Russell Wilson, more help than any other QB in the league

[amill87]

**DISCLAIMER THIS POST ISN'T A EAST COAST BIAS POST, I AM ONLY LINKING IT BECAUSE IT IS HILARIOUS THE LOGIC USED**

So doing some catching up on deflate-gate, I happened upon this article.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/101699/no-one-gets-more-help-than-russell-wilson

As noted in my disclaimer (and I want to say it again), this isn't about ESPN picking on the Seahawks. To me it is freaking hilarious how far they go to say Wilson is "meh".

Quote from the article:

Seattle’s defense has a knack for playing its best when Wilson and the offense are at their worst. Since the start of 2012, Wilson has had 22 games with a QBR below 50, including 15 wins. In those games, Seattle has held its opponents to an average QBR of 34.0 and has had a per-game defensive efficiency of +7.3. In Wilson’s games with an above-average QBR, the Seahawks have allowed a 45.7 average QBR and have had a +2.4 defensive efficiency rating.

So by my math, Wilson has played 55 games. The author writes that Wilson has had a below average QBR (heh) in 22 of them. He won 15 of those games.

Which leads us to the other 33 games he has played in. Since the author states Wilson had a below average QBR in those 22, that means he had an average or above average in the remaining 33. We would take out the 15 wins from the below average leaving us with 27 wins.

That's right folks. Wilson has about a 68% win chance when he has a below average QBR. And the defense is having the "largest" impact.

But when Wilson has an average or above average QBR? His win chance goes up to 81%.

 

[Mick063]

One of the variables in QBR is called "clutch factor". The number crunchers at ESPN think that Eli Manning and Matt Ryan, among others, have a higher "clutch factor" for the 2014 season.

In my opinion, the word clutch, as referenced in a dictionary, should show Wilson's picture as an example. In other words, Wilson is the very definition of clutch, and I totally believed that before the NFCCG. No one pulls horse shoes, rabbit feet, and four leaf clovers out of his a## with such ice veins like Wilson does. The higher the stakes, the greater the pressure, the shorter the time remaining, the better Wilson plays. He has proven it to us over and over and over again.

Piss on ESPN's QBR. It is an extremely flawed measuring tool.

 

[amill87]

Oh QBR is a stat that ESPN can use to make stories such as this one. Basically their made up stat combined another made up stat says Wilson wins a lot of games. And the best part? He wins more games when he has a higher made up stat.

I'm starting to like ESPN more and more. Just makes me smile now.

 

[Smellyman]

Stopped reading when the 2nd sentence said QBR

 

[hawknation2015]

QBR is a nonsense stat.

 

[kearly]

The best part? Andrew Luck is #3. That should have given them pause.

I think I figured out what the R stands for in QBR. Randomness.

 

[themunn]

ESPN's QBR for Wilson in 2014 on a game by game basis isn't actually too bad in terms of rating his games.

But one look at his QBR rating in LAST YEAR's NFCCG (38.9 "QBR") tells you all you need to know.

 

[SeeHawkRun]

Earl said it best in his post NFCCG interview.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12190455

Russell Wilson is a winner.

I'm not gonna pretend like I know what ESPN's QBR is. It's stupid. The dude is a winner. He wins games. Sometimes with style, other times with grit and determination. Sometimes it's with his feet, often with his arm. He gets the job done. Definition of a playmaker (sick to death of this "game manager" BS) .

Lucky charms and rainbows out of his butt. Ice water in his veins. Whater. I'm cool with it.

Pay him his 22 million a season, and let's go get it done in Super Bowl 49.

 

[NorCalHawk12]

We need HeatEquation to explain that QBR doesn't mean anything because it's not statistically valid...or something. When he was explaining that he doesn't use statistics when analyzing football, 50% of me was only paying about 35% attention. Which means that out of the 12% of you that get this joke, only about 123½ of you will know why. Get it? Got it! Good.

 

[randomation]

QBR is a garbage stat and the clutch factor is one of the stupidest things ever added to a supposed advanced stat.

 

[Natethegreat]

We need HeatEquation to explain that QBR doesn't mean anything because it's not statistically valid...or something. When he was explaining that he doesn't use statistics when analyzing football, 50% of me was only paying about 35% attention. Which means that out of the 12% of you that get this joke, only about 123½ of you will know why. Get it? Got it! Good.

This post is awesome!

 

[Russ Willstrong]

On the bright side articles like this will point to how useless QBR continues to be. The more Wilson performs his magic the worse BSPN, their ignorant insiders and useless QBR appear.

 

[baumer64]

The final line tells it all:
"So the Seahawks’ current run of success hasn’t come about despite him, but it hasn’t come about solely because of him either."
Who ever said that Russel was the sole reason for the success of our TEAM? The defense the rushing game and passing game are all responsible for our team's success. I can't think of any teams that are "solely" successful because of one player. Manning is a main cog at Denver but would he be successful without receivers or a line to protect? Same with Rodgers, Brady and other QBs.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Any list that has Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Alex Smith and Tom Brady as a collective regarding "proof" of anything is automatically disqualified as those quarterbacks' games have little to nothing in common with each other. Except of course that they all play in the NFL. You couldn't have a more random grouping throwing at a dart board.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

QBR aside, one thing is obvious: we're building a dynasty off our defense's ability to keep games close.

