QB Controversy

[12forlife]

You don't think that Geno is top 15?

Not if your asking me at the start of the season with all 32 starting QB's healthy. You really think 15 TD, 9 INT, 3 Fumbles through 12 games is top 15? If it is it just goes to show the weakness at the QB position as a whole? Geno is a glorified backup, and nothing more. You think all the talent evaluators over the last 10 years missed something while he rode the bench?? Dude can't handle pressure, can't protect the ball, takes untimely sacks, that make longer fg's or pushes us clear out. Sorry for the long write up, simply put hell no Geno isn't top 15.

 

[keasley45]

That's a lot of IFs and so says he's not a top tier QB (Top 10). Which you can win with, but then it means you gotta put the money/talent around to make everything else work to essentially carry the QB who is not carrying the team. I don't think it's regression for Geno, I think its exposure. He is a mid pack QB who needs an offense to function for him to function. I think a top tier QB is a QB who can carry an offense and he can make it function.


Lets play hypothetical....if you put Geno on the Niners..that have all the pieces in play you would want for Geno to excel. Would he perform at the same level as Purdy, below or better?

He has the talent around him. And it's not a lot of ifs. It's the same ifs that most qbs need, unless they are in the top 3% in some other metric.

But it's 2 ifs. Basic. Fundamental ifs that Geno has not had over the same period in which his play has declined.

If a qb has protection , he can make his reads, wrs have time to run their routes, and things work.

If a qb has a reliable running game, the defense has to respect it. And in respecting it, take resources away from pass defense.

And to the protection piece. When Waldron actually calls a game to address that shortcoming we do well. See the Detroit game.

Last year, when Geno was on fire, we were allowing around 2.1 sacks per game through week 8 or so.

From there on that number ballooned to 3 plus to the point we finished at 2.7 per game for the season.

His numbers dropped during that span.

Same with the running game. Over the same span, our ground game was running at 120 plus per game.

After that, there are multiple game stretches where we averaged in the 80s . The 80s, per game.

This year, for the season, we avg 92 yards per game. That's horrible. Ranked 28th in the league.

Save for the jaguars, virtually all of the true playoff contenders are in the top 16 in yards per game. Only the bubble teams like us, cinci, Minnesota, etc, are ranked in the 20s, as we should.

None of this is hocus pocus, defending Geno, or trying to make excuses. It's just football. Don't protect the qb so that he can make his reads, don't rush the ball effectively, and unless you have a truly special player at the position, you won't get far.

Geno has shown he can operate this offense at a high rate. But he can't do it without a running game that's not putting up at least respectable numbers.

And he can't do it if he's got defenders hanging on him.

Thise two things aren't exceptional expectations. They are fundamental.

 

[OrangeGravy]

He has the talent around him. And it's not a lot of ifs. It's the same ifs that most qbs need, unless they are in the top 3% in some other metric.

But it's 2 ifs. Basic. Fundamental ifs that Geno has not had over the same period in which his play has declined.

If a qb has protection , he can make his reads, wrs have time to run their routes, and things work.

If a qb has a reliable running game, the defense has to respect it. And in respecting it, take resources away from pass defense.

And to the protection piece. When Waldron actually calls a game to address that shortcoming we do well. See the Detroit game.

Last year, when Geno was on fire, we were allowing around 2.1 sacks per game through week 8 or so.

From there on that number ballooned to 3 plus to the point we finished at 2.7 per game for the season.

His numbers dropped during that span.

Same with the running game. Over the same span, our ground game was running at 120 plus per game.

After that, there are multiple game stretches where we averaged in the 80s . The 80s, per game.

This year, for the season, we avg 92 yards per game. That's horrible. Ranked 28th in the league.

Save for the jaguars, virtually all of the true playoff contenders are in the top 16 in yards per game. Only the bubble teams like us, cinci, Minnesota, etc, are ranked in the 20s, as we should.

None of this is hocus pocus, defending Geno, or trying to make excuses. It's just football. Don't protect the qb so that he can make his reads, don't rush the ball effectively, and unless you have a truly special player at the position, you won't get far.

Geno has shown he can operate this offense at a high rate. But he can't do it without a running game that's not putting up at least respectable numbers.

And he can't do it if he's got defenders hanging on him.

Thise two things aren't exceptional expectations. They are fundamental.

I sometimes suspect that a lot of fans think just about all QBs will execute reasonably well if protection is good, therefore you're only ahead of the game if you have a guy that can execute in any scenario. Which of course couldn't be further from the truth. Of the 64 2deep QBs at any one time in the league, at most the top 15 will execute very well if you keep them clean.

