Wilson's First 3 Years Are Arguably the Best in NFL History

[Anthony!]

2009 6th in YPG 10th in PPG so you were still wrong there
2010 8th in YPG you were correct on points 18th however the difference between 18th and top 10 was less than 2 points so still pretty good.

I said they were 10th in PPG in 2009; you respond by saying that they were 10th in PPG game and that "[I'm] still wrong there." What!?

Dude, I don't know if you're being deliberately obtuse or what, but it's taken about 5 posts from you to completely wear out of my patience. I don't really have any interest in continuing a discussion with you on this (or anything else, for that matter).

You are correct I misread the thing, hard to read on my phone my apologies. All that said top 10 is still very very good when you add in also top 10 in YPG.

 

[Tical21]

A third of the league being better than you at something usually wouldn't qualify as very very good

 

[Anthony!]

Any QB in the league can succeed with time to throw and open receivers.

What separates Wilson from the pack is his ability to make not only plays but spectacular plays when he's pressured or when the receivers need more time to get separation. Wilson can extend the play and then make the correct decision with the ball, even if that decision is to take the big sack. More often than not, however, the extended plays turn into positives.

The threat of this sort of "magic" means teams have to game-plan for Wilson specifically. They often do that with a linebacker spy to keep him in the pocket or at least not let him get to the edge when he runs. This is hugely important because the offense generally plays at a numeric disadvantage. The defense rushes 4 guys against your 5 guys who are protecting 1 guy, so you basically have 5 other offensive guys against 7 other defensive guys. If you can change that to 5 on 6 by making one guy watch out for your mobile QB, that creates opportunity.

At any time, Wilson will go off the play sheet, and in general he does so smartly. He still has plenty to learn, particularly when it comes to starting out games and being baited into going off-page by a false defensive look. He'll improve over time, and he'll have that time because he avoids collisions and is careful with his body to avoid injury.

Everything you just said is true just look at his time to throw vs time to pressure.


His time to pressure is 2.76 seconds but his time to throw is 4.92 the amongst the biggest difference of any starting QB with over 100 drop backs. That means he is providing an additional 2.16 seconds to his Wr and saving a lot of sacks.

That isn't what it means at all. We are one of the most blitzed teams in the NFL. All these numbers mean is that Russ can't recognize the blitz and get rid of the football. Seriously, how many times can you see the blitz coming on tv, or in person with your charts in your case, and you yell "get rid of it Russ!!!!", but instead he runs backwards?

If he could read a blitz and burn it more often he wouldn't get blitzed so often. What a concept!!

To be fair the blitzing has more to do with the lack of respect for our receiving corp and O-line. Again lets see how or if that changes with Jimmy on the field. I believe it will significantly. I think you can also include Wilson's trust level of our receivers getting open also. I do think lack of recognition and being able to change the call also play into it but again he is a 3rd year QB. He shouldn't be expected to be elite in that category just yet.

Good points!

 

[Tical21]

Touting yards per completion is pretty funny since Wilson ranks #5 in Yards per Completion over the last four years, behind only Colin Kaepernick, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer and Josh Freeman so yeah, appropriate company.

 

[rideaducati]

Touting yards per completion is pretty funny since Wilson ranks #5 in Yards per Completion over the last four years, behind only Colin Kaepernick, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer and Josh Freeman so yeah, appropriate company.

All of the QBs you listed besides Keeporpick were backup QBs, how exactly would that be considered appropriate company? Keeporpick is a backup too, he just starts for the niners, kind of like Tarvaris in 2011.

I think a little more research on your part would make you seem more credible.

Hoyer was ranked 9 and Russell was ranked 8, the lower the ranking the BETTER.
Keeporpick has NEVER ranked better than Russell.
Cousins has NEVER ranked better than Russell.
When has Freeman played in the last four years?

This site might help you: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/playe ... assAttempt

 

[KiwiHawk]

His point is that leading in yards per completion means he's a bad QB like the other ones.

