Are we really that good through the air?

nutluck

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It does show also that scheme matters as well for the OP. Since for example Stafford was not on that list until he ended up with McVay and started playing with a new scheme.
 
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keasley45

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nutluck":3qhm10v0 said:
It does show also that scheme matters as well for the OP. Since for example Stafford was not on that list until he ended up with McVay and started playing with a new scheme.

Scheme does make a difference. But given the plays consistently left on the field in Seattle week in and week out and the obvious failure to beat pretty simple coverages for seasons on end now, our scheme has pretty good potential for better play. We just aren't hitting the plays.

And between 2016 and 2021 on 3rd down, Stafford is still above average, where Russ comes in below the league average at 35%.
 
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keasley45

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To put the myth to bed that it can't be possible for Russ to put up good stats AND be a liability, take in the following stat line:

320 for 495 (65%), 32td vs 0 interceptions, 3952 yards passing. 192 yards rushing on 32 carries (6 ypc). Passer rating of 110.

That's HOF good, right?

Well those stats are Wilson's for the WFT game this year, extrapolated over 16 games.

Wilson was maybe his most ineffective in that game. He completes lows on 3rd down, missed quite a few open players, threw late (including the botched 2 point try). And yet the layman would look at that stat line and start making reservations for his HOF enshrinement ceremony.

Wilson SUCKED during that game and quite frankly was a major reason we lost. But his stats say otherwise.

He is an enigma. A highlight machine and model for efficiency. But barely acceptable moving the chains and with glaring holes in his ability to dissect defenses.
 

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keasley45":304jnivw said:
nutluck":304jnivw said:
It does show also that scheme matters as well for the OP. Since for example Stafford was not on that list until he ended up with McVay and started playing with a new scheme.

Scheme does make a difference. But given the plays consistently left on the field in Seattle week in and week out and the obvious failure to beat pretty simple coverages for seasons on end now, our scheme has pretty good potential for better play. We just aren't hitting the plays.

And between 2016 and 2021 on 3rd down, Stafford is still above average, where Russ comes in below the league average at 35%.
It's hard to scheme an offense with a QB who doesn't see or use all the field and never has.
 

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keasley45":14szwpcv said:
To put the myth to bed that it can't be possible for Russ to put up good stats AND be a liability, take in the following stat line:

320 for 495 (65%), 32td vs 0 interceptions, 3952 yards passing. 192 yards rushing on 32 carries (6 ypc). Passer rating of 110.

That's HOF good, right?

Well those stats are Wilson's for the WFT game this year, extrapolated over 16 games.

Wilson was maybe his most ineffective in that game. He completes lows on 3rd down, missed quite a few open players, threw late (including the botched 2 point try). And yet the layman would look at that stat line and start making reservations for his HOF enshrinement ceremony.

Wilson SUCKED during that game and quite frankly was a major reason we lost. But his stats say otherwise.

He is an enigma. A highlight machine and model for efficiency. But barely acceptable moving the chains and with glaring holes in his ability to dissect defenses.


I think it's just an example of how stats are sometimes misleading..

Every QB and player in the NFL has strengths and weakness. It's the ones who recognize the weakness in there game and address it that will be great...

It will be interesting to see how Wilson does against the Cards.. I have a hard time believing that Carroll doesn't see what your talking about as he has been coaching Wilson for 10 years,,

The question is for me will Wilson adjust? Or will he continue to justify his game?

It's going to be an interesting off season to see what happens

LTH
 

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keasley45":1pfqysj2 said:
But i dont see it as all being on Russ. What i do see is blame being pushed to Pete, or the scheme, or the OC, when there are heaps of yardage and first downs left on the field every week. And when the qb is asked why he didnt take the less difficult play, he defends going for the big shot. So if its on tape for everyone to see (and it is), If the coach is frustrated by it (and he expressed it), if the OC comes out and says that if the ball doesnt come out on time his offense doesnt work (and he has), the QB admits a preference for the big play (and he has) and the stats show that we hit the big play well because we have yards and TD's but suck at moving the chains (and they do), then all of those things line up pretty squarely with a scenario where much of what is required to fix this falls on the QB.
It's amazing that the stats, the video tape, the quotes of all the relevant individuals involved all point the same way, but--for unknown reasons--we have unending question as to what the actual problem is...


