rams this weekend, MM will have a winning record against all of his divisional rivals after his first two seasons. Considering that includes Shanahan and McVay, that would be quite impressive. Another good reason for a Hawk victory this weekend.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Everyone should keep in mind the fact that Las Vegas odds have NOTHING to do with who they think will win. It's all about adjusting the lines to keep betting roughly even on both sides so that no matter who loses, Las Vegas bank accounts win. It's a reflection of the wager ratios by people, not Las Vegas sports books themselves.

 

[hox]

Everyone should keep in mind the fact that Las Vegas odds have NOTHING to do with who they think will win. It's all about adjusting the lines to keep betting roughly even on both sides so that no matter who loses, Las Vegas bank accounts win. It's a reflection of the wager ratios by people, not Las Vegas sports books themselves.

Yes and no. They set the opening line based on data.



They add a vig so they make money no matter what.



And then it changes based on the betting action, etc.



But it's not always about "balancing" both sides:

 

[RolandDeschain]

I know it's more nuanced than I stated, I was throwing out a generalization against the common belief about Las Vegas lines that most people have. Always happy for further detail and clarification, though.

 

[Followthelegion]

there is also additional nuance around situations where the spread is at -3 or close to -3 because this number is such a pivotal handicap [as a disproportionate games are decided by 3 points]. So even if the bookies and or the public action was slightly in Seattle's favour at -2.5, and -3, it would take quite a big shift before you'd see the line shift out to -3.5.

 

[hox]

2-point game the first time. 1 point game the second time. This will go down to the wire.

 

[hox]

Both Polymarket and Kalshi how has the Seahawks winning at 57% chance. ESPN analytics has it at 54% chance.

83% of public bets have placed their money on Seattle.