Our SB winning formula is toast

[sdog1981]

The Steelers way, The patriot's way, (1980's) 49ers way, The Packer way, all of these teams had something in common in the way they worked the talent system. If we look at how these players play and how the game is played the Seahawk way was a young team with a master motivator coach who grew along with his players. The players are older now and know that "always compete" does not apply to many of them. For a Pete Carroll system to work I think he needs to stay young on defense and go older on offense. The Pete Carroll system still works on the NFL level for defense, even this past season with injuries and no pass rush the team still finished 11th in total defense. This "bad" Seahawks defense gave up 20.8 points per game good for 13th that is only 2.3 points per game from a top 5 finish. The System works Pete needs a daft like the 2017 DB's R Us, he needs to focuses the 2018 draft on the Dline and Oline. The system is in place to start to let these older players leave like the Patriots.

 

[AF_BASS_MAN]

The great teams adapt to their situation in order to sustain greatness. This is when we find out if we got lucky in the draft a while back, or if our front office actually knows what they are doing.

 

[Uncle Si]

Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?

 

[AF_BASS_MAN]

Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?

Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.

 

[hawxfreak]

I really think we should draft Griffin's brother, trade or cut sherm , { then go dline dline dline
I think the griffin boys together would spur each other on like no other tandem
Look , next years going to be tough no matter what but these are the days of tough decisions that if we don't make we are even more screwed
Were going to have to find a replacement for Earl sooner or later or make him the highest paid safety which he is worth but for how much longer ? 2 - 3 years tops , maybe less , who knows
Hope that Solari works I magic with our oline
Retain Mcdougald
Retain Coleman
Can we keep Graham ?
It'd sure make life easier to let him go but those TDs are highly valuable
Many more tough decisions to come

 

[Seymour]

So to some it up it boils down to drafting. Our formula is toast because we are not hitting enough good talent to bring the cap number down, then that gets us to FA where we have to spend to fill holes, or trades where we lose draft picks. Getting rid of Cable should help since he blew a ton or resource chasing his tail, but it goes beyond him too. Here is our RB's drafted over the last 6 years...all 13 of them.

This is good article that spells out our RB parameters, and those very parameters eliminate backs like Elliot. :shock:

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/1/8/16861916/seahawks-2018-draft-running-back

 

[Seymour]

Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?

Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.

He gets it. :2thumbs:

 

[NJlargent]

The great teams adapt to their situation in order to sustain greatness. This is when we find out if we got lucky in the draft a while back, or if our front office actually knows what they are doing.

I think the answer is we were lucky and it is pretty obvious.

 

[Uncle Si]

Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?

Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.

Which winning teams over the last 25 years (or from 1994 salary cap onset) have done that though? Which teams have won multiple Super Bowls without paying their stars and instead played their drafted replacements when the stars cost too much?

Patriots? Sure helps Brady makes 100% below market value. Who are the others? There are 5 other teams who have appeared in multiple Super Bowls since 1994 within 5 years of an appearance: Dallas, Denver (twice), Pittsburgh (went to 3 Super Bowls) the Giants and Seattle. It’s not a culture. It’s a QB and some other star players.

There is basically one way to sustain success in this league over the long haul and it involves the wife of your star player making 50 million a year. Everyone is scrambling to pay stars and mix in youth and role players.

And if the Seahawks had made that one play, these threads would have different titles.

 

[Seymour]

Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?

Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.

Which winning teams over the last 25 years (or from 1994 salary cap onset) have done that though? Which teams have won multiple Super Bowls without paying their stars and instead played their drafted replacements when the stars cost too much?

Patriots? Sure helps Brady makes 100% below market value. Who are the others? There are 5 other teams who have appeared in multiple Super Bowls since 1994 within 5 years of an appearance: Dallas, Denver (twice), Pittsburgh (went to 3 Super Bowls) the Giants and Seattle. It’s not a culture. It’s a QB and some other star players.

There is basically one way to sustain success in this league over the long haul and it involves the wife of your star player making 50 million a year. Everyone is scrambling to pay stars and mix in youth and role players.

And if the Seahawks had made that one play, these threads would have different titles.

Speaking of which, the play was probably a fairly close #2 reason for the decline behind the drafting. But we didn't make the play and the D didn't hold up their end so the threads will continue until the tide turns.

 

[Uncle Si]

There have been salary cap posts on here for over a decade. Yours isn’t new. The trend seems to be the need to manufacture hyperbolic emotion in them

“It’s toast!!!!”

Oh the madness of it all.

Drafting a whole bunch of future pro bowlers and maybe Hall of famers in a 3 year span is not a formula. It’s very very fortunate and rare.