At any rate, I personally don't think Russ is too much of an enigma at this point. He's very good at certain things that are very conducive to gaudy numbers (at least the traditional ones that end up on the generic box score) and highlight ready clips for SportsCenter. It is not conducive to sustained drives or good rhythm for the offense when we don't have a strong running game anchoring it.

Therefore, for a lot of 'analysts' who don't really watch Seahawks games but instead look at the stats and then view the highlights, Russ is/was/always has been amazing. But if you watch the games on a regular basis with a critical eye, you see where the holes are in his game and the 'Pete vs. Russ' debate becomes more nuanced than 'It's easier to find a decent coach than a HOF franchise QB'.
 
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DarkVictory23":ktahcrgn said:
keasley45":ktahcrgn said:
But i dont see it as all being on Russ. What i do see is blame being pushed to Pete, or the scheme, or the OC, when there are heaps of yardage and first downs left on the field every week. And when the qb is asked why he didnt take the less difficult play, he defends going for the big shot. So if its on tape for everyone to see (and it is), If the coach is frustrated by it (and he expressed it), if the OC comes out and says that if the ball doesnt come out on time his offense doesnt work (and he has), the QB admits a preference for the big play (and he has) and the stats show that we hit the big play well because we have yards and TD's but suck at moving the chains (and they do), then all of those things line up pretty squarely with a scenario where much of what is required to fix this falls on the QB.
It's amazing that the stats, the video tape, the quotes of all the relevant individuals involved all point the same way, but--for unknown reasons--we have unending question as to what the actual problem is...


At any rate, I personally don't think Russ is too much of an enigma at this point. He's very good at certain things that are very conducive to gaudy numbers (at least the traditional ones that end up on the generic box score) and highlight ready clips for SportsCenter. It is not conducive to sustained drives or good rhythm for the offense when we don't have a strong running game anchoring it.

Therefore, for a lot of 'analysts' who don't really watch Seahawks games but instead look at the stats and then view the highlights, Russ is/was/always has been amazing. But if you watch the games on a regular basis with a critical eye, you see where the holes are in his game and the 'Pete vs. Russ' debate becomes more nuanced than 'It's easier to find a decent coach than a HOF franchise QB'.

Exactly. And the other nuanced thing about it is that no one is screaming for Russ to be gone and instead preferring years of struggling through futility to find the next 'Elite' guy.

What it is, is making an honest assessment of what we have under center and how its effecting the team's performance through his play. Seeing the flaws and realizing that they are part of the reason we struggle and have had to come back in the 4th qtr (which is Russ's bag) allows you to make a more informed decision about what needs to change. It also informs perception about what exactly we need under center to succeed. If you dont do that, yo ubefin to do irrational and unfounded things like calling for the roster to be dumped, the coaches to change, and the FO to go.

Ive said this before, our running game, contrary to popular myth, has been great this year and last. Better statistically even than our superbowl years. yet to listen to many, Its the fault of the running game that Russ struggles at times. Yet the only liability on the part of the running game is that we ditch it in favor of a passing attack that is actually average at best (statistical fact) at consistently moving the ball.

The ideal situation is that Russ and the gang finish this deal out and he retires a Hawk. But if he's going to hold the team randsome the way he has, casting blame to those around him when he's in reality far from elite as a situational passer and xs and os player, then you need to understand that situation a bit better before the talk starts about how Russ is a victim of the futility around him. And the stats prove that he shares a significant portion of the blame for our struggles.

Whats worse at this point is that when your QB draws a line and goes off reservation in objecting to coaching direction, criticism, etc. and stands on his failed approach, constantly defending it... well then you've got a different problem all together.
 

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Great thread Keasley45. You have great insight and even though I may not always agree, it's always a great thing to hear and understand differing opinions.

One observation on your orignal post, in the list of top QBs, it's interesting to see that more of the mobile types of QBs aren't on the list - Wilson, Murray, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson. Mahomes is on there and Prescott only made the list in 2019. I find that very interesting. Why do you suppose that is? At first, my thought was maybe it was their height but that gets thrown out as Jackson and Watson aren't short QBs. I'm interested in hearing your take on this.
 

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K45- great job connecting the dots with facts and stats. Your thread nailed the feeling I’ve had for a few seasons. Not everyone will except it, and that’s just the way it is. Keep up the great work.
 

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keasley45":2wf2td2n said:
There's been a lot of talk about how Pete and the offense would be lost without RW. There's no doubt that Russ is a supremely talented guy at what 'HE' does. He's a unique player and a gifted athlete and playmaker. But the fact remains that there have been holes in his game that, fortunately for us and for him, he's been able to cover over with his HOF talent. But the fact remains that the holes are still there and have been the source of much debate over the last few years as his ability to create on his own has declined. So i took some time to look at Russ's performance in isolation in the key area of passing 3rd downs. the results are below. What you'll see is that in that key area, Russ has been avg to below avg in each year over the last 4 years now.

51806409975 b81aeb1a53 zrussel stats by J_Otte, on Flickr

* - Brady and Rodgers rank shown for context regardless of being outside of the top performers[/size]

The average pass rate on 3rd down and 1 to 11 YTG across the league was 78% in 2018, 79% in 2019, and 76% in 2020 and 2021.

The avg success rate on 3rd down across the league was 40% in 2018 (Russ was at 36%), 41% (russ was at 41%) in 2019, 43% in 2020 (Russ was at 43%), and 41% in 2021 (Russ was at 36%). So Russ has achieved average play only twice in 4 years.

So the obvious thing that stands out is that despite Russel's high completion percentage, low TO ratio, long ball prowess and QBR, over the last 4 years, he's never been better than middle of the pack in terms of pass success rate on 3rd down and to go distances between 1 and 11 yards ( i didnt realize that i had the sort parameter off by a yard, but adjusting to 3rd and 10 doesnt change the result significantly ). Note that there were ties at various percentages, so the rank is +/- a few spots as the overall #of positions doesnt account for ties.

It was also notable that in 2018 and 2019 Brady's #s were surprisingly low, so i looked at where he ranked when passing on 1st and 2nd down at the same distance. His rate in 2018 was 58%, 2nd only to Brees at 62%. Rodgers, who's percentage also wasnt great on 3rd, turned out to be only 50% on 1st and 2nd down, which was in the bottom half of the league. In 2019, Brady was at 49%, also good for only bottom half of the league, while Rodgers was at 51%, good for middle of the pack. Rodgers' poor 39% rate on 3rd down in 2021 has been offset by a 55% success rate on 1st and 2nd down, 4th best rate in the league, while Brady is a tick better at 56%.

2018 was Rodgers last year with McCarthy, while 2018 and 2019 were Brady's last years with NE and a sharp decline from his 54% success rate in 2017 , 3rd best percentage, and 52% in 2016, 6th best percentage. I think its a fair assumption that the NE brass likely saw the sharp decline in Brady's numbers as a sign that maybe his time in NE was coming to an end. Notable that in 2021, Mac jones has cracked the upper ranks in terms of his 3rd pass success rating.

