Our SB winning formula is toast

[Uncle Si]

BINGO!

You can see how easy it is to ignore the basic truth that teams who succeed are paying their top players (especially the QB), and that's why they don't "succeed" for long.

The team does need to draft better.. (its folly to think they can replicate the early years of the PC/JS era as a formula... but whatever) but I think it's illogical to think they made a mistake with the Wilson contract. Some of the others... debatable I suppose. The group went all in and didnt get it done. I think there were far more mistakes made with players who were not the big stars.

The Harvin and Graham trades always irked me.. I get wanting to give RW weapons, but protection is what he needed. I have no issues with paying Bennett, Kam, ET and Sherman.

The Brown and Richardson trades were just desperately trying to plug holes that shouldve been fixed awhile ago.

 

[original poster]

You're welcome, and good.

I do agree on the drafting front but I don't think the teams drafting has been as bad as many will have you believe. I know they haven't drafted any pro bowlers outside of Tyler Lockett in a few years, but they've got a good chunk of impact players at the same time.

Frank Clark for example, is primed for the pro bowl next season. He's in a contract year. It's no easy position to be drafting this late in the last few drafts, with minimal first rounders and expect a stream of pro bowl talent.

 

[crosfam]

It would seem to me that Russell Wilson is essentially on a 2 year prove it deal. if the Hawks are not going anywhere, I think paying him 25+ million per year on a new contract would be prohibitive. At that point, we likely are need of a major rebuild and quite likely Pete Caroll would retire necessitating hiring a new coach who may or may not feel Wilson is his guy.

OK... five seconds later "Proven." I am sure we will see several contract restructurings over the 2nd half of Russ' HOF career. I would love two more SB trips, but I am fairly confident there will be at least one more in his career here.

 

[Seymour]

You're welcome, and good.

I do agree on the drafting front but I don't think the teams drafting has been as bad as many will have you believe. I know they haven't drafted any pro bowlers outside of Tyler Lockett in a few years, but they've got a good chunk of impact players at the same time.

Frank Clark for example, is primed for the pro bowl next season. He's in a contract year. It's no easy position to be drafting this late in the last few drafts, with minimal first rounders and expect a stream of pro bowl talent.

I think the key we won by is in general laymens terms is excellent play with cheap pay or what was the total savings over his value in todays market? Clark is one that may come close to getting near the 2010-2012 mark in value, McDowell could be another (but still looks unlilely to me), Griffen still could be another one too.

The 2013 scenario I laid out saved $68.7M in 5 roster spots to get enough $$ to fill in the roster to championship level. I don't have a magic number for todays team, but it's safe to say we need to do better and improve on drafting, and I think we all agree on that point.

One could also argue that may require change somewhere that we have yet to see. Be it scouting changes, or draft parameter changes (like ones that don't eliminate Elliot from our RB board), or even ....yes....GM /Head coach changes could all turn that around.

Also draft position being the main reason I would only say that it didn't stop 5 out of those 6 (everyone except Earl) from getting here.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

We no longer have a great defense. We have a very good defense. But you cannot expect to get to a SB with a very good defense and a very average offense. I don't see that changing overnight especially with our cap situation and our draft picks pretty much gone.

I would agree that 2018 is probably in the tank as far as a Super Bowl run (though of course the team will never, and shouldn't, admit that).

However, 2017 wasn't a very good defense and a very average offense. It was a good defense and a below average offense. An average run game and OL changes that with Wilson behind center. So there is that hope to ride on, as small as it may be.

 

[Uncle Si]

We no longer have a great defense. We have a very good defense. But you cannot expect to get to a SB with a very good defense and a very average offense. I don't see that changing overnight especially with our cap situation and our draft picks pretty much gone.

I would agree that 2018 is probably in the tank as far as a Super Bowl run (though of course the team will never, and shouldn't, admit that).

However, 2017 wasn't a very good defense and a very average offense. It was a good defense and a below average offense. An average run game and OL changes that with Wilson behind center. So there is that hope to ride on, as small as it may be.

The Eagles were 60-1 to win it at the start of last year... with Carson Wentz

 

[RCATES]

I've been saying this forever. We went all in this year and shit the bed. This team will be doing jack shit the next 3-5 years. At least we found out late in the year that even with decent O-Line play Wilson blows without a running game.

