Wilson's First 3 Years Are Arguably the Best in NFL History

[Willyeye]

Hey Willyeye,

Humor me here; what are your thoughts on the importance of a receiver's ability to draw double-team coverage?

:sherlock:

It's hard to say with Wilson as QB, but probably less important than for other QB's...Harvin was supposed to be that guy, but whether Harvin was a poor fit, or Bevell wasn't the best at making Harvin the focus of the offense, we really haven't seen how important having a receiver that draws double coverage is for Wilson and the Seahawks. Of course, Wilson's and Lynch's running games pretty much demand as much coverage as a receiver that draws double-coverage. I guess having Graham this year will answer this question. I believe that Graham will be a great fit with the Hawks offense, unlike Harvin. Graham will definitely draw some double coverages. Ask me this question again in December.

 

[Willyeye]

It's obviously because we have a good defense. I mean, the defense is totally responsible for everything Wilson has done on the offensive side of the ball, right ?

Sarcasm aside, I like what Scotte said. Wilson has benefitted from having Lynch behind him, but you play with what you're dealt, and Wilson has made the best of everything he's been given. People make a big deal about Luck's lack of a supporting cast, but most of the time Luck has been a QB, his OL has ranked better in pass protection than Wilson's. Also, it's hard to argue that Wilson has a great supporting cast on the offensive side of the ball.

Seriously, outside of Lynch, what skill positions do we have (or had) that are honestly above league average ? I'd argue Miller, Tate and Rice....and Rice only for stretches. He doesn't have elite weapons. It's honestly amazing how efficient he's been with the guys he's been throwing the ball to. Yea, some of that can be attributed to having a good running game, but only some of it.

The most encouraging stat I saw in that list was the comparison to Brady's stats. I honestly didn't think they were that low. After the last Superbowl, Brady is considered the GOAT.....but look at where he started. Wilson and Brady do have some common traits, and they start with work ethic and a desire to be the best. Wilson isn't like Stafford, who refuses to address flaws in his game. Many of us can find flaws and areas to improve in Wilson's game, and I'm betting he's already addressed those and is working hard to improve. He's probably found a few we didn't.

I'm not a fan of the max contact everyone of the media is espousing that Wilson will get. On our team, I'm not sure he's worth the most in terms of winning, but he's sure up there. But looking at those stats as a whole, it's hard not to argue he's worth a good 20 mil/year.

I agree with all of this ^

Especially I agree that Wilson will likely not be the highest paid player in the NFL. Having arguably the best first three years of any QB is a far cry from being the best of all time or even the best QB currently in the NFL. Wilson's passing leaves a lot of room for improvement, although his ability to run makes up for some of those passing deficiencies. But if he signs a 6, 7 or 8-year contract, will his legs still carry him in 5 or 6 years the way they do now? At some point, he needs to get over the hump and become a real passer, capable of leading the team without running. I believe he can and will, but I'm not the one making offers to/negotiating with Russ' agent.

 

[Tical21]

His efficiency is off the charts. But has any team passed less often in the last three years than the Seahawks? Not necessarily Russell's fault, but I kind of think this stat alone would disqualify anyone, Seahawk or not, from being the best in NFL history at something.

It kind of sounds like you are not a fan of the Seahawks style of football. The ultimate goal in football is to win games, not to see who can attempt the most passes. Andrew Luck has the most passing attempts in the last three years, and how many SB appearances has it got him? And that is a fact, even given the fact that Luck's schedule has been full of far weaker defenses than has Wilson's schedule over the last three years.

How in the world do you draw the conclusion that I'm not a fan of our style of football? I'm a former wishbone lineman from the sticks. I don't care what kind of stats the quarterback gets.

I'm simply saying we put less on Russell's shoulders than just about any QB in football. And because of this, there is only so much credit you can give him.

Shaq Thompson averaged 7.5 YPC in college. So he's arguably one of the best in college football history, right?

 

[HawkFan72]

Great post, Willyeye.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Hey Willyeye,

Humor me here; what are your thoughts on the importance of a receiver's ability to draw double-team coverage?