 

[King Dog]

We're not gonna hit some drafts. Scotty McGloughlin is gone

 

[IndyHawk]

That 23-30 million @QB really helps that formula crash and burn.
I know it's not the only number that hurts but we have to start right there.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Is our Super bowl winning formula to draft a bunch of great players and pay them nothing? Why haven’t other teams tried this?

Winning teams sustain their culture by drafting their replacement and having them learn behind the elite talent.

If suddenly we can’t put a good product on the field when our roster changes, that is a big problem and falls on the GM and HC.

Which winning teams over the last 25 years (or from 1994 salary cap onset) have done that though? Which teams have won multiple Super Bowls without paying their stars and instead played their drafted replacements when the stars cost too much?

Patriots? Sure helps Brady makes 100% below market value. Who are the others? There are 5 other teams who have appeared in multiple Super Bowls since 1994 within 5 years of an appearance: Dallas, Denver (twice), Pittsburgh (went to 3 Super Bowls) the Giants and Seattle. It’s not a culture. It’s a QB and some other star players.

There is basically one way to sustain success in this league over the long haul and it involves the wife of your star player making 50 million a year. Everyone is scrambling to pay stars and mix in youth and role players.

And if the Seahawks had made that one play, these threads would have different titles.

BINGO!

 

[original poster]

Seymour have a look at the 2019 cap, it looks far brighter.

They went for it all in 2017 at the expense of 2018 and it didn’t work out.

Nobody on this planet would have been unhappy with it had it worked, and it very easily could have done if it wasn’t for a number of factors outside of their control.

I appreciate the upbeat post, but we go from 46 players under contract to 22 players under contract in 2019 and have lost draft picks due to poor moves (actually 19 players if you remove McDowell, Lane, Chancellor) I see that as a whole different problem, not necessarily better for building a winning team. Also, many of those left will be near their careers end.

We will have an average of $2.6M per player to fill those 31 spots to make the 53.

I'm going to estimate the 2019 salary cap at $190M.

22 players under contract already. leaving 29 roster spors that count against the cap to fill.

With that said, it's almost a given that the following won't be on the team in 2019 - Michael Bennett, Jeremy Lane, Kam Chancellor and Jon Ryan.

So actually, there's 18 players under contract, leaving 33 roster spots (not including the two free ones).

Assuming a cap space of $190M that leaves the team with a staggering $114M to build the team. That's a lot...

Dividing that up equally between all the players needing a roster spot makes it $3.45M per player, but obviously it doesn't work out like that.

Lets assume 5 drafted players make the team in 2018, 2 UDFA's and 6 drafted players in 2019 with, again, 2 UDFA's.

As a pretty accurate estimate, that'll cost the team about $12M in cap space for 2019. Now the team has 18 roster spots and $102M in cap space.

Dividing that up equally again, and thats $5.66M per player, looking a lot better now.

Obviously some of those will be vet minimum, lets say the Seahawks sign 4 vet minimums with 4-6 years experience and 1 with 7-9 years experience, that will cost the team exactly $4.075M.

Now the cap space is at $97,925,000.

Now thats $7.5M per player. 13 players earning $7.5M.

Player 1 gets - $4M
Player 2 gets $4M
Player 3 gets $4.5M
Player 4 gets $4.75M
Player 5 gets $5.25M
Player 6 gets $5.25M
Player 7 gets $6M
Player 8 gets $6.25M
Player 9 gets $8M
Player 10 gets $10.5M
Player 11 gets $10.5M
Player 12 gets $13M
Player 13 gets $16M


That would mean 7 players are earning over $10M a year, a fair amount of rookies some depth players are a good chunk of impact players.

That MUST make you feel better about the team going forwards.

I don't want people to think the Seahawks are in a downward trend due to their cap issues in 2018, the reality is, barring one single year, they are in a fantastic place to reload old talent and pay the existing rookies that are worthy and deserving of a second contract.

It's no mistake that John has all this cap space in 2019 and firms up my belief that they are in a 2 year plan to churn the roster and still put out a truly fantastic team in 2018, 2019 and beyond.

 

[pittpnthrs]

We're not gonna hit some drafts. Scotty McGloughlin is gone

Pretty much. Schneider's overrated.

 

[Steve2222]

It would seem to me that Russell Wilson is essentially on a 2 year prove it deal. if the Hawks are not going anywhere, I think paying him 25+ million per year on a new contract would be prohibitive. At that point, we likely are need of a major rebuild and quite likely Pete Caroll would retire necessitating hiring a new coach who may or may not feel Wilson is his guy.

