3-7 yards to go on 3rd/4th down SEA is 0-38 in handing off

[formido]

It doesn't matter what other teams do. What matters is what works.

It doesn't matter if fans scream. What matters is what works.

The reason Holmgren often ran the ball on 3rd and 5 is because it works.

I don't lay all, or even most, of the blame for our offensive deficiencies right now at Bevell's feet. But he deserves criticism for the things that are under his control. 0/38 is under his control, and it's not really arguable that it's a problem. Teams study tendencies. Some teams are really good at it. It is much easier to play call against a team when you know what they're going to do. Game theory isn't something folks made up to win at checkers. It's describing the actual behavior of the universe. Ignoring it is incredibly dumb.

3rd and five is a passing down. Teams are often in nickel. Getting 5 yards on the ground is easier than usual.

Here's Indy's penultimate drive, the one that sealed the game for them:

1st and 10 at IND 27 (Shotgun) T.Richardson up the middle to IND 31 for 4 yards (B.Mebane; K.Chancellor).
2nd and 6 at IND 31 (Shotgun) A.Luck pass deep left to R.Wayne pushed ob at 50 for 19 yards (W.Thurmond).
1st and 10 at 50 (Shotgun) T.Richardson left guard to SEA 45 for 5 yards (K.Wright; K.Chancellor).
2nd and 5 at SEA 45 (Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete short right to D.Heyward-Bey.
3rd and 5 at SEA 45 T.Richardson left tackle to SEA 35 for 10 yards (E.Thomas).
1st and 10 at SEA 35 (Run formation) T.Richardson up the middle to SEA 31 for 4 yards (R.Bryant; K.Wright). IND - Reitz (#76) reports as eligible
2nd and 6 at SEA 31 (Run formation) T.Richardson up the middle to SEA 34 for -3 yards (M.Bennett; K.Wright). IND - Reitz (#76) reports as eligible
3rd and 9 at SEA 34 (Shotgun) D.Brown up the middle to SEA 31 for 3 yards (B.Wagner).
4th and 6 at SEA 31 A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Overton, Holder-P.McAfee.

Notice anything interesting in there? That's why this tendency sucks. Indy isn't 0/38 and we've got a loss because of it.

It sucks in process (decision theory and probabilities) and results.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

There's quite a difference between 3rd and 3 and 3rd and 7.

How many of those 38 occasions were 3rd and 5 or greater?

And how many times do we run on 3rd and short (1-2 yards)?

 

[NJSeahawk]

There's quite a difference between 3rd and 3 and 3rd and 7.

How many of those 38 occasions were 3rd and 5 or greater?

And how many times do we run on 3rd and short (1-2 yards)?

that pic on page 1 shows that info

 

[ivotuk]

Wow, that was a great article and spot on. It's basically what I, and others have been ranting about and what was painfully obvious in the Monday Night Game, predictability and poor game planning will get your Franchise QB killed.

And it's hard to tell if Pete understands what is going on with his glib responses. Does he realize that Bevell is getting his Star QB pummelled, or is it like in the article where the author states that Bevell is relying on the talent on this team to overcome ignorant play calling?

The following statement from the article really makes me wonder about Pete and if his ego may be getting in the way of his coaching.

""We tried a million different things"... said Pete Carroll in the post-game presser. What he didn't add was that they quickly scrapped anything that seemed to work."

When asked why he had his rookie QB throwing a record number of passes, Greg Schiano replied (paraphrased) "It's the new toy syndrome, we are having so much fun with it we just keep using it."

I hope this isn't what Pete is doing, because if it is, that new toy will be totaled in short order.

Why is it that in Houston, Marshawn Lynch had to tell Russell, "Just take over the game Russ." It's because Bevell was calling the plays that led to score deficit.

Last year John Harbaugh fired his OC mid-season and won a Superbowl, maybe Pete should consider the same thing?

 

[DavidSeven]

So, is the consensus that San Francisco's OC is similarly incompetent and should be fired because they have roughly the same run-pass statistics on 3rd and 3-to-7 despite also being a run-first team?

Just making sure I know how many elite teams are being run by trash OCs at the moment.

 

[NJSeahawk]

So, is the consensus that San Francisco's OC is similarly incompetent and should be fired because they have roughly the same run-pass statistics on 3rd and 3-to-7 despite also being a run-first team?

Just making sure I know how many elite teams are being run by trash OCs at the moment.

Just two.

:sarcasm_on:

 

[12thManNorth]

I can almost guarantee Bevell doesn't know that stat. Because if he did, at least a few times and to keep teams off balance, HE'D RUN THE DAMN BALL

 

[AgentDib]

Grouping 3rd and 3 with 3rd and 7 makes zero sense. The only reason you would do it if you were writing an article about something and you couldn't find enough reasonable information to back up your arguments.