What he fails to recognize is that our offense isn't a dink-and-dunk one like everyone else's. Our offense is about pulling in the defense to set up the home run ball.

Pete Carroll believes in the big play because it's more than just the yards - it's the psychological impact as well. Last year, Seattle led the league in big plays (10+ yards rushing or 25+ yards passing) with 110, and gave up the fewest big plays on defense (44) in spite of starting the year against some of the most potent offenses in the league and ending against the strongest defenses in the league.

Wilson has a high yards-per-completion because *Pete Carroll wants it that way*. Carroll wants Wilson looking deep and wants Wilson extending plays to open up big play opportunities.

Some of you pretend these guys play in a vaccuum. There's no consideration of the strength of defenses that Wilson works against, most of the top defenses being in our division representing 1/3 of our schedule. There's no consideration for the intent of the coaches and what Wilson is asked to do. There's just black and white stats as if they are interchangeable with other players on other teams facing other defenses, with different coaching philosophies, and all as if the correlation coefficient doesn't render such statistics nearly meaningless anyway due to minuscule sample sizes inherent in a 16-game season.

 

[Anthony!]

His point is that leading in yards per completion means he's a bad QB like the other ones.

What he fails to recognize is that our offense isn't a dink-and-dunk one like everyone else's. Our offense is about pulling in the defense to set up the home run ball.

Pete Carroll believes in the big play because it's more than just the yards - it's the psychological impact as well. Last year, Seattle led the league in big plays (10+ yards rushing or 25+ yards passing) with 110, and gave up the fewest big plays on defense (44) in spite of starting the year against some of the most potent offenses in the league and ending against the strongest defenses in the league.

Wilson has a high yards-per-completion because *Pete Carroll wants it that way*. Carroll wants Wilson looking deep and wants Wilson extending plays to open up big play opportunities.

Some of you pretend these guys play in a vaccuum. There's no consideration of the strength of defenses that Wilson works against, most of the top defenses being in our division representing 1/3 of our schedule. There's no consideration for the intent of the coaches and what Wilson is asked to do. There's just black and white stats as if they are interchangeable with other players on other teams facing other defenses, with different coaching philosophies, and all as if the correlation coefficient doesn't render such statistics nearly meaningless anyway due to minuscule sample sizes inherent in a 16-game season.

Good point and I agree add to that though that QBs are also measured by YPA something again Wilson has been very good at. HE has been top 10 in YPA every year he has been in the league and this is a very good measurement about how good he really is. As usual the lame attempt to put Wilson down has backfired.

 

[HansGruber]

Touting yards per completion is pretty funny since Wilson ranks #5 in Yards per Completion over the last four years, behind only Colin Kaepernick, Kirk Cousins, Brian Hoyer and Josh Freeman so yeah, appropriate company.

I'm convinced that Tical and FenderBender are in a competition to see who can come up with the dumbest nonsense. Sometimes it is amusing, other times it is just mind-bending.

 

[Tical21]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

 

[Tical21]

The guys ranked highest in yards per completion are there because they fail to grasp the intricacies of the short passing game, most importantly staying on schedule and converting short and medium third downs through the air.

 

[hawknation2015]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

I'm sure it has already been said, but the problem with most of these stats is that it requires a QB to start as a rookie on a team that is capable of supporting him statistically. They are also limited to just the first three years of a player's career, which is an even smaller sample size.

There are three stats, however, that show Russell Wilson to be well on his way to becoming an 'elite' QB.

Wilson's career QB rating of 98.6 is 2nd all-time in NFL history behind only Aaron Rodgers.

Wilson is also ranked 2nd all-time with a career TD to INT ratio of 2.77 behind only Rodgers.

And Wilson is ranked 3rd all-time with a career INT rate of only 2.1% behind only Rodgers and Brady.

It is a small sample size, but also an indication of great things to happen in the future.

 

[KiwiHawk]

The guys ranked highest in yards per completion are there because they fail to grasp the intricacies of the short passing game, most importantly staying on schedule and converting short and medium third downs through the air.