Russell Wilson prove it deal? The guy was in the MVP conversation through week 15 until the whole team **** the bed. He’s legit the only reason we won 9 games. Quite frankly, with any QB outside of Rodgers, this team probably wins 2 or 3 games.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Couldn't help but laugh very loud when I read that. Prove it deal :roll:

 

[Seymour]

That 23-30 million @QB really helps that formula crash and burn.
I know it's not the only number that hurts but we have to start right there.

Agree. And I'm not even saying the way we built the 2013 roster is the only way though either. Hitting another QB in the draft that could replace Russell is a clear longshot. But the fact is, we need to hit enough to keep the cap down and have not done well enough the last 5 years to accomplish that as we now see.
In 2013 we had 5 players (more could be argued as well Kam was left out because of injury) we hit that saved the $68.7M in salary by today's standards.
Looking at our top stars we got excellent play and cheap pay, they all came in 3 years.

2010 Kam and Earl
2011 Sherman and Baldwin
2012 Wilson and Wagner

2013-2017 nobody.

That is a huge drop off from 6 in 3 to zero in the next 5, and not filling in top level roster spots costs you more and more $$ each year it doesn't happen. Now here we are overspending in FA and trades to fill in the roster.

Ya, the thread title is a bit alarming I'll admit, but I'm alarmed that I now think all indications are this team is down to 7-9 to 9-7 for the next 2 years at least unless we hit a couple of upper level talent picks in the draft. And using our winning formula that assembled the roster (what we do know), the better the player, the more $$ you saved.
Saving on mediocre starters saves less than half the $$, so hitting more of them takes double at best the qty to fill in the roster in FA and trades.

 

[Seymour]

Seymour have a look at the 2019 cap, it looks far brighter.

They went for it all in 2017 at the expense of 2018 and it didn’t work out.

Nobody on this planet would have been unhappy with it had it worked, and it very easily could have done if it wasn’t for a number of factors outside of their control.

I appreciate the upbeat post, but we go from 46 players under contract to 22 players under contract in 2019 and have lost draft picks due to poor moves (actually 19 players if you remove McDowell, Lane, Chancellor) I see that as a whole different problem, not necessarily better for building a winning team. Also, many of those left will be near their careers end.

We will have an average of $2.6M per player to fill those 31 spots to make the 53.

I'm going to estimate the 2019 salary cap at $190M.

22 players under contract already. leaving 29 roster spors that count against the cap to fill.

With that said, it's almost a given that the following won't be on the team in 2019 - Michael Bennett, Jeremy Lane, Kam Chancellor and Jon Ryan.

So actually, there's 18 players under contract, leaving 33 roster spots (not including the two free ones).

Assuming a cap space of $190M that leaves the team with a staggering $114M to build the team. That's a lot...

Dividing that up equally between all the players needing a roster spot makes it $3.45M per player, but obviously it doesn't work out like that.

Lets assume 5 drafted players make the team in 2018, 2 UDFA's and 6 drafted players in 2019 with, again, 2 UDFA's.

As a pretty accurate estimate, that'll cost the team about $12M in cap space for 2019. Now the team has 18 roster spots and $102M in cap space.

Dividing that up equally again, and thats $5.66M per player, looking a lot better now.

Obviously some of those will be vet minimum, lets say the Seahawks sign 4 vet minimums with 4-6 years experience and 1 with 7-9 years experience, that will cost the team exactly $4.075M.

Now the cap space is at $97,925,000.

Now thats $7.5M per player. 13 players earning $7.5M.

Player 1 gets - $4M
Player 2 gets $4M
Player 3 gets $4.5M
Player 4 gets $4.75M
Player 5 gets $5.25M
Player 6 gets $5.25M
Player 7 gets $6M
Player 8 gets $6.25M
Player 9 gets $8M
Player 10 gets $10.5M
Player 11 gets $10.5M
Player 12 gets $13M
Player 13 gets $16M


That would mean 7 players are earning over $10M a year, a fair amount of rookies some depth players are a good chunk of impact players.

That MUST make you feel better about the team going forwards.

I don't want people to think the Seahawks are in a downward trend due to their cap issues in 2018, the reality is, barring one single year, they are in a fantastic place to reload old talent and pay the existing rookies that are worthy and deserving of a second contract.

It's no mistake that John has all this cap space in 2019 and firms up my belief that they are in a 2 year plan to churn the roster and still put out a truly fantastic team in 2018, 2019 and beyond.

Excellent post and thank you for breaking that all down. Yes when you take the time to break it down, some advantages and scenarios are possible to find. Yes, to answer your point it does make me feel a bit better about 2019 with 1 exception. It still comes back to drafting well enough to fill in those 11 drafted and undrafted FA roster spots to work. To me, that would still be a big turn around over what I've seen in drafting the last 5 years, but I sure won't say impossible either. :2thumbs: