kearly
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It seems like Wilson does fine in cold, dry games. Its wet games that he struggles a bit.
Uncle Si":2nx2n2te said:bmorepunk":2nx2n2te said:Predicting weather this many days out is about as statistically significant as a random process. Things may change significantly over the week.
Winter here in mnpls is not hard to predict though.
You can bet that prediction is going to be fairly accurate. I'd bet temps in the teens by kickoff, little wind, maybe some sun
As we’d expect, persistence forecasting performs pretty terribly. If you just take a look at your local weather for the past week, it’s rare for temperatures to follow a linear pattern of rising or falling temperatures for more than a day. Even averaging historical data is consistently off the mark by as much as 7°F. The real winners here are the weather models, which can forecast the correct temperature within 4°F up to 3 days out.
But even weather models have their limitations: Any forecasts more than a week out are going to be less accurate than climatological forecasts on average, which we’ve already established makes for a pretty poor baseline. By a week out, small inaccuracies in the weather models build up exponentially, to the point that the model is predicting temperatures far divorced from reality. This observation leads me to wonder why commercial weather forecasting sites like AccuWeather even bother providing forecasts up to two weeks out, considering we’d be better off just looking at the historical averages at that point.
bmorepunk":qo29vc9b said:Uncle Si":qo29vc9b said:bmorepunk":qo29vc9b said:Predicting weather this many days out is about as statistically significant as a random process. Things may change significantly over the week.
Winter here in mnpls is not hard to predict though.
You can bet that prediction is going to be fairly accurate. I'd bet temps in the teens by kickoff, little wind, maybe some sun
December there was 10 degrees above average last month. Over the next six days, if the warm air that is coming in with that snow hangs around a little longer, the Saturday temperature becomes the Sunday temperature.
bmorepunk":2ayczuiq said:What is your definition of "cold"?
bmorepunk":21de4z8r said:NWS models now projecting a high of 1 with 8-9 MPH sustained winds.
bmorepunk":43sj3xec said:NWS models now projecting a high of 1 with 8-9 MPH sustained winds.
JonRud":1ca2hx9f said:bmorepunk":1ca2hx9f said:NWS models now projecting a high of 1 with 8-9 MPH sustained winds.
This is insane. Unfortunately this has to have some impact on the game. I hate this weather forecast because it may be an equalizer for Minn. on a neutral field in good weather they can't play with us, but in Arctic temps who knows how the game will be affected.
Re-open the Metrodome!
JonRud":2mvlqkjl said:bmorepunk":2mvlqkjl said:NWS models now projecting a high of 1 with 8-9 MPH sustained winds.
This is insane. Unfortunately this has to have some impact on the game. I hate this weather forecast because it may be an equalizer for Minn. on a neutral field in good weather they can't play with us, but in Arctic temps who knows how the game will be affected.
Re-open the Metrodome!