So given the fact that Brady's 1st and 2nd down numbers offset his poor 3rd down success rate, i took a look at how Russel faired on early downs vs 3rd down at the same down and distance. the results are below

2018 51% success rate (52% avg), between 17th and 20th overall (3 tied at 51%)
2019 54% success rate (51% avg), between 5th and 9th overall (4 tied at 54%)
2020 56% success rate (53% avg), between 8th 13th overall (5 tied at 56%)
2021 52% success rate (53% avg), between 17th and 23rd overall (6 tied at 52%)

The league avg passing on 1st and 2nd down by year:

2018 was 54% and we passed at 41%
2019 was 53% and we passed at 49%
2020 was 54% and we passed at 56%
2021 was 53% and we passed at 53%

So overall, Russel's ability to consistently move the chains with his arm is middle of the pack in the league, to below the middle of the pack, going back 4 years now. his best overall year in the past 4, passing on downs 1 through 3 was 2019, when we passed at a 49% rate on downs 1 and 2 and 75% on 3rd down (both below the league avg in terms of pass %). Going above that % or below it has seen his success rate drop.

Also worth noting is that since the start of the Let Russ Cook campaign, our running success rate on 3rd down has gone from top 5-10, to the lower half of the league, despite sporting solid rush ypc situationally and for the season.

So for all of the talk that the offense (and Pete) have benefited from Russ carrying them (its often been said that Pete is lost without Russ), the stats pretty clearly prove otherwise. When we rely on the pass to get us by and move the chains, we get far from elite play at the QB position. Russ hasnt come close to top 10 in passing on 3rd down in the last 4 years and has only been buoyed by a solid top 10 finish passing on downs 1 and 2 once in the last 4 years and that was in 2019 when our offense was most balanced.

So the conspiracy theories can churn, and the idea that we cant possibly be any better post Russ than we've been with him might be true because the guy has a special ability, but the reality is that as Russ has shouldered more of the burden and we've gone away from 'Peteball', our success has dropped sharply. our offense has become predictable in that most any good defense can stop Russ and we are failing to consistently move the chains when the ball is in his hands .

The above also supports the observation that our offense has become entirely boom or bust. if there isn't a big play to be made, we struggle mightily to be just average in making the small ones. And that is directly a reflection of our QB's style of play. Its not Waldron, its not Pete, its Russ.

And as far as whoever might be under center in the future, the bar they have to reach to surpass Russ's performance in key, measurable passing situations doesn't require 'elite' play based on the performance he's recorded now since 2018. We might miss out on the incredible comebacks that he's gifted us with over his tenure, but maybe if we were just top 10 to 15 in passing success rate, we wouldn't need the spectacular finish.

All of the above has been supported by additional digging into his performance this year relative to our success when our run pass ratio ticks below 50%.
That can be found here:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=177963

The statistical data was sourced from:



http://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situa ... -off-.html



Do you work ? I can't imagine dedicating this much time to post something like this... Hats off too you sir
 

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What a great thread! Kudos to John63 as well for engaging with data and open mind.

Basically, Russell has sucked on 3rd downs for several seasons, and it's because he has holes in his game regarding reading defenses. Russell doesn't take accountability for fixing this and Pete and OCs try to scheme around it, and Russell's QB superpowers mask the holes in his game. And Russell DOES have QB *SuperPowers*, including not turning the ball over, and his deep ball success, and used to be his elusiveness and scrambling and read-option running threat.

Russell and the offense's inability to do better on 3rd down, over the years, puts a lot of pressure on D units that haven't been elite since 2014. It's interesting that he does so well on 1st and 2nd down passing, which I take as that when there is a legit run threat defenses have to account for, Russell passes much better. When it's only Russell's passing the D has to align for, he simply doesn't do as well. In years past, he was more of a threat to scramble for first downs on 3rd and long, which masked his defense reading limitations. On 3rd and shorter, say 4 or less, the read-option threat used to be there, and caused problems for defenses.

