kearly
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Before I start, I need to mention at the top that both Carolina and Seattle are significantly different teams today than they were back in week 6, so I'm not sure how much predictive power this post will have. But still, looking into the numbers in the Panthers game... it was a lot weirder than I remembered it being.
Back in week 6, Carolina beat Seattle 27-23. Even though Seattle led by two scores at one point, it felt like a totally legit win by Carolina. Carolina outgained Seattle by 49 yards, they won time of possession, and they won the first down battle by an astounding 25-14 margin. The Panthers had almost as many rushing first downs (10) as Seattle had total first downs.
So obviously, this result must have happened because Cam was hot right? Well, not exactly. His passer rating for the game was a Sanchezian 65.6, and none of his stats looked good. Low completion rate, relatively low YPA, and he threw two picks against 1 TD. And his one TD came on an infamous coverage breakdown. Newton was also sacked three times and rushed for only 30 yards. Devin Funchess led all Carolina WRs with just 24 receiving yards.
So if it wasn't the passing game, then it had to be Stewart steamrolling the Hawks without Wagner right? Well, the answer there is also a surprising no. Stewart averaged a surprisingly low 3.9 yards per carry, and his longest carry of the game was just 11 yards. Carolina did reach 145 yards rushing which is an excellent number, but they only made it so high due to a huge number of rush attempts thanks to having so many first downs.
So obviously, the Panthers must have had a great game on 3rd down right? Well... actually not really. Their 4/11 third down conversion rate (36.4%) is below the NFL average.
At this point I'm starting to get baffled. Maybe Carolina was gifted an avalanche of first downs by penalty? Nope, Carolina was only gifted one first down by penalty. Seattle was penalized 7 times overall for 48 total yards, both are numbers that Pete would probably take most weeks.
Maybe they racked up some desperation 4th down conversions? Nope, they went 0/1 on 4th down.
The simple amazing truth is that Carolina was very poor at QB play, and basically average at RB play, and still found a way to convert an unbelievable 20 first downs on 1st or 2nd down.
So how is this possible to get such amazing production with such feeble numbers across the board?
They did it by bunching that production into bursts in a remarkable way. Carolina averaged 80 yards per drive on their 4 TD drives, but on all other non-kneel down drives - 8 of them - the Panthers averaged just 7.9 (!) yards per drive while also throwing two picks.
It should also be noted that two of those 80 yard TD drives happened in the final 8 minutes back when Seattle was infamous for blowing 4th quarter leads.
I'm not trying to diminish what the Panthers did. Yards all count the same when you are playing in a tight football game. But what did give me comfort was just how odd and seemingly unrepeatable that kind of a performance is. To get your ass handed to you in epic fashion in 8 of 12 drives, but score 80 yard TD drives four times. 63 yards total over 8 drives. 320 yards total in the other 4 drives. That is nuts.
It makes me wonder how Carolina's offense might do in a rematch where the game flow is not nearly so unusual.
Back in week 6, Carolina beat Seattle 27-23. Even though Seattle led by two scores at one point, it felt like a totally legit win by Carolina. Carolina outgained Seattle by 49 yards, they won time of possession, and they won the first down battle by an astounding 25-14 margin. The Panthers had almost as many rushing first downs (10) as Seattle had total first downs.
So obviously, this result must have happened because Cam was hot right? Well, not exactly. His passer rating for the game was a Sanchezian 65.6, and none of his stats looked good. Low completion rate, relatively low YPA, and he threw two picks against 1 TD. And his one TD came on an infamous coverage breakdown. Newton was also sacked three times and rushed for only 30 yards. Devin Funchess led all Carolina WRs with just 24 receiving yards.
So if it wasn't the passing game, then it had to be Stewart steamrolling the Hawks without Wagner right? Well, the answer there is also a surprising no. Stewart averaged a surprisingly low 3.9 yards per carry, and his longest carry of the game was just 11 yards. Carolina did reach 145 yards rushing which is an excellent number, but they only made it so high due to a huge number of rush attempts thanks to having so many first downs.
So obviously, the Panthers must have had a great game on 3rd down right? Well... actually not really. Their 4/11 third down conversion rate (36.4%) is below the NFL average.
At this point I'm starting to get baffled. Maybe Carolina was gifted an avalanche of first downs by penalty? Nope, Carolina was only gifted one first down by penalty. Seattle was penalized 7 times overall for 48 total yards, both are numbers that Pete would probably take most weeks.
Maybe they racked up some desperation 4th down conversions? Nope, they went 0/1 on 4th down.
The simple amazing truth is that Carolina was very poor at QB play, and basically average at RB play, and still found a way to convert an unbelievable 20 first downs on 1st or 2nd down.
So how is this possible to get such amazing production with such feeble numbers across the board?
They did it by bunching that production into bursts in a remarkable way. Carolina averaged 80 yards per drive on their 4 TD drives, but on all other non-kneel down drives - 8 of them - the Panthers averaged just 7.9 (!) yards per drive while also throwing two picks.
It should also be noted that two of those 80 yard TD drives happened in the final 8 minutes back when Seattle was infamous for blowing 4th quarter leads.
I'm not trying to diminish what the Panthers did. Yards all count the same when you are playing in a tight football game. But what did give me comfort was just how odd and seemingly unrepeatable that kind of a performance is. To get your ass handed to you in epic fashion in 8 of 12 drives, but score 80 yard TD drives four times. 63 yards total over 8 drives. 320 yards total in the other 4 drives. That is nuts.
It makes me wonder how Carolina's offense might do in a rematch where the game flow is not nearly so unusual.