:sherlock:

It's hard to say with Wilson as QB, but probably less important than for other QB's...Harvin was supposed to be that guy, but whether Harvin was a poor fit, or Bevell wasn't the best at making Harvin the focus of the offense, we really haven't seen how important having a receiver that draws double coverage is for Wilson and the Seahawks. Of course, Wilson's and Lynch's running games pretty much demand as much coverage as a receiver that draws double-coverage. I guess having Graham this year will answer this question. I believe that Graham will be a great fit with the Hawks offense, unlike Harvin. Graham will definitely draw some double coverages. Ask me this question again in December.

I don't think it's so much having a receiver that draws double coverage, as a receiver that Wilson can trust to go up and successfully get a ball in tight coverage.

Even with average receivers Russell will throw it into tight coverage accurately hoping his receiver can make a play.

Graham will most definitely have a higher success rate with this than guys like Baldwin, Kearse and Willson.

 

[Popeyejones]

Wilson has had the benefit of being in a very good situation for his first three years. I don't think admitting that takes any shine off his accomplishments. His clutch moments can't be taught, and there are times he looks like the best QB and athlete all in one, but he has had a great nest to grow in.

He won a job as a rookie, a job he began to win his first minicamp, when Pete started gushing about him. How many of the 32 teams would have slowed their roll on the rook and had him ride pine to learn just because? Probably at least 30 of them.

Like it or not, he benefits from Lynch, who genuinely scares defenses like few backs in history. Now, Lynch is not touching the ball every snap, Wilson makes plenty of plays that do not include Lynch, but what a good situation for a QB.

Wilson holds the ball and scrambles needlessly sometimes. It leads to both errors and spectacular big plays. Countless coaches would try to get him to eliminate the ad lib side of his game, but Pete encourages it at times. What a good situation for a QB.

Great post.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

His efficiency is off the charts. But has any team passed less often in the last three years than the Seahawks? Not necessarily Russell's fault, but I kind of think this stat alone would disqualify anyone, Seahawk or not, from being the best in NFL history at something.

It kind of sounds like you are not a fan of the Seahawks style of football. The ultimate goal in football is to win games, not to see who can attempt the most passes. Andrew Luck has the most passing attempts in the last three years, and how many SB appearances has it got him? And that is a fact, even given the fact that Luck's schedule has been full of far weaker defenses than has Wilson's schedule over the last three years.

How in the world do you draw the conclusion that I'm not a fan of our style of football? I'm a former wishbone lineman from the sticks. I don't care what kind of stats the quarterback gets.

I'm simply saying we put less on Russell's shoulders than just about any QB in football. And because of this, there is only so much credit you can give him.

Shaq Thompson averaged 7.5 YPC in college. So he's arguably one of the best in college football history, right?

"Less on his shoulders," like his record amount of game winning drives, when Bevell's masterful game plans failed? Yeah, he definitely has less on his shoulders. How about 2013, when he almost single-handedly pulled plays out of his nether region, with ZERO protection, for most of the season?

Yup, nothing on those shoulders. He's just a wallflower that can be easily replaced.

 

[Tical21]

His efficiency is off the charts. But has any team passed less often in the last three years than the Seahawks? Not necessarily Russell's fault, but I kind of think this stat alone would disqualify anyone, Seahawk or not, from being the best in NFL history at something.

It kind of sounds like you are not a fan of the Seahawks style of football. The ultimate goal in football is to win games, not to see who can attempt the most passes. Andrew Luck has the most passing attempts in the last three years, and how many SB appearances has it got him? And that is a fact, even given the fact that Luck's schedule has been full of far weaker defenses than has Wilson's schedule over the last three years.

How in the world do you draw the conclusion that I'm not a fan of our style of football? I'm a former wishbone lineman from the sticks. I don't care what kind of stats the quarterback gets.

I'm simply saying we put less on Russell's shoulders than just about any QB in football. And because of this, there is only so much credit you can give him.

Shaq Thompson averaged 7.5 YPC in college. So he's arguably one of the best in college football history, right?

"Less on his shoulders," like his record amount of game winning drives, when Bevell's masterful game plans failed? Yeah, he definitely has less on his shoulders. How about 2013, when he almost single-handedly pulled plays out of his nether region, with ZERO protection, for most of the season?

Yup, nothing on those shoulders. He's just a wallflower that can be easily replaced.