Perfect example is Geno vs Drew. If you could somehow run a controlled experiment guaranteeing good protection for 17 games, Geno performs well in 13-15 of them. Drew would be closer to 9-12. Everyone will have 2 or 3 off games, but Drew doesn't process as well enough or have consistent enough accuracy at this point to raise his floor or ceiling.
For whatever reason, fans ignore a QBs floor and get blinded by flash

 

[keasley45]

I sometimes suspect that a lot of fans think just about all QBs will execute reasonably well if protection is good, therefore you're only ahead of the game if you have a guy that can execute in any scenario. Which of course couldn't be further from the truth. Of the 64 2deep QBs at any one time in the league, at most the top 15 will execute very well if you keep them clean.

Perfect example is Geno vs Drew. If you could somehow run a controlled experiment guaranteeing good protection for 17 games, Geno performs well in 13-15 of them. Drew would be closer to 9-12. Everyone will have 2 or 3 off games, but Drew doesn't process as well enough or have consistent enough accuracy at this point to raise his floor or ceiling.
For whatever reason, fans ignore a QBs floor and get blinded by flash

Couldn't have said it better. Geno's flash is in the nuance of the game.a stat like TO likely plays. Yes. Some of the throws should never leave his hand. And, some of them are a result of him fitting in balls into absurdly tight spaces that honestly, very few qbs have the ball placement to make. And others are a result of an offensive scheme that the OC has been woefully slow to adapt, running the same plays over and over again.

Brock and KJ were talking about this this week. Our offense had been unnecessarily predictable and has relied on routes that opposing defenses know are coming. So what's a qb supposed to do when he's playing from a sheet of music that is getting exponentially more difficult to execute successfully? The likelihood of plays becoming TOs increases.

And again that's not to excuse Geno. The dude sometimes has a one speed (too slow) delivery, and has become too careful with the ball, waiting too long to let fly. That's the beauty of Drew. If it's there, he will let the ball fly. But the problem with Drew is actually knowing what's there and what's not, and when to move on from a read.

But to appreciate Geno, you have to actually understand the difficulty in getting to some of the reads he makes, see how he manipulates coverage, and realize how absolutely small of a window he's getting balls into.

That last part was proven in that over 22' he lead the league in completing passes with the highest degree of difficulty.

A light SHOULD go on for folks that if you have a QB who's leading the league in completing the most difficult passes (that translates to HIGHLY accurate) that if he's also tops in TO worthy plays, that there might be something else factoring in.

But like you said, it's often not flashy, so his best attributes go unseen.

 

[themunn]

Not if your asking me at the start of the season with all 32 starting QB's healthy. You really think 15 TD, 9 INT, 3 Fumbles through 12 games is top 15? If it is it just goes to show the weakness at the QB position as a whole? Geno is a glorified backup, and nothing more. You think all the talent evaluators over the last 10 years missed something while he rode the bench?? Dude can't handle pressure, can't protect the ball, takes untimely sacks, that make longer fg's or pushes us clear out. Sorry for the long write up, simply put hell no Geno isn't top 15.

It is a weird year to be fair - only 4 starting QBs currently have a rating of 100+ on the season, which in previous years you'd expect the top 10 all be in excess of that.

Statistically speaking I'd put Geno around 18th as far as QBs go this year, although also I think KWIII picking up a number of 1 yard TDs also doesn't show on Geno's stat sheet but they are team TDs that he is also responsible for. But we do know Geno has been playing through injury much of the year, behind a rotating O-line (the only times he's had our starting O-Line this year was the first half of first Rams game, and the Dallas game).

Purdy looked like shit when he was missing Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel for 3 games, with just 3 TDs against 5 INTS - comparably, in the other 11 games he has 26 TDs and 2 INTs - he's teetering on the brink of setting the single-season QB rating record, but if the whole team isn't available then he looks not just average, but stinks. Perhaps we can give Geno the same benefit of the doubt? I'm excited to see him Sunday with a full strength offense against a middle-of-the-road team, and see how much of a difference it really makes

 

[DarkVictory23]

He has the talent around him. And it's not a lot of ifs. It's the same ifs that most qbs need, unless they are in the top 3% in some other metric.

But it's 2 ifs. Basic. Fundamental ifs that Geno has not had over the same period in which his play has declined.

If a qb has protection , he can make his reads, wrs have time to run their routes, and things work.

If a qb has a reliable running game, the defense has to respect it. And in respecting it, take resources away from pass defense.

And to the protection piece. When Waldron actually calls a game to address that shortcoming we do well. See the Detroit game.

Last year, when Geno was on fire, we were allowing around 2.1 sacks per game through week 8 or so.

From there on that number ballooned to 3 plus to the point we finished at 2.7 per game for the season.

His numbers dropped during that span.

Same with the running game. Over the same span, our ground game was running at 120 plus per game.

After that, there are multiple game stretches where we averaged in the 80s . The 80s, per game.

This year, for the season, we avg 92 yards per game. That's horrible. Ranked 28th in the league.

