Since I know I'm going to end up getting into it anyway when people disagree with my last point, here's what Russ has working against him for the HOF, especially now that the NFL has made a conscious decision to let fewer players in:
- His volume stats are good, but not good enough to overcome everything else. He's not Top 10 in any meaningful stat right now (passing yards, TDs), and will be even further down when he's eligible in five years. Stuff like QB rating won't matter that much since the entire list is modern players (Steve Young is the only QB in the top 12 who played this century. Guys like Jimmy Garoppolo and Tua Tagovailoa are high on it. Fans like to point out how Russ' stats compare to inductees from yesteryear, but voters understand the evolution of the game, and the argument that he had a better INT percentage than Joe Namath won't hold much water.
- The accolades aren't there. He has just one All-Pro and it was second team. No MVPs, not even an MVP vote. No All-Decade. He has many Pro Bowls, which work in his favor, but those will likely become very devalued in the future now that everyone makes the Pro Bowl. I believe quite a few of the ones he does have are as an injury replacement.
- A lot of the narratives won't be friendly to him. One thing that will be discussed is how much of his one championship was him, and how much was his iconic, all-time defense that gave up just eight points to a record-setting offense in the Super Bowl. Then there's the championship-losing, if not dynasty-ending INT. Then you have the stigma from being part of one of the worst trades of all time, with the team acquiring him willing to take on the then biggest dead salary hit in history just to get rid of him, just two years later. Then there were two other teams that couldn't wait to move on from him.
I just don't see how he makes it. He might not even make it past the semifinal round.