 

[WindCityHawk]

All of this presupposes we move into the draft--let alone next season--with the same team. We already have new coaches. We will likely go to work week 1 with Carson at RB. Watch for trades to collect draft capital and jettisoning contracts like Chancellor (and stop suggesting we ditch Bennett. He's still one of our most productive linemen for relatively little money. Don't pretend your concerns are financial).

In a league where the Jaguars can go from three wins to the conference championship, and a second-year coach can lift a Lombardi with a backup QB, I say be patient. The game is long, and look how much we've already changed since Christmas.

 

[mrt144]

I've been saying this forever. We went all in this year and shit the bed. This team will be doing jack shit the next 3-5 years. At least we found out late in the year that even with decent O-Line play Wilson blows without a running game.

This contributes nothing to the discussion and is repetitive and ignorant.

 

[Seymour]

All of this presupposes we move into the draft--let alone next season--with the same team. We already have new coaches. We will likely go to work week 1 with Carson at RB. Watch for trades to collect draft capital and jettisoning contracts like Chancellor (and stop suggesting we ditch Bennett. He's still one of our most productive linemen for relatively little money. Don't pretend your concerns are financial).

In a league where the Jaguars can go from three wins to the conference championship, and a second-year coach can lift a Lombardi with a backup QB, I say be patient. The game is long, and look how much we've already changed since Christmas.

Good reminder. So should we be on year 1 of our 2nd year coach then? :twisted:

Seriously though....those are exceptions more than rules about other ways of getting there, but at least it's some more reason for hope. :2thumbs:

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Oh brother, a fan said it would happen, so it must be so :roll:

 

[Seymour]

Oh brother, a fan said it would happen, so it must be so :roll:

Was that to this post or some other post?

I've been saying this forever. We went all in this year and shit the bed. This team will be doing jack shit the next 3-5 years. At least we found out late in the year that even with decent O-Line play Wilson blows without a running game.

Trying to spare you another "misunderstanding" rebuttal post is all.

 

[Uncle Si]

All of this presupposes we move into the draft--let alone next season--with the same team. We already have new coaches. We will likely go to work week 1 with Carson at RB. Watch for trades to collect draft capital and jettisoning contracts like Chancellor (and stop suggesting we ditch Bennett. He's still one of our most productive linemen for relatively little money. Don't pretend your concerns are financial).

In a league where the Jaguars can go from three wins to the conference championship, and a second-year coach can lift a Lombardi with a backup QB, I say be patient. The game is long, and look how much we've already changed since Christmas.

Good reminder. So should we be on year 1 of our 2nd year coach then? :twisted:

Seriously though....those are exceptions more than rules about other ways of getting there, but at least it's some more reason for hope. :2thumbs:

it is and isnt an exception though, right? I mean that's the point of the salary cap. Force successful teams to make difficult choices to even the playing field.

The Jaguars and Eagles are much closer to the Seahawks you hope for then the current Seahawks are. And once they get their success, they will have the same choices the Seahawks (and other teams that reach the pinnacle) have.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

It was towards the whole I told you so crap. :lol:
And he couldn't be more wrong. They won't be doing Jack Sh? Yeah right.

 

[Seymour]

There have been salary cap posts on here for over a decade. Yours isn’t new. The trend seems to be the need to manufacture hyperbolic emotion in them

“It’s toast!!!!”

Oh the madness of it all.

Drafting a whole bunch of future pro bowlers and maybe Hall of famers in a 3 year span is not a formula. It’s very very fortunate and rare.

Fair point on thread title, but to me our situation is alarming the more you look into it, so I used 1 alarming word....toast. I could have said broken, or found another way to make the point, but it is what it is I suppose.

On 2nd point of having to find another 6 pro bowlers. That is missing the mark if you read on. I'm not saying we have to do exactly that, there are other ways to save enough $$ in drafting to fill in the holes back to championship level with FA and trades then to rely on epic level of drafting over 3 years. 1 every other year or so over the last 5 may even have done enough. Point is, we need to do better or be good with watching other teams rise above us.

