Random Thoughts™ on the Panthers game

TwilightError

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kearly":2quaijut said:
Wilson can pretend he's Fran Tarkenton til he's 35 if he wants to, and he'll probably still go to the HoF with a couple rings. So I'm not exactly complaining or MMQB'ing.

No he can't. The man can scramble but he will not reach elite status if he does not learn to make quick decisions. It is heartwrenching to watch him drop for a 20 yard sack a couple of times on each drive. In the end, it will be too costly. 4 seconds and get the ball out. If Wilson can do that consistently, there is nothing left on his to do -list.
 

RolandDeschain

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Great write-up as always, Kearly.

To my eye, Bevell didn't start getting creative, (or even really trying to change things) until around the end of the 3rd quarter. I saw a lot of "mediocre at best" play calling before then to my mind, and then we started doing quick passes to the fullback on the sidelines, some designed roll-outs for Wilson, and some deep bombs. Things went much more smoothly on offense at that point.

Despite our win, I was very much aggravated by our play calling for most of the game. What are your thoughts specifically on Bevell's performance today?
 

Lady Talon

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1. I can't help but think our run defense really suffered without Browner. The drop in physicality isn't too noticeable without a few key D linemen, but it seems to drop off a cliff when Browner is missing. I don't think the DBs played badly either, I just missed the total chaos Browner causes.

2. Rivera did his team an injustice managing his timeouts and the clock in the second half. Wasted challenge + blowing the last timeout before the warning, I sure think he could have let his D have a few more whacks at Wilson and hope for a turnover towards the end.

3. Real thing or not, I predict CK and co. won't have near the success in the Clink vs. our DBs, and judging by that home defensive effort, RW will have his opportunities to rip it apart. The second game should concern us more, particularly if we're racing for a title.
 

Uffda

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MrCarey":3nx26y9n said:
Kaep is gonna struggle next week. GB defense is soft as hell.


Both secondaries looked like a good weakness that's exciting.
 
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kearly

kearly

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RolandDeschain":1wz57cr6 said:
What are your thoughts specifically on Bevell's performance today?

It looked pretty typical to me. The same style of playcalling they had last year with FO's #1 offense.

IMO, playcalling is extremely over-rated by fans. Drawing up new wrinkles and schemes, finding ways to develop players (Harbaugh - Kaepernick) or utilize talent (Carroll - Golden Tate), that's what separates the genius offensive minds from the rest. Play calling is just basic decision making with a slight randomness element added to remain less predictable. The last time I heard an OC described as a "genius" almost solely because of his playcalling was Mike Martz a decade ago, and it wasn't long before those "genius" opinions reversed course when the NFL adapted to his philosophy.

You look at how good RG3 was last year or how many yards Cam Newton got as a rookie- those guys were playing with tiny playbooks. Something like 15 plays was all they ran but they were very successful. They pretty much did whatever they wanted and most defenses still couldn't stop them.

Mike Holmgren, who was in involved in the creation of several different elite offenses, was notorious for being predictable and was a big proponent of the idea that if you execute well enough, it doesn't even matter if they know what's coming.

Further, there is a lot of stuff you can't know while football games are going on. Defenses plan for every play based on what they are guessing the offense will do. The offense is planning for what they are guessing the defense is thinking. Each side is always trying to guess right and attack the weak spots. The Seahawks ran 61 plays, and probably had a lot of play call decisions that involved educated guesses. Sometimes they guess wrong, but that doesn't make it a bad play call.

The only time you hear about play calling is when the offense doesn't score as much as it should have. It's the purest form of MMQB'ing. Even if the playcalling did have a mistake or two, it's usually way down the list of reasons for the struggles. Fans treat it like it's the primary reason any offense would ever fail, but often times it wasn't a reason for the problems at all. Personally, I don't remember a single play call I thought was dumb in this game. They basically played it by the book like they always do, IIRC.

In fact, I thought it was pretty smart that they abandoned the run early before getting back to it late. This matchup was eerily similar to the Miami game last year, right down to the 11 straight completions Wilson had (16 straight vs. Miami). We lost that Miami game because Pete was too stubborn over the run, and he admitted as much with great regret after the game. He didn't repeat that mistake, and Seattle ended on the winning side this time. Personally, I applaud Pete's/Bevell's choices. We didn't get a ton of points, but Carolina has potentially an elite defense and we got 370 yards on it, on the road, at 10am Pacific, in 90 degree heat. I'll take it.