Russ isn't asked to pass often, relatively. And of those time he is asked to pass, the defense is anticipating run more and defending the pass less often than they are for any other quarterback. There are 28 QB's in the NFL that would love to change their situation for his, and 20+ that would have won at least one Superbowl with our roster in the last three years.

 

[Tical21]

This is stupid. I get to play the role of bashing Russell Wilson, which is never my intention. I like Russell a lot, but the level of legend he receives often doesn't match what happens on the field.

 

[Uncle Si]

This is stupid. I get to play the role of bashing Russell Wilson, which is never my intention. I like Russell a lot, but the level of legend he receives often doesn't match what happens on the field.

Think of who you are responding to Tical...(the OP, I mean)

 

[Year of The Hawk]

This is a TEAM sport. No great player has ever succeeded in a vacuum. Yes Russ has a great defense and Lynch but what about his front line. What about his "hall of fame" receivers? I guess non ov ghe ohter greats had anything else on there teams to help them out..... I find it silly for people to make flat out judgements on comparing players. Especially players from different eras. Let just say the kid is a top tier QB and I would love to have him on the team as long as possible. He makes the hawks a better team.

 

[Rainger]

A member called willyeye. Willy a term for Wilson. Joined the .NET March 30 2015. Hmmmm right when Wilson is in contract negotiations and they are still arguing over the contract.

The cynical side of me says what better thing to do than have a proxy go onto the .NET an influential fan location where fan pressure can play a part. I am sure the Hawks are monitoring this site.

I know that is far fetched but anything is possible in todays world.

Hey Willyeye I am with you I think RW is great. If things go the way I think they will, and I live long enough, I believe he will become my favorite Seahawk all time so pay the man.

EDIT: Posted in 2 other threads about Wilson and Wagner's contract.

 

[kearly]

I agree with what you say here, but would just add a couple of points: Lynch also benefits from Wilson.

I think it would be more accurate to say that Lynch benefits from the system moreso than the specific QB. Once the OL gelled in the back half of the 2011 season, Lynch averaged 5.0 yards per carry over those final 8 games with Tjack at QB. And in 2012 with Wilson, Lynch saw a huge jump in his numbers after the team switched to read option in the middle of that season.

Wilson makes all the players around him better, so maybe there is a slight degree of an echo chamber effect where Wilson's play helps Lynch which helps Wilson. But it's probably not a significant factor, IMO, since Lynch was really good even before Wilson. And it certainly does nothing to refute Scotte's point that Wilson benefits massively from having defenses key on Lynch first, Wilson second. When Harvin was here and not creating drama, it was Lynch first, Harvin second, Wilson third. (Really a shame they couldn't get things to work, Seattle's offense looked unstoppable in the SB and early last year).

 

[kearly]

His efficiency is off the charts. But has any team passed less often in the last three years than the Seahawks? Not necessarily Russell's fault, but I kind of think this stat alone would disqualify anyone, Seahawk or not, from being the best in NFL history at something.

Actually, some of Wilson's best games are when he threw over 30 attempts. Past history shows that Wilson actually seems to get better when you put the game on his shoulders. I generally think the rep count narrative is old school thinking that needs to be retired, but I would agree with anyone that says Wilson benefits from his situation.

As bad as his weapons were in 2014, they were pretty good in 2012 and 2013. Losing Tate was a major blow, and Miller getting hurt didn't help.

Now he's got Jimmy freaking Graham. And I wouldn't be shocked if Seattle added a "name" WR in the upcoming draft either. Exciting times.

Sure, Wilson benefits. But more than almost any player in NFL history, Russ is a guy who knows how to make the most of his opportunities. And he just happened to land on arguably the most prosperous team situation of all time. It's a lot like the Shaun Alexander debate back in the day. Would Shaun be great behind any line? No. But there might not be a better back behind Hutch and Walt than Shaun.

 

[Tical21]

His efficiency is off the charts. But has any team passed less often in the last three years than the Seahawks? Not necessarily Russell's fault, but I kind of think this stat alone would disqualify anyone, Seahawk or not, from being the best in NFL history at something.

Actually, some of Wilson's best games are when he threw over 30 attempts. Past history shows that Wilson actually seems to get better when you put the game on his shoulders. I generally think the rep count narrative is old school thinking that needs to be retired, but I would agree with anyone that says Wilson benefits from his situation.