The Seahawks don't utilize a short passing game. We run an offense based on a strong running game creating big play opportunities.

You're using a yardstick tailored to an offense we don't run to evaluate our QB. Might as well measure velocity with a balance scale.

 

[rideaducati]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

I never said that yards per attempt were related to "eliteness", I just stated that you listed Russell with a bunch of backup QBs just as you have again.

There are many metrics you can use to show if a player is "elite", yards per attempt is just ANOTHER to go along with the MANY OTHER metrics where Russell stands out as being one of the best.

Can you at least admit that Russell is improving as he goes along?

I think we all can see that Russell takes too long to get rid of the ball on pass plays. I complained about it quite a bit too, but in his last few games, he has been getting better. I don't think he gets rid of the ball on time on intermediate routes either, but when he does, he is accurate. The passes that really irritate me from Russell are the long balls that are thrown late and about five yards short of perfect because he waited too long. He is getting better at all of them as he gets more time in.

"Elite" is totally subjective and you have your subjective opinion, as do the rest of us. I believe that Russell is far from being an elite passer, but he IS an elite QB. Russell does a LOT of things that a most of the elite passers can NOT.

Sure, Russell has a great team around him, but so did Montana, Young, Aikman, Bradshaw and Staubach. I don't think any of those guys were elite passers, but I would consider them, along with Russell, to be elite QBs. I would also consider every one of those guys, including Russell, as ELITE game managers. All of them had to manage their Hall of Fame wide receivers and running backs, except Russell, because he doesn't have a Hall of Fame wide receiver.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

I'm sure it has already been said, but the problem with most of these stats is that it requires a QB to start as a rookie on a team that is capable of supporting him statistically. They are also limited to just the first three years of a player's career, which is an even smaller sample size.

There are three stats, however, that show Russell Wilson to be well on his way to becoming an 'elite' QB.

Wilson's career QB rating of 98.6 is 2nd all-time in NFL history behind only Aaron Rodgers.

Wilson is also ranked 2nd all-time with a career TD to INT ratio of 2.77 behind only Rodgers.

And Wilson is ranked 3rd all-time with a career INT rate of only 2.1% behind only Rodgers and Brady.

It is a small sample size, but also an indication of great things to happen in the future.

Many of these are factors of the offense that Wilson plays in. Most QB's are asked to do more than Russell Wilson, and shoulder much more responsibility. This doesn't mean Russell Wilson is a only game manager like other people that are not Seahawk fans would try to make you believe, but what it does mean is that Wilson's TD to INT ratio is artificially inflated.

Rarely is Wilson asked to make throws over the middle of the field, and generally if a player is not open he can use his mobility to make a player open. This isn't all Wilson's fault, my guess it's just Pete Carroll's philosophy. We use the running game to set up deep throws downfield, our short passing game was virtually non existent until the end of the season. This strategy will lead to more sacks, less interceptions, and big plays, but in return other areas of the passing game will be hurt. Our passing games main strategy is essentially the football equivalent to haymakers. A strong, potentially finishing blow, that is powerful but very limited in scope. Our strategy: run long developing routes, and use Russell's mobility to get receivers open.

Again, this does not mean Wilson is a bad QB, in fact I would rank him near the bottom of the top 10 QBs which is very respectable --- and really all Seattle needs him to be. We look at Wilson as our big playmaker on offense, while Lynch is our meat and potatoes.

Unfortunately this approach is also ruining Wilson's development. I get the distinct feeling that Carroll, and Bevell limit what he is able to do at the LOS. I rarely see Wilson change the play, or direct traffic at the LOS, and for that matter it was the same way for Tavaris Jackson --- a long time veteran of the system. This is an important asset to any offense in the NFL.

When Seattle started running more timing routes, short routes, and three step drops towards the end of the year I was very underwhelmed by Wilson's accuracy and timing. He seemed to struggle with slant routes in particular. As Wilson is right now I question his ability to run a conventional offense. Wilson can step up when needed, but the issue becomes if he needs to start passing more. His style works, but it's limited in scope, and I fear it will lead to injuries. I think he could become a high volume passer, but I also think it would lead to an injury prone career with his current style. Wilson really needs to master the fine nuances of passing, and pocket management. Can he do it? Absolutely, will he do it? Depends, I really think Bevell's style of offense is holding back Wilson's development.