EDIT: Actually, I was ticked about one aspect of our play calling. We took 2 shots deep in 61 plays (and according to Diags, only one of those was actually called in the huddle for certain). Maybe there were other deep ball play calls and Wilson opted for something else, had to scramble, got sacked, whatever. In any event, Seattle didn't take their first shot down the field until the 4th quarter. Given how critically important the deep ball is to our offense, I think that's a mistake. I hope that's the last time this year they wait that long before going deep.
 

Hawkscanner

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Thanks Kearly as always. Here are a few comments/thoughts of my own ...

kearly":3hs0aq3i said:
Cam Newton isn't that great against us, but he's a stat monster against the rest of the league and as you saw today, that defense in Carolina is legit. This was a 10 am win in the summer heat in our dark jerseys. In wacky week one. With our top pass rushers, and Brandon Browner, out of action. Every win is big when you are competing in the NFC West, but this one was bigger than most.

I'd thought this at the time, but Danny O'Neil confirmed it. Yesterday's 125 passing yards (an amazingly low 5.6 Yards/Completion) was Cam Newton's lowest yardage total of his career.

His previous career low was last season, when the Hawks held Newton to 12 of 29 for 141 yards and 0 TD's (a QB Rating of 56.8.)

BOTH times in their house, mind you. To do what the Seahawks just did yesterday without Clemons, Avril, or Irvin was damned impressive.

kearly":3hs0aq3i said:
Throwing a deep bomb to a receiver running at his own unique rate of speed is a similar thing. It's tricky as hell to judge that, and nobody bats 1.000 guessing where the vectors will cross. So what does Seattle do after Wilson just barely misses Stephen Williams? Well, they draw up the same exact fricken' play of course. Why wouldn't they? Result- Wilson splits the uprights, this time to Jermaine Kearse (who, it bears repeating, made an awesome catch). It's such genius, why do teams not do this more often? Are they afraid of defenses having heightened awareness? Because, personally, the last time I'd expect a deep bomb is on 2nd and 10 after 1st and 10 was an incomplete pass attempt deep. To the exact same spot no less.

THAT's what I saw as well. I was going to post that exact same observation earlier, but wasn't completely sure if my eyes were deceiving me, as I only saw the play once. Agreed -- absolute genius to go back to the exact same route on the next play. If it were me, I'd have come out with the Shock and Awe right out of the gate, looking to drive the ball down the field on the first series, as I figured the Panthers would be gearing up to stop the run out of the gate. Better late than never I guess.

kearly":3hs0aq3i said:
-I'm not going to watch the DVR again, and I'd probably need to be sure, but I thought James Carpenter's lack of athleticism continuously plagued Seattle's trap game (pulling linemen). Star Lotulelei had a nice game blowing up our traps and pulls, really their whole front seven did, but when a Panther's player was breaking into the backfield it was usually because Carpenter was too slow at doing something. I am growing in confidence that Carpenter lacks the needed athleticism to play ZBS. He might have to move to a man blocking scheme to realize his full potential. I hope I am wrong, but it feels like he's been showing those kind of signs for a while, and today I thought they were blindingly obvious.

I know that Cable is enamored with him (at least he WAS at the time that he drafted him) ... but I'm seeing the exact same thing that you are with Carpenter -- that he just looks so slow footed to me. Someone else compared him to Jesus Montero and yeah, that's exactly it with the kind of plodding I'm seeing out there. I'd have to go back and look at the tape again, but my guess is that that is where a lot of the breakdown was coming from in terms of the run blocking. Lotulelei is an all world talent that many of us (including you) drooled over ... and he had a king's feast going up against Carp. I'm hoping you're wrong as well, because I fear (like you) that he's just not cut out for the ZBS.

I posted this in another thread, but I think this bears repeating again ...

I think people have a tendency to overreact when looking at games on the road. Sure the 49ers and Broncos looked impressive with what they did this week ... but most good teams can look good when they play at home. The fact is that it's hard to win on the road in the NFL, so any win is a good win -- bottom line.

That was a pretty decent Panthers team (that's up and coming IMO) that the Hawks beat in their house. With the addition of Star Lotulelei, that defensive front 7 is going to be one of the very best D-Lines in all the NFL. Hardy and Johnson are a scary combo for anyone, so I'm not surprised at all that the Offensive Line didn't have its best game.

Plus, you've got to consider further that this is a Panthers team that won 5 of its final 6 games last year including 3 road games and the Falcons in fairly convincing fashion. The Seahawks and Oakland were the only 2 teams who held Cam Newton under 200 yds passing and they just did it again today -- both times in their house. For the Hawks to do what they did today (given the number of players that they have out) is an impressive feat indeed.