As bad as his weapons were in 2014, they were pretty good in 2012 and 2013. Losing Tate was a major blow, and Miller getting hurt didn't help.

Now he's got Jimmy freaking Graham. And I wouldn't be shocked if Seattle added a "name" WR in the upcoming draft either.

I don't know that I fully agree with the stat or premise. Unfortunately, I'm going to throw QB rating into this argument, which I usually don't like to do.

In 2014, Russell had 30+ attempts 7 times, and had a QB rating over 100 in only two of those games. He had a QB rating of 100+ in seven games total. 5 of the 7 being in games with under 30 attempts.

In 2013, he was asked to throw 30+ attempts 4 times, and had a rating of 100+ in two of those. He had a QB rating of over 100 in eight games total, with six of those times occurring when throwing under 30 passes.

In 2012, he was asked to throw 30+ times in three games, and had a rating of over 100 in one of the three. There were 9 times that he had a rating over 100, and in eight of those he threw less than 30 passes.


Obviously, you've got a Happy Path element here. The passing game wasn't the only reason he was able to have ratings over 100 in those games with fewer attempts. I would guess the rating for most, if not all QB's drops as attempts go up. But it actually looks like he has many of his worst games with more attempts, although I just took a quick look at that part of the equation. It does look to me though that Russell is at his best when you run the ball more and pass the ball less.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Sigh..

How many of these threads do we need?

He's a great player.. why are Seahawk fans so insistent on trying to validate this to their own fan base over and over and over and over.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Obviously, you've got a Happy Path element here. The passing game wasn't the only reason he was able to have ratings over 100 in those games with fewer attempts. I would guess the rating for most, if not all QB's drops as attempts go up. But it actually looks like he has many of his worst games with more attempts, although I just took a quick look at that part of the equation. It does look to me though that Russell is at his best when you run the ball more and pass the ball less.

That's the beauty of Russell, he's arguably the most pliable unique QB in the league. He can be successful passing the ball 20 times a game, and he can be successful passing it 50 times a game.

How many other QB's in the league can you say that about? Tom Brady would turn into Tom Arnold if he could only pass the ball 15-20 times a game. He needs those attempts to move the ball. Same with every other "elite" QB.

 

[Laloosh]

I agree with what you say here, but would just add a couple of points: Lynch also benefits from Wilson.

I think it would be more accurate to say that Lynch benefits from the system, not the specific QB. Once the OL gelled in the back half of the 2011 season, Lynch averaged 5.0 yards per carry over those final 8 games with Tjack at QB.

Wilson makes all the players around him better, so maybe there is a slight degree of an echo chamber effect where Wilson's play helps Lynch which helps Wilson. But it's probably not a significant factor, IMO, since Lynch was really good even before Wilson. And certainly does nothing to refute Scotte's point that Wilson benefits massively from having defenses key on Lynch instead of Wilson.

Hey kearly, wondering where you got the 5.0 figure for Lynch during that span. I'm seeing 4.29.

http://pfref.com/tiny/yucQC

I know you don't rely on stats to come to your conclusions, I'm literally just trying to find out if I'm looking at inaccurate data.

 

[SeaChase]

How was the Defense the last 3 years?

 

[rideaducati]

The current Seahawks play like dynasties of the 70's, 80's and 90's. Every dynasty won with defenses, run games and a QB that didn't lose games. QBs like Aikman, Montana, Staubach and Bradshaw all had top defenses and run games and stuck to smash mouth football. None of those QBs were ever on teams that were pass happy, but ALL of them won and all of them are in the Hall of Fame because they WON, not because they passed the ball more than anyone else.

I am quite content watching the Seahawks win with the same recipe that is proven to work. No matter the stats, I enjoy the winning.

People can rank QBs all they want and in any order, but winning is the ONLY thing that matters. In the history of the NFL, no QB has EVER won more games in his first three years in the league than Russell Wilson. It really doesn't matter to me HOW the games were won.

Does ANYONE remember that Matt Shaub threw the ball for 355 yards and Arian Foster had 102 yards rushing against the Seahawks in their week 4 matchup in 2013? How about that there were only 123 passing yards from Russell? Do you remember which team won?