That's a lot of IFs and so says he's not a top tier QB (Top 10). Which you can win with, but then it means you gotta put the money/talent around to make everything else work to essentially carry the QB who is not carrying the team. I don't think it's regression for Geno, I think its exposure. He is a mid pack QB who needs an offense to function for him to function. I think a top tier QB is a QB who can carry an offense and he can make it function.
Lets play hypothetical....if you put Geno on the Niners..that have all the pieces in play you would want for Geno to excel. Would he perform at the same level as Purdy, below or better?
He has the talent around him. And it's not a lot of ifs. It's the same ifs that most qbs need, unless they are in the top 3% in some other metric.
But it's 2 ifs. Basic. Fundamental ifs that Geno has not had over the same period in which his play has declined.
If a qb has protection , he can make his reads, wrs have time to run their routes, and things work.
If a qb has a reliable running game, the defense has to respect it. And in respecting it, take resources away from pass defense.
And to the protection piece. When Waldron actually calls a game to address that shortcoming we do well. See the Detroit game.
Last year, when Geno was on fire, we were allowing around 2.1 sacks per game through week 8 or so.
From there on that number ballooned to 3 plus to the point we finished at 2.7 per game for the season.
His numbers dropped during that span.
Same with the running game. Over the same span, our ground game was running at 120 plus per game.
After that, there are multiple game stretches where we averaged in the 80s . The 80s, per game.
This year, for the season, we avg 92 yards per game. That's horrible. Ranked 28th in the league.
Save for the jaguars, virtually all of the true playoff contenders are in the top 16 in yards per game. Only the bubble teams like us, cinci, Minnesota, etc, are ranked in the 20s, as we should.
None of this is hocus pocus, defending Geno, or trying to make excuses. It's just football. Don't protect the qb so that he can make his reads, don't rush the ball effectively, and unless you have a truly special player at the position, you won't get far.
Geno has shown he can operate this offense at a high rate. But he can't do it without a running game that's not putting up at least respectable numbers.
And he can't do it if he's got defenders hanging on him.
Thise two things aren't exceptional expectations. They are fundamental.