POLL: Seahawks Are The Best Team In The NFL

[SoulfishHawk]

I've said it a thousand times, you still gotta' lace em up.

 

[Hawknight]

We beat the Rams..I say we have a good argument for being one of the best in the NFL...if not, well, we are on our way at least. I think a few more key players and we're going to be feared by all.

 

[olyfan63]

The McVay FRams were Pete Carrool;s nemesis. YhthEy will e a tough out.
w wst lrder hsbr s ffrgndr noe.F my worthless keyboard. Sorry.
Need some sacks on Stafford finally to win.

 

[bileever]

Power rankings at nfl.com have the Seahawks at number 1, just ahead of the Rams:

NFL Power Rankings, Week 10: Seahawks and Rams soar into top 2 spots amid major midseason shakeup

After seeing each of his top four teams lose on Sunday, Eric Edholm executes a major midseason shakeup in the Power Rankings, starting at the very top. Do Sam Darnold's Seahawks claim the No. 1 spot?

www.nfl.com

After this, and the announcers gushing over the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, I guess we'll have to stop complaining about the national media ignoring Seattle.

 

[SocialParasite]

Power rankings at nfl.com have the Seahawks at number 1, just ahead of the Rams:

NFL Power Rankings, Week 10: Seahawks and Rams soar into top 2 spots amid major midseason shakeup

After seeing each of his top four teams lose on Sunday, Eric Edholm executes a major midseason shakeup in the Power Rankings, starting at the very top. Do Sam Darnold's Seahawks claim the No. 1 spot?

www.nfl.com

After this, and the announcers gushing over the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, I guess we'll have to stop complaining about the national media ignoring Seattle.

It's been a long time since the Seahawks were #1 in anyone's power rankings.

 

[CouchLogic]

JS can't build a roster.

 

[Wsumatt1982]

NFL Power Rankings, Week 10: Seahawks and Rams soar into top 2 spots amid major midseason shakeup

After seeing each of his top four teams lose on Sunday, Eric Edholm executes a major midseason shakeup in the Power Rankings, starting at the very top. Do Sam Darnold's Seahawks claim the No. 1 spot?

www.nfl.com

The timestamp on this article is less than an hour ago.

 

[flv2]

They are a function of the sportsbook making themselves the most money possible. The opening lines are based on statistical modeling of thousands of inputs including but not limited to previous win %, DVOA, head coach records, home field advantage, playoff record, recent wins, quality of wins, weather, injuries, rest time, proprietary rankings, etc. The lines shift based on public wagers.

For example, the early line this Sunday for Seattle vs AZ is Seattle -6.5. This means Vegas is spotting AZ 6.5 points. If Seattle only wins by a FG, the wager still loses. This is basically saying Seattle is favored, and for the wager to payout, Seattle needs to win by at least 7. The expectation is that Seattle will win this match up, and they are making it harder for bettors to win. Money line bets hardly pay anything so you have to win against this spread.

Conversely the books are not going to "spot" a team extra points that they think will lose, because they themselves would lose a ton of money when the sharks and whales bet on the team that is expected to win. In this case, Seattle.

In the Rams match up, they are effectively "spotting" Seattle 4.5 points because their expectation based on their modeling is that the Rams will win (as of right now).

Home field adjusts win probability. Win probability adjusts the spread. Spread points are not of equal value. Thus: It doesn't "adjust 2-3 points for their homefield".

A spread of -4.5 points would be based on a win probability of around 66% with the opponents winning 38%, (104% total which includes the sportsbook's profit margin). The Rams home field advantage in a comparatively small factor, maybe 3%. Thus moving the game to a neutral venue would change the Rams win probability to about 63%. That would change the spread to -3 with the Rams -120 and the Seahawks +100.

Moving the game from a neutral venue to Seattle would move the win from 63% to around 56% because the Seahawks home field advantage is a much bigger factor than the Rams home field advantage. That would move the spread to something like -2.5 Rams -120 and Seahawks +100.

It doesn't mean that the Rams 3% home field advantage is worth 1.5 points or that the Seahawks 7% home field advantage is only worth 0.5 points. The probability of a 4 point win is about 1.5% whilst a 3 point win is about a 9% chance.

This outdated Spreads Converted to Expected Win Percentage chart might help you see the win probability/spread relationship more clearly.

 

[Double Tribble]

Until we own our home field like we used to, it's hard to see as as #1. There is time to make that happen however.

 

[Double Tribble]

JS can't build a roster.

He's too short and can't see over the line.