Russell Wilson VS Every Single Rookie Starter of Past 20 Yrs

[SalishHawkFan]

I like Wilson. And I think that chart is interesting, and useless. I think results based analysis usually is, and both sides of this debate have been too guilty of it.

The point of the chart or this thread isn't to say, "See, look! Russell Wilson is good! And will have an amazing career!" No, the point is to show just what exactly are realisitic expectations of a rookie qb starting from day one.

If somebody shows you statistics that show Wilson to be on par with multiple successful high draft picks, and you still don't want Wilson starting, you're basically saying "I don't want a rookie starting even had we drafted one in the 1st round." Which is a perfectly reasonable argument to make. But it needs to be separated from all of the "he's only a 3rd round pick/he's too short/he'll never get any better" nonsense that fills the debate. I got zero problems with someone categorically not believing in baptism by fire. I myself disagree strong, and feel the proof is in the pudding with how the league has been run recently. But it's an acceptable stance.

What this chart does, IMO, is shines a light on the level of expecation and nitpicking that some of the less than fans of Wilson have brought to analyzing his play. They want to be hyper-critical of his every flaw and hold him to a standard that many current pro bowlers wouldn't pass, critiquing 2 or 3 "bad throws" after mostly solid games. And then want to act as if it's some sort of sign that the guy has no future.

If he's playing like this and has no future, I don't know what the same people could say about guys like Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, or Manning. Oh no, I do. They'd say they had plenty of room to grow. And it would be all because they were told so by high draft position and draft experts.

Russell Wilson, and the polarizing debate he brings with him, is a fascinating case study of fan expectations/opinions/idealogy and the impact perceived draft status/expert opinions/"conventional wisdom" play with shaping many's opinions and what they see.

I'll say it again. If Wilson was drafted #8 overall, and 6'4", his current level of play would be held up against rookie performances like the ones on this chart with pride and optimism that he will only get better. But no, he's a 3rd round pick, and sub-6 ft. So he's guilty until proven innocent. And in some people's eyes, has to play perfectly to do so.

See to me, what I highlighted is the point. The only ones making the nonsense arguments that I've seen are the Wilson supporters when the defend Wilson. they CLAIM that's what the people who'd rather see Flynn are saying. No matter how many times I've tried to explain, in great detail, that it matters not one whit how Wilson is doing compared to other rookies, what matters is that he IS a rookie, the defenders refuse to understand the point. It's not that they can't, it seems like they simply REFUSE to.

And in order to KEEP refusing to accept this point, they fall back on "Well, we don't know what we have in Flynn." Despite the overwhelming evidence that Flynn has had more time to develop and has shown success, knows defenses better, etc. and so we have a pretty good indication that Flynn will not suffer from the rookie learning curve that Wilson will.

That rookie learning curve COULD HAVE cost us a playoff spot. I am getting the feeling that with a 4-2 record and being past the toughest part of the schedule, this team can survive letting Wilson progress. Though honestly I know the Wilson supporters don't want to hear this, but tough titty, it is still quite possible taht once he's on the road, or facing a really tough defense, that all this "progress" will evaporate and he'll have a bad game again.

And when his supporters cry "of course he had a bad game, he's a ROOKIE!" they will be in denial that THAT was the Flynn supporters point all along.

But he's earned his right to take it as far as he can and he's got the talent. We all love the guy. He's got the intangibles too. But he didn't have to start this year. He wasn't as ready as Flynn. Now all that matters is that he continue to improve. He's shown he's a winner. That the team is behind him. That he can make big plays. The traiing wheels might be coming off. We'll all see.