Are we really that good through the air?

[keasley45]

There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for us and for him, he's been able to cover over with his HOF talent. But the fact remains that the holes are still there and have been the source of much debate over the last few years as his ability to create on his own has declined. So i took some time to look at Russ's performance in isolation in the key area of passing 3rd downs. the results are below. What you'll see is that in that key area, Russ has been avg to below avg in each year over the last 4 years now.

russel stats by J_Otte, on Flickr

* - Brady and Rodgers rank shown for context regardless of being outside of the top performers[/size]

The average pass rate on 3rd down and 1 to 11 YTG across the league was 78% in 2018, 79% in 2019, and 76% in 2020 and 2021.

The avg success rate on 3rd down across the league was 40% in 2018 (Russ was at 36%), 41% (russ was at 41%) in 2019, 43% in 2020 (Russ was at 43%), and 41% in 2021 (Russ was at 36%). So Russ has achieved average play only twice in 4 years.

So the obvious thing that stands out is that despite Russel's high completion percentage, low TO ratio, long ball prowess and QBR, over the last 4 years, he's never been better than middle of the pack in terms of pass success rate on 3rd down and to go distances between 1 and 11 yards ( i didnt realize that i had the sort parameter off by a yard, but adjusting to 3rd and 10 doesnt change the result significantly ). Note that there were ties at various percentages, so the rank is +/- a few spots as the overall #of positions doesnt account for ties.

It was also notable that in 2018 and 2019 Brady's #s were surprisingly low, so i looked at where he ranked when passing on 1st and 2nd down at the same distance. His rate in 2018 was 58%, 2nd only to Brees at 62%. Rodgers, who's percentage also wasnt great on 3rd, turned out to be only 50% on 1st and 2nd down, which was in the bottom half of the league. In 2019, Brady was at 49%, also good for only bottom half of the league, while Rodgers was at 51%, good for middle of the pack. Rodgers' poor 39% rate on 3rd down in 2021 has been offset by a 55% success rate on 1st and 2nd down, 4th best rate in the league, while Brady is a tick better at 56%.

2018 was Rodgers last year with McCarthy, while 2018 and 2019 were Brady's last years with NE and a sharp decline from his 54% success rate in 2017 , 3rd best percentage, and 52% in 2016, 6th best percentage. I think its a fair assumption that the NE brass likely saw the sharp decline in Brady's numbers as a sign that maybe his time in NE was coming to an end. Notable that in 2021, Mac jones has cracked the upper ranks in terms of his 3rd pass success rating.

So given the fact that Brady's 1st and 2nd down numbers offset his poor 3rd down success rate, i took a look at how Russel faired on early downs vs 3rd down at the same down and distance. the results are below

2018 51% success rate (52% avg), between 17th and 20th overall (3 tied at 51%)
2019 54% success rate (51% avg), between 5th and 9th overall (4 tied at 54%)
2020 56% success rate (53% avg), between 8th 13th overall (5 tied at 56%)
2021 52% success rate (53% avg), between 17th and 23rd overall (6 tied at 52%)

The league avg passing on 1st and 2nd down by year:

2018 was 54% and we passed at 41%
2019 was 53% and we passed at 49%
2020 was 54% and we passed at 56%
2021 was 53% and we passed at 53%

So overall, Russel's ability to consistently move the chains with his arm is middle of the pack in the league, to below the middle of the pack, going back 4 years now. his best overall year in the past 4, passing on downs 1 through 3 was 2019, when we passed at a 49% rate on downs 1 and 2 and 75% on 3rd down (both below the league avg in terms of pass %). Going above that % or below it has seen his success rate drop.

Also worth noting is that since the start of the Let Russ Cook campaign, our running success rate on 3rd down has gone from top 5-10, to the lower half of the league, despite sporting solid rush ypc situationally and for the season.

So for all of the talk that the offense (and Pete) have benefited from Russ carrying them (its often been said that Pete is lost without Russ), the stats pretty clearly prove otherwise. When we rely on the pass to get us by and move the chains, we get far from elite play at the QB position. Russ hasnt come close to top 10 in passing on 3rd down in the last 4 years and has only been buoyed by a solid top 10 finish passing on downs 1 and 2 once in the last 4 years and that was in 2019 when our offense was most balanced.

So the conspiracy theories can churn, and the idea that we cant possibly be any better post Russ than we've been with him might be true because the guy has a special ability, but the reality is that as Russ has shouldered more of the burden and we've gone away from 'Peteball', our success has dropped sharply. our offense has become predictable in that most any good defense can stop Russ and we are failing to consistently move the chains when the ball is in his hands .

The above also supports the observation that our offense has become entirely boom or bust. if there isn't a big play to be made, we struggle mightily to be just average in making the small ones. And that is directly a reflection of our QB's style of play. Its not Waldron, its not Pete, its Russ.

And as far as whoever might be under center in the future, the bar they have to reach to surpass Russ's performance in key, measurable passing situations doesn't require 'elite' play based on the performance he's recorded now since 2018. We might miss out on the incredible comebacks that he's gifted us with over his tenure, but maybe if we were just top 10 to 15 in passing success rate, we wouldn't need the spectacular finish.

All of the above has been supported by additional digging into his performance this year relative to our success when our run pass ratio ticks below 50%. That can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=177963

The statistical data was sourced from:

http://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situa ... -off-.html

 

[John63]

There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for us and for him, he's been able to cover over with his HOF talent. But the fact remains that the holes are still there and have been the source of much debate over the last few years as his ability to create on his own has declined. So i took some time to look at Russ's performance in isolation in the key area of passing 3rd downs. the results are below. What you'll see is that in that key area, Russ has been avg to below avg in each year over the last 4 years now.