 

[kearly]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

Look at adjusted net yards per attempt. Russell is perennial top 10, and those clowns aren't. And Wilson would be top 5 for sure, except that he suffers from the highest sack rate in the NFL over the past 3 years. (Part of that is Wilson holding the ball of course. Football stats aren't an exact science.)

 

[WilsonMVP]

His point is that leading in yards per completion means he's a bad QB like the other ones.

What he fails to recognize is that our offense isn't a dink-and-dunk one like everyone else's. Our offense is about pulling in the defense to set up the home run ball.

Pete Carroll believes in the big play because it's more than just the yards - it's the psychological impact as well. Last year, Seattle led the league in big plays (10+ yards rushing or 25+ yards passing) with 110, and gave up the fewest big plays on defense (44) in spite of starting the year against some of the most potent offenses in the league and ending against the strongest defenses in the league.

Wilson has a high yards-per-completion because *Pete Carroll wants it that way*. Carroll wants Wilson looking deep and wants Wilson extending plays to open up big play opportunities.

Some of you pretend these guys play in a vaccuum. There's no consideration of the strength of defenses that Wilson works against, most of the top defenses being in our division representing 1/3 of our schedule. There's no consideration for the intent of the coaches and what Wilson is asked to do. There's just black and white stats as if they are interchangeable with other players on other teams facing other defenses, with different coaching philosophies, and all as if the correlation coefficient doesn't render such statistics nearly meaningless anyway due to minuscule sample sizes inherent in a 16-game season.

Good point and I agree add to that though that QBs are also measured by YPA something again Wilson has been very good at. HE has been top 10 in YPA every year he has been in the league and this is a very good measurement about how good he really is. As usual the lame attempt to put Wilson down has backfired.

The defense argument is a good one...I love how nobody ever brings up Luck had a 74.9 QB rating against the NFC West with 4TD and 4INT when he played us 2 years ago and Wilson had a 93.3 rating against the AFC South with 6TD and 1INT which was actually higher than Lucks 85.5 QB Rating with 8TD and 3 INTS in his 6 division games that year

Against the AFC South in 6 games this year Luck had 1733 yards, 16TD and 3 INT for a 111.2 QB rating..cant tell me that division is even close to being as tough as the NFC west

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

His point is that leading in yards per completion means he's a bad QB like the other ones.

What he fails to recognize is that our offense isn't a dink-and-dunk one like everyone else's. Our offense is about pulling in the defense to set up the home run ball.

Pete Carroll believes in the big play because it's more than just the yards - it's the psychological impact as well. Last year, Seattle led the league in big plays (10+ yards rushing or 25+ yards passing) with 110, and gave up the fewest big plays on defense (44) in spite of starting the year against some of the most potent offenses in the league and ending against the strongest defenses in the league.

Wilson has a high yards-per-completion because *Pete Carroll wants it that way*. Carroll wants Wilson looking deep and wants Wilson extending plays to open up big play opportunities.

Some of you pretend these guys play in a vaccuum. There's no consideration of the strength of defenses that Wilson works against, most of the top defenses being in our division representing 1/3 of our schedule. There's no consideration for the intent of the coaches and what Wilson is asked to do. There's just black and white stats as if they are interchangeable with other players on other teams facing other defenses, with different coaching philosophies, and all as if the correlation coefficient doesn't render such statistics nearly meaningless anyway due to minuscule sample sizes inherent in a 16-game season.

Good point and I agree add to that though that QBs are also measured by YPA something again Wilson has been very good at. HE has been top 10 in YPA every year he has been in the league and this is a very good measurement about how good he really is. As usual the lame attempt to put Wilson down has backfired.