Save for the jaguars, virtually all of the true playoff contenders are in the top 16 in yards per game. Only the bubble teams like us, cinci, Minnesota, etc, are ranked in the 20s, as we should.

None of this is hocus pocus, defending Geno, or trying to make excuses. It's just football. Don't protect the qb so that he can make his reads, don't rush the ball effectively, and unless you have a truly special player at the position, you won't get far.

Geno has shown he can operate this offense at a high rate. But he can't do it without a running game that's not putting up at least respectable numbers.

And he can't do it if he's got defenders hanging on him.

Thise two things aren't exceptional expectations. They are fundamental.

Some numbers to put context to what you're saying:

Geno is top 10 in success rating per dropback for QBs in the league. Know how many other QBs are in the top 10 without having an RB in the top half of the league in that same success rating metric?

Just 1. (Trevor Lawrence)

Walker and Charb are both in the 20s for overall RB success rating.

Basically nobody is producing his numbers, as sad as they can be sometimes, without getting more support than Geno's getting.

Now, let's look at Drew. His success rate puts him at about the same place as Kenny Pickett (so... not top 10). But, surprisingly, over our last 2 games, our Rushing success rate WAS actually top 10 (number 3 if we limit it to the Philly game).

No QB plays in a vacuum.

 

[12forlife]

It is a weird year to be fair - only 4 starting QBs currently have a rating of 100+ on the season, which in previous years you'd expect the top 10 all be in excess of that.

Statistically speaking I'd put Geno around 18th as far as QBs go this year, although also I think KWIII picking up a number of 1 yard TDs also doesn't show on Geno's stat sheet but they are team TDs that he is also responsible for. But we do know Geno has been playing through injury much of the year, behind a rotating O-line (the only times he's had our starting O-Line this year was the first half of first Rams game, and the Dallas game).

Purdy looked like shit when he was missing Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel for 3 games, with just 3 TDs against 5 INTS - comparably, in the other 11 games he has 26 TDs and 2 INTs - he's teetering on the brink of setting the single-season QB rating record, but if the whole team isn't available then he looks not just average, but stinks. Perhaps we can give Geno the same benefit of the doubt? I'm excited to see him Sunday with a full strength offense against a middle-of-the-road team, and see how much of a difference it really makes

How about I word it this way. You're the HOF Head coach of the Seahawks, earning $13mil. Are you hitching your wagon to Geno Smith??? I'm not.

 

[keasley45]

How about I word it this way. You're the HOF Head coach of the Seahawks, earning $13mil. Are you hitching your wagon to Geno Smith??? I'm not.

If Geno had the protection of a top 12 o line that surrenders less than 2 sacks a game and a rushing attack that churns out 120 yards a game, I'd be more than happy to hitch my wagon to Geno.

When he's had that, he's been lights out. Even without that and far far worse, he's middle of the pack.

 

[WarHawks]

Passionate about the team is normal. Passionate about two replacement level players, especially advancing arguments that one is great and the other sucks, is just abnormal.

Portraying my attitude as "gonna lose every week" is also a pretty lame attempt at an insult. Check my posts in the prediction thread. I've called most of the wins correctly and am 11-3 for the season. I called for them to beat the Eagles.

Then again, many here don't want accurate and honest discussion on where the team is and where it could go with the right moves. And that's fine. I don't flame and insult those people even though I disagree with their desired form of expressing their fandom.

I'll leave that to the pie-in-the-sky fans who want an Everything Is Awesome outlook.

Exactly. +1

 

[WarHawks]

If Geno had the protection of a top 12 o line that surrenders less than 2 sacks a game and a rushing attack that churns out 120 yards a game, I'd be more than happy to hitch my wagon to Geno.

When he's had that, he's been lights out. Even without that and far far worse, he's middle of the pack.

That's true for the most part. To me, Geno is like driving a 3/4 ton pickup truck with a six banger in it. Gets the job done ok on flat ground half the time, but when you tow something or need to pass someone on a hill, forget about it, unless it's another truck with a six banger. Why settle if we don't have to?

 

[keasley45]

That's true for the most part. To me, Geno is like driving a 3/4 ton pickup truck with a six banger in it. Gets the job done ok on flat ground half the time, but when you tow something or need to pass someone on a hill, forget about it, unless it's another truck with a six banger. Why settle if we don't have to?

What's the option right now?

 

[WarHawks]

What's the option right now?

I was referring to next year. Whatever happens this year happens.

 

[seahawks08]

He completed 66%

geno throws a lot of near picks. As a matter of fact all QBs throw near picks

Bone headed throws would mean he is either not reading the play right, has accuracy issues or going against what the coaches advise him. All of those can make a coach favor Geno over Drew.

 

[Rosco]

Bone headed throws would mean he is either not reading the play right, has accuracy issues or going against what the coaches advise him. All of those can make a coach favor Geno over Drew.

Or reverse. Geno should have 30+ picks based on your own opinion. Geno is no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.