...................................................pass % / % success .....pass % / % success...pass % / % success...pass % / % success

...................................................................2018.........................2019............................2020..........................2021

3rd Down and 1-11 YTC Passing.......75% / 36%(26th).....75% / 41% (16th) .......76% / 43% (14th).....76% / 36%(24th)
3rd Down and 1-11 YTC Rushing.......25% / 67% (5th)......25% / 62% (10th)........24% / 53% (25th).....24% / 58%(16th)
................................................................5.3YPC.....................6.0YPC.......................4.2YPC....................4.5YPC


Top QB's in the same category............Rivers (51%)............Garapolo (49%)........Rodgers (51%)..........Mahomes(54%)
by % success. ....................................Mahomes (50%)......Cousins (49%)..........Mahomes (51%) .......Herbert (49%)
............................................................Winst / Fitz(48%)......Ryan (48%)..............Rothlesb (47%)..........Burrow (47%)
............................................................Brees (46%)..............Carr (48%) ..............Goff (47%)..................Stafford (47%)
.............................................................Ryan (47%)...............Brees (46%).............Allen (47%)................Jones (47%)
............................................................*Rodgers (41%)..........Prescott (46%).........Tannehill (46%)..........Allen (46%)
............................................................*Brady (40%)...............Mahomes (45%)......Brady (45%)...............Brady (44%)
...............................................................................................*Brady (36%) ..........Herbert (45%)............*Rodgers (39%)
................................................................................................Rodgers (44%)

* - Brady and Rodgers rank shown for context regardless of being outside of the top performers

The average pass rate on 3rd down and 1 to 11 YTG across the league was 78% in 2018, 79% in 2019, and 76% in 2020 and 2021.

The avg success rate on 3rd down across the league was 40% in 2018 (Russ was at 36%), 41% (russ was at 41%) in 2019, 43% in 2020 (Russ was at 43%), and 41% in 2021 (Russ was at 36%). So Russ has achieved average play only twice in 4 years.

So the obvious thing that stands out is that despite Russel's high completion percentage, low TO ratio, long ball prowess and QBR, over the last 4 years, he's never been better than middle of the pack in terms of pass success rate on 3rd down and to go distances between 1 and 11 yards ( i didnt realize that i had the sort parameter off by a yard, but adjusting to 3rd and 10 doesnt change the result significantly ). Note that there were ties at various percentages, so the rank is +/- a few spots as the overall #of positions doesnt account for ties.

It was also notable that in 2018 and 2019 Brady's #s were surprisingly low, so i looked at where he ranked when passing on 1st and 2nd down at the same distance. His rate in 2018 was 58%, 2nd only to Brees at 62%. Rodgers, who's percentage also wasnt great on 3rd, turned out to be only 50% on 1st and 2nd down, which was in the bottom half of the league. In 2019, Brady was at 49%, also good for only bottom half of the league, while Rodgers was at 51%, good for middle of the pack. Rodgers' poor 39% rate on 3rd down in 2021 has been offset by a 55% success rate on 1st and 2nd down, 4th best rate in the league, while Brady is a tick better at 56%.

2018 was Rodgers last year with McCarthy, while 2018 and 2019 were Brady's last years with NE and a sharp decline from his 54% success rate in 2017 , 3rd best percentage, and 52% in 2016, 6th best percentage. I think its a fair assumption that the NE brass likely saw the sharp decline in Brady's numbers as a sign that maybe his time in NE was coming to an end. Notable that in 2021, Mac jones has cracked the upper ranks in terms of his 3rd pass success rating.

So given the fact that Brady's 1st and 2nd down numbers offset his poor 3rd down success rate, i took a look at how Russel faired on early downs vs 3rd down at the same down and distance. the results are below

2018 51% success rate (52% avg), between 17th and 20th overall (3 tied at 51%)
2019 54% success rate (51% avg), between 5th and 9th overall (4 tied at 54%)
2020 56% success rate (53% avg), between 8th 13th overall (5 tied at 56%)
2021 52% success rate (53% avg), between 17th and 23rd overall (6 tied at 52%)

The league avg passing on 1st and 2nd down by year:

2018 was 54% and we passed at 41%
2019 was 53% and we passed at 49%
2020 was 54% and we passed at 56%
2021 was 53% and we passed at 53%

So overall, Russel's ability to consistently move the chains with his arm is middle of the pack in the league, to below the middle of the pack, going back 4 years now. his best overall year in the past 4, passing on downs 1 through 3 was 2019, when we passed at a 49% rate on downs 1 and 2 and 75% on 3rd down (both below the league avg in terms of pass %). Going above that % or below it has seen his success rate drop.

Also worth noting is that since the start of the Let Russ Cook campaign, our running success rate on 3rd down has gone from top 5-10, to the lower half of the league, despite sporting solid rush ypc situationally and for the season.

So for all of the talk that the offense (and Pete) have benefited from Russ carrying them (its often been said that Pete is lost without Russ), the stats pretty clearly prove otherwise. When we rely on the pass to get us by and move the chains, we get far from elite play at the QB position. Russ hasnt come close to top 10 in passing on 3rd down in the last 4 years and has only been buoyed by a solid top 10 finish passing on downs 1 and 2 once in the last 4 years and that was in 2019 when our offense was most balanced.

So the conspiracy theories can churn, and the idea that we cant possibly be any better post Russ than we've been with him might be true because the guy has a special ability, but the reality is that as Russ has shouldered more of the burden and we've gone away from 'Peteball', our success has dropped sharply. our offense has become predictable in that most any good defense can stop Russ and we are failing to consistently move the chains when the ball is in his hands .

The above also supports the observation that our offense has become entirely boom or bust. if there isn't a big play to be made, we struggle mightily to be just average in making the small ones. And that is directly a reflection of our QB's style of play. Its not Waldron, its not Pete, its Russ.

And as far as whoever might be under center in the future, the bar they have to reach to surpass Russ's performance in key, measurable passing situations doesn't require 'elite' play based on the performance he's recorded now since 2018. We might miss out on the incredible comebacks that he's gifted us with over his tenure, but maybe if we were just top 10 to 15 in passing success rate, we wouldn't need the spectacular finish.

All of the above has been supported by additional digging into his performance this year relative to our success when our run pass ratio ticks below 50%. That can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=177963

The statistical data was sourced from:

http://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situa ... -off-.html

Lots of great work buy without the reast ofnthe info mean little. Example what % of those first down passes were 1st and long compared to the rest of the league? Same with 2nd and 3rd. O. This forum the stats have already been shown we see more 1st. 2nd and 2rd and longs than any other team. So how does that impact your stats?

Also interesting hoe ESPN has Wson as the 7th highest ypa but the site you quote has him lower and lower ypa.