This Seahawks team is pretty darned good now and will only get better, as reinforcements will be arriving soon. ESPN analyst and former Bears WR Tom Waddell believes that the Hawks are serious Super Bowl contenders ... and given the overall talent up and down this roster and comparing them with other teams in the NFC, it's hard to argue with that.

Just FYI, here are a few road games from last year's Super Bowl Champions -- just to give us some perspective ...

Baltimore Ravens ...
Week 5 vs. Chiefs (at Kansas City) ... Won 9-6
Week 11 vs. Pittsburgh (at Pittsburgh) ... Won 13-10
Week 12 vs. San Diego (at San Diego) ... Won 16-13 OT
 

Scottemojo

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On the Kearse TD, after the first incompletion, to me the corner looked tired. I called for the same play, my buddy just turns and looks at me after they do it. How did you know?

I didn't. But it does me good to know that Bevell is basing his play calls on things he sees in the defense.

It may not have been pretty, but the offense is multiple. And the D is awesome.

Also, I get what you say about Kaepernick, and I do think he is good, but lets not forget that two of his three best games have come vs the same team, just like Newton has had his worst two games vs the same team.
On Green Bay. To my eye, it looked like they tried to copy a Seattle D plan. Stop the run, zone the middle, press the outside. They simply don't have those players. They tried to manufacture toughness with bluster and attitude. Some teams just meet schematic nightmares.

I actually take a lot out of that game that helps Seattle. San Fran has a softish secondary, Nnamdi can still press but looked weak covering inside routes, Reid is not even close to Goldson, and I think they can control the line better vs San Fran.
 

graphicavenger

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I think the Panthers D was better than everyone expected. They stuffed the run rather thoroughly. They brought pressure on Wilson, and they had fairly good coverage.

I thought this could be a trap game for us and was almost anticipating a 10-6 score, Panthers win. Our Defense is stout, however.

I believe we match up well with the power houses in the NFC - New Orleans, Atlanta, San Fran and NYG. (I don't put Dallas in there despite the win over NY because, frankly, it took 6 turnovers to even make that game close. Half the turnovers and the Giants win handily.)

I also like the fact that the first game of the season was so close. It's good for a team to get a scare early on. Next week's game will be epic!
 

themunn

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I watched the highlights on NFL.com and on every play bar one where Wilson was being pressured in the backfield Carpenter was off the field.
The one play he was involved in was the sack/fumble, and if you watch that, Carpenter is engaged with Short and simply isn't moved at all, that's edge rushed all the way, and both Giacomini and Okung were pushed back. Wilson had space to step up because both Carpenter and Unger were manhandling their assignments.
 

Tech Worlds

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TwilightError":1otcrrsh said:
kearly":1otcrrsh said:
Wilson can pretend he's Fran Tarkenton til he's 35 if he wants to, and he'll probably still go to the HoF with a couple rings. So I'm not exactly complaining or MMQB'ing.

No he can't. The man can scramble but he will not reach elite status if he does not learn to make quick decisions. It is heartwrenching to watch him drop for a 20 yard sack a couple of times on each drive. In the end, it will be too costly. 4 seconds and get the ball out. If Wilson can do that consistently, there is nothing left on his to do -list.

A couple of times on each drive? Exaggerate much?
 

aawolf

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Thanks Kearly. Very informative post and I was getting sick of reading all the doom and gloomers say it was an underwhelming effort by the O-line and RW in this game. I will need to watch the DVR, as I was at the game, but it looked from my seats like RW was only holding the ball when he was running for his life. The quick hits just didn't appear to be there unless they were outlet passes to the RBs, which happened several times in the game. The time that Tate lined up in the FB position on a quick screen was one of those times and it was executed perfectly.

A few things on the Panthers, as I'm from NC and they are my 1b team these days (I was pulling for the Seahawks, but I wouldn't have been THAT disappointed if the Panthers won since this would have been a much bigger win for them than Seattle):

1. I agree with you about the Panther's front 7. They are legit. They were legit last year and have gotten significantly better with Star on the inside. That dude was all over the field making plays in the run game. I look forward to seeing if he can maintain his impact because much more games like this and he is DROY. Kuechly was the man as usual making sideline to sideline stops. He outshined Wagner today. The line dominated against the run and disallowed RW to do what he wanted.