 

[Seymour]

All of this presupposes we move into the draft--let alone next season--with the same team. We already have new coaches. We will likely go to work week 1 with Carson at RB. Watch for trades to collect draft capital and jettisoning contracts like Chancellor (and stop suggesting we ditch Bennett. He's still one of our most productive linemen for relatively little money. Don't pretend your concerns are financial).

In a league where the Jaguars can go from three wins to the conference championship, and a second-year coach can lift a Lombardi with a backup QB, I say be patient. The game is long, and look how much we've already changed since Christmas.

Good reminder. So should we be on year 1 of our 2nd year coach then? :twisted:

Seriously though....those are exceptions more than rules about other ways of getting there, but at least it's some more reason for hope. :2thumbs:

it is and isnt an exception though, right? I mean that's the point of the salary cap. Force successful teams to make difficult choices to even the playing field.

The Jaguars and Eagles are much closer to the Seahawks you hope for then the current Seahawks are. And once they get their success, they will have the same choices the Seahawks (and other teams that reach the pinnacle) have.

I'd agree with that.
In 2010-2012 we were in rebuild mode. In 2013-2017 we were in maintain mode, and now in 2018-??? we are back or getting very close to rebuild mode because we did not hit enough picks to maintain the roster at championship level.
Maintain mode is where we lost our edge, and there is only one current great team we can look at to accomplish that....the beloved Patriots. ukeface:

 

[Uncle Si]

There have been salary cap posts on here for over a decade. Yours isn’t new. The trend seems to be the need to manufacture hyperbolic emotion in them

“It’s toast!!!!”

Oh the madness of it all.

Drafting a whole bunch of future pro bowlers and maybe Hall of famers in a 3 year span is not a formula. It’s very very fortunate and rare.

Fair point on thread title, but to me our situation is alarming the more you look into it, so I used 1 alarming word....toast. I could have said broken, or found another way to make the point, but it is what it is I suppose.

On 2nd point of having to find another 6 pro bowlers. That is missing the mark if you read on. I'm not saying we have to do exactly that, there are other ways to save enough $$ in drafting to fill in the holes back to championship level with FA and trades then to rely on epic level of drafting over 3 years. 1 every other year or so over the last 5 may even have done enough. Point is, we need to do better or be good with watching other teams rise above us.

This is absolutely correct and was especially important to this team in particular, especially because of the players they were paying

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The formula isn't toast, the FO stopped following the formula.

The formula was nasty young hungry cheap defense, physical ball control run game and dynamic QB that could run around and make plays when needed.

Now it's old expensive defense that isn't very hungry anymore, no run game and expensive QB that can still run around and make plays but now HAS to make plays or we lose.

So that's what Pete's doing, trying to get back to the right formula.

 

[Uncle Si]

The formula isn't toast, the FO stopped following the formula.

The formula was nasty young hungry cheap defense, physical ball control run game and dynamic QB that could run around and make plays when needed.

Now it's old expensive defense that isn't very hungry anymore, no run game and expensive QB that can still run around and make plays but now HAS to make plays or we lose.

So that's what Pete's doing, trying to get back to the right formula.

I agree with all except the "young and cheap" part. They were young and cheap because the team got really lucky in a few drafts.

That can't be the "formula"

Seymour is hitting the right point... the team's failures in recent drafts has left them little choice in who to keep now

 

[Sgt. Largent]

The formula isn't toast, the FO stopped following the formula.

The formula was nasty young hungry cheap defense, physical ball control run game and dynamic QB that could run around and make plays when needed.

Now it's old expensive defense that isn't very hungry anymore, no run game and expensive QB that can still run around and make plays but now HAS to make plays or we lose.

So that's what Pete's doing, trying to get back to the right formula.

I agree with all except the "young and cheap" part. They were young and cheap because the team got really lucky in a few drafts.

That can't be the "formula"

Seymour is hitting the right point... the team's failures in recent drafts has left them little choice in who to keep now

Maybe, I think John and especially Pete know how to draft defense..........it's why most of our draft picks after those amazing early drafts have succeeded on the defensive side of the ball, and not so much offensive.

So IMO we can get young again on defense, honestly I don't think we have a choice with Pete as coach. As I've said before, has there ever been a REALLY great old defense?

I mean, if the plan is to get back to basics and run the ball and play great D? Then continuing to spend money on aging vets and underperforming FA's is a recipe for more of the past three years.