 

[keasley45]

Lots of great work buy without the reast ofnthe info mean little. Example what % of those first down passes were 1st and long compared to the rest of the league? Same with 2nd and 3rd. O. This forum the stats have already been shown we see more 1st. 2nd and 2rd and longs than any other team. So how does that impact your stats?

Same down distance as the 3rd down stats. 1, 2nd, 3rd down and anywhere between 1 and 11 YTG as compared to the rest of the league in the exact same scenario. So its 100% apples to apples.

 

[keasley45]

Depends on the variables you input to generate the results. The site also has him ranked higher in 3rd down success than other sites have put him this year - he was tickling bottom 3 given data provided by various other sites this year.

just checked though and his avg YPA is 7.6 which is good for about 7th as you stated when you adjust for any down and distance. So its the same.

 

[John63]

Further more if you look at passing first downs, meaning number of first downs via the pass over the last 4 years you would fund we are middle of the pack. However you would also find we are middle of the pack on pass attempts. If you look at the number of passing g first downs as percentage of total first downs as a team we are top 10. You can Google nfl teams passing first downs for the info.

 

[John63]

There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for us and for him, he's been able to cover over with his HOF talent. But the fact remains that the holes are still there and have been the source of much debate over the last few years as his ability to create on his own has declined. So i took some time to look at Russ's performance in isolation in the key area of passing 3rd downs. the results are below. What you'll see is that in that key area, Russ has been avg to below avg in each year over the last 4 years now.


...................................................pass % / % success .....pass % / % success...pass % / % success...pass % / % success

...................................................................2018.........................2019............................2020..........................2021

3rd Down and 1-11 YTC Passing.......75% / 36%(26th).....75% / 41% (16th) .......76% / 43% (14th).....76% / 36%(24th)
3rd Down and 1-11 YTC Rushing.......25% / 67% (5th)......25% / 62% (10th)........24% / 53% (25th).....24% / 58%(16th)
................................................................5.3YPC.....................6.0YPC.......................4.2YPC....................4.5YPC


Top QB's in the same category............Rivers (51%)............Garapolo (49%)........Rodgers (51%)..........Mahomes(54%)
by % success. ....................................Mahomes (50%)......Cousins (49%)..........Mahomes (51%) .......Herbert (49%)
............................................................Winst / Fitz(48%)......Ryan (48%)..............Rothlesb (47%)..........Burrow (47%)
............................................................Brees (46%)..............Carr (48%) ..............Goff (47%)..................Stafford (47%)
.............................................................Ryan (47%)...............Brees (46%).............Allen (47%)................Jones (47%)
............................................................*Rodgers (41%)..........Prescott (46%).........Tannehill (46%)..........Allen (46%)
............................................................*Brady (40%)...............Mahomes (45%)......Brady (45%)...............Brady (44%)
...............................................................................................*Brady (36%) ..........Herbert (45%)............*Rodgers (39%)
................................................................................................Rodgers (44%)

* - Brady and Rodgers rank shown for context regardless of being outside of the top performers

The average pass rate on 3rd down and 1 to 11 YTG across the league was 78% in 2018, 79% in 2019, and 76% in 2020 and 2021.

The avg success rate on 3rd down across the league was 40% in 2018 (Russ was at 36%), 41% (russ was at 41%) in 2019, 43% in 2020 (Russ was at 43%), and 41% in 2021 (Russ was at 36%). So Russ has achieved average play only twice in 4 years.

So the obvious thing that stands out is that despite Russel's high completion percentage, low TO ratio, long ball prowess and QBR, over the last 4 years, he's never been better than middle of the pack in terms of pass success rate on 3rd down and to go distances between 1 and 11 yards ( i didnt realize that i had the sort parameter off by a yard, but adjusting to 3rd and 10 doesnt change the result significantly ). Note that there were ties at various percentages, so the rank is +/- a few spots as the overall #of positions doesnt account for ties.

It was also notable that in 2018 and 2019 Brady's #s were surprisingly low, so i looked at where he ranked when passing on 1st and 2nd down at the same distance. His rate in 2018 was 58%, 2nd only to Brees at 62%. Rodgers, who's percentage also wasnt great on 3rd, turned out to be only 50% on 1st and 2nd down, which was in the bottom half of the league. In 2019, Brady was at 49%, also good for only bottom half of the league, while Rodgers was at 51%, good for middle of the pack. Rodgers' poor 39% rate on 3rd down in 2021 has been offset by a 55% success rate on 1st and 2nd down, 4th best rate in the league, while Brady is a tick better at 56%.

2018 was Rodgers last year with McCarthy, while 2018 and 2019 were Brady's last years with NE and a sharp decline from his 54% success rate in 2017 , 3rd best percentage, and 52% in 2016, 6th best percentage. I think its a fair assumption that the NE brass likely saw the sharp decline in Brady's numbers as a sign that maybe his time in NE was coming to an end. Notable that in 2021, Mac jones has cracked the upper ranks in terms of his 3rd pass success rating.

So given the fact that Brady's 1st and 2nd down numbers offset his poor 3rd down success rate, i took a look at how Russel faired on early downs vs 3rd down at the same down and distance. the results are below

2018 51% success rate (52% avg), between 17th and 20th overall (3 tied at 51%)
2019 54% success rate (51% avg), between 5th and 9th overall (4 tied at 54%)
2020 56% success rate (53% avg), between 8th 13th overall (5 tied at 56%)
2021 52% success rate (53% avg), between 17th and 23rd overall (6 tied at 52%)

The league avg passing on 1st and 2nd down by year:

2018 was 54% and we passed at 41%
2019 was 53% and we passed at 49%
2020 was 54% and we passed at 56%
2021 was 53% and we passed at 53%

So overall, Russel's ability to consistently move the chains with his arm is middle of the pack in the league, to below the middle of the pack, going back 4 years now. his best overall year in the past 4, passing on downs 1 through 3 was 2019, when we passed at a 49% rate on downs 1 and 2 and 75% on 3rd down (both below the league avg in terms of pass %). Going above that % or below it has seen his success rate drop.

Also worth noting is that since the start of the Let Russ Cook campaign, our running success rate on 3rd down has gone from top 5-10, to the lower half of the league, despite sporting solid rush ypc situationally and for the season.