 

[Boycie]

**DISCLAIMER THIS POST ISN'T A EAST COAST BIAS POST, I AM ONLY LINKING IT BECAUSE IT IS HILARIOUS THE LOGIC USED**

So doing some catching up on deflate-gate, I happened upon this article.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/101699/no-one-gets-more-help-than-russell-wilson

As noted in my disclaimer (and I want to say it again), this isn't about ESPN picking on the Seahawks. To me it is freaking hilarious how far they go to say Wilson is "meh".

Quote from the article:

Seattle’s defense has a knack for playing its best when Wilson and the offense are at their worst. Since the start of 2012, Wilson has had 22 games with a QBR below 50, including 15 wins. In those games, Seattle has held its opponents to an average QBR of 34.0 and has had a per-game defensive efficiency of +7.3. In Wilson’s games with an above-average QBR, the Seahawks have allowed a 45.7 average QBR and have had a +2.4 defensive efficiency rating.

So by my math, Wilson has played 55 games. The author writes that Wilson has had a below average QBR (heh) in 22 of them. He won 15 of those games.

Which leads us to the other 33 games he has played in. Since the author states Wilson had a below average QBR in those 22, that means he had an average or above average in the remaining 33. We would take out the 15 wins from the below average leaving us with 27 wins.

That's right folks. Wilson has about a 68% win chance when he has a below average QBR. And the defense is having the "largest" impact.

But when Wilson has an average or above average QBR? His win chance goes up to 81%.

Just let them all keep thinking this crap. It makes it all the more sweeter when we beat them!

 

[BlueTalons]

'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics' - Mark Twain
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damn ... statistics

 

[sutz]

Russell Wilson, more help than any other QB in the league.

-translation: The Seahawks are the best TEAM in the league.

 

[formido]

LOL.

Shall we invalidate this article completely and irrefutably in one sentence? Let's do:

QBR explicitly and purposely does not take into account strength of opponent and QBR does not try to take into account strength of teammates.

The first is not necessarily obvious, many ratings do take into account opponent strength, ESPN just chooses not to. Perhaps this isn't surprising, given the disparity in strength of opponent between, oh--let's just pick an example off the top of my head--the Colts in the AFC South and the Seahawks in the NFC West. I'm guessing it wouldn't make Luck look better. I wonder if anyone's actually looked at this? Oh wait, they have! Just this week!

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/421 ... e-view-him

The second, that QBR doesn't take into account quality of teammates, applies to all current popular all-in-one stats extant. That this matters is obvious to anyone who isn't trying to sell stories by glossing over the truth and is trivially provable by examining the changing fortunes of historical QBs depending on their pass blocking and receivers. My favorite recent example is how bad Tom Brady looks when his measured time to pressure is top 5 worst in the league and Gronk is hurt--but there are plenty, and in fact you'd have to be awfully stupid to think the 10 other players on the field don't have a huge effect on QB stats.

I mean, what if Seattle built the team as a passing offense around Wilson instead of a run first offense? Think that would affect his passing numbers a smidge?

Luckily, Carroll is smarter than that, though, and isn't trying to impress ESPN's QBR. It turns out spending your money on making a run first team wins really well in this day and age. And, on that score, judging Wilson just by conventional passing stats will always massively underrate him. As long as Wilson is QB, Seattle will have a big boost in run efficiency due to the way Wilson tilts the field. Marshawn Lynch's yards per carry jumped from the Chicago game forward once Seattle figured out how to use Wilson's run threat. Seattle's marginal run value is high due to Wilson and marginal value is what wins games and championships.

Seattle fans more than most know that run yards are worth more than pass yards. That's why Pete Carroll's cut-off for explosive play is 12 yards on the ground and 16 in the air.

Wilson's magic is that he, in his "worst[1]" season, is a fringe elite passer and a high volume, Hall of Fame efficiency runner. This is why Seattle seems to win so many more games than they "should". This is something which will never, never be acknowledged by fans, and definitely not stats geeks, because there isn't enough data to model Wilson's game with the undergrad stats tools they know. He simply doesn't fit the models they use for evaluating the QB position. Even when someone smart teases it out, it's drowned in the ocean of conventional QB evaluation immediately.

But every NFL coach knows it implicitly when they game plan for Wilson.

The foregoing is all in addition, of course, to his decision making and clutchness.

I hate complex stats models that try to be the One True Rating for an individual player in a team sport. What I do like is seeing if there's a way, by throwing out tons of data and looking at another angle, we can prove a point beyond much of a reasonable doubt. That's a good way to use statistics.

DVOA really sucks for individual ratings the same way QBR does. But for team ratings, it's hugely predictive and the cat's meow.

In 2011 Seattle was ranked #22 by offensive DVOA. In the off-season Russell Wilson was added. He's by far the most significant addition to the offense since 2011 and probably the only significant addition. Here's Seattle's offensive DVOA since then:

2012: #4
2113: #7
2014: #5

Yeah, Seattle's defense is really carrying him.

[1] I don't concede at all that this season is anything other than Wilson proving again and again how much Seattle's elite offense depends on his gifts. No matter how much of an annoying squeaky wheel I am, or how much the conventional wisdom ignores the true value of his game, Seattle will keep on winning games because of it and owe him a debt.

 

[brimsalabim]

I saw this posted on the BR just before another piece that points out that 7 of 10 highest salaries on the seahawks go to defensive players. lynch is second on the list, Okung is in the middle and Unger is 10.