Part of me thinks Russell has been in denial about his own limitations and didn't see them as a problem, thinking his strengths were so strong they could carry him and the team should build and scheme around those strengths. The problem is paying Russell elite top 5 money doesn't leave much cap to put the needed talent around him to properly leverage his strengths. He needs an elite "eraser" D and a smash-mouth power running game to win playoff games against good teams. Like that elite 2014 D that held GB to FGs instead of TDs and erased 5 TOs by Russell and the offense, and somehow pulled out that miraculous NFCCG win. I'd argue that Russell throwing "the pick" in SB49 was mostly a reflection of his limitations in reading defenses, never mind the horrible play-call by Bevell, that Russell had to mechanically "trust the play-call" because he wasn't that great at reading Defenses.

The upcoming Cards game will be interesting to watch, because they understand how to frustrate Russell. That overtime game a couple years ago... IMO that's where Russell being "figured out" by the rest of the NFL truly started, for teams other than the Rams, who figured out Russell years earlier. If Russell can torch the Cards on 3rd down, and completions on time that move the chains, that would be truly a sign of growth. Also, if Penny lights up the cards for 120+ yards, that will sure make things easier for Russell, and "regular" Russell plus good play by the D would be enough to win.

I am noticing Kyler Murray and Mahomes also having similar struggles to Russell. Of course, it is only teams with really good Ds and a strong pass rush and good secondary that can stop any of these 3 mobile QBs.
 

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I'm beginning to think that it's not that he can't but believes that he can pull the impossible out of a hat or maybe not impossible improbable, he has had so much success at it that he thinks it is the normal instead of the exception. Defenses have adjusted to expecting it more and making it that much more improbable, he still gets them, the Lockett catch some of the no other windows but where it is catches of everyone.

To get that back he has to lure defenses into a false sense of security thinking they have taken away his improbable, that's the seam, slants, hooks, and screens. What they give him or what match ups are our advantage.

He does that, yards, first downs, 3rd down conversions will rack up and he then can take the improbable and make it executable in the offense and with a run game make everything unpredictable.
 

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keasley45":3k1lsz0a said:
nutluck":3k1lsz0a said:
It does show also that scheme matters as well for the OP. Since for example Stafford was not on that list until he ended up with McVay and started playing with a new scheme.

Scheme does make a difference. But given the plays consistently left on the field in Seattle week in and week out and the obvious failure to beat pretty simple coverages for seasons on end now, our scheme has pretty good potential for better play. We just aren't hitting the plays.

And between 2016 and 2021 on 3rd down, Stafford is still above average, where Russ comes in below the league average at 35%.

Not disagreeing was only pointing out scheme plays a roll. I honestly think if they could retool the O-line with the type of players needed for the Waldron aka McVay style of offense and Wilson would embrace it. I think the hawks could make a deep play off run. I just question if they will bring in those pieces, Pete will keep his hands off it and Wilson will get away from going deep as much as he does.
 

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hawkfan68":dkl01kaj said:
Great thread Keasley45. You have great insight and even though I may not always agree, it's always a great thing to hear and understand differing opinions.

One observation on your orignal post, in the list of top QBs, it's interesting to see that more of the mobile types of QBs aren't on the list - Wilson, Murray, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson. Mahomes is on there and Prescott only made the list in 2019. I find that very interesting. Why do you suppose that is? At first, my thought was maybe it was their height but that gets thrown out as Jackson and Watson aren't short QBs. I'm interested in hearing your take on this.
I won't speak for Keasley, but the simplest explanation is the longer your ability to get to the house with your legs holds up from pee wee football to the NFL, the less time you spend Learning and developing the more nuanced passing skills required at the QB position. The earlier in your life you have to stop relying your legs, the better you'll be at the other stuff. The other option is to consciously forego running to develop the other stuff, but that's extremely difficult to do. 3rd down in the NFL is all about diagnosing pre and post snap with speed and executing that read. It's also the down where defenses are going to stress your pre and post snap skills the most, either with disguises, taking away time with blitzes, or both. Simple answer is the more mobile QBs aren't as proficient in that part of the game. They are getting much closer though. Guys like Russell, Mahomes, and even Kyler/Watson are much more passers than runners. Watson and Mahomes I would venture have the best chance at serious longevity.

