Tokadub":uc1k8gwx said:
It was pretty clear to me that the 4th and 2 at the 36 yard line was our best shot to win the game. It is incorrect to say that we would have less than a 50% chance to convert the 4th and 2. We converted over 54% last season even with all our backup Offensive Linemen and no Harvin. Good Teams like Denver can convert nearly 90% over the course of the season.
Our Offense was kicking some serious booty out there from a Yards Per Attempt standpoint, I think we had at least an 80% chance to pick up that first down. If we can't pick up 2 yards with arguably the 3 best play-makers in the game (Wilson, Lynch, Harvin) then it was probably a bad play call to begin with.
But punting on 4th and 2 in that situation was really the nail in the coffin for us.
Love your conviction bro...but inventing numbers to bolster your position won't win you many debates. Just sayin'.
First, you and the others that believe punting cost us the game need to offer some examples that show the success rate of teams that were down by 6 (or 7 or less), then went for a 4th and 2 from their own 36 with 8:00 remaining in the game.
I think you will find very few teams have even attempted such a thing and trickeration should be excluded from your findings unless you are saying we should have faked the punt. This information is paramount to your argument, imo.
I know you don't believe Denver converts on such plays 90% of the time. Why would they ever punt in that situation if that was even remotely close to truth. And if it's not truth, why fabricate such a number?
You feel we had an 80% chance of converting. I don't want to be one of the yoyos in here that ask the question "do you think you know more than Pete"? But in this instance, I have to ask just that. IF Pete thought we'd have those odds, surely he would have ran a play. Or do you think he didn't see the D was struggling and / or affected by the heat? He built this team, we watch his build. Pete made the call that he felt gave us the best chance to win. Why would he not?
You continue that we have 3 of the best playmakers in the game so should be able to easily convert. Lynch aside, none of those guys can block and Harvin was virtually non-existent by that point in time.
Not punting on 4th and 2 was far from the "nail in our coffin". Not converting would have put SD damn near in field goal range. a single 1st down and they're now up by 9 with the clock ticking....and our D that much more gassed.
Pete made the right call. I've not seen a single headline or even a story reading or suggesting "Hawks decision to not go on 4th and 2 results in loss". That's because it didn't.
Make no mistake, I admire you guys that wanted to roll the dice in that situation. You are passionate fans that believe we would convert and go onto win the game. And you could be right...but that wouldn't make Pete wrong.