The defense argument is a good one...I love how nobody ever brings up Luck had a 74.9 QB rating against the NFC West with 4TD and 4INT when he played us 2 years ago and Wilson had a 93.3 rating against the AFC South with 6TD and 1INT which was actually higher than Lucks 85.5 QB Rating with 8TD and 3 INTS in his 6 division games that year

Against the AFC South in 6 games this year Luck had 1733 yards, 16TD and 3 INT for a 111.2 QB rating..cant tell me that division is even close to being as tough as the NFC west

It has the same issue as the entire AFC except for the AFCN. One good or superior team and three teams that at best have obvious, serious and easily exploited flaws. If you want to be less politically correct about it the actual term would be trash teams.

 

[Tical21]

Couple things. You would be floored to see how many short passes we call on 3rd and short or medium. We just don't convert very many of them, so our reputation becomes that we aren't calling them. We call a lot of slants and a lot of floods that are designed to be easy reads. But they often turn into a scramble drill.

We don't need to change the play at the line. The defense usually plays quote vanilla against us. We get the looks we are expecting. If you call a play designed to beat man-1 and the other team is running man-1 all game, you don't need to audible. Dictating the defense is a huge advantage that only dominant running teams can achieve.

Kip, we don't need none of your making sense junk in this here thread. Especially if it doesn't help my argument.

 

[LymonHawk]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

Football stats aren't an exact science.)

Thank you dear sir!

I played competitive sports for some 35 years; and not once can I remember 'stats' winning a game...unless you consider the score to be a stat. Heart, talent, what's between your ears, coaching, good or bad, are what win games.

 

[Anthony!]

Yep, yards per attempt! I think you have finally found the stat that proves eliteness! Fitzpatrick is #4, Sanchez #6, Hoyer #9.

Football stats aren't an exact science.)

Not only that but just that one stat alone does not say everything. Yes Fitz was 4th in YPA but he also only had a 2-1 td.int ratio. Sanchez was #6 but he had 1-1 td/int ratio, Hoyer was #9 but he had a .9-1 td/int ratio and completd only 55% of his passes.

Now lets look at others, lets add the ones below an Elite HOF QB, and the 2 young guns

Manning #5 7.92 YPA, 2.5-1 td/int ratio 66% complt
Luck #7 7.73 YPA, 2.5-1 td/INT ration
Wilson #8 7.69 YPA, 2.9-1 td/int ratio, 63% complt%

Hmm those sound pretty elite numbers

Now lets take it one step further on as far as YPA and other stats and go career for all those QBs we mentioned

Fitz Career YPA 6.6, 1.2-1 td/int ratio, Complt% 60, QB rating 79
Sanchez Career YPA 6.67, 1-1 td/int ratio, Complt% 56, QB rating 74
Hoyer Career YPA 7.23, 1-1 TD/INt ratio, Complt % 57, qb rating 77
Manning Career YPA 7.7, 2.4 td/int ration, Complt % 65, 97 QB rating
Luck Career YPA 7.15, 2-1 TD/INt ratio, Complt% 58, QB rating 87
Wilson Career YPA 7.95, 2.8-1 td/int ratio, Complt% 63, QB rating 98.6

Hmm let me help your the top 3 all go together
the 4th and 6th go together and the 5th is betting there.

Only 2 QBs have a complt% over 61 Wilson and Manning
only 2 qb have a better than 2.1-1 td/int ration Wilson and Manning
Only 2 Qb have YPA over 7.5 Wilson and Manning
Only 2 1bs have Qb rating over 90 Wilson and Manning


So much for stats, in all the efficiency numbers Wilson is elite. Stats do not say everything, but they sure say a lot. You couple these stats, with Wilsons ability to make plays, Rush, and just plain win and you have an Elite QB. And remember he has done this without a #1 Wr, and an oline that is even avg in pass blocking, and in a run first offense, playing the most top passing defenses in the league. Now imagine what he could do in a passing offense, with an avg pass blocking oline and a true #1 wr, and facing a few less top pass defenses like most of the other Elite QBs have.