Turnovers

We are +1 on the season. This is bad for a team that emphasizes this so much. This gives our offense less opportunities and hurts on field position battle. Subtle but very important things for this team. I am waiting for our defense to have a breakout turnover game. As a fan I love it because it is and exciting play and demoralizing to the other team. The lack of interceptions (only 4) is especially disturbing since it feels like teams are throwing on us more and with more success (see William's). What is your take on why we are so deficient on this. Earlier in the season Pete passed it off as luck and that things will come in bunches. I am still not seeing it...

At some point there will be a reversion to the median and the TOs will come. The balls sure haven't bounced the Hawks way so far this year. Maybe there is missing level of physicality that needs to be stepped up?

Do we think that other teams don't emphasize this, too? Are we somehow better than every team we've played? I have a hard time thinking that we'll always win this battle even if PC makes a point of it. Other teams are too, and doing all they can to not turn it over against us. +1 sounds like very close to the league median to me.

jammerhawk":3bnha605 said:

At some point there will be a reversion to the median and the TOs will come. The balls sure haven't bounced the Hawks way so far this year. Maybe there is missing level of physicality that needs to be stepped up?

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Just because there is a Median does NOT mean that every team will work there way to it. It is a observation point not a rule. If this were true why is it that the Patriots are not having bad seasons working there way to the "median". Some teams live above and some teams live below. We have been living above the median in the Pete era. Maybe physicality is part of the reason why but I don't think that is the whole reason.

Ad Hawk":3bnha605 said:

Do we think that other teams don't emphasize this, too? Are we somehow better than every team we've played? I have a hard time thinking that we'll always win this battle even if PC makes a point of it. Other teams are too, and doing all they can to not turn it over against us. +1 sounds like very close to the league median to me.

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The past few years we HAVE been better than most teams we have played and been in the top of the league in turnover ratio. I do feel it is important for our team and may be a little more than others teams (not that no one else works on it or finds it important). Once again is there a reason we have to work towards the median? The past few years teams have tried not to turn it over against us but we have still prevailed. Not a new thing. Why the difference this year?

Maybe the answer is just luck but I am not a big believer in the false god called luck. I am just curious if anyone here has any good theories.

It is most definitely concerning. I think a lot of it has to be attributed to coach Richard being the NEW DC and all that comes along with his learning curve, as well as just plain old misfortune. Add in a HEAVY dose of Cary Williams, Kam's 2 game hibernation and, as stated, teams scheming against us. Plus, keeping the fire lit after 3 strong years w/ TWO Super Bowls appearances. Things 'should' heat up, but this is the NFL, just have to be stronger in other areas. By next season we should be back to form...hopefully things start falling into place on our playoff push.
The Carolina cats sure do seem to get it.

Sunday will be a GREAT starting point! *fingers crossed*

Year of The Hawk":3ajdaxc2 said:

jammerhawk":3ajdaxc2 said:

At some point there will be a reversion to the median and the TOs will come. The balls sure haven't bounced the Hawks way so far this year. Maybe there is missing level of physicality that needs to be stepped up?

Click to expand...

Just because there is a Median does NOT mean that every team will work there way to it. It is a observation point not a rule. If this were true why is it that the Patriots are not having bad seasons working there way to the "median". Some teams live above and some teams live below. We have been living above the median in the Pete era. Maybe physicality is part of the reason why but I don't think that is the whole reason.

Ad Hawk":3ajdaxc2 said:

Do we think that other teams don't emphasize this, too? Are we somehow better than every team we've played? I have a hard time thinking that we'll always win this battle even if PC makes a point of it. Other teams are too, and doing all they can to not turn it over against us. +1 sounds like very close to the league median to me.

Click to expand...

The past few years we HAVE been better than most teams we have played and been in the top of the league in turnover ratio. I do feel it is important for our team and may be a little more than others teams (not that no one else works on it or finds it important). Once again is there a reason we have to work towards the median? The past few years teams have tried not to turn it over against us but we have still prevailed. Not a new thing. Why the difference this year?

Maybe the answer is just luck but I am not a big believer in the false god called luck. I am just curious if anyone here has any good theories.

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Given the success the Defence at forcing turnover for past 5 seasons for them to suddenly be in a reverse position relative to the norm argues strongly in favour of believing that the turnovers will come to them in due course.