So for all of the talk that the offense (and Pete) have benefited from Russ carrying them (its often been said that Pete is lost without Russ), the stats pretty clearly prove otherwise. When we rely on the pass to get us by and move the chains, we get far from elite play at the QB position. Russ hasnt come close to top 10 in passing on 3rd down in the last 4 years and has only been buoyed by a solid top 10 finish passing on downs 1 and 2 once in the last 4 years and that was in 2019 when our offense was most balanced.

So the conspiracy theories can churn, and the idea that we cant possibly be any better post Russ than we've been with him might be true because the guy has a special ability, but the reality is that as Russ has shouldered more of the burden and we've gone away from 'Peteball', our success has dropped sharply. our offense has become predictable in that most any good defense can stop Russ and we are failing to consistently move the chains when the ball is in his hands .

The above also supports the observation that our offense has become entirely boom or bust. if there isn't a big play to be made, we struggle mightily to be just average in making the small ones. And that is directly a reflection of our QB's style of play. Its not Waldron, its not Pete, its Russ.

And as far as whoever might be under center in the future, the bar they have to reach to surpass Russ's performance in key, measurable passing situations doesn't require 'elite' play based on the performance he's recorded now since 2018. We might miss out on the incredible comebacks that he's gifted us with over his tenure, but maybe if we were just top 10 to 15 in passing success rate, we wouldn't need the spectacular finish.

All of the above has been supported by additional digging into his performance this year relative to our success when our run pass ratio ticks below 50%. That can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=177963

The statistical data was sourced from:

http://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situa ... -off-.html

Lots of great work buy without the reast ofnthe info mean little. Example what % of those first down passes were 1st and long compared to the rest of the league? Same with 2nd and 3rd. O. This forum the stats have already been shown we see more 1st. 2nd and 2rd and longs than any other team. So how does that impact your stats?

Same down distance as the 3rd down stats. 1, 2nd, 3rd down and anywhere between 1 and 11 YTG as compared to the rest of the league in the exact same scenario. So its 100% apples to apples.

No as there is the number of attempts, opponent etc etc.

 

[John63]

There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for us and for him, he's been able to cover over with his HOF talent. But the fact remains that the holes are still there and have been the source of much debate over the last few years as his ability to create on his own has declined. So i took some time to look at Russ's performance in isolation in the key area of passing 3rd downs. the results are below. What you'll see is that in that key area, Russ has been avg to below avg in each year over the last 4 years now.


...................................................pass % / % success .....pass % / % success...pass % / % success...pass % / % success

...................................................................2018.........................2019............................2020..........................2021

3rd Down and 1-11 YTC Passing.......75% / 36%(26th).....75% / 41% (16th) .......76% / 43% (14th).....76% / 36%(24th)
3rd Down and 1-11 YTC Rushing.......25% / 67% (5th)......25% / 62% (10th)........24% / 53% (25th).....24% / 58%(16th)
................................................................5.3YPC.....................6.0YPC.......................4.2YPC....................4.5YPC


Top QB's in the same category............Rivers (51%)............Garapolo (49%)........Rodgers (51%)..........Mahomes(54%)
by % success. ....................................Mahomes (50%)......Cousins (49%)..........Mahomes (51%) .......Herbert (49%)
............................................................Winst / Fitz(48%)......Ryan (48%)..............Rothlesb (47%)..........Burrow (47%)
............................................................Brees (46%)..............Carr (48%) ..............Goff (47%)..................Stafford (47%)
.............................................................Ryan (47%)...............Brees (46%).............Allen (47%)................Jones (47%)
............................................................*Rodgers (41%)..........Prescott (46%).........Tannehill (46%)..........Allen (46%)
............................................................*Brady (40%)...............Mahomes (45%)......Brady (45%)...............Brady (44%)
...............................................................................................*Brady (36%) ..........Herbert (45%)............*Rodgers (39%)
................................................................................................Rodgers (44%)

* - Brady and Rodgers rank shown for context regardless of being outside of the top performers

The average pass rate on 3rd down and 1 to 11 YTG across the league was 78% in 2018, 79% in 2019, and 76% in 2020 and 2021.

The avg success rate on 3rd down across the league was 40% in 2018 (Russ was at 36%), 41% (russ was at 41%) in 2019, 43% in 2020 (Russ was at 43%), and 41% in 2021 (Russ was at 36%). So Russ has achieved average play only twice in 4 years.

So the obvious thing that stands out is that despite Russel's high completion percentage, low TO ratio, long ball prowess and QBR, over the last 4 years, he's never been better than middle of the pack in terms of pass success rate on 3rd down and to go distances between 1 and 11 yards ( i didnt realize that i had the sort parameter off by a yard, but adjusting to 3rd and 10 doesnt change the result significantly ). Note that there were ties at various percentages, so the rank is +/- a few spots as the overall #of positions doesnt account for ties.

It was also notable that in 2018 and 2019 Brady's #s were surprisingly low, so i looked at where he ranked when passing on 1st and 2nd down at the same distance. His rate in 2018 was 58%, 2nd only to Brees at 62%. Rodgers, who's percentage also wasnt great on 3rd, turned out to be only 50% on 1st and 2nd down, which was in the bottom half of the league. In 2019, Brady was at 49%, also good for only bottom half of the league, while Rodgers was at 51%, good for middle of the pack. Rodgers' poor 39% rate on 3rd down in 2021 has been offset by a 55% success rate on 1st and 2nd down, 4th best rate in the league, while Brady is a tick better at 56%.

2018 was Rodgers last year with McCarthy, while 2018 and 2019 were Brady's last years with NE and a sharp decline from his 54% success rate in 2017 , 3rd best percentage, and 52% in 2016, 6th best percentage. I think its a fair assumption that the NE brass likely saw the sharp decline in Brady's numbers as a sign that maybe his time in NE was coming to an end. Notable that in 2021, Mac jones has cracked the upper ranks in terms of his 3rd pass success rating.