I don't think you can overstate how much being a serious threat to convert 1st downs or more as a QB limits what looks defenses are willing to give you. Once that threat goes away, they get looks they aren't used to seeing often or at the very least, aren't used to making reads and passing against. If you're used to running against certain looks when the picture gets muddy, but now you can't and have to turn that muddy picture into the right read and getting the ball out on time, things will look like Russell against cover 2. Mahomes just went through the same thing towards the end of last season and early this year. He started being more patient and not running around trying to force things as much. That along with the Chiefs running down hill more has righted their ship
 
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keasley45

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Ambrose83":2ogx00j9 said:
keasley45":2ogx00j9 said:
Do you work ? I can't imagine dedicating this much time to post something like this... Hats off too you sir

Ha. Thanks. Yup. I work. I just decided that rather than continue to perpetuate the oft ugly, and unproductive back and forth around who's 'fault ' it is that we are struggling, I'd try to provide some more facts to help elevate the discussions to a place where at the least we aren't just standing on raw opinion, but rather more imperial data.

Sport, and 'fan'aticism are emotionally charged things, which they should be. But sport, and statistics are also fact based. Getting a clear and true picture of a thing ultimately comes down to (without bias or emotion) uncovering those facts. Sometimes the truth is a simple, linear thing. And other times, as is the case here, it's more complex. So you have to take a look at the entire picture.

It did take some time, but not nearly as much time as I've spent over the last few years arguing back and forth around what essentially gets couched as differences in 'opinion'.

We can all have our opinion as to how we feel about the team or a player. Everyone can believe what they want to believe. But there are also facts and truths that live independently of wherever we choose to align ourselves. And those facts are less maliable.

And as is the case here and often in life, the truth is a 'both, and' proposition and less an, 'either, or' one. It's pretty obvious that on the case of Mr Wilson, he is so good in certain aspects of his game that it literally overshadows his shortcomings. And just as his skills and talents have brought us great success, his flaws have also brought us failure. And for a player with his talent, who has the entire fortune of a team wrapped up in his unique, individual way of seeing and playing the game, our success depends as much, if not more on his ebs and flows, strengths and weaknesses, as they do any scheme, coach or coordinator. So you can't just guve the guy all the credit, but then pass failure to everyone else.

And that's not to say other areas of the team don't need to improve or that they don't contribute to our struggles. They absolutley do. But in our case, by virtue of who he is and how he plays, there's a lot more that is dependent on him being 'right'. So it's not that people necessarily are hating on him or attributing undo blame to him. The fact that the offense basically starts and stops, not with the playcall or scheme, but rather Russ's unique way of playing, he inherently draws ( and deserves) more criticism than another 'system' qb might. So you can't evaluate him or the offense the same way. You have to go bigger, and look deeper.

Glad I could hopefully contribute something positive in that regard.
 
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OrangeGravy":322mp978 said:
hawkfan68":322mp978 said:
Great thread Keasley45. You have great insight and even though I may not always agree, it's always a great thing to hear and understand differing opinions.

One observation on your orignal post, in the list of top QBs, it's interesting to see that more of the mobile types of QBs aren't on the list - Wilson, Murray, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson. Mahomes is on there and Prescott only made the list in 2019. I find that very interesting. Why do you suppose that is? At first, my thought was maybe it was their height but that gets thrown out as Jackson and Watson aren't short QBs. I'm interested in hearing your take on this.
I won't speak for Keasley, but the simplest explanation is the longer your ability to get to the house with your legs holds up from pee wee football to the NFL, the less time you spend Learning and developing the more nuanced passing skills required at the QB position. The earlier in your life you have to stop relying your legs, the better you'll be at the other stuff. The other option is to consciously forego running to develop the other stuff, but that's extremely difficult to do. 3rd down in the NFL is all about diagnosing pre and post snap with speed and executing that read. It's also the down where defenses are going to stress your pre and post snap skills the most, either with disguises, taking away time with blitzes, or both. Simple answer is the more mobile QBs aren't as proficient in that part of the game. They are getting much closer though. Guys like Russell, Mahomes, and even Kyler/Watson are much more passers than runners. Watson and Mahomes I would venture have the best chance at serious longevity.