For sure it s a reality that other teams focus upon ball security when playing Seattle because of the ball hawking Seattle attempts. however most all of the same personnel is still playing for Seattle and for them to not being getting turnovers at a similar rate to their historical average indicates that a reversion to the norm is possibly likely, or that something has significantly changed that is preventing this otherwise highly successful group from getting turnovers. I haven't observed any significant changes that should work against the team however every year is different and the ball sometimes just doesn't bounce your way.

I think like Pete that the turnovers will eventually come.

Well, since we've been winning games where we lose the TO battle and losing games where we win it, I think we should toss a few more INT's to improve our W/L record, or maybe teach Rawls to put a few balls on the ground.

:sarcasm_off:

Funny, however it's not supposed to work that way.

jammerhawk":2g343e0g said:

At some point there will be a reversion to the median and the TOs will come. The balls sure haven't bounced the Hawks way so far this year. Maybe there is missing level of physicality that needs to be stepped up?

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The "reversion to the median" has happened already and we are experiencing it this season.

jammerhawk":2lr06ro3 said:

At some point there will be a reversion to the median and the TOs will come. The balls sure haven't bounced the Hawks way so far this year. Maybe there is missing level of physicality that needs to be stepped up?

Click to expand...

What you're referring to is "reversion to the mean", not median. Mean and median are two different things, and median isn't used in this way.

The use of this theory in this case is a terrible logical fallacy, implying causation and demonstrating complete disregard for complex systems or the data sampling.

While the defense hasn't reverted to the mean, they've been in position to make plays and just haven't. You get teams that build a positive momentum and confidence about certain things, and then you have our defense this year. I don't see them playing with the same confidence. We're not making plays, and like someone above said, the other team is trying to make plays too. It comes down to who wants it more, and this year there doesn't seem to be that hunger and drive.

To a certain extent, it has to do with random luck, but most of the time the defensive player has to make a play. The last few years, we've made it. I'm not certain we regain that mentality this year. Also, the offense is turning the ball over more than average (for us). Wilson has more picks than usual.

bmorepunk":3na5w90p said:

jammerhawk":3na5w90p said:

At some point there will be a reversion to the median and the TOs will come. The balls sure haven't bounced the Hawks way so far this year. Maybe there is missing level of physicality that needs to be stepped up?

Click to expand...

What you're referring to is "reversion to the mean", not median. Mean and median are two different things, and median isn't used in this way.

The use of this theory in this case is a terrible logical fallacy, implying causation and demonstrating complete disregard for complex systems or the data sampling.

Click to expand...

Yeah, pretty much all of that.
I tend to think there is a cause behind the data, or, more likely, a combination of several causes. I suppose the short version is we are forcing fewer turnovers and committing more. I know... let's blame Bevell!

Actually, the O-line chaos is clearly responsible for some of the additional TO's by our offense--Russell's sack-fumble against Detroit being one poster child among several.

Why is our defense getting fewer TO's--probably has something to do with DB injuries, and a secondary that's not as lockdown as years past. Possibly a little less DL pressure too, but mostly the secondary issues. No Jeremy Lane, no Tharald Simon, no Marcus Burley, Richard Sherman less than himself, Kam's holdout, etc.

So IMO the cause behind the data boils down to our two huge problem area position groups, OL and DBs. Both situations appear to be improving as players get healthy and return, or simply gain experience, in the OL situation.

Speaking of data... does anyone have TO breakdowns of 2013 and 2014 seasons, for us and opponents, they can share here? Especially picks, which we have only 4 picks total this year, IIRC.

I suspect the low number of TOs the defense has generated might be at least partially caused by playing against some of the best and hottest QBs in the modern era, at least the picks. Not sure if the fumble number is down, but I know the ints have been fewer this season. We've dropped a few, of course, so that's on the players themselves and I'm sure they'll say the same thing, but all in all, we've been playing some guys with excellent career numbers.

Doubled our picks for the season in one game!

olyfan63":2tyyduvq said:

Doubled our picks for the season in one game!

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And finally won a game that we won the TO battle in, too. The universe is realigning as it should be. :th2thumbs:

Well I guess things do come in bunches. Pete was right. That is why he is coach and I am not even fit to be waterboy