Just making sure I know how many elite teams are being run by trash OCs at the moment.

They aren't trash OC's; they just don't have as much knowledge about offensive schemes as Jason Drake at fieldgulls has. He has never called a play that failed, while Bevell calls tons of plays that fail.

 

[mrblitz]

the problem with bates was that he often dialled in those looping 'fades' to the most incapable targets. on those plays, he'd have probably had more success if he'd consistently went to the biggest/best target at going up for the ball.

moving along to bevell, it looks like he's actually getting better. at the rams game, it seemed like the offense just barely missed executing on several of what were good play calls. bevell is miles ahead of where he was in minnesota.

that game was the rams' super bowl. they played great. we won.

going forward, let's see if bevell can better get some of the synergies working within this offense; perhaps through the judicious application of derring-do, zest, zeal, and panache.

to paraphrase the immortal stephen pearcy, 'your offense will come around, just give it time'.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

Damn whats surprising is that we've handed the ball off 38 whole times on that yard point. I cant believe we haven't converted even one though. Thats unreal

 

[ivotuk]

So, is the consensus that San Francisco's OC is similarly incompetent and should be fired because they have roughly the same run-pass statistics on 3rd and 3-to-7 despite also being a run-first team?

Just making sure I know how many elite teams are being run by trash OCs at the moment.

There it's a huge difference between our offensive line and theirs, even when ours us healthy.

Iupati, 1st round success, Davis, 1st round success, can't remember the LT name but he's far better than what we have right now.

 

[chris98251]

There is also the factor of what are the strengths of the defense your lining up against. We have been getting a steady dose of stack the box and spy Wilson. Since we have yet to scheme to make teams pay for that we will keep getting it. That really effects how you can run up the gut.

 

[themunn]

Not play-action info, but some other references

Ignoring the Wilson runs because we can't be sure how many of them were designed, we're 2 for 7 on 3rd or 4th and less than 2 in the run game.

For "the best rushing team in the league", that's absolutely PATHETIC.

When you add in the Wilson runs it's 3 for 12.

If we can't convert rushing attempts on less than 2 to go with any more than a 25% ratio, why on earth would we have any success on 3-7?

Yes, I understand that the element of surprise will get you somewhere. But you can't beat people with the "element of surprise" all the time, because eventually it's not a surprise. Carroll and Cable's philosophy is "we want to be good at something, we want you to know we're going to do it, and we want to do it" on every play. The element of surprise will be kept for the times it's REALLY needed (which it hasn't been so far), because if you've not run out of 3rd and 7 all season, then you bust it out in the playoffs, then it IS a surprise.

 

[McGruff]

So, is the consensus that San Francisco's OC is similarly incompetent and should be fired because they have roughly the same run-pass statistics on 3rd and 3-to-7 despite also being a run-first team?

Just making sure I know how many elite teams are being run by trash OCs at the moment.

There it's a huge difference between our offensive line and theirs, even when ours us healthy.

Iupati, 1st round success, Davis, 1st round success, can't remember the LT name but he's far better than what we have right now.

Joe staley, 1sy round success.

 

[McGruff]

Not play-action info, but some other references

Bigger problem based on the chart is that we are 3/12 running the ball in short yardage (two or less).

That's a major problem that is all execution.

 

[Rainger]

It is obvious that Bevell has been reading the forums. Or he was sent some info from either FieldGulls or Hawkblooger. Both pointed out that Bevell was 0 for 38 using a run when we are 3rd and 3 or longer.

From my recollection today 2 times he called a run on 3rd and 3 or longer.

Took him more than 38 times in that situation and only happened after the issues were raised on the net.

Proves that the coaches hear the critique.

 

[BASF]

Iupati, 1st round success, Davis, 1st round success, can't remember the LT name but he's far better than what we have right now.

Interesting sidebar: this morning Sterling Sharpe called Russell Okung the best LT in football. I don't know if I believe it, but it was nice to hear from a talking head that isn't a buffoon. So, as soon as we get him back, the disparity won't be all that much.

 

[plyka]

It is obvious that Bevell has been reading the forums. Or he was sent some info from either FieldGulls or Hawkblooger. Both pointed out that Bevell was 0 for 38 using a run when we are 3rd and 3 or longer.

From my recollection today 2 times he called a run on 3rd and 3 or longer.

Took him more than 38 times in that situation and only happened after the issues were raised on the net.

Proves that the coaches hear the critique.

I was about to make the same post...i agree with you. I was SHOCKED on that 3rd and 6 or 7 in OT when he called on Lynch, and Lynch got him the first.

 

[NJSeahawk]

When we are that close to the TD, or a third and short...no need to start freakin', just start Beastin.