I think it's Atlanta, and I think I'd actually put Washington 2nd place.
The reason I wouldn't put the Texans #1 is because they feel a whole hell of a lot like last year's Chiefs and the Colts the year before that. A few key injuries, and then a QB situation that just spiraled out of control, followed by an unreal barrage of close losses. Their coach nearly had a stroke on the field. They have been the most snakebit team in the NFL this season. But in terms of on field talent, they have talent all over that offense, and one of the best front sevens in football when healthy. If they draft Bridgewater and put him on a team like that, then you can go ahead and pencil in Kubiak for coach of the year in 2014. Or whichever random dude happens to be coaching the Texans that season.
In other words, I think the Texans are just having a nightmare season, one they will wake up from in 2014.
But the Falcons and Redskins? They are mostly healthy and look completely terrible. Even with all the wins Mike Smith has, you get the feeling that you are seeing the "real" Falcons this year. Ditto Redskins. And the scary thing for those teams is that they can't bank on just drafting a QB for a quick turnaround. I see a lot of lost seasons in the future for those teams despite having a franchise QB, like the NFC's equivalent of the San Diego Chargers.