I don't think you can overstate how much being a serious threat to convert 1st downs or more as a QB limits what looks defenses are willing to give you. Once that threat goes away, they get looks they aren't used to seeing often or at the very least, aren't used to making reads and passing against. If you're used to running against certain looks when the picture gets muddy, but now you can't and have to turn that muddy picture into the right read and getting the ball out on time, things will look like Russell against cover 2. Mahomes just went through the same thing towards the end of last season and early this year. He started being more patient and not running around trying to force things as much. That along with the Chiefs running down hill more has righted their ship

That's pretty much what I woukd have said. For the qbs coming into the league that are gifted with elusiveness, they've been sought out their entire careers for that unique ability and they offenses they've played in, scripted to suit their unique talents.

I'd also offer that even for the guys that are trained to be traditional pocket qbs, the number of them that go on to be soo good that they reach the ranks of Brady, Brees and Rodgers is ridiculously small. The talent that those guys have to read a defense and react the way they do isn't normal, coachable stuff. It's on par with what you'd see a savant mathematician do and every bit as remarkable a gifted skill as Lamar's ability to elude an entire defense on the way to an impossible TD run. You just can't coach it to that level.
 

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keasley45":1wx4iwip said:
OrangeGravy":1wx4iwip said:
hawkfan68":1wx4iwip said:
Great thread Keasley45. You have great insight and even though I may not always agree, it's always a great thing to hear and understand differing opinions.

One observation on your orignal post, in the list of top QBs, it's interesting to see that more of the mobile types of QBs aren't on the list - Wilson, Murray, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson. Mahomes is on there and Prescott only made the list in 2019. I find that very interesting. Why do you suppose that is? At first, my thought was maybe it was their height but that gets thrown out as Jackson and Watson aren't short QBs. I'm interested in hearing your take on this.
I won't speak for Keasley, but the simplest explanation is the longer your ability to get to the house with your legs holds up from pee wee football to the NFL, the less time you spend Learning and developing the more nuanced passing skills required at the QB position. The earlier in your life you have to stop relying your legs, the better you'll be at the other stuff. The other option is to consciously forego running to develop the other stuff, but that's extremely difficult to do. 3rd down in the NFL is all about diagnosing pre and post snap with speed and executing that read. It's also the down where defenses are going to stress your pre and post snap skills the most, either with disguises, taking away time with blitzes, or both. Simple answer is the more mobile QBs aren't as proficient in that part of the game. They are getting much closer though. Guys like Russell, Mahomes, and even Kyler/Watson are much more passers than runners. Watson and Mahomes I would venture have the best chance at serious longevity.

I don't think you can overstate how much being a serious threat to convert 1st downs or more as a QB limits what looks defenses are willing to give you. Once that threat goes away, they get looks they aren't used to seeing often or at the very least, aren't used to making reads and passing against. If you're used to running against certain looks when the picture gets muddy, but now you can't and have to turn that muddy picture into the right read and getting the ball out on time, things will look like Russell against cover 2. Mahomes just went through the same thing towards the end of last season and early this year. He started being more patient and not running around trying to force things as much. That along with the Chiefs running down hill more has righted their ship

That's pretty much what I woukd have said. For the qbs coming into the league that are gifted with elusiveness, they've been sought out their entire careers for that unique ability and they offenses they've played in, scripted to suit their unique talents.