So given the fact that Brady's 1st and 2nd down numbers offset his poor 3rd down success rate, i took a look at how Russel faired on early downs vs 3rd down at the same down and distance. the results are below

2018 51% success rate (52% avg), between 17th and 20th overall (3 tied at 51%)
2019 54% success rate (51% avg), between 5th and 9th overall (4 tied at 54%)
2020 56% success rate (53% avg), between 8th 13th overall (5 tied at 56%)
2021 52% success rate (53% avg), between 17th and 23rd overall (6 tied at 52%)

The league avg passing on 1st and 2nd down by year:

2018 was 54% and we passed at 41%
2019 was 53% and we passed at 49%
2020 was 54% and we passed at 56%
2021 was 53% and we passed at 53%

So overall, Russel's ability to consistently move the chains with his arm is middle of the pack in the league, to below the middle of the pack, going back 4 years now. his best overall year in the past 4, passing on downs 1 through 3 was 2019, when we passed at a 49% rate on downs 1 and 2 and 75% on 3rd down (both below the league avg in terms of pass %). Going above that % or below it has seen his success rate drop.

Also worth noting is that since the start of the Let Russ Cook campaign, our running success rate on 3rd down has gone from top 5-10, to the lower half of the league, despite sporting solid rush ypc situationally and for the season.

So for all of the talk that the offense (and Pete) have benefited from Russ carrying them (its often been said that Pete is lost without Russ), the stats pretty clearly prove otherwise. When we rely on the pass to get us by and move the chains, we get far from elite play at the QB position. Russ hasnt come close to top 10 in passing on 3rd down in the last 4 years and has only been buoyed by a solid top 10 finish passing on downs 1 and 2 once in the last 4 years and that was in 2019 when our offense was most balanced.

So the conspiracy theories can churn, and the idea that we cant possibly be any better post Russ than we've been with him might be true because the guy has a special ability, but the reality is that as Russ has shouldered more of the burden and we've gone away from 'Peteball', our success has dropped sharply. our offense has become predictable in that most any good defense can stop Russ and we are failing to consistently move the chains when the ball is in his hands .

The above also supports the observation that our offense has become entirely boom or bust. if there isn't a big play to be made, we struggle mightily to be just average in making the small ones. And that is directly a reflection of our QB's style of play. Its not Waldron, its not Pete, its Russ.

And as far as whoever might be under center in the future, the bar they have to reach to surpass Russ's performance in key, measurable passing situations doesn't require 'elite' play based on the performance he's recorded now since 2018. We might miss out on the incredible comebacks that he's gifted us with over his tenure, but maybe if we were just top 10 to 15 in passing success rate, we wouldn't need the spectacular finish.

All of the above has been supported by additional digging into his performance this year relative to our success when our run pass ratio ticks below 50%. That can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=177963

The statistical data was sourced from:

http://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situa ... -off-.html

Lots of great work buy without the reast ofnthe info mean little. Example what % of those first down passes were 1st and long compared to the rest of the league? Same with 2nd and 3rd. O. This forum the stats have already been shown we see more 1st. 2nd and 2rd and longs than any other team. So how does that impact your stats?

Also interesting hoe ESPN has Wson as the 7th highest ypa but the site you quote has him lower and lower ypa.

Depends on the variables you input to generate the results. The site also has him ranked higher in 3rd down success than other sites have put him this year - he was tickling bottom 3 given data provided by various other sites this year.

just checked though and his avg YPA is 7.6 which is good for about 7th as you stated when you adjust for any down and distance. So its the same.

So since we are being..polite I do appreciate the work. The question remains though is it Wilson or the system. Example play called for 3rd and 6 we goes 5 with OC expecting yac but no yac. While I agree Like all QBs Wilson makes mistakes, I also believe the system is or was part of the issue. Example of mistakes like watching Mahomes in 5 of 6 games miss wide open guys for first downs this year. They all do it. The question though is how much is the QB, how much is system and how much is other things. Those QBs who put up good stats and win i tend to believe is more system and other things. Those that don't I look more at the QB.

All the stuff you showed does not match the output of Wilson which leads one to believe either the site is wrong or there is other things at play. There are sites that also provide that level of info but they show a much different outcome. Such as football outsiders(paid only for this level).

 

[keasley45]

And if you adjust the parameters for any down and distance in 2021, his success rate is 44%, which is well below the average of 47% in the league and woefully behind Brady at 52%, Rodgers at 50%, Mahomes at 54%, and just about every other franchise qb in the league. For context, RW's success rate passing this year is no better than the Jets, Jacksonville, houston, Denver, and indianapolis and is worse than WFT and Cleveland.

Last year in the same game parameters, he was at 50%, which was better than the league average, but still not elite.

 

[John63]

And if you adjust the parameters for any down and distance in 2021, his success rate is 44%, which is well below the average of 47% in the league and woefully behind Brady at 52%, Rodgers at 50%, Mahomes at 54%, and just about every other franchise qb in the league. For context, RW's success rate passing this year is no better than the Jets, Jacksonville, houston, Denver, and indianapolis and is worse than WFT and Cleveland.

Last year in the same game parameters, he was at 50%, which was better than the league average, but still not elite.

Well I tend to not count this year given the injury and all. As to the rest it is likely that site shows that. But again other sites show a different picture. Like I said there are alot of variables that this site and no site can take into account. So again great work. Shows a piece of the picture, one that can countered numerous ways. For example our defense I bend dont break and everyone says scoring is what matters. Okay well that goes for offense too and Wilson has bee. Top 5-10 in tds.

 

[John63]

Another thing that .Ages me question the stats, not you the sites Info is this

67% complt, 3900 yards, 7.8 ypa, 35 tds, 5 ints 107 passer rating, 67 qbr. All top 5-10

Those are his 2018-2020 avg. Those numbers could not be true if thos things that site shows is accurate. Given other sites footballoutsiders paid part show different I question them.

All that aside and again thanks for the work. It does not sound logical that someone with the stats Wilson has shown as that site shows especially when other sites say something different.

 

[keasley45]

So since we are being..polite I do appreciate the work. The question remains though is it Wilson or the system. Example play called for 3rd and 6 we goes 5 with OC expecting yac but no yac. While I agree Like all QBs Wilson makes mistakes, I also believe the system is or was part of the issue. Example of mistakes like watching Mahomes in 5 of 6 games miss wide open guys for first downs this year. They all do it. The question though is how much is the QB, how much is system and how much is other things. Those QBs who put up good stats and win i tend to believe is more system and other things. Those that don't I look more at the QB.

