High expectations are partly due to fans wanting to believe our talent level is better than it is, and partly due to overrating the differences in scheme between modern NFL teams. NFL teams quickly copy whatever is working for other teams. Kirwan used to talk about how innovations were generally effective for four games, as during the year teams generally focused on the last four games for scouting. The 2008 Dolphins were outliers and managed to get a full season out of the wildcat; up until they got dismantled by the Ravens in the playoffs and then everybody learned how to stop it over that off-season.
Consider that any of our opponents could have access to Macdonald's playbook from the Ravens last year or at Michigan if they want it, but it isn't some secret formula. Every NFL defense these days relies on multiple fronts, attempts to disguise their coverages pre-snap, uses read-react keys for the LBs, and generally tries to confuse the QB. There are minor philosophical differences; the Fangio system is often labeled back to front with more focus on the safeties football IQ, while Macdonald's system seems to put more focus on the ILBs football IQ. Macdonald also tends to have less down linemen in passing situations but that's also been a
trend league wide over the last four seasons or so. The scheme wasn't the main problem last year and it isn't the problem this year; player talent and execution is always at least 80% of the answer in my view.
I'm not concerned that Macdonald doesn't have CEO strengths yet. That's to be expected when you hire a young coordinator who has never been the head at any level. It's the kind of thing you can learn with experience and mentorship as long as you aren't too arrogant, and Macdonald seems to be saying the right kind of things so far. He probably does need to get Grubb down out of the booth and spend more time on gameday looking at all three phases of the team.
It is worrisome that Spoon seems to have taken several steps back this year. That that may be a case of trying to make him into something that he isn't, rather than putting our #5 overall pick in the best situation to succeed. More optimistically it's just a steep learning curve, and more pessimistically Spoon isn't as good as we we were all hoping. How he plays during the remainder of this season is important.
I don't think John has the cushion to fire his new coaching hire after one season, and if Macdonald is one and done that's most likely because we brought in a new GM who wants to start fresh. Even then, the more likely outcome is that the new GM would give Macdonald one season to prove himself.