2. On offense, I thought the Panther's preseason woes continued. Cam looks great at times, but continues to be uncomfortable in the pocket and it shows. Drops and lack of WR depth were also prevalent, as TE Olsen dropped to sure-fire big gains that hit him in the hands and Cam didn't have another WR not named Smith to throw to. On third down, the Panthers' best option continues to be Cam running the ball on a draw or scrambling. The Panthers were bailed out several times by bone-headed Seattle penalties or they would have been significantly behind on the time of possession.

3. One thing about the Panthers that frustrates fans, which has caused several fans to give up on the team, is the choke factor. They had leads going into the fourth quarter 12 times last year and only won 6 games. That happened in this game, where going into the fourth, they were leading 7-6. Then, as usual, they choked by fumbling victory away on their five yard line. They just cannot close the deal.

4. Like Kearly, I too saw this scenario play out in the prediction thread--low-scoring defensive battle where Carolina will lose in the fourth. This will not be the norm, hopefully, for these two teams. Both Seattle and Carolina have a lot to work on, but they have a lot to hang their hats on too in this hard-fought game.
 

aawolf

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I'm not as versed on the nuances of O-line play as you are Kearly, but what did you think of Sweezy's impact? He's gotten grief in some of the whiner threads, and I'm interested in what you think. I didn't notice him, good or bad, much throughout the game.
 

justafan

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aawolf":3oixmjm9 said:
I'm not as versed on the nuances of O-line play as you are Kearly, but what did you think of Sweezy's impact? He's gotten grief in some of the whiner threads, and I'm interested in what you think. I didn't notice him, good or bad, much throughout the game.

Let me see if I understand this.You dont know enough about the Oline to have your own opinion so you have to ask someone else.
You didnt pay attention to the Oline so you have to ask someones else for an opinion, but you accuse other people of whining because they have their own opinion that Oline didnt play up to expectations and had some difficulties in the run and pass pro.
 

aawolf

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justafan":3022mrnj said:
aawolf":3022mrnj said:
I'm not as versed on the nuances of O-line play as you are Kearly, but what did you think of Sweezy's impact? He's gotten grief in some of the whiner threads, and I'm interested in what you think. I didn't notice him, good or bad, much throughout the game.

Let me see if I understand this.You dont know enough about the Oline to have your own opinion so you have to ask someone else.
You didnt pay attention to the Oline so you have to ask someones else for an opinion, but you accuse other people of whining because they have their own opinion that Oline didnt play up to expectations and had some difficulties in the run and pass pro.

I just thought, from my observations, that the O-line play was not "that bad". I saw that RW was pressured several times and the run game was not working, but I saw it as being more a function of the Panther's great front 7 and not a result of missed assignments. I just thought all the whining was a bit of an over-reaction, from my perspective. If we continue to only get 2.5 yards per carry in other games, then I was wrong and our O-line sucks, but I didn't get that opinion from my limited perspective in this game.
 

justafan

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You didnt need to call other posters names to get your point across.In many peoples opinions 2.5 yds a carry and the pass pro problems are that bad.I know they will be better the rest of the season I am sure of that but yesterday they got beat in the trenches and that pisses people off.I dont care how good Carolinas front 7 are the Oline has to match that intensity if they are going to be the team we all want them to be.
Its just that anytime people criticize a part of the team or a player they get jumped on and called chicken littles,overreacting or whiners.
Its the different opinions that make forums work.
 

Sarlacc83

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justafan":1a162hq8 said:
You didnt need to call other posters names to get your point across.

The irony here is that he didn't call you a name, but you tacitly insulted him first.

The Panthers defensive front 7 is quite possibly going to end up as the best in the game this year (IMO), and that defensive line may well get a nickname. If we had that kind of front line, we'd contend for the best defense EVER.
 

justafan

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In my mind, I thought calling the other threads whiners was an insult for having different opinions.If he didn't mean whiner in an insulting manner I will take it back.Maybe I was over reacting
 

drdiags

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Follow-up on the second deep-shot. According to Pete in his after-the-game presser, the play called had an option in it for the deep-shot. He said it was part of the progression, so maybe it wasn't or was the first option? Not sure we will ever be certain since Kearse, Wilson, Pete and Baldwin all phrased it as part of the progression and Kearse played off Tony V's suggestion to him that he was the primary on the play.

Wonder what the All-22 will show from this game? Hope some brave soul volunteers to share some screen shots or maybe expand on some of the points made in this thread?
 

ClumsyLurk

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justafan":19drynut said:
I dont care how good Carolinas front 7 are the Oline has to match that intensity if they are going to be the team we all want them to be.
Yeah because asking an intelligent person for an assessment is way stupider than just having your opinions; assuming he doesn't have any.
 
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