Draft kings now favors sf by 9.5

[FresnoHawk52]

10? Strange, I just looked it up and it said 8.5. Maybe depends on the site or where you'd place some bets. If I could find 10, I'd jump on the Hawks +10

The big shops set a line, then the professionals bet it within an hour then they adjust it.

The guys that make the line are often wrong they depend on the professionals to bet the line to its proper place. Both sides benefit the Pros get a limited amount on the game and the Books reset the line in their favor then take in far larger amounts of cash on a favorable spread.

There arn’t a lot of big betting winning Pros in our World they’re banned from betting everywhere especially in USA betting sites. The large overseas Bookmakers allow them to bet so they can produce a strong lines.

 

[Hawkpower]

yep watched the whole thing. that team is loaded and will post at least 10 wins this season

Ok, but being loaded and winning 10 games are two different things

Thats barely a step up from .500 these days

The Seahawks may push for 8-10 wins and they are far from loaded....or "elite"

The niners are a decent team, but with Lance at QB they arent 10 pts better than Seattle

 

[flv2]

...It's the equivalent of being 6.5 underdogs at a neutral site or 3.5 underdogs at home...

No, no, no, and a thousand times NO!!!

 

[flv2]

For now i'll assume the original odds link was removed for promoting 1 specific site. US legal Sportsbook odds can be found here:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/?date=2022-09-18

US facing offshore Sportsbook odds can be found here:

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/odds/

 

[FattyKnuckle]

I didn’t know they still gifted the home team a three point advantage for merely being at home. I thought that had gone away.

Still tho in the Bears game the 49ers ol was a turnstile. The same young players did the same thing in preseason. And Elijah Mitchell their no 1 rb is now hurt, and Kittle is not expected back either.

I still think theyre favored to win, but by 10?

Again, it's not what they think one team will beat another team by. It's what they think people will bet that one team will beat another by.

 

[FattyKnuckle]

No, no, no, and a thousand times NO!!!

Please elaborate.

 

[pmedic920]

Fine mods. Here’s where I got the link from.

NFC West-leading Seahawks open as road underdogs at 49ers

Your best source for quality Seattle Seahawks news, rumors, analysis, stats and scores from the fan perspective.

www.fieldgulls.com

Nothing wrong with the post, it’s great info, and opens a good conversation.

It’s not personal, we just don’t allow active links like that without prior approval. This is nothing new.

 

[flv2]

Please elaborate.

For simplicity, (using equally fuzzy math): the probability of a team winning by exactly 1 point is about 2.3%. The probability of a team winning by exactly 2 points is about 1.8%. The probability of a team winning by exactly 3 points is about 8.8%. The probability of a home win is about 6%. The spread is created by moving the value of probabilities of winning from 1 side of the line to the other. A 52.3% vs 47.7% favourite would be a 1.5 point favourite. A 54.1% vs 45.9% favourite would be a 2.5 point favourite. For the 54.1% favourite to change from a 2.5 pont favourite to a 3.5 point favourite they need to become a 62.9% favourite.

In practice: If a team with a natural 5.5% advantage also had home field advantage they be around 61.5% With the spread at 3 the line would be close to Home -3 @ -122; Road +3 @ +102. That would be close to the 3.5 spread side of 8.8% probability. Move the game to a neutral venue and the 6% advantage would disappear. The line changes to Home -3 @ +102; Road +3 @ -122 because it's still within the 8.8% spread band but it's now close to the 2.5 spread side.

The key point is that the values for each margin of victory are NOT the same. Thus accounting for home field advantage won't move the line by a points specific margin. If the line started at the far side of 3 it will move 0 points to the near side of 3. If the line started at the near side of 3 it will move 3 points to 0. If the line started at -2 for the home team it would move 4 points to -2 for the original road team.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Betting drives line movement, so if a ton of people put money on SF, they'll move the line in SEA's favor. Depending on which site you go to, they'll have slightly different lines depending on how much money is being placed where.

At the end of the day, the sportsbook's goal is have a 50/50 split on each side of a bet, so the house never loses and they make their money on the fees/vig. e.g. a $110 bet pays 100, so the house always gets $10.

The line actually is at 10 now. It’s interesting to see whether it will rise any more.

 

[andyh64000]

I saw -10 -115. I wonder if this is largest spread for an 0-1 team to be favored over a 1-0 team.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

I saw -10 -115. I wonder if this is largest spread for an 0-1 team to be favored over a 1-0 team.

gb chicago Has similar odds

 

[Shanegotyou11]

Jimmy will be QB by week 4.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

Seattle is getting no respect from anybody.ok... they want to give me money ill take Seattle and 9.5 geeze thats easy money.

 

[flv2]

I saw -10 -115. I wonder if this is largest spread for an 0-1 team to be favored over a 1-0 team.

6 of the 7 biggest favourites in Week 2 are teams that lost in Week 1.

 

[Chukarhawk]

Ok, but being loaded and winning 10 games are two different things

Thats barely a step up from .500 these days

The Seahawks may push for 8-10 wins and they are far from loaded....or "elite"

The niners are a decent team, but with Lance at QB they arent 10 pts better than Seattle

the niners have a massive amount of talent on their roster. The seahawks? not so much. Agreed on Lance. They are going to pull the band aid off and let the kid grow. He definitely shows flashes of brilliance

 

[jlwaters1]

The Seahawks are 14-2 against the 49ers since 2014, but sure the 49ers are 9 point favorites . Also consider that the Seahawks rarely lose by more than 7. This game if won by the 49ers will most likely be a 1-4 point difference.

 

[AROS]

Given what we have all seen in Week 1, 9.5 is silly. It should be 3.5 or something like that. Whatevs. I have yet to contemplate this week's Fearless Prediction but this ain't gonna be no blow out.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

I dont see where the 9.5 is coming from. what do they know that we dont or are they just stupid? I dont get it... having a hard time pulling the trigger on this one.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

They must be thinking Seattle played over their head vs Denver now on the road vs SF is a prove it game being that most of the country is underestimating the Seahawks level of talent .but specifically the ability of Carroll to frame up the game to his players to have the proper perspective to win on the road after an emotional win...

 

[Fade]

Normally I would agree with this spread. The Seahawks won their Superbowl and now have to go out on the road on short rest. But Trey Lance is all over the place and could produce any number of outcomes.

Some on that team still want Jimmy to start. Trey was sacked in the 2nd half and both McGlinchey and Trent Williams were standing right next to him as he lay on the ground. They looked at him, didn't help him up, and trotted off the field.