I'd also offer that even for the guys that are trained to be traditional pocket qbs, the number of them that go on to be soo good that they reach the ranks of Brady, Brees and Rodgers is ridiculously small. The talent that those guys have to read a defense and react the way they do isn't normal, coachable stuff. It's on par with what you'd see a savant mathematician do and every bit as remarkable a gifted skill as Lamar's ability to elude an entire defense on the way to an impossible TD run. You just can't coach it to that level.
I think that gets overlooked as well. In those terms, a mobile QB has almost no chance to reach that level of mastery unless it's completely natural
 

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keasley45":35jesxr6 said:
OrangeGravy":35jesxr6 said:
hawkfan68":35jesxr6 said:
Great thread Keasley45. You have great insight and even though I may not always agree, it's always a great thing to hear and understand differing opinions.

One observation on your orignal post, in the list of top QBs, it's interesting to see that more of the mobile types of QBs aren't on the list - Wilson, Murray, Lamar Jackson, and DeShaun Watson. Mahomes is on there and Prescott only made the list in 2019. I find that very interesting. Why do you suppose that is? At first, my thought was maybe it was their height but that gets thrown out as Jackson and Watson aren't short QBs. I'm interested in hearing your take on this.
I won't speak for Keasley, but the simplest explanation is the longer your ability to get to the house with your legs holds up from pee wee football to the NFL, the less time you spend Learning and developing the more nuanced passing skills required at the QB position. The earlier in your life you have to stop relying your legs, the better you'll be at the other stuff. The other option is to consciously forego running to develop the other stuff, but that's extremely difficult to do. 3rd down in the NFL is all about diagnosing pre and post snap with speed and executing that read. It's also the down where defenses are going to stress your pre and post snap skills the most, either with disguises, taking away time with blitzes, or both. Simple answer is the more mobile QBs aren't as proficient in that part of the game. They are getting much closer though. Guys like Russell, Mahomes, and even Kyler/Watson are much more passers than runners. Watson and Mahomes I would venture have the best chance at serious longevity.

I don't think you can overstate how much being a serious threat to convert 1st downs or more as a QB limits what looks defenses are willing to give you. Once that threat goes away, they get looks they aren't used to seeing often or at the very least, aren't used to making reads and passing against. If you're used to running against certain looks when the picture gets muddy, but now you can't and have to turn that muddy picture into the right read and getting the ball out on time, things will look like Russell against cover 2. Mahomes just went through the same thing towards the end of last season and early this year. He started being more patient and not running around trying to force things as much. That along with the Chiefs running down hill more has righted their ship

That's pretty much what I woukd have said. For the qbs coming into the league that are gifted with elusiveness, they've been sought out their entire careers for that unique ability and they offenses they've played in, scripted to suit their unique talents.

I'd also offer that even for the guys that are trained to be traditional pocket qbs, the number of them that go on to be soo good that they reach the ranks of Brady, Brees and Rodgers is ridiculously small. The talent that those guys have to read a defense and react the way they do isn't normal, coachable stuff. It's on par with what you'd see a savant mathematician do and every bit as remarkable a gifted skill as Lamar's ability to elude an entire defense on the way to an impossible TD run. You just can't coach it to that level.

Thanks OrangeGravy and Keasley45. That does make a lot of sense. Which begs the question, if PC knows Wilson's weaknesses, why isn't he helping Wilson to improve those through coaching? Sounds like reading defenses is something that is coachable. You can be coached to be better at it. Of course some of the onus is on the player wanting to improve. I believe Wilson does.

As an example, IIRC, Drew Brees wasn't great his first few years but he once he was traded to New Orleans and started to work with Joe Lombardi, he improved. Maybe Wilson needs someone like a Lombardi to help him. Just a thought. I'm bringing it to coaching because, if I remember TJack also struggled with reading defenses. That was a complaint quite a bit on here about him during 2011 season when TJack was the starting QB with the Seahawks.
 
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