All the stuff you showed does not match the output of Wilson which leads one to believe either the site is wrong or there is other things at play. There are sites that also provide that level of info but they show a much different outcome. Such as football outsiders(paid only for this level).

If you are judging WIlson purely on completion percentage, QBR and TD to TO ratio, i agree, those things appear incongruent. But they arent necessarily if you look at Wilsons game.

His completion percentage is always great. But its often a result of never taking risks with the ball or throwing into tight spaces or over the middle. So his completion numbers look great, but the ball isnt necessarily being fit into thos tough areas that are often the places it needs to go to move the chains against a good defense - which is in part why the good defenses stop us. Russ wont throw it unless he sees his guy open by a good margin and that happens less frequently in high stakes situations like those against great teams or in the playoffs.

Same with his TO ratio. If you arent throwing into risky situations, you are less likely to turn the ball over. Risk is mitigated to a degree when you are skilled at dissecting defenses. But Russ rarely shows the ability to dissect a coverage beyond the first read and flat often refuses to hit certain throws despite the fact that the play is obviously set to get the ball to a given spot. Case in pont, there have been MANY situations where hes had a WR wunning a clear out to free up a rout underneath and he foregoes the successful route to throw to the wr running down the sideline. This tendency to not look beyond his initial read within the flow of the play also contributes to his high sak total.

And if youve watched the number of plays over the last two years now that have been missed, its far from remotely close to whatever rut Mahomes or whoever else has found themselves in. And id bet you dollars to donuts that Russ's pass success rate isnt much better if you go back 4 more years. It is THE thing that OC's have been scheming to try ti improve since he's been here. the difference was that prior to 2016 we relied on the run to convert consistently, keep defenses off kilt, and move the chains. Since then, the offense has become increasingly one run through Russ's arm, and the stats speak for themselves. You can lament not having the greatest show on turf in terms of playcalling. But if we had it (and we have an OC now whos versed in one of the most advanced passing games in the league in Waldron), if the QB isnt able to function within it and get the ball out (as Waldron has even said this year in his assessment of the what Russ needs to do), its not going to matter. You cant blame the system if there are plays being left on the field consistently, week in and week out for consecutive seasons. The issue spans well beyond Waldron and even Schottenheimer's tenure.

 

[keasley45]

Another thing that .Ages me question the stats, not you the sites Info is this

67% complt, 3900 yards, 7.8 ypa, 35 tds, 5 ints 107 passer rating, 67 qbr. All top 5-10

Those are his 2018-2020 avg. Those numbers could not be true if thos things that site shows is accurate. Given other sites footballoutsiders paid part show different I question them.

All that aside and again thanks for the work. It does not sound logical that someone with the stats Wilson has shown as that site shows especially when other sites say something different.

no problem. But those things ABSOLUTELY can exist within the same QB.

Remember, it wasnt in dispute even before this post that Russel was poor on 3rd down passing or the fact that our average drive length has been near or at the bottom of the league this year.

And if you take those things together, it paints a picture of an offense that can obviously score big and we do. conversion percentages go out the window when you're hitting deep balls constantly and long TD strikes, which is what Wilson and this passing game is known for. this year there were countless games where our average number of plays per drive hovered around 5. Thats equivalent to one one or two 1st down conversions per possession which squares exactly with the stats above. yet in those games, we'd still post 2, 3 or more TD's. So the yards are there, the YPA are there, but the short drive duration and plays per drive dont lie. they point directy to the fact that we arent good at moving the ball consistently and converting 1st downs.

Thats been a point of debate for two years now and these stats show it clearly. We are great making splash plays, we dont take risks or 'easy plays' and we dont turn the ball over. All things that can and do happen despite our shortcomings.

 

[John63]

Lots of great work buy without the reast ofnthe info mean little. Example what % of those first down passes were 1st and long compared to the rest of the league? Same with 2nd and 3rd. O. This forum the stats have already been shown we see more 1st. 2nd and 2rd and longs than any other team. So how does that impact your stats?

Also interesting hoe ESPN has Wson as the 7th highest ypa but the site you quote has him lower and lower ypa.

Depends on the variables you input to generate the results. The site also has him ranked higher in 3rd down success than other sites have put him this year - he was tickling bottom 3 given data provided by various other sites this year.

just checked though and his avg YPA is 7.6 which is good for about 7th as you stated when you adjust for any down and distance. So its the same.

So since we are being..polite I do appreciate the work. The question remains though is it Wilson or the system. Example play called for 3rd and 6 we goes 5 with OC expecting yac but no yac. While I agree Like all QBs Wilson makes mistakes, I also believe the system is or was part of the issue. Example of mistakes like watching Mahomes in 5 of 6 games miss wide open guys for first downs this year. They all do it. The question though is how much is the QB, how much is system and how much is other things. Those QBs who put up good stats and win i tend to believe is more system and other things. Those that don't I look more at the QB.

All the stuff you showed does not match the output of Wilson which leads one to believe either the site is wrong or there is other things at play. There are sites that also provide that level of info but they show a much different outcome. Such as football outsiders(paid only for this level).

If you are judging WIlson purely on completion percentage, QBR and TD to TO ratio, i agree, those things appear incongruent. But they arent necessarily if you look at Wilsons game.

His completion percentage is always great. But its often a result of never taking risks with the ball or throwing into tight spaces or over the middle. So his completion numbers look great, but the ball isnt necessarily being fit into thos tough areas that are often the places it needs to go to move the chains against a good defense - which is in part why the good defenses stop us. Russ wont throw it unless he sees his guy open by a good margin and that happens less frequently in high stakes situations like those against great teams or in the playoffs.

Same with his TO ratio. If you arent throwing into risky situations, you are less likely to turn the ball over. Risk is mitigated to a degree when you are skilled at dissecting defenses. But Russ rarely shows the ability to dissect a coverage beyond the first read and flat often refuses to hit certain throws despite the fact that the play is obviously set to get the ball to a given spot. Case in pont, there have been MANY situations where hes had a WR wunning a clear out to free up a rout underneath and he foregoes the successful route to throw to the wr running down the sideline. This tendency to not look beyond his initial read within the flow of the play also contributes to his high sak total.

And if youve watched the number of plays over the last two years now that have been missed, its far from remotely close to whatever rut Mahomes or whoever else has found themselves in. And id bet you dollars to donuts that Russ's pass success rate isnt much better if you go back 4 more years. It is THE thing that OC's have been scheming to try ti improve since he's been here. the difference was that prior to 2016 we relied on the run to convert consistently, keep defenses off kilt, and move the chains. Since then, the offense has become increasingly one run through Russ's arm, and the stats speak for themselves. You can lament not having the greatest show on turf in terms of playcalling. But if we had it (and we have an OC now whos versed in one of the most advanced passing games in the league in Waldron), if the QB isnt able to function within it and get the ball out (as Waldron has even said this year in his assessment of the what Russ needs to do), its not going to matter. You cant blame the system if there are plays being left on the field consistently, week in and week out for consecutive seasons. The issue spans well beyond Waldron and even Schottenheimer's tenure.

Okay so you wrote a lot adn it is late but I will focus on one thign for now

"His completion percentage is always great. But its often a result of never taking risks with the ball or throwing into tight spaces or over the middle."

So first lets start with tight window example 2019



https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/st...ord-second-best-tight-window-quarterback-2019

also to counter the whole thing

https://www.pff.com/news/the-best-nfl-quarterback-at-every-throw-and-situation-35-categories

Now as to the offense running through Wilson I dont agree the offense ran through Wilson for 5 games last year, and for well 1 this year. and in those games, his numbers have been incredible and we won all but 1 of them.

Like I have said for every stat or site or expert saying one thing there is a stat or site or expert saying another.

Here is another notice who is top 4-5 in nearly every category

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...accuracy-decision-making-rushing-ability-more


also

https://www.milehighreport.com/2021...-by-distance-among-starting-quarterbacks-2020

 

[keasley45]

And if you adjust the parameters for any down and distance in 2021, his success rate is 44%, which is well below the average of 47% in the league and woefully behind Brady at 52%, Rodgers at 50%, Mahomes at 54%, and just about every other franchise qb in the league. For context, RW's success rate passing this year is no better than the Jets, Jacksonville, houston, Denver, and indianapolis and is worse than WFT and Cleveland.

Last year in the same game parameters, he was at 50%, which was better than the league average, but still not elite.

Well I tend to not count this year given the injury and all. As to the rest it is likely that site shows that. But again other sites show a different picture. Like I said there are alot of variables that this site and no site can take into account. So again great work. Shows a piece of the picture, one that can countered numerous ways. For example our defense I bend dont break and everyone says scoring is what matters. Okay well that goes for offense too and Wilson has bee. Top 5-10 in tds.

you are absolutely right, and i'm glad we are working through this because its important. Yes, Russel will be top 5 or 10 in td's, but when 3 of those TDs happen within drives that take up, say 4 minutes of the clock, and the rest of the time, your'e struggling to move the ball because you get your success on long plays, a defense that is average is going to be worse. But if that's how you're offense runs, what are you going to do?

And that's where we've been this year. Russ and the passing attack were all feast and famine. bottom of the league in 3rd down conversion passing. bottom of the league in sustained drives. yet tops in the league in passing TDs, TO ratio, yards, etc. And despite the points, it wasnt helping us sustain leads. We could go out and hit the big play and score points for 2 qtrs, but then defenses would adjust and when the big play was gone, so was or offense. Which put a defense that was out of sorts early on in an even more difficult predicament.

And that's not a finger pointing assessment. it just is what this team is right now. But it doesnt help if one sie of the ball cant play a style that helps the other. nor is it helpful that we could post points but then not hold opposing offenses consistently.

 

[John63]

And if you adjust the parameters for any down and distance in 2021, his success rate is 44%, which is well below the average of 47% in the league and woefully behind Brady at 52%, Rodgers at 50%, Mahomes at 54%, and just about every other franchise qb in the league. For context, RW's success rate passing this year is no better than the Jets, Jacksonville, houston, Denver, and indianapolis and is worse than WFT and Cleveland.

Last year in the same game parameters, he was at 50%, which was better than the league average, but still not elite.

Well I tend to not count this year given the injury and all. As to the rest it is likely that site shows that. But again other sites show a different picture. Like I said there are alot of variables that this site and no site can take into account. So again great work. Shows a piece of the picture, one that can countered numerous ways. For example our defense I bend dont break and everyone says scoring is what matters. Okay well that goes for offense too and Wilson has bee. Top 5-10 in tds.

you are absolutely right, and i'm glad we are working through this because its important. Yes, Russel will be top 5 or 10 in td's, but when 3 of those TDs happen within drives that take up, say 4 minutes of the clock, and the rest of the time, your'e struggling to move the ball because you get your success on long plays, a defense that is average is going to be worse. But if that's how you're offense runs, what are you going to do?

And that's where we've been this year. Russ and the passing attack were all feast and famine. bottom of the league in 3rd down conversion passing. bottom of the league in sustained drives. yet tops in the league in passing TDs, TO ratio, yards, etc. And despite the points, it wasnt helping us sustain leads. We could go out and hit the big play and score points for 2 qtrs, but then defenses would adjust and when the big play was gone, so was or offense. Which put a defense that was out of sorts early on in an even more difficult predicament.

And that's not a finger pointing assessment. it just is what this team is right now. But it doesnt help if one sie of the ball cant play a style that helps the other. nor is it helpful that we could post points but then not hold opposing offenses consistently.

So you know I redid my last post and added some stuff.

No looking into football outsiders stats on 3rd down we are low on getting the first, we are also top 5 in yardage required so that's where the apples to apples fail to me.

That aside as to one side versus the other if and this is a big if they can play with the same style they did against the lions and in the first half of the indy game we are fine. To me that means PC letting them do it.

What I mean is the motion, the movement, the temp, the changing of tempo the crossing routes etc. It has always been my contention and many experts agreed and hass even talked about it is we have been, way too predictable. Too much lineup, show our hand wait to the last minute. PC has said and its in his book he wants to out-execute the other team even if they know what's coming. The problem with that is, it means that you need all pros at nearly every position including Qb and we don't have that. The oline is the biggest issue.


As to where the passing game has been a lot of that has been a by-product of PC style remember he has said and it's in his book, he wants to run, throw long, negate Tos and win in the end. Well, guess what it does not work anymore. Wilson knows that PC I hope is starting to. The Last game to me was a huge thing. I saw PC stay out of the offense, meaning I hardly even saw him talking to the OC, or Wilson unless it was off scores. and the offense looked great, we ran great, we rolled Wilson out which helped the run game, we had motion, we through short, intermediate, and long. That's what we need to do.

I think the difference between you and I is you think this was all on Wilson. While I think it was all on PC. Maybe the reality is it's both of them and hopefully, they are learning to change.

 

[keasley45]

Okay so you wrote a lot adn it is late but I will focus on one thign for now

"His completion percentage is always great. But its often a result of never taking risks with the ball or throwing into tight spaces or over the middle."

So first lets start with tight window example 2019



https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/st...ord-second-best-tight-window-quarterback-2019

also to counter the whole thing

https://www.pff.com/news/the-best-nfl-quarterback-at-every-throw-and-situation-35-categories

Now as to the offense running through Wilson I dont agree the offense ran through Wilson for 5 games last year, and for well 1 this year. and in those games, his numbers have been incredible and we won all but 1 of them.

Like I have said for every stat or site or expert saying one thing there is a stat or site or expert saying another.

Here is another notice who is top 4-5 in nearly every category

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...accuracy-decision-making-rushing-ability-more


also

https://www.milehighreport.com/2021...-by-distance-among-starting-quarterbacks-2020

The Twitter link quotes a stat about fitting a ball into a tight space 'when targeted'. It doesnt take into account the number of times each qb actually throws into tight coverage.

The 2nd site quotes stats from 2019, the year that the stats that i quoted show that Russel performed the best. So there's no debate there. But the categories that he rates high in dont counter the fact that his conversion rate passing was below average. For example, the first stat talks about throwing inside the numbers. It says Russ is tops n completion percentage on throws there and ypa. But it doesnt say how often that pass resulted in a 3rd down conversion, or how often he goes there. And the YPA attempt stat is already shown to not necessarily have a bearing on what this post is about , which is our ability to consistently move the chains through the air in a non boom or bust way. It just supports the fact that we are boom or bust.

And the last site is an opinion piece. No factual references

if you go to stat muse you will find the following which again tracks with whats been posted in this thread;

in 2021 Russell Wilson has a passer rating of 89.6 with 654 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 13 games on 3rd down with a completion percentage of 50.5%

In 2020 Russell Wilson had a passer rating of 81.7 with 791 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 16 games on 3rd down and a completion percentage of 60.7%

in 2019 Russell Wilson had a passer rating of 98.2 with 1,085 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 16 games on 3rd down with a completion percentage of 60.6%

but on 2nd down in 2019 he was lights out posting a 114 rating and 71% completion percentage

and on 1st down he was almost as good, posting 65% completion and a 104 rating

So the stats that you are referencing from 2019 aren't out of line with anything posted. your references just dont cite conversion success through the air which is a different measure altogether

 

[keasley45]

So you know I redid my last post and added some stuff.

No looking into football outsiders stats on 3rd down we are low on getting the first, we are also top 5 in yardage required so that's where the apples to apples fail to me.

That aside as to one side versus the other if and this is a big if they can play with the same style they did against the lions and in the first half of the indy game we are fine. To me that means PC letting them do it.

What I mean is the motion, the movement, the temp, the changing of tempo the crossing routes etc. It has always been my contention and many experts agreed and hass even talked about it is we have been, way too predictable. Too much lineup, show our hand wait to the last minute. PC has said and its in his book he wants to out-execute the other team even if they know what's coming. The problem with that is, it means that you need all pros at nearly every position including Qb and we don't have that. The oline is the biggest issue.


As to where the passing game has been a lot of that has been a by-product of PC style remember he has said and it's in his book, he wants to run, throw long, negate Tos and win in the end. Well, guess what it does not work anymore. Wilson knows that PC I hope is starting to. The Last game to me was a huge thing. I saw PC stay out of the offense, meaning I hardly even saw him talking to the OC, or Wilson unless it was off scores. and the offense looked great, we ran great, we rolled Wilson out which helped the run game, we had motion, we through short, intermediate, and long. That's what we need to do.

I think the difference between you and I is you think this was all on Wilson. While I think it was all on PC. Maybe the reality is it's both of them and hopefully, they are learning to change.

i agree with the last part of what you said. Yes, Pete can and should be more flexible. And yes, i thikn Russ needs to improve his Xs and Os.

But i dont see it as all being on Russ. What i do see is blame being pushed to Pete, or the scheme, or the OC, when there are heaps of yardage and first downs left on the field every week. And when the qb is asked why he didnt take the less difficult play, he defends going for the big shot. So if its on tape for everyone to see (and it is), If the coach is frustrated by it (and he expressed it), if the OC comes out and says that if the ball doesnt come out on time his offense doesnt work (and he has), the QB admits a preference for the big play (and he has) and the stats show that we hit the big play well because we have yards and TD's but suck at moving the chains (and they do), then all of those things line up pretty squarely with a scenario where much of what is required to fix this falls on the QB.

Can Pete be set is his ways? yes. Is it a detriment? yes. Case in point, the BS around Tre Flowers this year. But this year in particular on offense, he turned the reigns over. He did last year as well until the wheels were coming off.

And yes, we should be more dynamic on Offense but i dont see how you can put the blame at Pete's feet for not doing certain things when we did some of what you are saying in game one, the last game, in preseason, and with Geno in terms of the screen game in aprticular vs the Steelers and just overall vs the Jags. in between, it was Russ making his hay doing the same stuff he's always done and not once this year, after being pretty vocal about how stale the offense was for two years did he complain about being 'made' to play a certain way. i saw his receivers frustrated at not getting the ball, but not him. i only ever saw him defending his play and the offense.

 

[IndyHawk]

Great OP
Posted plenty of good information..Could do without the lack of football
knowledge that questioned that post so much.

 

[Cyrus12]

Why the need to quote everything in the reply?????? well I read the first post...

 

[keasley45]

I removed most of the quotes in my responses. Sorry about that .